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Property Market 2018

castle2012

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

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Wanderer78

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

It’s nonsense. Irish people have also been paying back loans hand over fist since the crisis. Household debt is still falling.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/households-debt-to-gdp

We did go crazy before 2006 though.

again, to quote bill black, 'behind ever bad borrower, are bad lenders'!

Garphiel

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

People are delusional, take one look at stock markets and the likes, but also see what kind of nonsense is going on around bitcoin, watches, classic cars, people buying Porsches never to be driven, only to put it into storage "because price goes up", feck off, speculation everywhere, money for nothing, for no effort whatsoever.

Unless we reconfigure the entire world to an economic and political system that's not capitalism, this is not going to change any time soon. Have you ever noticed wealthy people do not just leave their millions and billions sitting in a bank account. They invest in property, companies, stocks, shares, funds, commodities and other valuable assets like the ones you mentioned which also return them "money for nothing".
Wealthy people know that inflation over time will chip away the value of their money, hence why they invest it.
If an employer is making 20 euro an hour from an employee's work, but paying them 10 euro an hour. That's money for nothing too for no effort on the employer's part, other than owning the means of production. The alternatives are communism/socialism which have their own problems.
Funny you mention bitcoin as I think there's actually a lot of future potential in the area of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies (especially Ripple/stellar and the like) both as cheap ways of transferring money around the world and as a store of value.

Wanderer78

Garphiel wrote: »

Unless we reconfigure the entire world to an economic and political system that's not capitalism, this is not going to change any time soon. Have you ever noticed wealthy people do not just leave their millions and billions sitting in a bank account. They invest in property, companies, stocks, shares, funds, commodities and other valuable assets like the ones you mentioned which also return them "money for nothing".
Wealthy people know that inflation over time will chip away the value of their money, hence why they invest it.
If an employer is making 20 euro an hour from an employee's work, but paying them 10 euro an hour. That's money for nothing too for no effort on the employer's part, other than owning the means of production. The alternatives are communism/socialism which are not ideal either.
Funny you mention bitcoin as I think there's actually a lot of future potential in the area of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies (especially Ripple/stellar and the like) both as cheap ways of transferring money around the world and as a store of value.

capitalism has actually been extremely valuable for many reasons for humanity, i agree with many commentators though, theres something fundamentally wrong with our current and most predominant form, i.e. neoliberalism. this has been further compounded by financialisation of our economies, and we now watching it fail, but we have not accepted this yet. we truly need to move on from the black and white debate of capitalism v's socialism, which is truly boring and two dimensional, i.e. we need to move onto some other form of capitalism before we self destruct, neoliberalism and neoclassical theory are failing before our eyes, and we re not reacting.

ArnieSilvia

Well Sherlock, let me tell you that I gave an example, doesn't mean that I worked for this kind of money for that company. And what I referred to is for permanent position with billed o/t and benefits compared to what I saw before, not contract, and no bragging here, just cold facts. My assumption is that a lot of specialists left Ireland, due to the cost of living which in turn pushed salaries up so much. Or maybe it's too hard to find a place to live in the big schmoke and people look elsewhere.

I also can see that you completely missed the point I was making, but you didn't miss opportunity to give personal insult about the woeful salary

[Deleted User]

An example?

There is no industry / discipline where labour costs went from 35k/annum to 80k/annum in 3 years.

What you gave is looking like a job advertisement coupled with your own strange interpretation.

Like, no specialists in anything were on 35k/annum in Dublin 3 years ago. It's laughable to claim they were.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Bob24

Augeo wrote: »

An example?

There is no industry / discipline where labour costs went from 35k/annum to 80k/annum in 3 years.

What you gave is looking like a job advertisement coupled with your own strange interpretation.

Like, no specialists in anything were on 35k/annum in Dublin 3 years ago. It's laughable to claim they were.

Exactly my thoughts when I read that post. It is possible that a specific individual got that kind of pay progression if they were underpayed 3 years ago and found a proper oportunity to leverage their skills. But there is no way labour cost more than doubled for a whole industry within 3 years (although I guess construction must have seen massive spikes).

[Deleted User]

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

A software eng with x years experience 3 years ago commanded a salary of €35k.

Today, a software eng with x years experience commands a salary of €80k.

x being a constant, not the same software eng with 3 more years experience btw

I'd say not

DubJJ

Posted in error

mickoneill31

Augeo wrote: »

A software eng with x years experience 3 years ago commanded a salary of €35k.

Today, a software eng with x years experience commands a salary of €80k.

x being a constant, not the same software eng with 3 more years experience btw

I'd say not

Is the company also a constant in those equations?

[Deleted User]

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Is the company also a constant in those equations?

Well the claim was made across an industry, not just a company iirc.

I've no doubt some software companies pay 80K + but they weren't paying 35K 3 years ago to get folks in the door to do the same job.

" the salary in my field rocketed from mere 35k 3 years ago to 80k today"

The field has to be more than a single company IMO.

Lidl and Aldi pay relatively well but most similar jobs are far worse paid, for example. Lidl and Aldi are outliers.

manonboard

I'd like to hear some thoughts on 1 Bed apartments please.
I live in center of tallaght, beside the square. Apartment block is of great quality and well maintained.

I checked the market the other day and the place is worth 130k.
I've been here 10 years now. I really love it. Everything is close and everything is provided.

Why does the market not change much for 1 bed apartments? They've barely moved in price. So i am really surprised that they are not considered great value at current prices.

Is the lack of being able to have children living in one the big reason?
(No kids myself)

Gerry Mandarin

manonboard wrote: »

I'd like to hear some thoughts on 1 Bed apartments please.
I live in center of tallaght, beside the square. Apartment block is of great quality and well maintained.

I checked the market the other day and the place is worth 130k.
I've been here 10 years now. I really love it. Everything is close and everything is provided.

Why does the market not change much for 1 bed apartments? They've barely moved in price. So i am really surprised that they are not considered great value at current prices.

Is the lack of being able to have children living in one the big reason?
(No kids myself)

I've noticed this too and would attribute it to lessons learned from Celtic tiger years 'property ladder' mentality and subsequent crash.

In 2002/2003 for example, a young couple with no children could buy a nice 1 or 2 bed apartment, live there for a few years until the day comes when they want to start a family (all the time watching the price of their apartment going up 10-15% / year) - then sell for a tidy profit and use the money to buy a family home (typically a 3 or 4 bed semi-d near schools and with front/back gardens and so on..)

The problem with this is a lot of people got the timing wrong and bought apartments in 2007/2008 with the same intention. Then within 4-5 years they were in negative equity and their apartments worth 50% less than they paid, and most importantly could not sell when they wanted to start a family and now need 3 or 4 bedrooms and gardens etc.

What's happening now is young couples like above are being cautious and deciding to live at home/rent for longer and skip the 'starter home' step, instead trying to buy their 'forever home' as first time buyers. (in case there's another crash and they're stuck in the apartment with negative equity).

I see a lot of posts here and other sites claiming we have learned nothing from the last crash, but this kind of behavior is sensible in my opinion and definitely a lot different than Celtic tiger years.

Of course this wouldn't be a problem if apartments here were built for family living like other countries, with more bedrooms, storage, facilities, space for children to play, etc.

Bob24

manonboard wrote: »

I'd like to hear some thoughts on 1 Bed apartments please.
I live in center of tallaght, beside the square. Apartment block is of great quality and well maintained.

I checked the market the other day and the place is worth 130k.
I've been here 10 years now. I really love it. Everything is close and everything is provided.

Why does the market not change much for 1 bed apartments? They've barely moved in price. So i am really surprised that they are not considered great value at current prices.

Is the lack of being able to have children living in one the big reason?
(No kids myself)

I think one beds are usually seen as more of an investment property than a place to live. So prices increase would be very dependant on the local rental market (I.e. 1 beds will only see large increases of value in the most high demand areas in terms of rental). For exemple I live in Grand Canal Dock and you would have a lot of highly paid individuals in the area who want their own place (or a one bed for a young couple). So one beds are very high demand, extremely hard to find and super expensive to rent out (rent can be 2k per month for the ones in the nicer developments).

I have been following the second hand property market in the area for a while and those one beds have definitely increase in value a lot (I.e. the increase in percentage terms seems to be no less than 2 beds in the same developments).

I know rental pressure exists all over the city, but I am assuming it is not as strong in Tallaght as it is in GCD.

keane2097

I find the growing narrative of 'we're all at it again' totally baffling tbh.

I can't see what ordinary people are doing that's out of line at the moment. Nobody is buying investment property in Bulgaria, no 110% mortgages - there's no mania. All that's happening here is people who need a place to live are having to pay a lot for housing because rents and property prices are very high.

The 'we've learned nothing' self-flagellation doesn't seem to reflect reality and is tiresome.

Bob24

keane2097 wrote: »

I find the growing narrative of 'we're all at it again' totally baffling tbh.

I can't see what ordinary people are doing that's out of line at the moment. Nobody is buying investment property in Bulgaria, no 110% mortgages - there's no mania. All that's happening here is people who need a place to live are having to pay a lot for housing because rents and property prices are very high.

The 'we've learned nothing' self-flagellation doesn't seem to reflect reality and is tiresome.

Only half agree with you.

For sure we are currently nowhere near last time’s madness.

But:
- while central bank rules are much better now but have already been relaxed once and government schemes have been introduced to circumvent then to some extend, we have to be mindful of not diluting them further
- we still have unresolved issues from the crisis both with public debt (reducing but still high) and private debt (very high level of non-performing mortgages)
- many people are getting mortgages which are affordable to them today but could become unaffordable similar to last time if another financial crisis was to hit again
- high prices are cause by a sting shortage but as last time this could change very quickly of we were to see a lot of emigration due to a crisis

So in short yes there is much less craziness in the air and absolutely agreed comparing 2007 to 2018 is not valid, but we still have a backlog of unresolved issues from the previous crisis and have many similar key risks as those we had last time if another crisis was to hit us. And that is something to be mindful of.

[Deleted User]

Well if no one was effected by a crisis....

Diarmuid

keane2097 wrote: »

I find the growing narrative of 'we're all at it again' totally baffling tbh.

I can't see what ordinary people are doing that's out of line at the moment. Nobody is buying investment property in Bulgaria, no 110% mortgages - there's no mania. All that's happening here is people who need a place to live are having to pay a lot for housing because rents and property prices are very high.

The 'we've learned nothing' self-flagellation doesn't seem to reflect reality and is tiresome.

I find the attitude that we are not going to end up in bubble territory again if we don't exactly follow the same steps as the last time, tiresome. There are more than one ways to skin a cat, and when it comes to property, Irish people will find a way.

SNNUS

keane2097 wrote: »

I find the growing narrative of 'we're all at it again' totally baffling tbh.

I can't see what ordinary people are doing that's out of line at the moment. Nobody is buying investment property in Bulgaria, no 110% mortgages - there's no mania. All that's happening here is people who need a place to live are having to pay a lot for housing because rents and property prices are very high.

The 'we've learned nothing' self-flagellation doesn't seem to reflect reality and is tiresome.

SPOT On, People are buying to have a roof over their head, not to have the uncertainty of being turfed out of a rental property at any time. Hard working people deserve security of a home they can call their own.

If people keep holding off because of speculation you will end up with nothing, don't forget if property prices suddenly crash the banks will not be lending so no bargain to be had anyway.

If you are buying like me , it is the right time when it feels right, it is nothing like 2007, people are much more educated on the subject now and are not in it for investment.

For those buying this year, don't listen to the crash talk, enjoy your forever home and best of luck with it!, See you in Ikea : )

keane2097

Diarmuid wrote: »

I find the attitude that we are not going to end up in bubble territory again if we don't exactly follow the same steps as the last time, tiresome. There are more than one ways to skin a cat, and when it comes to property, Irish people will find a way.

This is confusing.

Are you complaining that we are following the exact same steps as the last time or that we are finding a new way to create a bubble?

hmmm

keane2097 wrote: »

I can't see what ordinary people are doing that's out of line at the moment. Nobody is buying investment property in Bulgaria, no 110% mortgages - there's no mania. All that's happening here is people who need a place to live are having to pay a lot for housing because rents and property prices are very high.

True, and if you look at my post history you'll see I was one of those calling the bubble back in 2006/7.

I don't see signs of the same madness with banks throwing money at people, what we have now is a simple supply and demand imbalance.

If we build more, and if supply increases, prices should drop. But right now, with demand high and supply low, and people having to pay crazy rents, the prices look justified. Whether it's moral or right that we allow this situation is a different matter.

oceanman

SNNUS wrote: »

For those buying this year, don't listen to the crash talk, enjoy your forever home and best of luck with it!, See you in Ikea : )

or the courts! ;-)

SNNUS

oceanman wrote: »

or the courts! ;-)

I'd say you are fun to be around..

manonboard

Gerry Mandarin wrote: »

...

Thanks for those thoughts. Yeah, that makes alot of sense. I bought it myself back in boom time, but at a large discount thanks to the council. I find it a perfect place for living with myself/partner. The mortgage is 550 a month so protects me from all this crazy rent going on.
The rental prices for 1 beds is quite high, and way way higher than a mortgage which is what i find most interesting.

Bob24 wrote: »

I know rental pressure exists all over the city, but I am assuming it is not as strong on Tallaght as it is in GCD.

Yeah that all seems consistent. I dont know those areas well market wise, i just happen to work there and commute on the luas. The rents for 1 bed apts is very high even here. I could get 900+ very easily yet my mortgage is only 550. My place is only worth 130k judging my other apts sold in my building. From what i know, our building is of the highest quality in comparison to others (gas heating, nice finishes etc) so it surprises me how cheap the places are to buy. Though perhaps they are not cheap, and im just looking through the lens of over priced normalisation!

Bob24

manonboard wrote: »

Yeah that all seems consistent. I dont know those areas well market wise, i just happen to work there and commute on the luas. The rents for 1 bed apts is very high even here. I could get 900+ very easily yet my mortgage is only 550. My place is only worth 130k judging my other apts sold in my building. From what i know, our building is of the highest quality in comparison to others (gas heating, nice finishes etc) so it surprises me how cheap the places are to buy. Though perhaps they are not cheap, and im just looking through the lens of over priced normalisation!

If it is a nice building as you describe and the area is not dodgy (not very familiar with Tallaght but I assume it can vary a good bit depending on where you are), I’d agree it sounds like good value for a nice one bed anywhere in Dublin (especially if you are close to the LUAS).

The apartments I was taking about will go for 350+. Things like this: https://www.daft.ie/11643859
(And actually I just had a look and I underestimated rent increases since last time i checked, it’s more 2200 apparently ... madness for a one bed, I did rent on in the same development in 2012 for less than half that amount).

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

manonboard

draiochtanois wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Identical to this one.
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/15-broadfield-hall-tallaght-dublin-24/3472054

47m2
so 505 square foot according to google.

manonboard

Bob24 wrote: »

The apartments I was taking about will go for 350+. Things like this: https://www.daft.ie/11643859
(And actually I just had a look and I underestimated rent increases since last time i checked, it’s more 2200 apparently ... madness for a one bed, I did rent on in the same development in 2012 for less than half that amount).

omg! 350+! for a 1 bed, things are more crazy that i thought. 2200 rent! thats insane. I can understand a company paying for it and maybe giving it to travelers who are visiting.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Cuddlesworth

manonboard wrote: »

omg! 350+! for a 1 bed, things are more crazy that i thought. 2200 rent! thats insane. I can understand a company paying for it and maybe giving it to travelers who are visiting.

AirB&B could get you around way more rent. I've heard figures of 4-6k a month. Its actually at the point where I don't understand why people stay there and not just book a hotel.