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Property Market 2018

castle2012

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

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Bob24

LirW wrote: »

In fairness, a good number of people commute from even further away, lots of people from Arklow or Gorey do it every day.

It is doeable, but even though I haven’t experienced it I assume unless you work on the far south-east of Dublin it is very time consuming, tiring, and expensive to do it everyday. This limits the number of people who would commit to doing it in the long term.

It is further that Wicklow but I had a colleague who was driving from Carlow to Dublin City centre everyday before. But it seemed like a huge pain and after a while he gave up and got a not as good job closer to his place. I think most people can only accept this kind of think on a temporary basis.

LirW

Bob24 wrote: »

It is doeable, but even though I haven’t experienced it I assume unless you work on the far south-east of Dublin it is very time consuming, tiring, and expensive to do it everyday. This limits the number of people who would commit to doing it in the long term.

It is further that Wicklow but I had a colleague who was driving from Carlow to Dublin City centre everyday before. But it seemed like a huge pain and after a while he gave up and got a not as good job closer to his place. I think most people can only accept this kind of think on a temporary basis.

I hear you, my partner commutes by Bus from Gorey to Dublin several times a week and while he has pretty decent hours and flexi-times it's getting at him. We only really had the choice of moving where we live or a similar distance or stay with his parents because we didn't find anything to rent with children. But now that we own the house, overall it's a not so bad solution because we have a stable living situation and I can look after my own children in the near future.

utmbuilder

we have to ask ourselves who we are as a country with people spending 5+ hours unpaid commuting a day now as a norm

maybe the future of our children is not here, let the parents work hard and get their children a better life.

Wanderer78

utmbuilder wrote:

we have to ask ourselves who we are as a country with people spending 5+ hours unpaid commuting a day now as a norm

A recovering and growing economy, apparently!

Villa05

Augeo wrote:

Sarcasm?

Reality

Not in Ireland. Poor judgement is rewarded here

Samuel T. Cogley

Villa05 wrote: »

Reality

Not in Ireland. Poor judgement is rewarded here

Well this was Scotland and I saw an 80%+ increase in the three or four years I had it so all turned out well. We're talking a different market though, my gaffe cost me £26K to buy.

[Deleted User]

utmbuilder wrote: »

we have to ask ourselves who we are as a country with people spending 5+ hours unpaid commuting a day now as a norm

.....

It's not the norm, nowhere near the norm.
Overall, the odd few do it for whatever reason. Want to live in sticks with a Dublin wage etc etc

LirW

Augeo wrote: »

It's not the norm, nowhere near the norm.
Overall, the odd few do it for whatever reason. Want to live in sticks with a Dublin wage etc etc

I don't know, that's a bit of a sheltered view of it all. There are plenty of people that can't afford property in or in immediate distance of the capital. Since the rental market is so broken and doesn't accommodate families, people with disabilites etc. a good number goes off and looks elsewhere.
There are plenty of towns 70-90km away from Dublin where people commute every day, because this is where they can afford a house.
We're no exception of that really, we couldn't afford anything in Dublin or in the Commuter towns.

Samuel T. Cogley

LirW wrote: »

I don't know, that's a bit of a sheltered view of it all. There are plenty of people that can't afford property in or in immediate distance of the capital. Since the rental market is so broken and doesn't accommodate families, people with disabilites etc. a good number goes off and looks elsewhere.
There are plenty of towns 70-90km away from Dublin where people commute every day, because this is where they can afford a house.
We're no exception of that really, we couldn't afford anything in Dublin or in the Commuter towns.

TBH there are perfectly liveable houses and areas in Dublin people won't live in in for various silly reasons. At the end of the day though it's their money and if they want to commute that's up to them. If there was a massive difference in price I could understand, but most of the time it's the choice between Kilbarrack and Kildare and people living in Kildare because they think living in Kilbarrack is like a Roddy Doyle book. (To be fair it sort of is).

LirW

I know what you mean, it's not that we were picky in any way but we struggled even to find anything in the worst parts of Finglas (where we didn't want to be anyway after we were greeted by some horses).
My point is there are plenty of people with not-so-high salaries having family and wanting to but and getting something like 140k approved from the bank. You stay renting or you work with it and the ones that go on and buy houses buy the best what they can get for it, which is certainly not Dublin. The commute is the price you pay for owning your own house on a lower wage.

[Deleted User]

utmbuilder wrote: »

we have to ask ourselves who we are as a country with people spending 5+ hours unpaid commuting a day now as a norm

maybe the future of our children is not here, let the parents work hard and get their children a better life.

LirW wrote: »

I don't know, that's a bit of a sheltered view of it all. There are plenty of people that can't afford property in or in immediate distance of the capital. Since the rental market is so broken and doesn't accommodate families, people with disabilites etc. a good number goes off and looks elsewhere.
There are plenty of towns 70-90km away from Dublin where people commute every day, because this is where they can afford a house.
We're no exception of that really, we couldn't afford anything in Dublin or in the Commuter towns.

You reckon a 2.5 hour commute to work and the same back is normal?
You reckon me saying it's not normal is "a bit of a sheltered view" ?

Are you well?

It's not the norm, just because you and a small minority do it.

Samuel T. Cogley

LirW wrote: »

I know what you mean, it's not that we were picky in any way but we struggled even to find anything in the worst parts of Finglas (where we didn't want to be anyway after we were greeted by some horses).
My point is there are plenty of people with not-so-high salaries having family and wanting to but and getting something like 140k approved from the bank. You stay renting or you work with it and the ones that go on and buy houses buy the best what they can get for it, which is certainly not Dublin. The commute is the price you pay for owning your own house on a lower wage.

Don't get me wrong. The attraction/necessity of a low mortgage is not lost on me.

LirW

So what's with all the people then that work in Dublin and can't afford living there? They don't exist?

ELM327

LirW wrote: »

So what's with all the people then that work in Dublin and can't afford living there? They don't exist?

They certainly do.
I'm one of them.

While my taxes go (in part) to pay for HAP/rent allowance in the middle of Dublin, I have just bought a 3 bed approx 70 km from where I work. I could not afford closer. (Well I could, but the bank wouldn't give me it as a lot of my salary is "not guaranteed")

[Deleted User]

LirW wrote: »

So what's with all the people then that work in Dublin and can't afford living there? They don't exist?

Most of them don't commute 5 hrs a day. Drogheda, sallins, newbridge etc etc etc

If you commute 2.5 hours to Dublin but can't afford to live there or anywhere appreciably closer I'd suggest looking at job hunting as a potential solution.

Regardless, it's not normal & most don't do it.

LirW

2 hours commute might sound like you're living in Roscommon but when you count in Traffic, a place 70km away can turn into a 2hour commute.
The miserable infrastructure makes it even worse, motorways not geared for the capacity of cars they are carrying every day, standstills because of crashes (they happen an awful lot) and really bad public transport solutions make commute times absolutely miserable even when you're living reasonably far away.

Jobs locally, especially when you're in a certain field are rare. You need to be very patient and it can take you years and you'll most likely take a salary hit, manual labour jobs have it easier outside, tradesmen take on new guys and are pretty busy. Lots of people hunt for jobs closer to their house and they just don't come up in years and the competition you'll face is high because lots of others want to improve their work-life balance.

Families on lower incomes being approved have it tough because they won't find anything in Dublin, the commuter belt is sometimes not affordable too because demand there is high as well and so you expand your search even further. The alternative is stay renting but that's not an option because no landlord wants families nowadays in Dublin.
I mean even here on this board there are regularly people asking for help because they have mortgage approval for anywhere sub200k and they don't know what to do and where to look.

handlemaster

Earleybird wrote: »

little bess wrote: »

I bought my first house at 25 in the UK, and other friends at the time did similar, but this was in the nineties. I wouldn’t be able to do it now.

Course you wouldn't, you couldn't possibly still be in your 20s.

Not if your going out partying smoking and drinking. People have always had to make sacrifices in order to purchase a place to live. Only now we have people who think they should be able to purchase after saving for a month.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Samuel T. Cogley

Building up is frequently put forward as a good idea but Dublin's public transport system is already at capacity and the extension has frankly slowed everything down. I'm not sure the city centre can accommodate many more people. I think the solution is better public transport from the suburbs with medium density housing. I'm less and less convinced skyscrapers are the answer, although a few wouldn't go a miss.

LirW

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Building up is frequently put forward as a good idea but Dublin's public transport system is already at capacity and the extension has frankly slowed everything down. I'm not sure the city centre can accommodate many more people. I think the solution is better public transport from the suburbs with medium density housing. I'm less and less convinced skyscrapers are the answer, although a few wouldn't go a miss.

I think many people see it very drastic as either Semi-D or skyscrapers. I don't see the issue with developments that has 3 or 4 floors with 2 or 3 units per floor. It really is not as high as people make it out to be and you can definitely maintain a nice area with building up slightly. It simply is a lot more efficient. It's like adding another floor onto a Semi-D or it's marginally higher than houses having 3 floors.
I get the feeling that people in reality have no idea how modern apartment living can be done, how new medium density blocks can look. There's this instant fire up of "BUT BALLYMUN" and "BUT CELTIC TIGER APARTMENTS". That's a good while ago, time to move on people.
I'm also not 100% sure if Skyscraper Docklands would be a solution but the planning is beyond inefficient.

I'm on board with the infrastructual disaster, but that happens, no matter what. Not the fault of developers but the fault of the people having the budget purse.

Edit:
This is along the lines I'm talking about.

My sister lives in a big development like that, it's very popular with families. There are many 4 or 5 playgrounds, the buildings have between 2 and 3 storeys (she lives in one with 3 floors, 2 units per floor). You have a patch of garden or a balcony. It's well maintained and there's underground parking.

Samuel T. Cogley

Well six floors is what they seem to think is the best value - personally I'd consider that medium density.

LirW

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Well six floors is what they seem to think is the best value - personally I'd consider that medium density.

I also have family living on the 5th and 6th floor of a 7 floor building with 4 units per floor. It's a 70s built block of pretty good quality which was renovated 2 or 3 years ago including insulation and new windows. They are really cheap to run now and they are pretty generous with storage.
My point is, it's not that high and I think many have no idea how well it can be done and how little it actually impacts you when you lay out a development well.
This allergic venom spitting gets on my nerves really, I regularly have that with the man's parents who both worked in the planning bureau. It's 2018, time to catch on and arrive in the 21. century of city planning.

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

awec

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irish-financial-expert-paul-merriman-12412689

Irish financial expert Paul Merriman has issued a stark warning about Ireland's housing bubble.

I don't know anything about this guy so he could be a complete snake oil salesman, and I couldn't find a more reputable paper than the Mirror so make of it what you will. But I thought it was interesting to be seeing this sort of thing again. The general gist is he believes that many people are buying houses right on the edge of affordability right now and a rise of interest rates is going to hit them hard. On the other hand, the banks are supposed to have tested applicants against this, so I'm not sure a crash is as imminent as he thinks.

I could be wrong, but a rise in interest rates doesn't seem likely to cause a huge sell-off of houses cause people can no longer afford mortgages. I would guess it will lead to a reduction in house prices and therefore the potential for negative equity, but so long as nobody has bought with the plan of moving on I don't see a major issue.

UsBus

He doesn't seem to be saying anything groundbreaking. Interest rates are only going one way. How well stress tested people are by the banks is anyone's guess. I wouldn't put too much faith in them this time around.

What can't be forseen is how much of an impact Brexit will have at the same time as interest rate increases. Negative sentiment around both of these issues will probably lead to a slow down.

I won't say a soft landing..!!

manniot2

He’s right about interest rates and he’s probably right about the price correction that will come with supply. But if ur buying now and not waiting for 5 years, will the amount you spend on rent in the meantime not balance most if not all future potential negative equity? Especially if you have to rent a house in Dublin.

Also where is the supply going to be? Most likely in Kildare, Meath and the outskirts of Dublin. This may not impact house prices closer to the city as people will pay a premium for the nice areas/easy commutes.

I’m probably entirely wrong &#55357;&#56832;

The_Conductor

manniot2 wrote: »

He’s right about interest rates and he’s probably right about the price correction that will come with supply. But if ur buying now and not waiting for 5 years, will the amount you spend on rent in the meantime not balance most if not all future potential negative equity? Especially if you have to rent a house in Dublin.

Also where is the supply going to be? Most likely in Kildare, Meath and the outskirts of Dublin. This may not impact house prices closer to the city as people will pay a premium for the nice areas/easy commutes.

I’m probably entirely wrong ��

I'm not so sure about the house prices closer to the city- people are making all sorts of excuses about areas becoming gentrified at the moment- to support quite remarkable prices in some areas that traditionally, people wouldn't have ahem...... aspired to live in.........

Proximity to the city centre is one thing- but there are a long list of seriously dodgy areas (even now) that have astounding prices associated with them.

Easy commutes are all well and good- but the future is home working- not killing yourself spending 4 hours+ a day on public or private transport.

There are always going to be certain areas that are desireable- however, there are also certain areas- that people are paying silly money for now- purely on the basis that its a means 'to get their foot on the property ladder.......' (sound familiar anyone?)

The generation of people buying today- are not the same generation who got seriously burnt 10-11-12 years ago- and unfortunately- are going to learn many of those lessons for themselves...........

manniot2

I never mentioned places that need gentrification. By closer to the city I meant inside the M50 basically.

Working from home won’t be for everyone. It suits a very low % when all types of industry is considered.

Bob24

manniot2 wrote: »

He’s right about interest rates and he’s probably right about the price correction that will come with supply. But if ur buying now and not waiting for 5 years, will the amount you spend on rent in the meantime not balance most if not all future potential negative equity? Especially if you have to rent a house in Dublin.

Yeah that's the thing. He states that "I think there is definitely a supply issue and once that supply issue is corrected — the Government is saying it is going to build half a million houses by 2040 — those buying houses today are going to be deeply affected.".

I would agree a combination of supply overshooting, interest rates rising, and external factor negatively affecting the economy are likely to at some point affect the property market (when and to which extend is very hard to predict however).

But when he give an outlook of 2040, what exactly is he saying? Don't be now and hold off off for another 20 years? :-)

MayoSalmon

Bob24 wrote:

â€” the Government is saying it is going to build half a million houses by 2040 â€” those buying houses today are going to be deeply affected.".

More chance of finding Aliens on Mars before that ever happens