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Summer 2018 - General Discussion

SNNUS

It's very far off but no harm to have a thread regarding the Weather for the Summer. Hopefully it will not all be in May as usual.

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sryanbruen

I have completed the table now and it seems the best of those years in the table (have to have minimum 5 elements) are those here in this analogues below I have made.

Summer overall shows a big block over Scandinavia sending in very warm southeasterlies. Very hot looking reanalysis there! I'm amazed here of how different this one is to anything we've seen so far. Of course, you'll get Summers that deviate there like 2008, 1986 and 1963.

Junes of these Summers shows a very similar scenario to the Summer reanalysis:

Julys of these Summers show an anticyclonic scenario dragging in warm air with the jet stream on a northerly track. Seems a lot like July 2013! (July 2013 is in the reanalysis also)

Augusts of these Summers show a big block to the northeast with a deep trough over us meaning a rapid deterioration into very unsettled conditions. However, maybe not overly cold as the air is being dragged up from a southeasterly direction. Might be very humid at times, kind of like August 1997; very wet and hot.

Interesting!

Artane2002

I'd be even happier if the August analogue is swapped with July, that way I can make the most of the potential good weather. I know it's unlikely to verify but it would still be nice to see!

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'd be even happier if the August analogue is swapped with July, that way I can make the most of the potential good weather. I know it's unlikely to verify but it would still be nice to see!

I think a repeat of August 1997 would be one of the last things we need (mixed with hot and humid nights making sleeping difficult)

A very very different set of analogues there compared to anything I've done and easily the best.

sryanbruen

For your interest MidMan25, here's a reanalysis of Summers in years where Easter Sunday fell on April 1st.

The record is broken again. Northern blocking, deep trough over us, jet stream on a southerly track. Cold, wet Summer conditions!

Graces7

Let a REAL expert have a say

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/famous-donegal-postman-reveals-his-summer-weather-predictions-36844196.html

sryanbruen

Just for anyone who was curious about Summers following February SSW events. Eh yeah, I think you would have preferred me to not show this

, deep trough over top of us and the jet stream going very southerly. So very cold and wet.

Notice how 1966 appears here, the year of the exceptionally wet April of 1966 which also had an extraordinary cold snap for the time of year.

sryanbruen

Looking at 1959 - which had 4 of my elements so was one off being considered for the analogues I posted above - it is quite a good year to be comparing with 2018 here for the Summer.

March/April 1959 were similar to March/April 2018. Both had the wettest of the conditions to the south and were wet months. They were dull months. April 1959 and 2018 are both mild (even though April 2018 may not feel like it). One difference is that March 1959 was mild unlike March 2018.

If you do not know what Summer 1959 was like. It was very long just like 1949 ten years before hand. It contained lots of sunshine with low relative humidity. June and September 1959 were among their sunniest respective months on record. It was an excellent Summer.

sryanbruen

I mentioned in the FI Charts thread that this may have been the dullest start to the Spring since 1992 (May 1992 was a massive improvement on March/April that year with it being one of the warmest on record). Whilst 1992 is not a year that has many of the elements we've been looking at in these analogues, it's interesting how similarly dull both March/April combinations are and that Summer 1992 is very similar to what the majority of analogues show! Summer 1992 if you do not know about it started off very good with a warm, dry and sunny June. It was the warmest June at this time since 1976. This month contained a long dry spell mid-month with barely any rainfall recorded. July started off warm and dry but then deteriorated into dull and cool conditions. August 1992 was a very wet and cold but sunny month.

Reanalysis for Spring 1992 shows a ridge to the south with a deep low over Greenland bringing the westerlies through resulting in a very dull and wet season. The trough would be closer to over us if I did not include May 1992 in this.

Reanalysis for Summer 1992 shows a lot of below average heights in the Atlantic with an area of high pressure to the east of Europe. This reanalysis like Spring one doesn't tell the whole story as Spring was back loaded whilst Summer was front loaded.

Hopefully that as we have this constant area of high pressure to the east a lot of the time, it means good news for the Summer. With the weaker zonal flow through the Summer season, the wave pattern retrogrades.

Regardless of what the majority of the analogues say, there's always exceptions and there's always hope for the Summer so don't give up.

sryanbruen

Outlooks show a very warm May for 2018 here so here's the reanalysis of Summers following the warmest Mays on record. Very bad 500mb height anomaly with a deep trough over us and the jet stream on a southerly track..... very similar yet again to the majority of the analogues!

Keep in mind the exceptions though. The exceptions in this one are as follows:

1989 - hottest July of the 20th century with a rather warm June too.
1999 - very warm and sunny July.
1990 - warm, dry and sunny July with a long drought spell into August. Hottest day of the century in Dublin (August 2nd).
2016 - dull but warm Summer. Fairly wet June but mostly dry July and mixed August. Of course, the warmth continued into September.
1959 - sunniest Summer on record including among the driest Junes and Septembers on record.
1970 - very sunny and warm June.
2014 - warm and sunny June/July though a very cool and wet August.
1947 - becoming very warm in August. Among the best Augusts of the 20th century.

Also, I could not fit all the warmest Mays on record into the reanalysis because the composite only goes back to 1948. If I could, the years 1919, 1911, 1918 and 1940 would be in there.

Summer 1919 was relatively poor but some warm weather in August. 1918 was decent with nice spells in each of the months but not a classic. 1911 was excellent with a prolonged Summer from May to October (1912 was the polar opposite with a prolonged Autumn including the coldest, wettest and dullest August on record along with the second coldest September of the century and the wettest Summer on record). 1940 was a mixed Summer with a very sunny and dry June (the sunniest on record at Valentia Observatory) and a very dry but cool August whilst July was very wet and cool.

2008 and 2001, two of the most common years to appear in the analogues here (see my analogues with at least 5 of the elements I posted above), crop up again in the very warm Mays.

I may look at Mays with very positive NAO indexes next because this May so far is very notable for positive NAO with only two instances of such since 1997 from off the top of my head to this level of positivity: 2009 and 2015. 2009 appeared in the very warm Mays above though May 2015 was a very cool and wet month in contrast.

johndeere3350

Anyone want to trow there hat into the ring for a summer weather prediction?
Make sure its good after all this rain we need it.

sryanbruen

This reanalysis is on positive NAO first halves to May (1st-15th). I could not fit in one more year to the composite and the year missing was 1956 - which was an appalling Summer especially August.

Very bad reanalysis with low pressure all over Europe! A likely feature why troughing is so deep over much of south and east Europe is because 1976 is included here which had troughing of such and of course in Ireland, was a scorcher of a Summer (no exaggeration, we turned literally into a desert by that stage 'til the Autumn came along and gave us a good soaker).

Summer 2013 is in there too and 2013 is the only year to appear here in the reanalysis that has at least 5 of the elements we have used which is interesting. Then again, the daily NAO data only goes back to 1950 so is not quite a fair comparison to years like 1876 and 1934.

I'm likely to do Springs that have a cold March followed by a warm April/May next.

Artane2002

To be honest, I see a tiny bit of potential in that setup. The troughs could drag up warm southerlies from time to time if positioned in the correct place. The Mediterranean low is a good feature to have if a Scandi High sets up.

I'm just trying to turn negatives into positives here

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

To be honest, I see a tiny bit of potential in that setup. The troughs could drag up warm southerlies from time to time if positioned in the correct place. The Mediterranean low is a good feature to have if a Scandi High sets up.

I'm just trying to turn negatives into positives here

I guess you could say that there's a chance of a Scandi High on that reanalysis given the below average heights around Scandinavia are quite weak in nature but if they were above average, I'd think it would be similar to the August reanalysis for Summers with at least 5 of the elements which is very hot and wet, not pleasant.

You'll be surprised of how mixed my forecast is going to be, it's not going to be all negative as you'd probably expect.

sryanbruen

Ok so here's the reanalysis charts for Summers following Springs with a cold March, a warm April and May.

The overall Summer reanalysis shows a block of high pressure to the northwest of Ireland with the mean wind direction from a northeasterly or so direction which translates to cool conditions. However, as the high pressure is close to Ireland, perhaps sunnier than average, particularly in the west and not all that wet. Much worse of a chart for England than Ireland for Summer weather.

The Junes actually look anticyclonic generally with an area of high pressure to the southwest of Ireland and ridging to us. As the above average heights are sort of weak over us, it means that there'd be the possibility of low pressure invading from the northwest from time to time. However, a very nice chart to start us off with plenty of dry conditions.

The Julys however go a different way to the Junes. Jet stream on a very southerly track with low pressure over top of us. Looks very cool and fairly wet.

The Augusts look anticyclonic especially to the west, if rather cool as the wind direction seems to be from the northeast. Sort of similar to the overall Summer reanalysis but the high is even closer to Ireland.

Four classic summers appear here in these analogues, 2006, 1995, 1947 and 1868. 1947 is one of the years that contain at least 5 of the elements of course (and the only one to be so in this analogue).

Definitely not the worst set we've seen here.

Periscal

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ok so here's the reanalysis charts for Summers following Springs with a cold March, a warm April and May.

The overall Summer reanalysis shows a block of high pressure to the northwest of Ireland with the mean wind direction from a northeasterly or so direction which translates to cool conditions. However, as the high pressure is close to Ireland, perhaps sunnier than average, particularly in the west and not all that wet. Much worse of a chart for England than Ireland for Summer weather.

The Junes actually look anticyclonic generally with an area of high pressure to the southwest of Ireland and ridging to us. As the above average heights are sort of weak over us, it means that there'd be the possibility of low pressure invading from the northwest from time to time. However, a very nice chart to start us off with plenty of dry conditions.

The Julys however go a different way to the Junes. Jet stream on a very southerly track with low pressure over top of us. Looks very cool and fairly wet.

The Augusts look anticyclonic especially to the west, if rather cool as the wind direction seems to be from the northeast. Sort of similar to the overall Summer reanalysis but the high is even closer to Ireland.

Four classic summers appear here in these analogues, 2006, 1995, 1947 and 1868. 1947 is one of the years that contain at least 5 of the elements of course (and the only one to be so in this analogue).

Definitely not the worst set we've seen here.

Why did you not use 1996 as an analogue? It had low solar activity,weak LA Nina trending neutral and also strong -QBO

sryanbruen

Periscal wrote: »

Why did you not use 1996 as an analogue? It had low solar activity,weak LA Nina trending neutral and also strong -QBO

I have been, look back through the thread. 1996 is one of the best years. For this particular one, it did not qualify because whilst March was cold and April was mild that year, May was cold and not warm.

sryanbruen

For what it's worth, the UK Met Office Glosea5 model is showing a fairly warm and dry Summer with an area of high pressure to the east over Scandinavia. Looks similar to 1996 in some ways.

Periscal

sryanbruen wrote: »

Periscal wrote: »

Why did you not use 1996 as an analogue? It had low solar activity,weak LA Nina trending neutral and also strong -QBO

I have been, look back through the thread. 1996 is one of the best years. For this particular one, it did not qualify because whilst March was cold and April was mild that year, May was cold and not warm.

OK,are u sure May will end warm? To me even warm April is a bit of a stretch as it was saved by mild nights, I would say 1996 and 2006 are both very good analogues and hope that we end with similar outcome,also I hope that continental Europe gets enough rain as already it has been incredibly dry and warm like July,with stations recording 22 degrees mean in in Slovakia for May so far! Crazy

Periscal

sryanbruen wrote: »

Periscal wrote: »

Why did you not use 1996 as an analogue? It had low solar activity,weak LA Nina trending neutral and also strong -QBO

I have been, look back through the thread. 1996 is one of the best years. For this particular one, it did not qualify because whilst March was cold and April was mild that year, May was cold and not warm.

sryanbruen

Periscal wrote: »

OK,are u sure May will end warm? To me even warm April is a bit of a stretch as it was saved by mild nights, I would say 1996 and 2006 are both very good analogues and hope that we end with similar outcome,also I hope that continental Europe gets enough rain as already it has been incredibly dry and warm like July,with stations recording 22 degrees mean in in Slovakia for May so far! Crazy

May is already warmer than average (though closer to average in Ireland than the UK) and there is no cool outlook in store bar a little blip tomorrow and up to Friday (see the models for instance), just very settled and relatively warm with the potential for one or two "very warm" intervals.

The years that have been very good analogues for me using the methodology are 1876, 1911, 1934, 1947, 1959, 1963, 1969, 1975, 1986, 1996, 2001, 2008 and 2013. Many of these are very good Summers.

twinkletoes

Hi there, has MT posted his summer forecast yet? Waiting with anticipation! He said he was posting it one day last week but I cant seem to find it? Many thanks

sryanbruen

MT's Summer outlook:

Summer outlook ... Today I am releasing the hounds of summer and they are friendly I think. Some parts of eastern Ireland are likely to enjoy a warmer than average summer as they join with Britain and other parts of western Europe in a very warm pattern that may dominate most of the season. Temperatures in the east may be as much as 1 to 2 degrees above normal and there will be a few spells of warmth bordering on actual heat (high 20s in other words). Western and northern regions of Ireland are less certain to see this outcome but could have some decent spells of summery weather alternating with periods that are cloudier and wetter. This regional difference would be the result of a persistent southwest flow that brings frontal systems closer to western Ireland but often these will move north more than east, so that rainfall amounts would likely drop off from west to east. The summer season includes June, July and August for climatologists but the general public often think of the season as starting in late June and lasting into September. I think that version of summer might actually fare better since early June is the one time where cooler conditions are more definitely indicated.

lapua20grain

Sryanbruen, do you think the ash and general detritus being thrown up in to the air will have an effect on the summer weather or will it be later in the year? As I seem to remember reading somewhere that the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull had an effect on the climate that year.

km79

SUMMER IS COMING

sryanbruen

lapua20grain wrote: »

Sryanbruen, do you think the ash and general detritus being thrown up in to the air will have an effect on the summer weather or will it be later in the year? As I seem to remember reading somewhere that the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull had an effect on the climate that year.

We will have to see, it's always quite difficult to tell when or if any climatic effects will take place courtesy of volcanic eruptions. We do know that they may have a significant impact like in 1816 with the Year Without a Summer (even though, a lot of years can be applied to that title in Ireland) preceded by Mount Tambora's eruption, 1879 with every month cooler than average and Summer very wet preceded by Rabaul's eruption or 2010 with the second coldest December recorded in the CET series going back to 1659 preceded by the eruption that you speak of in Iceland. It's kind of like watching out for tropospheric responses from sudden stratospheric warming events in a way that we just have to wait and see.

Summer 2010 had an abnormally negative NAO index (then again, so did Summers 2007-09 too) but it was a warmer than average season in spite of this and the cool finish with August. The theory of the eruptions is that they cause cooling so do not think Iceland's volcano had much effect on Summer 2010 though August did have some very cool nights especially towards the very end of the month under an anticyclone.

2018 has had numerous significant volcanic eruptions already and I'm keeping an eye out carefully on seeing if there's any disturbances in the atmosphere.

Just for people's interest..... AccuWeather says warm and showery for Ireland but in Britain, perhaps one of the warmest Summers of the decade with 2013.

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/997800201502056448

patneve2

The accuweather forecast looks quite similar to mt cranium's prediction with stronger heights the further east you go. Ireland brushing with instability at times, especially towards the west. Wouldn't mind a warm + humid summer. Will be interesting to see if they are accurate.

Ultimate Seduction

The mentioning of AccuWeather should be banned on this forum.

SleetAndSnow

Any predictions on what the summer for us down south will be like? Never know if we should point ourselves towards the east more then the west!

Elmer Blooker

km79 wrote: »

SUMMER IS COMING

I'd prefer summer in July and August. A very long dry spell ahead which means that July and August will be wet, that's not a prediction, it's just an opinion.
I've always had my doubts about summers that are early starters.

ECM1-240.GIF?19-12

sdanseo

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I'd prefer summer in July and August. A very long dry spell ahead which means that July and August will be wet, that's not a prediction, it's just an opinion.
I've always had my doubts about summers that are early starters.

After the autumn and winter we had, plus the lack of any appreciable spring, my glass is half full on that one rather than half empty. We've already had about as much sun this spring as we had all last summer. Not a high bar to beat.