Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Not a chance. It was very effective for my Apr 01 prediction. Once I prove its accuracy again on May 01 I will be monetizing it.

I will be providing a discount for boards.ie posters so stay tuned.

I’d charge em double, Pad. Every shovel and sluice box merchant in the crypto space is doing the same. Lots of easy money floating around.

My own prediction is a rather more conservative 6700.

Debtocracy

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Changed a few variables in the equation based on some of my technical analyses.

We'll see whether PPL is right come May 01st.

Anyone here care to make their prediction.

I'm very bearish about the whole crypto scene as I've outlined once or twice, but there is likely to be a short-lived bull run in the next two weeks.

My numbers are also showing a bull run

Dohnjoe

Debtocracy wrote: »

My numbers are also showing a bull run

My favorite TA has to be on Coinbase.com

We get this complex, jargon filled analysis which concludes that x coin will jump x percent higher

and directly underneath, some more TA concluding that the coin could also go down

My maths isn't strong, but something tells me their TA has a 50/50 chance of being correct

Thargor

Coinbase.com?

Presume he meant tradingview or coindesk.

The correlation between a spike in Bitcoin prices and the printing of tethers is as plain as the nose on your face. So without having access to the information about when the honchos in Tether/Bitfinex are planning to do so, you don’t have any ability to do meaningful technical analysis. Might as well ask your cat for advice.

https://www.coindesk.com/big-fail-tether-might-still-cryptos-ticking-time-bomb/

"Tether is the only 'cryptocurrency' with trading volume that regularly exceeds that of its market cap. This means the entire Tether supply changes hands regularly, sometimes more than once a day. ... This is important to know because it tells us that Tether is used for trading A LOT. It's one of the main sources of liquidity in the cryptomarkets. Liquidity is the lifeblood of a market. It's what makes prices stable and seamless trading possible. The consequences could be far-reaching. What happens if Tether does turn out to be shaky? ... What if this large source of liquidity suddenly evaporates?"

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What happens if Tether does turn out to be shaky? ... What if this large source of liquidity suddenly evaporates?"

Hopefully DAI gets introduced to more exchanges and Tether use drops, but I do wonder how that will go even if Tether was backed by dollars - Btifinex would either have to honour the dollar amount so people could escape or they'd get dragged down to nothing but the dollars (if we pretend they exist) would still be there. Can't figure out what would happen. Could be the ultimate Bitfinex bluff-call.

makeorbrake

Not sure how it would blow up (?) but if Tether crashed out tomorrow, what would be the likely price of bitcoin?

Maybe some people will be super-thick about it, fall for the FUD and start selling BTC but if people are trying to get out of Tether they'll be racing into BTC first so we could see the mother of all pumps as a lot of people will have orders set to sell at benchmark BTC prices all the way up and they'll automatically be selling into Tether and then they'll want to dump that, rinse, repeat.

grindle wrote: »

Maybe some people will be super-thick about it, fall for the FUD and start selling BTC but if people are trying to get out of Tether they'll be racing into BTC first so we could see the mother of all pumps as a lot of people will have orders set to sell at benchmark BTC prices all the way up and they'll automatically be selling into Tether and then they'll want to dump that, rinse, repeat.

Much more likely the price will crash very fast making tether worthless and not worth any BTC. The shmucks with tether will be left hodling the bag. The knock on will be a massive loss in confidence in all cryptos including BTC. Massive price corrections as people who think it's a useful store of wealth get a kick up the hole.

Autochange

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Much more likely the price will crash very fast making tether worthless and not worth any BTC. The shmucks with tether will be left hodling the bag. The knock on will be a massive loss in confidence in all cryptos including BTC. Massive price corrections as people who think it's a useful store of wealth get a kick up the hole.

Either that or BTC has found its bottom and will rise again to all time highs. Let's watch and see

Autochange wrote: »

Either that or BTC has found its bottom and will rise again to all time highs. Let's watch and see

I've given my prediction. Short term gains for BTC followed by a major correction.

I would advise most people to cash out this summer.

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Much more likely the price will crash very fast making tether worthless and not worth any BTC. The shmucks with tether will be left hodling the bag. The knock on will be a massive loss in confidence in all cryptos including BTC. Massive price corrections as people who think it's a useful store of wealth get a kick up the hole.

How will the price crash so fast without having buys triggered? What will people be running into from Tether on the exchange?
There will be Tether bagholders at some point but whatever coins people run into will get a huge boost from the set orders on the books. Traders aren't waiting on the exchanges setting their orders live and listening out for bad Tether news on the wire, they're generally set in advance at levels they hope they can sell at to then rebuy lower.

There probably would be a BTC/crypto correction because people in a panic (who've bought more than they can lose?) seem to turn simple - not that I think BTC deserves it's inflated value or anything but Tether being shown up as a scam doesn't affect BTC's (dwindling) fundamentals at all, it's a separate issue.

Tether makes up an enormous percentage of the liquidity in the bitcoin market. If that’s not there then prices will fall.

grindle wrote: »

How will the price crash so fast without having buys triggered? What will people be running into from Tether on the exchange?
There will be Tether bagholders at some point but whatever coins people run into will get a huge boost from the set orders on the books. Traders aren't waiting on the exchanges setting their orders live and listening out for bad Tether news on the wire, they're generally set in advance at levels they hope they can sell at to then rebuy lower.

There probably would be a BTC/crypto correction because people in a panic (who've bought more than they can lose?) seem to turn simple - not that I think BTC deserves it's inflated value or anything but Tether being shown up as a scam doesn't affect BTC's (dwindling) fundamentals at all, it's a separate issue.

People will rush to BTC very quickly causing the price of tether to drop drastically. BTC may see a temporary boost as a result. Most exchanges will put a stop of tether/btc trades and people who didn't get out quick enough will be left hodling.

In the meantime the liquidity which fuels the whole market will have dried up. No market liquidity is serious sh1t. People will start to try and convert BTC to fiat. The price will crash hard.

You know this is coming and to be fair you welcome it as the market can normalize again after.

In my opinion confidence in crypto will be so shook badly the market will be irrevocably damaged by tether.

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

I've given my prediction. Short term gains for BTC followed by a major correction.

I would advise most people to cash out this summer.

The whales must be reading your posts, Patrick. Big drop in the past 30 minutes.

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

In my opinion confidence in crypto will be so shook badly the market will be irrevocably damaged by tether.

Irrevocably damaged? From something as pithy as Tether?
A competing technology that's just as revolutionary, maybe.
Do you ever read anything into crypto beyond the price-action and scam stories? The only thing that could kill it is something better than it. Not all alts are trying to be the next Bitcoin, this tech has uses well beyond a simple currency or gold disruptor.

grindle wrote: »

Irrevocably damaged? From something as pithy as Tether?
A competing technology that's just as revolutionary, maybe.
Do you ever read anything into crypto beyond the price-action and scam stories? The only thing that could kill it is something better than it. Not all alts are trying tn the next Bitcoin, this tech has uses well beyond a simple currency or gold disruptor.

People keep saying that. But give me one example of blockchain being more effective than p2p or even a controlled distributed ledger. Even at that. Even if blockchain was the greatest technology ever, how the heck is hodling a token belonging to a blockchain company going to make you rich?

h0neybadger

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

how the heck is hodling a token belonging to a blockchain company going to make you rich?

14 months ago, I was working 50 hours a week for 40k a year before tax.

I took my messily savings of €5k, and bought Crypto.

14 months later, I run own and run a mining farm for BTC and some altCoins, and I have enough to pay myself 40k a year for the foreseeable future even if Crypto tanks and fades away.

I’ve done this, solely by buying and holding certain tokens of blockchain companies.

h0neybadger wrote: »

14 months ago, I was working 50 hours a week for 40k a year before tax.

I took my messily savings of €5k, and bought Crypto.

14 months later, I run own and run a mining farm for BTC and some altCoins, and I have enough to pay myself 40k a year for the foreseeable future even if Crypto tanks and fades away.

I’ve done this, solely by buying and holding certain tokens of blockchain companies.

Thought I was on ignore?

Well done if you've made money from crypto. Genuinely. Kudos. I love to see another fella making a few quid. So hats off to you son.

However I'll have to disagree with part of your statement. You say you've mined enough to pay yourself enough for 40k a year for the foreseeable. Unless you crystallized your gains and converted to fiat then that is completely untrue. Otherwise you just have a load of imaginary token which you wasted electricity making. If you have converted to fiat then the inevitable question is why? We all know the answer.

If crypto fades away(which it will), the only way you'll make money is by selling your GPUs to neckbeard gamers or using them to crack passwords.

Anthracite

h0neybadger wrote: »

14 months ago, I was working 50 hours a week for 40k a year before tax.

I took my messily savings of €5k, and bought Crypto.

14 months later, I run own and run a mining farm for BTC and some altCoins, and I have enough to pay myself 40k a year for the foreseeable future even if Crypto tanks and fades away.

I’ve done this, solely by buying and holding certain tokens of blockchain companies.

Ignore this if you think it's intrusive, but I'm curious - where will the 40k per year come from if Crypto 'tanks'?

Thanks!

Autochange

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

I've given my prediction. Short term gains for BTC followed by a major correction.

I would advise most people to cash out this summer.

I have noted your advice and i have decided to completely disregard it.

WhiteMemento9

Big drop in BTC land is now a couple of hundred dollars :P

Autochange wrote: »

I have noted your advice and i have decided to completely disregard it.

Care to post your 2 week prediction for BTC?

h0neybadger

A large part of my portfolio is in Crypto still.

I have cashed out some over the past few months, enough to set myself up if things go really bad for Crypto.

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

People keep saying that. But give me one example of blockchain being more effective than p2p or even a controlled distributed ledger. Even at that. Even if blockchain was the greatest technology ever, how the heck is hodling a token belonging to a blockchain company going to make you rich?

Not sure what you mean by P2P. Western Union? Moneygram? Those companies who're starting to use blockchain to bring their own costs down?
Cryptos can be and are the ideal P2P money, the reason they need to be cryptographically secure is so we know what amount there is and where and the purpose of being decentralised is because we all must be able to agree on what has happened in order to move forward without having to trust a third party who could be paid off by one party (favourable terms, etc etc) or have nefarious motives (anti-competitive price-fixing, likelihood of monopoly).

Centrally distributed ledgers certainly exist, but anything that needs to be public-facing will be commited to the main chain.
Why on earth would people want to hold these tokens?
If the token for that chain is in great demand but being held by people who think it will be in demand... I shouldn't need to finish that. Supply-Demand. Very simple.

Bear in mind Ethereum is nowhere near finished yet, it's a couple of years away from being production-ready but when it is it will have over 100 times the throughput it currently has. Conservatively. And using much less energy thanks to PoS.
Plasma MVP has hit about 5k tx per second on testnet (Plasma MVP allows smart contract functionality), use of Plasma Cash (ETH sidechain/state channels) for dumb/simple currency-alike payments will dwarf that throughput. Plasma Cash is aiming to scale to billions per second. We'll see, but Ethereum devs tend hit the mark fairly often if a little late (Casssssssssperrrrrrrrr, where arrrrrre yooooooouuuuu?) and it's likely research into Plasma Cash's yet-unthought-of functionalities after the fact will benefit Plasma and Ethereum as a whole.

Hey, let's check some quotes and stuff!

The energy industry has become more complex as new entities have entered the industry, ING representative Carolien van der Giessen told CoinDesk in an email, explaining:

"Earlier this year another joint initiative among some members of the consortium (ING, Mercuria, and Societe Generale) presented compelling results with what we understand to be the first blockchain prototype test in the sector. The experiment involved an oil cargo shipment containing African crude oil which was on its way to China. The results of the experiment demonstrated that a blockchain based platform can greatly improve the efficiency of certain processes."

I mean, that's just an initiative made up of BP, Shell, Statoil, ABN Amro, Societe Generale and ING, so what do THEY know, right? They're just trialling these things to waste money more efficiently.

The UN using the Ethereum chain to safely distribute and track aid to Syrians in June last year. They're still using it to this day along with UNFCC hoping to use it to keep countries in sync with eachother re: the Paris Agreement on climate action... and connecting various sideprojects together to collaborate on blockchain...oh and more ands (the UN are crazy about this shít, sorry!) UNICEF have set up a kind of bursary for blockchain projects. Probably wasting their time though, amirite?

Weird, a Norwegian hotel company trialling reservations and payments on a public blockchain. Only 190 hotels to roll out to unfortunately, small potatoes. One can only hope a larger company in the same industr...Wait, what's this?
TUI Tourism - the largest leisure, travel and tourism company in the world with $18b in revenue trialling Ethereum? Spiced baby Christ on a skewer, I cannae believe it.
Choice quote from their CEO (he seems oddly convinced, maybe like he's bothered reading anything about it - though he is a software engineer to be fair:

“Almost every big company is currently working on this technology. Blockchain [technology] is not on the internet, it will be the internet. The network becomes non-hierarchical. So far, there were a few privileged users on the Internet and many stupid. Now we are talking about the democratization of all information structures.”

But I'll send all these guys your deets because you know better, yeah?

smacl

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Much more likely the price will crash very fast making tether worthless and not worth any BTC. The shmucks with tether will be left hodling the bag. The knock on will be a massive loss in confidence in all cryptos including BTC. Massive price corrections as people who think it's a useful store of wealth get a kick up the hole.

From my understanding, and as per this article on Hacker noon, people aren't actually holding much tether though. The big quantities held are actually exchange wallets, where the vast quantity of transactions are down to tether being constantly recycled. If tether were to show signs of failing, my guess is the short term effect would be for BTC and ETH prices to jump, followed by a steady decline to a new stable level as traders try to get fiat stability using other mechanisms or exchanges with fiat pairs.

Chancer3001

For me , tether bosses have found a way to get free Bitcoin and thus free fiat

They can print new tether whenever they want. Print millions, buy loads of Bitcoin. Sell when price rises for fiat.

They never have to prove to anyone that real dollars came in in the first place

Either the truth will be investigated or tether themselves will dump the coin and it'll crash the price of almost every coin

Whether or not coins th recover is another thing