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The Sceptics thread.

JohnnyFlash

Starting this so non-believers in cryptocurrencies, and blockchain as a tech, can have a place to discuss why.

It has become apparent to me that getting involved in other threads is 'shítting on the parade' of investors in crypto. And that was never my intention. If you all end up loaded as a result of your investments, then more power to you.

However, there is another perspective on all this. Call it a cynical eye, call it begrudgery , call it fundamentally bearish.

I'd hope that this thread becomes a place where we can discuss these things in a manner that boards.ie has come to expect.

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JohnnyFlash

I'll get the ball rolling.

https://medium.com/@kaistinchcombe/decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec

Chancer3001

I think tether is the biggest elephant in the room.

Could ruin the investments for years if and when it hits the fan

SteelyDanJalapeno

What are your thoughts on trading crypto?

JohnnyFlash

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

What are your thoughts on trading crypto?

It’s fine if you see it for what it is: senseless gambling with long term prospects not good. EOS for example is valued more than SpaceX. One has launched rockets into space, the other is going to release some beta software in the next few weeks. That’s madness when you think about it.

JohnnyFlash

Chancer3001 wrote: »

I think tether is the biggest elephant in the room.

Could ruin the investments for years if and when it hits the fan

There’s days when tether trading makes up over 80% of the bitcoin market. Which is huge. There’s absolutely no new significant money going into crypto. Some people getting wiped out trying to short the market, but I presume they don’t come back after getting burned the 1st time. Bitfinex and tether literally run the crypto market at this stage. It’s an enormous fiasco in the making.

SteelyDanJalapeno

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

What are your thoughts on trading crypto?

It’s fine if you see it for what it is: senseless gambling with long term prospects not good. EOS for example is valued more than SpaceX. One has launched rockets into space, the other is going to release some beta software in the next few weeks. That’s madness when you think about it.

I disagree with your assessment on trading being senseless gambling with no good prospects, if you can read the charts anyway proficiently it's quite hard to lose money in this. The market the last year has been so very forgiving.

Your second point is irrelavant to my trading style and just copied from reddit so I'll go there and converse with that OP on that if I wanted to.

JohnnyFlash

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

I disagree with your assessment on trading being senseless gambling with no good prospects, if you can read the charts anyway proficiently it's quite hard to lose money in this. The market the last year has been so very forgiving.

Your second point is irrelavant to my trading style and just copied from reddit so I'll go there and converse with that OP on that if I wanted to.

Cool. What does your reading of the charts predict is going to happen this month? Most people lose money on crypto, so I’d be interested in how you are bucking the trend.

SteelyDanJalapeno

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

I disagree with your assessment on trading being senseless gambling with no good prospects, if you can read the charts anyway proficiently it's quite hard to lose money in this. The market the last year has been so very forgiving.

Your second point is irrelavant to my trading style and just copied from reddit so I'll go there and converse with that OP on that if I wanted to.

Cool. What does your reading of the charts predict is going to happen this month? Most people lose money on crypto, so I’d be interested in how you are bucking the trend.

It's quite difficult to predict the future in that sense imo. I wouldn't have the paddy losty skills. However I've very rarely lost a trade in the last 6 months buying the panics and selling the very predictable correction if you can understand these you will make a lot of money.

JohnnyFlash

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

It's quite difficult to predict the future in that sense imo. I wouldn't have the paddy losty skills. However I've very rarely lost a trade in the last 6 months buying the panics and selling the very predictable correction if you can understand these you will make a lot of money.

That’s not technical analysis or reading charts though. That’s buy the rumour and sell the news. Or pump and dump. Sure any Tom, Dick or Harry could do that.

SteelyDanJalapeno

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

That’s not technical analysis or reading charts though. That’s buy the rumour and sell the news. Or pump and dump. Sure any Tom, Dick or Harry could do that.

I was genuinely interested in having a conversation on this with you, but it's post like this that show your agenda.

I'll go back to making money, with the other Tom, Dick and Harrys

JohnnyFlash

How can you use charts to predict the price of something that is patently manipulated using wash trading, magic tether money, exchange insider trading, and every other scam that were banned in conventional money markets? Like if the guys in Tether/Bitfinex print more tether then the price of bitcoin will go up. You, I, or any chancer on Twitter/Telegram/TradingView don’t have that visability. Or can’t predict which exchange will be hacked next. It’s a mass of completely random variables.

LoLth

I think you need to revise your discussion style there Johnny. maybe a smidge less dismissive?

JohnnyFlash

LoLth wrote: »

I think you need to revise your discussion style there Johnny. maybe a smidge less dismissive?

No probs, boss. I wasn’t implying that the poster was a chancer, but can see how that could be interpreted. Sorry poster!!!

JohnnyFlash

http://uk.businessinsider.com/centre-for-evidence-based-managements-martin-walker-on-blockchain-2018-5?r=US&IR=T

The British Parliament Treasury Committee is told that Blockchain is a 'pixie dust fad' and its benefits in finance are 'little to nothing'.

You’d have to wonder if the dude has a point. Blockchain has been around for 10 years and has little to no usecases. Ripple don’t actually use blockchain or their token for their software solution There is pretty much no use case that isn’t better served using a distributed database.

Nermal

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

There is pretty much no use case that isn’t better served using a distributed database.

The article you posted is good, it's quite the demolition job on the fanciful 'applications' of blockchains.

There is only one application: censorship resistant money. But it's one that has a decent chance of changing the world.

JohnnyFlash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkXuFeN-KMw

This is the head honcho of EOS. Worth €15 billion.

Chancer3001

I've questions about litepay with litecoin

So you'll get a credit card to spend litecoin.

Ok

But how does this increase the price of litecoin?

People buy it . Load the card. Then sell it straight away ....

unkel

Good thread, good to get a bit of balance but also good to have it separate from other threads. Thanks for starting it, JohnnyFlash.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I'll get the ball rolling.

https://medium.com/@kaistinchcombe/decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec

Did you google the author?

Looks like he lost his patience trying unsuccessfully to convince his elderly customers to buy into crypto. Frustrated, he sold all his own crypto too and then turned into full sceptic

JohnnyFlash

Which part of his post did you disagree with most?

manu2009

Chancer3001 wrote: »

I've questions about litepay with litecoin

So you'll get a credit card to spend litecoin.

Ok

But how does this increase the price of litecoin?

People buy it . Load the card. Then sell it straight away ....

Litepay has ceased operation but their are companies who have created similar services so you can topup a debit card and use it to spend your crypto.

Their's currently a push towards blockchain banking where you can have a bank account that allows DD's, standing orders etc. and also have the ability to easily buy or sell crypto directly.

It's not about affecting the price of the coin, it's about offering new financial solutions and providing customers with more choice and less scrutiny than traditional banks, for example a bank account closed for being connected with crypto transactions.

Chancer3001

Yeah so everyone who s saying buy litecoin , it'll do unreal when it gets litepay ... They're totally misguided

JohnnyFlash

https://www.wired.com/story/when-the-blockchain-skeptic-walked-into-the-lions-den/

Great article about some dude at the Consensus conference pouring cold water on the need for blockchain in the vast majority of use cases being pitched at the moment.

grindle

Raise your standards for "great articles" - having watched it live, Song came across as a petulant child who wasn't getting his lollipop. He's right about the magical blockchain dust but his analogy about every single idea whether he's analysed it or not (likely not based on the debate) being a hammer looking for a nail is off the mark.
Odd choice of BTC shill tbh, he's fúcked up numerous debates - they should have tried for Andreas. Maybe they did but he didn't care.
I presume you're aware Jimmy Song is a Bitcoin maximalist? His main concern which he's repeated ad nauseam is that every other project's valuation is a value that's been stolen or siphoned from his BTC coffers.
He's that simple.

JohnnyFlash

grindle wrote: »

Raise your standards for "great articles" - having watched it live, Song came across as a petulant child who wasn't getting his lollipop. He's right about the magical blockchain dust but his analogy about every single idea whether he's analysed it or not (likely not based on the debate) being a hammer looking for a nail is off the mark.
Odd choice of BTC shill tbh, he's fúcked up numerous debates - they should have tried for Andreas. Maybe they did but he didn't care.
I presume you're aware Jimmy Song is a Bitcoin maximalist? His main concern which he's repeated ad nauseam is that every other project's valuation is a value that's been stolen or siphoned from his BTC coffers.
He's that simple.

I read that he was a maximalist. Which is even more propesterous an ideology than most other crypto advocates. Bitcoin hasn’t a single compelling use case, and is a disaster for the environment. I would agree with his assessment though that most ICO and blockchain startups will be gone in 5 years. It’s a cumbersome and inefficient technology with almost no use cases that can’t be handled better with other technologies. I mean blockchain and GDPR are fundamentally at odds with each other.

grindle

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

...blockchain and GDPR are fundamentally at odds with each other.

This is one thing zero-knowledge proofs will help to fix. Data needn't be public and GDPR laws can be adhered to with destruction of keys. GDPR is an interesting obstacle for blockchain, I wouldn't see it as being fundamentally at odds - GDPR is a section of law rather than some opposing worldview vs blockchain.

I'd also agree that most will fold in 5 years. It's true of the average business, never mind a hyper-speculative system like crypto.

For all the downsides to BTC it does have at least one use case in that it's the most secure public record of account on earth. Whether that's useful or not is up to the potential buyers, but despite your scepticism re: exchanges, there's certainly a lot of action happening on the OTC markets:

Whatever about his prediction there's money flowing in, just not through our plebby exchange channels.

JohnnyFlash

What’s up with Bitfinex and Tether? Phil Potter has left Tether, Whalepool have asked their members to stop using it because of new know your customer regulations, Tether printed another quarter of a billion dollars, but their daily volume is just about level with their market cap. It was up to more that 2 times that just a few weeks ago. Binance are still enthusiastic users, but have tapered off slightly. And anothwe big user of Tether, OKex, has announced they’ve stopped fiat withdrawals.

Confused. Something funny is happening, but I can’t quite work it out. Wish Bitfinex’d was still tweeting. Had a great insight into them.

makeorbrake

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Bitcoin hasn’t a single compelling use case,

So are this bank wasting their time in their real world application of bitcoin?

That's just one example....that exists because SWIFT is downright criminal.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

.. and is a disaster for the environment.

Firstly, by comparison with visa (inclusive of ALL costs)? Secondly, as LN usage increases, comsumption on a per-transaction basis goes down.
LINK

Other than that, if electricity consumption is still an issue for you, there are some up and coming crypto's that are PoS based rather than PoW - with little in the way of electricity consumption....but then you have summarily dismissed all altcoins....

sexmag

http://www.businessinsider.com/lmax-exchange-launches-cryptocurrency-exchange-for-institutional-investors-2018-5?r=UK&IR=T

There's is potentionally a massive influx of new money coming (which is something johnny constantly contests about)

I feel the current drop is the whales manipulation of the market to get back in at lower prices before the new money comes in and brings everything up again.

It's been said for the last 6 months that banks and hedge funds etc are coming and it seems sooner rasther than later

JohnnyFlash

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe

U.S. Launches Criminal Probe into Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Stoko

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-24/bitcoin-manipulation-is-said-to-be-focus-of-u-s-criminal-probe

U.S. Launches Criminal Probe into Bitcoin Price Manipulation

is that not just another manipulation of the market?
the masses get worried, sell happens etc..