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Property Market 2018

castle2012

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

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audi5

Q&A wrote: »

The_Conductor wrote: »

There are a few developments coming down the tracks- including a ban on 2% back and other 'incentives' and 'offers' which certain lenders have used extensively to drive new lending (BOI and EBS- most aggressively). /quote]

I for one will miss these incentives. For the reasonably informed that represented a handy way to make a few bob by taking the money and running to a new lender. I appreciate it requires a bit of effort on the borrowers side but it was there for the taking.

I understand why there is talk about removing these incentives. Different rates, duration and other terminology make it all a little confusing for the financially illiterate in understanding what the actual costs are before you muddy the water further. However, would the focus not be better spent educating people rather than trying to dumb it down. You're not allowed get behind a wheel of a car without sitting a test why not the same for borrowing large sums of money.

I have to agree with you on this. Its another one of FF's stupid proposals to "solve housing crisis".

Free money from banks is bad, but SSIA style scheme where government give free money (funded by tax payer of course) is good.

They are trying to sell it as if it will bring down mortgage rates. As an example BOI 3/5 year fixed rates are already one of the lowest, and they offer 3% cashback on top of that. They can remove that cashback and will still be competitive on the rates.

If government/FF can do anything, they should be talking about how to attract more players in the mortgage market and let competition take care of rates.

Sleepy

Only one way to attract more players: tackle our problem with the inability of lenders to repossess properties where homeowners aren't / can't repay their mortgages.

Try selling that as a politician though!

audi5

Sleepy wrote: »

Only one way to attract more players: tackle our problem with the inability of lenders to repossess properties where homeowners aren't / can't repay their mortgages.

Try selling that as a politician though!

That certainly will help but doubt if it is the only reason.

I am not sure whats latest on this below, but politicians can start by not being "lukewarm" when a new player tries to enter this market. I certainly will be more than lukewarm if they offered me 1.1% over ten year fixed.

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/sparkasse-to-tell-tds-it-is-deeply-convinced-model-can-work-in-ireland-36537394.html

Both the Department of Finance and the Central Bank are believed to be lukewarm at best about the proposal.

Wanderer78

Sleepy wrote: »

Only one way to attract more players: tackle our problem with the inability of lenders to repossess properties where homeowners aren't / can't repay their mortgages.

Try selling that as a politician though!

then what do we do with these homeowners?

audi5

Wanderer78 wrote: »

then what do we do with these homeowners?

I doubt if banks bulldoze a property after repocession. Houses will still be here.

Wanderer78

audi5 wrote: »

I doubt if banks bulldoze a property after repocession. Houses will still be here.

but what do we do with those that have been made homeless? this isnt a game of musical chairs here!

manniot2

"Both the Department of Finance and the Central Bank are believed to be lukewarm at best about the proposal"
The central bank wont want them because they don't have the ability to regulate what's currently here as it is.
The politicians will be sceptical on behalf of their buddies in the banks.

manniot2

Cuddlesworth

audi5 wrote: »

Both the Department of Finance and the Central Bank are believed to be lukewarm at best about the proposal.

German Bank comes in and offers 1.1% fixed rate mortgages.

A fairly large proportion of existing mortgages transfer to new bank offering 66% less then the best competition.

Irish lenders are left with their non-performing loans. Which I believe are still the worst in the world as a percentage of the population.

The Irish banking system then collapses again.

The problem has always been that until their is actual recourse for non-payment of loads, the populace will have to continue to pay high rates. Irish banks can't compete, their loan books are the worst in the world.

[Deleted User]

Sleepy wrote: »

Only one way to attract more players: tackle our problem with the inability of lenders to repossess properties where homeowners aren't / can't repay their mortgages.

Try selling that as a politician though!

Wanderer78 wrote: »

but what do we do with those that have been made homeless? this isnt a game of musical chairs here!

Well the can't should be their own problem.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote:

Well the can't should be their own problem.

And this solves the problem by?

Bob24

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

German Bank comes in and offers 1.1% fixed rate mortgages.

A fairly large proportion of existing mortgages transfer to new bank offering 66% less then the best competition.

Irish lenders are left with their non-performing loans. Which I believe are still the worst in the world as a percentage of the population.

The Irish banking system then collapses again.

The problem has always been that until their is actual recourse for non-payment of loads, the populace will have to continue to pay high rates. Irish banks can't compete, their loan books are the worst in the world.

Agree with the second part of your post. But why would a German bank offer German type rates here knowing than they will be subject to the same issues as Irish bank and the long term and will end up with bad equaly loan books for their Irish mortgages?

Graham

Wanderer78 wrote: »

then what do we do with these homeowners?

Are you suggesting they just be gifted a house?

That hardly sounds fair to thousands upon thousands of families that have been waiting for years for affordable/social housing.
That hardly sounds fair to thousands upon thousands of mortgage payers facing increased interest costs every single month as a direct results of banks inability to recoup losses.
That's not likely to encourage new entrants into the mortgage marketplace to increase competition.

Carlos Orange

Wanderer78 wrote: »

And this solves the problem by?

Maybe it doesn't solve anything but it stops people who pay their mortgages subsidising those who don't.

AlmightyCushion

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

German Bank comes in and offers 1.1% fixed rate mortgages.

A fairly large proportion of existing mortgages transfer to new bank offering 66% less then the best competition.

Irish lenders are left with their non-performing loans. Which I believe are still the worst in the world as a percentage of the population.

The Irish banking system then collapses again.

The problem has always been that until their is actual recourse for non-payment of loads, the populace will have to continue to pay high rates. Irish banks can't compete, their loan books are the worst in the world.

Sparkasse is proposing establishing eight independent regional public banks in Ireland, starting with a pilot bank in the midlands with up to five branches. Sparkasse's role would be to provide expertise. It would not put up the required funding for the new public bank.

They aren't offering any mortgages. They're just offering advice, the state would be putting up the cash for it. It's very different from a German bank offering mortgages using their own money.

Wanderer78

AlmightyCushion wrote:

They aren't offering any mortgages. They're just offering advice, the state would be putting up the cash for it. It's very different from a German bank offering mortgages using their own money.

I've been looking into public banks for some time, I'm convinced it would certainly help our country, but it's also important to realise, such a system will not solve all of our financial woes, and would probably also introduce some of its own problems. It's very important to realise the benefits of such a system, but it's also important to realise how the modern banking system works, particularly in relation to money and it's creation, in the fact that banks actually create the majority of our money in the form of loans, and a public Bank can also have this privilege.

gmisk

I just got a valuation done on my house (Dublin 8 - bought almost 3 years back - as switching mortgage provider)...it has increased in value by over 100k...I did some work but not that much maybe 15-20k...surely price growth like that cant continue?

Grassey

I bought new build a year ago, phase 2 launched same house now 10% more, phase 3 launches this weekend 17% more. Reckon by phase 4 it'll hit 50% growth and then I'm out of here!

wardides

As someone who has been renting for 2 years (in quite affordable rent, especially in comparison to similar properties around our location) is there any pointers to well informed articles around the property market. Looking to perhaps get on the property ladder towards summer of next 2019, but some of the recent increase in prices are quite scary.

Not that this thread isn't informed, but can be hard to follow some of the multiple conversations going on! Any advice welcome obviously!

awec

Grassey wrote: »

I bought new build a year ago, phase 2 launched same house now 10% more, phase 3 launches this weekend 17% more. Reckon by phase 4 it'll hit 50% growth and then I'm out of here!

Yea but then you have to buy another house yourself which will be much more expensive than it was a year ago. Your "profit" will be eaten up.

o1s1n

awec wrote: »

Yea but then you have to buy another house yourself which will be much more expensive than it was a year ago. Your "profit" will be eaten up.

Unless of course 'I'm outta here' means leaving this mental country and using the funds to buy something far bigger and nicer elsewhere.

Wanderer78

wardides wrote:

Not that this thread isn't informed, but can be hard to follow some of the multiple conversations going on! Any advice welcome obviously!

I'd have to agree with David McWilliams, I.e. there is no ideal time to buy, jump in and hope for the best

Zenify

wardides wrote: »

As someone who has been renting for 2 years (in quite affordable rent, especially in comparison to similar properties around our location) is there any pointers to well informed articles around the property market. Looking to perhaps get on the property ladder towards summer of next 2019, but some of the recent increase in prices are quite scary.

Not that this thread isn't informed, but can be hard to follow some of the multiple conversations going on! Any advice welcome obviously!

In brief, nobody knows what's going to happen. Some people here are 100% convinced that prices are going to continue going up. Some people here are wishing they fall.

I think we can all agree there isn't any value to be had in property in places like Dublin. The only reason people recommend to buy today is because tomorrow it will be more expensive.

Well informed articles don't exist about the economy. Most people are pushing their own agenda. Unfortunately, most of the articles about housing comes from the estate agents and banks who depend on the market. Then there's Davy who are stockbrokers and they do a housing article and most people trust them. However, they are one of the biggest property investors in Ireland

https://www.davy.ie/property

So don't believe anything you hear and just flip a coin

ArnieSilvia

Re: interest rates and inflation, I'm baffled how these big heads both in ECB and here cannot see that there's no inflation because there's no money in ordinary people's hands.
Why is that? Because of income distribution, one percenters and everything that comes with it!!!
As long as this situation continues, poor will be poorer, rich will be reacher.

Looking at my own playground, we are selling and walking away with 125k profit made in 3 years which was undeserved, untaxed, just because we could buy when it was kinda cheap. We are going to sit back and wait.

Work wise, the salary in my field rocketed from mere 35k 3 years ago to 80k today, why? Because I have a house in Dublin and other candidates don't. So because I'm "rich" (wink) I can make these money. Others who are "poor" will not make these money. Why? Again, because we bought when it was cheap, just because we were lucky and others were not.
People are delusional, take one look at stock markets and the likes, but also see what kind of nonsense is going on around bitcoin, watches, classic cars, people buying Porsches never to be driven, only to put it into storage "because price goes up", feck off, speculation everywhere, money for nothing, for no effort whatsoever. Whoever thinks this will go on let me remind you that when shyte hit the fan there was a Ferrari Daytona on donedeal for 15k, yes you read it right, now what, 200k? 500k? For what, for what effort, for what amount of real work. Nevermind farmers who will drive themselves to powerty with Brexit and will have their farms repossessed to cover the losses on farming. Wake up.

[Deleted User]

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'd have to agree with David McWilliams, I.e. there is no ideal time to buy, jump in and hope for the best

The ideal time to buy is when a home comes along that you need, at a price you can afford & that you can see yourself living in for a decade +.

[Deleted User]

ArnieSilvia wrote: »

...............

Work wise, the salary in my field rocketed from mere 35k 3 years ago to 80k today, why? ............

Because you had not much experience 3 years ago compared to now most likely, it's called career progression

You might also be overpaid now and maybe you were underpaid then, presumably you aren't in the same company either. If you stayed in the same company you would have seen no rocketing in the ole pay packet I reckon.

Also ..........a glance at your other posts revealed this
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=103202898

80k/annum is woeful for short term contracting tbh.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

The ideal time to buy is when a home comes along that you need, at a price you can afford & that you can see yourself living in for a decade +.

very well put, but strangely enough, a home is always a need, period. the language we now use around purchasing homes has become somewhat disturbing, terms such as 'the ladder', i.e. the speculation surrounding property has got to stop

[Deleted User]

A rented room in a house share can be home.
While a home is always needed that doesn't mean everyone needs to buy one.....or should get a free one either for that matter.

Wanderer78

Augeo wrote: »

A rented room in a house share can be home.
While a home is always needed that doesn't mean everyone needs to buy one.....or should get a free one either for that matter.

agree and disagree, again, the word 'free' has actually changed its meaning in the modern era, a lot of the time, upon research, things dont appear to be all that free! again, we re experiencing a major failure at a fundamental level of the idea of 'the market', i.e. neoclassical theory, and its inabilities to provide us with all our needs, in particular, housing. we havent accepted this yet

Franz Von Peppercorn

Augeo wrote: »

A baffling view.
Folk are spending lots on rent and lots on various income taxes, new car sales aren't really high this year, there's a supply issue of property.

There's little to no party really.

It’s nonsense. Irish people have also been paying back loans hand over fist since the crisis. Household debt is still falling.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/households-debt-to-gdp

We did go crazy before 2006 though.