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Go-Ahead Dublin City Routes - Updates and Discussion

Stephen15

So since the last thread on this got closed and dosen't appear to be reopening any time soon. Heres a new one for you.

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dublinman1990

I heard some more info on the new blue livery that will be on The Go Ahead buses from the NTA.

It appears that the Bus Eireann Streetlites for Waterford city will get the new blue livery applied on them instead of using the Bus Eireann livery.

Here is where I got the source. This photo is not new though. It shows a BE Enviro 200 from July 2017.

AM1 is seen operating Bus Eireann City Service 604, this Summer Waterford is due to receive 17 new Wrightbus Streetlites for City Services operated by Bus Eireann for Transport for Ireland in a new Blue Livery

https://www.flickr.com/photos/darren_hall/39565072230/

That is a big call if you had heard this while working as a Bus Eireann employee. I would have thought Bus Eireann would have a taken similar stance to keep & maintain their own brand like Dublin Bus. Is Bus Eireann definitely the stance using the blue NTA livery after all unlike Dublin Bus who will their current branding?

Stephen15

dublinman1990 wrote: »

That is a big call if you had heard this while working as a Bus Eireann employee. I would have thought Bus Eireann would have a taken similar stance to keep & maintain their own brand like Dublin Bus. Is Bus Eireann definitely the stance using the blue NTA livery after all unlike Dublin Bus who will their current branding?

I thought that DB and BE buses would all be eventually repainted also after 2019 or at least that was the plan.

devnull

Stephen15 wrote: »

I thought that DB and BE buses would all be eventually repainted also after 2019 or at least that was the plan.

Depends what is in the next contracts really.

I would say that the contracts awarded as part of the market opening require it and the direct award existing contracts to Dublin Bus and Bus Eireann don't.

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

If fully commercial operators are not efficient they most likely won't be in business for long unless they have a wealthy backer.

They do not have the luxury of a taxpayer bailout.

And this isn't always true either.

[Deleted User]

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And this isn't always true either.

Certainly aren't shy about asking for one though via mouthpiece O'Leary

goingnowhere

The contract says IE, DB and BE will brand there buses/trains in whatever way the NTA tell them to

Yer Da sells Avon

It seems short-sighted that Dublin Bus is sitting back while Go-Ahead gets the new livery first, rather than quickly adopting it and making it look (to the uninformed public) as though the new operator has to paint its buses into 'Dublin Bus colours'.

devnull

goingnowhere wrote: »

The contract says IE, DB and BE will brand there buses/trains in whatever way the NTA tell them to

But the speech that the Chairman of Dublin Bus gave earlier in the year suggests that they are not simply going to sit there and take that, at least not without a fight.

Cookie_Monster

devnull wrote: »

But the speech that the Chairman of Dublin Bus gave earlier in the year suggests that they are not simply going to sit there and take that, at least not without a fight.

I don't understand the protecting the brand POV they have, their brand is a complete liability, not an asset. DB, and by extension its bright yellow and blue, easily recognised vehicles, are an acronym for unreliable buses, extraordinarily poor customer service and all round terrible performance in everything they do.

But I suppose in their own little world that's not a thing

:rolleyes:

antoinolachtnai

GM228 wrote: »

Direct Award contracts see the operator keep the fares box, tendered contracts don't so I would say they are not the same or possibly not even comparable as revenue needs to be taken into consideration also when pitching a bid.

You can compare easily enough in retrospect by simply adding the fare box and other cross-subsidies to the state subsidy (including the value of grant aided vehicles) and then subtracting the profit. This gives you the total cost of operating the service for a given year.

goingnowhere

Dublin Bus will be moved to a similar contract as Go Ahead in years to come, all fare box will go to the NTA

AlekSmart

GM228 wrote: »

The Official Journal of the EU (OJ) is a daily publication of all EU legislation (Directives, Regulations etc) and any national notices or information required to be published under EU law. It is the EUs version of the Irish Iris Oifigiúil (IO) gazette.

No EU law or notices/infomration required under EU law will have the force of law unless published in the OJ, the same way no national legislation will have the force of law unless published in the IO.

All contract awards issued under procurement law must be announced via the OJ (with some exceptions depending on value and contract type).

The current period of silence is becoming a little unusual,which sadly,gives the field to the loopers,in terms of ever more crazed,"A mate of mine who works in the NTA told me" stories and rumours.

At this stage in the plan,either the NTA,or the Operating Companies,should be well engaged with the Public on the nuts'n bolts of what will happen post October 2018.

The lack of Public Engagement from the NTA is,something which really does need to be flagged in terms of how this Authority is going to conduct business as it's remit solidifies.

dublinman1990

Media outlets have officially reported that Go-Ahead have officially signed the contracts to begin their bus routes taken from Dublin Bus with the NTA from between Mid October 2018 to January 2019. It's also noted that the value of their contract is worth €172 million over 5 years. This includes full mobilisation costs and the provision of depot facilities.

http://www.thejournal.ie/go-ahead-dublin-bus-routes-3966616-Apr2018/

devnull

dublinman1990 wrote: »

Media outlets have officially reported that Go-Ahead have officially signed the contracts to begin their bus routes taken from Dublin Bus with the NTA from between Mid October 2018 to January 2019. It's also noted that the value of their contract is worth €172 million over 5 years. This includes full mobilisation costs and the provision of depot facilities.

So basically they are going to be paid approx €34m a year PSO, but will not see any revenue to top it up.

Dublin Bus in 2016 had a PSO payment of €60m in addition to revenue of €236m giving a total of €296m for the network as a whole.

Stephen15

So that confirms that DB were cheaper surprise surprise.

devnull

Stephen15 wrote: »

So that confirms that DB were cheaper surprise surprise.

No it doesn't at all because nobody knows what Dublin Bus bid, we only know what Go-Ahead bid.

This is a completely different kind of contract from what Dublin Bus are on at the moment so you can't really compare them directly since one is gross cost and the other is net cost.

antoinolachtnai

devnull wrote: »

So basically they are going to be paid approx €34m a year PSO, but will not see any revenue to top it up.

Dublin Bus in 2016 had a PSO payment of €60m in addition to revenue of €236m giving a total of €296m for the network as a whole.

There are capital grants to DB on top of that to buy buses. The way this is dealt with in the accounts is quite odd. But these capital grants appear to be worth 22m a year. (See note 8 in the accounts. ) so this brings it to €318m a year (989 buses).

There is also some sort of allowance made for a depot in the GA contract. I suppose this covers the rent rather than capital cost but I really don’t know.

NTA and GA seem to be planning to operate 125 buses for this 34m a year. This will be €272k/bus/year which is quite a bit lower than what DB run at - €320k/bus/year.

AOTBE that represents a 15 percent saving for NTA and the punter.

If DB really are bidding at this level or close to it, there are interesting times ahead when the bigger contract comes up for renewal.

Stephen15

devnull wrote: »

No it doesn't at all because nobody knows what Dublin Bus bid and this contract is not the same kind of contract that Dublin Bus are on so you're comparing apples with oranges once again.

34m a year subsidy for 10% of bus routes versus 60m for 100% for DB. But yes the service will be growing by 25% but 34m a lot is more than 25% of 60m.

25% of 60m is 15m so DB should have been given a direct award contract worth 75m. We are now paying 60m for DB and 34m for GA total 94m for Dublin city bus services for GA and DB versus 75m for a direct award DB contract.

devnull

Stephen15 wrote: »

34m a year subsidy for 10% of bus routes versus 60m for 100% for DB. But yes the service will be growing by 25% but 34m a lot is more than 25% of 60m.

There's a €236m black hole in your figures.

It's €34m a year vs €296m a year (€318m a year if what antoinolachtnai says is right)

Remember Dublin Bus get fare revenue as well that Go-Ahead do not get.

You need to look at the total costs of providing the service, not the subsidy.

antoinolachtnai

Stephen15 wrote: »

34m a year subsidy for 10% of bus routes versus 60m for 100% for DB. But yes the service will be growing by 25% but 34m a lot is more than 25% of 60m.

25% of 60m is 15m so DB should have been given a direct award contract worth 75m. We are now paying 60m for DB and 34m for GA total 94m for Dublin city bus services for GA and DB versus 75m for a direct award DB contract.

34m is an all in fee, not a subsidy.

DB is paid 318m a year (punters, subsidy and grant) to operate its service (2016), not 60m.

Stephen15

devnull wrote: »

But it's not €34m a year vs €60m a year.

It's €34m a year vs €296m a year.

Remember Dublin Bus get fare revenue as well.

And how much will the NTA be getting from the fare revenue on those routes

devnull

Stephen15 wrote: »

25% of 60m is 15m so DB should have been given a direct award contract worth 75m. We are now paying 60m for DB and 34m for GA total 94m for Dublin city bus services for GA and DB versus 75m for a direct award DB contract.

Go-Ahead doesn't get a subsidy, it has a contract which is €34m a year which includes everything. It does not take any income in fares as that goes to the NTA.

Dublin Bus got €60m of subsidy to bridge the gap between fares and the cost of running the service which when all added together comes to €296m before adding in any extra grants.

If it wasn't for the fares income, Dublin Bus would have lost well over €200m in 2016.

devnull

Stephen15 wrote: »

And how much will the NTA be getting from the fare revenue on those routes

All the revenue goes to the NTA.

Stephen15

devnull wrote: »

Go-Ahead doesn't get a subsidy, it has a contract which is €34m a year which is technically something completely different in financial terms.

Dublin Bus got €60m of subsidy to bridge the gap between fares and the cost of running the service which when all added together comes to €296m.

All well and good but how much of the fare revenue is going to GA through the 34m contract and how much will go to the NTA

VWD8

Various parts of all your analysis is incorrect.

Dublin Bus 2016 Annual Report (100% of services)
PSO Revenue 220m (Page 43 Social Services revenue, previous posts here were including tours revenue which is irrelevant)
Subsidy 60m (page 43)
Total 280m
Assume 10% tendered equals 10% of total cost = 28m

Go-Ahead 10%
Total Cost 172m/5 = 34.4m a year

That would make Go-Ahead 22-23% more expensive.

Cost of buses is irelevant as NTA buys buses for both companies.

Above result should be no surprise as it was reported in the press at the time that Dublin Bus’s bid was cheaper.
Yes we don’t know how much they bid but they wouldn’t bid more then say 10% of their total income above (unless they were daft or tying to make mega bucks on it). Only incentive would be to go lower to try and win the contract, which didn’t work anyway.

devnull

VWD8 wrote: »

Assume 10% tendered equals 10% of total cost = 28m

That's an extremely poor assumption to be honest.

Orbital routes in Dublin are never going to be as cheap to run, or bring in as much revenue as ones that are going to and from the city center - this is not a 10% random selection of routes, far from it, it probably contains a very high percentage of the most expensive routes to run and the heaviest loss making in the DB Stable.

If you had a route by route breakdown of the costs in DB then you'd be able to make a better comparison, but the 10% of routes that are going to Go-Ahead are in no way shape or form representative of Dublin Bus as a whole - there was clear selection bias involved rather than taking a 10% sample that was representative of DB as a whole.

Yes we don’t know how much they bid but they wouldn’t bid more then say 10% of their total income above (unless they were daft or tying to make mega bucks on it).

We don't know how much they bid so therefore we cannot very accurately compare the cost of the two operators.

VWD8

devnull wrote: »

That's an extremely poor assumption to be honest, because orbital routes in Dublin are never going to be as cheap to run, or bring in as much revenue as ones that are going to and from the city center - this is not a 10% random selection of routes, far from it, it probably contains a very high percentage of the most expensive routes to run and with the least revenue.

We don't know how much they bid so therefore we cannot very accurately compare the cost of the two operators.

I agree with you that it is a poor assumption. Let’s face it the routes tendered out are a lucky bag. They might be 10% of routes but I doubt they account for as much as 10% of Dublin Bus revenue and conversely the subsidy is higher but that would be just to get to break even where as obviously Dublin Bus operate some very profitable routes that have a much bigger share of revenue.

On that basis the 22-23% price difference may be very conservative!

devnull

VWD8 wrote: »

On that basis the 22-23% price difference may be very conservative!

First of all can you explain to me how you have come to the figure of 10%

What is the size of the Dublin Bus fleet now?

antoinolachtnai

devnull wrote: »

First of all can you explain to me how you have come to the figure of 10%

What is the size of the Dublin Bus fleet now?

End 2016 it was 989. This included commercial services. Commercial services are 5 percent of revenue so if they are 5 percent of vehicles that would be 940 buses on the PSO services.

VWD8

devnull wrote: »

First of all can you explain to me how you have come to the figure of 10%

What is the size of the Dublin Bus fleet now?

The point I was making is that the cash cow routes are hugely inflating the Dublin Bus revenue figure used in the calculation above. Therefore saying the 10% would generate 10% of this revenue would be well off the mark.

As you correctly said though subsidy is obviously higher. But as I said that exists to just get to break even. The ratio of revenue to subsidy is 80:20 anyway so I think it is obvious that the revenue aspect would outweigh the subvention part anyway.