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UFC/MMA LOG 2018

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2016 Total staked 2111/ret 2044.43/-66.57
2017 Total staked 2243/ret 2766.28/+523.28

I won't have a clue how I'm getting on without a log as It's too much hassle and I don't have the same discipline so to keep myself honest...

Good start to the year having backed stephens but lost a lot more on ngannou, either way it's starts here.
I can't imagine I'll have a year as good as last year but I'll certainly try.

Bet 1

Brunson evens
35
888 (11/10 available but a free bet with this made it more worthwhile)

Minute I saw this I was thinking brunson, he's improved a lot since these last met and is on a bit of a roll. (1st round ko for souza)

Souza has been off since being pummelled by whittaker and has had surgery also which probably isn't a big deal for an athlete of souza's calibre.
This is happening in brunson's backyard so he'll be eager to atone that loss and if he doesn't do something stupid (1st fight or v whittaker) I think he can take this...just needs to be a little bit more patient at times is all.
If he goes out there trying to take the head off souza in the first minute it might not be his night.

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BET 24

Rose Namajunas 11/10
20

rose by ko 5/1
6

skybet

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BET 25

holloway 4/1
16

holloway and rose 9/1
4
betstars

It's a big ask for holloway at short notice but 4/1 is an insult and it's a price
I have to take

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Bet 26

Lauzon sub 11/4
7
Skyb

Lauzon sub rnd 1 8/1
2

Khabib ko/tko rnd 1 6/1
2

Rose Ko rnd 1 14//1
2

50c trixie 7s 9/2 14s
Skybet

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Bet 27

Poirier ko 7/4
25

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 24

Rose Namajunas 11/10
20

rose by ko 5/1
6

skybet

rose on points
staked 26
ret 42
+16

mailburner wrote: »

BET 25

holloway 4/1 void
16

holloway and rose 9/1
4
betstars

It's a big ask for holloway at short notice but 4/1 is an insult and it's a price
I have to take

double becomes a single on rose at evens with max out
staked 4
ret 8
+4

mailburner wrote: »

Bet 26

Lauzon sub 11/4
7
Skyb

Lauzon sub rnd 1 8/1
2

Khabib ko/tko rnd 1 6/1
2

Rose Ko rnd 1 14//1
2

50c trixie 7s 9/2 14s
Skybet

last time I ever back joe.
-15

mailburner wrote: »

Bet 27

Poirier ko 7/4
25

staked 25
ret 68.75
+43.75

staked 70/ret 118.75/+48.75

Total staked 342/ret 388.21/+46.21

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BET 27

Edson Barboza 13/10
20
888

I like the price too much to leave it, 50/50 match for me
I think if Lee doesn't get it done in the first two barboza wins for me and if Lee doesn't get barboza to the mat I think he'll come out second best standing.

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BET 28

barboza ko/tko 7/2
5
coral

santos round one 5/2
5

sherman by ko 7/1
4

1 treble at 7/2 5/2 11/4
skyb

plan was the edgar santos double but I can't seem to pull the trigger for some reason.
sherman is overpriced for me and if barboza gets it done I think it's by ko maybe late in the fight
santos will come out blazing as per usual and could get the early ko.

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 27

Edson Barboza 13/10
20
888

I like the price too much to leave it, 50/50 match for me
I think if Lee doesn't get it done in the first two barboza wins for me and if Lee doesn't get barboza to the mat I think he'll come out second best standing.

edson had his chance but apart from the it was total domination by Lee
-20

mailburner wrote: »

BET 28

barboza ko/tko 7/2
5
coral

santos round one 5/2
5

sherman by ko 7/1
4

1 treble at 7/2 5/2 11/4
skyb

plan was the edgar santos double but I can't seem to pull the trigger for some reason.
sherman is overpriced for me and if barboza gets it done I think it's by ko maybe late in the fight
santos will come out blazing as per usual and could get the early ko.

-15
Dodged a bullet with santos, not even close with the rest.

-35 overall

Total staked 377/ret 388.21/+11.21

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BET 29

Total stake:
€50.00
Total odds:
1.67
Potential Returns:
€83.50
Bout Odds: Mir, Frank
Emelianenko, Fedor - Mir, Frank
UFC/MMA
Bellator
Tomorrow 02:00
Bout Odds
Mir, Frank
1.67

can't see past Mir here

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 29

Total stake:
€50.00
Total odds:
1.67
Potential Returns:
€83.50
Bout Odds: Mir, Frank
Emelianenko, Fedor - Mir, Frank
UFC/MMA
Bellator
Tomorrow 02:00
Bout Odds
Mir, Frank
1.67

can't see past Mir here

what a useless has been, sad that he couldn't beat fedor

Total staked 427/ret 388.21/-38.79

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BET 30

Oleynik by sub 7/2
7
skybet

souza by sub 11/4
10 skybet

3 double 7/2+5/2
skybet (won't let you double an enhanced price..souza)

albini over rated for me, oleynik has 43 sub wins....souza is a master on the ground and I think this price is too generous...gastelum is good but falls
short for me against the tops guys

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BET 31

bader pts 5/6
machida belfort not to go the distance 8/15
13

same two with souza sub and oleynike sub
2
skybet

bader and mo cancel each other, very surprised if there was a finish here and bader much better standing, should be as exciting as watching paint dry

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BET 32

nearly didn't bother

moreno
laprise luque not to go the distance
11/5
7
888

same two with suarez and prazeres
3 returns 26.58

lastly a freebet which I wouldn't have placed only for that, not adding to log win or lose

very tempted by the suarez sub though, pts sticks out like a sore thumb as she'll probably ride grasso for three but odds of 4/6 or so compared to around 5/2 for the sub I find tempting

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BET 33

€1.00 Accumulator
Market Selection Price Hcp
Macedo v Lee
Method Of Victory
Lee, Andrea Submission 9/2
Grasso v Suarez
Method Of Victory
Suarez, Tatiana Submission 11/4
Pantoja v Moreno
Method Of Victory
Moreno, Brandon Points 15/8
Cummings v Prazeres
Method Of Victory
Prazeres, Michel Points 3/1
Total stake € 1.00
Estimated return € 237.19

Macedo v Lee
Method Of Victory
Lee, Andrea Submission 9/2
Total stake € 5.00
Estimated return € 27.50
betfred

maybe a bit of value in the lee sub

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BET 34

amirkhani/taleb 2/1
16
bet365

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BET 35

amirkhani sub 12/1
5
pp

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BET 36

till v thom

fight to go the distance and timeout in the fight 5/1
5
pp

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BET 37

till 13/10
10
365

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mailburner wrote: »

BET 30

Oleynik by sub 7/2
7
skybet

souza by sub 11/4
10 skybet

3 double 7/2+5/2
skybet (won't let you double an enhanced price..souza)

albini over rated for me, oleynik has 43 sub wins....souza is a master on the ground and I think this price is too generous...gastelum is good but falls
short for me against the tops guys

oleynik gets the sub, souza didn't

staked 20
ret 31.50
+11.50

mailburner wrote: »

BET 31

bader pts 5/6
machida belfort not to go the distance 8/15
13

same two with souza sub and oleynike sub
2
skybet

bader and mo cancel each other, very surprised if there was a finish here and bader much better standing, should be as exciting as watching paint dry

-15

mailburner wrote: »

BET 32

nearly didn't bother

moreno
laprise luque not to go the distance
11/5
7
888

same two with suarez and prazeres
3 returns 26.58

lastly a freebet which I wouldn't have placed only for that, not adding to log win or lose

very tempted by the suarez sub though, pts sticks out like a sore thumb as she'll probably ride grasso for three but odds of 4/6 or so compared to around 5/2 for the sub I find tempting

moreno cost me a clean sweep here
-10

mailburner wrote: »

BET 33

€1.00 Accumulator
Market Selection Price Hcp
Macedo v Lee
Method Of Victory
Lee, Andrea Submission 9/2
Grasso v Suarez
Method Of Victory
Suarez, Tatiana Submission 11/4
Pantoja v Moreno
Method Of Victory
Moreno, Brandon Points 15/8
Cummings v Prazeres
Method Of Victory
Prazeres, Michel Points 3/1
Total stake € 1.00
Estimated return € 237.19

Macedo v Lee
Method Of Victory
Lee, Andrea Submission 9/2
Total stake € 5.00
Estimated return € 27.50
betfred

maybe a bit of value in the lee sub

-6

mailburner wrote: »

BET 34

amirkhani/taleb 2/1
16
bet365

thought taleb was a cert
-16

mailburner wrote: »

BET 35

amirkhani sub 12/1
5
pp

-5

mailburner wrote: »

BET 36

till v thom

fight to go the distance and timeout in the fight 5/1
5
pp

staked 5
ret 30
+25

mailburner wrote: »

BET 37

till 13/10
10
365

staked 10
ret 23
+13

staked 87/ret 84.50/-2.50

Total staked 514/472.71/-41.29

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BET 38

Fancy rda since this match was made, think he's better standing and can match cc everywhere else
not sure about it going the distance but when rda is over double the cc price I just can't resist

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BET 39

guida 5/4
10

lamas 2/1
10

lamas ko/sub 9/2
rda pts 5/1
benavidez pts 21/20
1 trixie
bet 365

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BET 40

€12.00 Treble
Market Selection Price Hcp
Benavidez v Pettis
Fight
Benavidez, Joseph 4/9
Arlovski v Tuivasa
Fight
Tuivasa, Tai 4/11
Holm v Anderson
Will The Fight Go The Distance
Yes 2/5
Total stake € 12.00
Estimated return € 33.09
betfred

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BET 41

Guida 6/5
10

guida sub 10/1
3
fred

gut says he won't lose in his back yard

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all losers above
-81

Total staked 595/472.71/-122.29

Bet 42

zuniga at 11/8 to beat gunther (skybet)

In all the years I've seen tuf I can't recall anyone as bad as gunter, surely zuniga can take him

mitchell diamond over 2.5 rounds
gianetti
double
1.96/1 skyb
15

zuniga 11/8
20
skyb

zuniga pts 4s
gianetti sub 15/8
diamond pts 5/2
2 treble

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BET 43

can't buy a winner here lately

felder points 5/2
cormier points 5/1
5.66 double skybet (118.86 ret...max allowed yet only wanted 6eu)

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BET 44

JDS/Price
6 @ 3.16

to go the distance
mendes jury
zingano reneau
wineland alejandro
4@4.12

ottow sub 7/1
4
price sub 7/1
2
2 double

treble with zingano pts
1@175/1

price round two
ottow round two
1 @ 124/1

all 888

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BET 45

Treble
Marcin Tybura @ 1.44
Fight Winner

Marcin Tybura vs Stefan Struve

Anthony Smith @ 1.53
Fight Winner

Anthony Smith vs Mauricio Rua

Yes @ 1.53
Fight to go the Distance?

Nick Hein vs Damir Hadzovic

1 Bet x €10.00 @ 3.40

Stake: €10.00
Returns: €33.96
betstars

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BET 46

29 Jul 2018 - Jose Aldo v Jeremy Stephens - Bout Betting

Jose Aldo @ EVS

Stake : €100.00

Estimated Returns : €200.00
hills

far too confident, only went 100 once before, price seems insane value besides.
aldo a far superior fighter to js imo

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mailburner wrote: »

all losers above
-81

Total staked 595/472.71/-122.29

Bet 42

zuniga at 11/8 to beat gunther (skybet)

In all the years I've seen tuf I can't recall anyone as bad as gunter, surely zuniga can take him

mitchell diamond over 2.5 rounds
gianetti
double
1.96/1 skyb
15

zuniga 11/8
20
skyb

zuniga pts 4s
gianetti sub 15/8
diamond pts 5/2
2 treble

zuniga just plain useless
-37

mailburner wrote: »

BET 43

can't buy a winner here lately

felder points 5/2
cormier points 5/1
5.66 double skybet (118.86 ret...max allowed yet only wanted 6eu)

-5.66

mailburner wrote: »

BET 44

JDS/Price
6 @ 3.16

to go the distance
mendes jury
zingano reneau
wineland alejandro
4@4.12

ottow sub 7/1
4
price sub 7/1
2
2 double

treble with zingano pts
1@175/1

price round two
ottow round two
1 @ 124/1

all 888

double lands, rest bad
staked 20
ret 18.96
-1.04

mailburner wrote: »

BET 45

Treble
Marcin Tybura @ 1.44
Fight Winner

Marcin Tybura vs Stefan Struve

Anthony Smith @ 1.53
Fight Winner

Anthony Smith vs Mauricio Rua

Yes @ 1.53
Fight to go the Distance?

Nick Hein vs Damir Hadzovic

1 Bet x €10.00 @ 3.40

Stake: €10.00
Returns: €33.96
betstars

easy for a change
staked 10
ret 33.96
+23.96

mailburner wrote: »

BET 46

29 Jul 2018 - Jose Aldo v Jeremy Stephens - Bout Betting

Jose Aldo @ EVS

Stake : €100.00

Estimated Returns : €200.00
hills

far too confident, only went 100 once before, price seems insane value besides.
aldo a far superior fighter to js imo

incredible price on aldo, no idea how js was fav for that one
The aldo ko was a massive 12/1, was pretty sure myself he'd win on pts but that price was too big and one that should have been taken for value alone.

staked 100
ret 200
+100

staked 172.66/ret 252.92/+80.26

Total staked 767.66/ret 725.63/-42.03

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BET 47

tj v cody

It's been the plan for weeks to back tj and was taking the 10/11 earlier but best now at 5/6
also think this won't go the distance and that the under 3.5 rounds at 4/5 looks a safer bet, rarely change my mind but on this occasion I don't think I'll regret it and some are 4/7 on this
I thing the rounds bet is less of a coin toss than picking the actual winner.

Under 3.5
Total Rounds 4
Cody Garbrandt v TJ Dillashaw
Odds 4/5
Unit Stake £50.00
Total Stake £50.00
Est. Returns £90.00
coral

and this...only wanted 3 euro on it so 1.71 it is