FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

As you said it's fantasy island, but what percentage would you give of that fantasy becoming a reality? Ye were all spot on about the current weather nearly 2 weeks ago, same with the snow

I'd say it has an above average chance over a "very poor" spell of weather i.e. southerly tracking jet stream, cold and very wet, so more than 50% but I'm not raising any bets here. Above average because of how the pattern seems to be going into May with the Azores High and the Icelandic Low.

What made me so confident on the beast from the east was the unusual behaviour of the stratosphere and the warming events that had occurred. With the record breaking reversed zonal winds, it was like next to impossible that a cold spell wasn't coming, it was. I hadn't seen such crazy reversed zonal winds. 1985 was the last similar occurrence to the SSW event in February 2018 and that was followed by a very cold and snowy spell in mid-January then some further cold and snowy days into February and March. This time, I don't have something like a stratospheric warming to help me gain confidence in forecasting, the best I have is the strength of the Azores High and Icelandic Low.

Ultimate Seduction

sryanbruen wrote: »

Wouldn't worry too much about it for the moment. The models yesterday evening were pointing at transient high pressure ascending from the south during that period well into FI just to show ya. We don't call it Fantasy Island for nothing.

One or two GFS ensembles point the NAO and AO into negative territory into early May whilst the majority go for positive to neutral indexes. This means that the Azores High should be decently strong with transient ridges being sent up to us from time to time in our usual zonal pattern and any blocking that does try to occur will be very weak. Therefore, cold will have a hard time getting to us.

Just a reminder, May is the most easterly month of the year on average and if any easterlies that do occur, they're quite hit and miss with how our weather goes. It depends on other factors such as the sea surface temperatures which have warmed up significantly yesterday and will continue to do so for a few days before flat lining, this is only good for warmth.

I wouldn't read too much into the models for now and what happens after next week.

As you said it's fantasy island, but what percentage would you give of that fantasy becoming a reality? Ye were all spot on about the current weather nearly 2 weeks ago, same with the snow

Wouldn't worry too much about it for the moment. The models yesterday evening were pointing at transient high pressure ascending from the south during that period well into FI just to show ya. We don't call it Fantasy Island for nothing.

One or two GFS ensembles point the NAO and AO into negative territory into early May whilst the majority go for positive to neutral indexes. This means that the Azores High should be decently strong with transient ridges being sent up to us from time to time in our usual zonal pattern and any blocking that does try to occur will be very weak. Therefore, cold will have a hard time getting to us.

Just a reminder, May is the most easterly month of the year on average and if any easterlies that do occur, they're quite hit and miss with how our weather goes. It depends on other factors such as the sea surface temperatures which have warmed up significantly yesterday and will continue to do so for a few days before flat lining, this is only good for warmth.

I wouldn't read too much into the models for now and what happens after next week.

PukkaStukka

Attachment not found.

No, this isn't even remotely funny :mad:

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

What an absoulte heap of sh*te. Goes to show you can maks up any old lie nowadays.

Bizarre FB page. Seems to be into the Trumpian model of making up a load of ****e to gain followers and then sprinkling it with particular political/social views.

What an absoulte heap of sh*te. Goes to show you can maks up any old lie nowadays.

giveitholly

Is it showing much rainfall with these cooler conditions

Looking cooler next week with weather from the Atlantic , air sourced more from a more Northerly aspect with a strong jet running along the S of Ireland keeping milder southern airs below us. Looks a breezy / windy week from the W and NW more so.

-5 uppers over the UK, nighttime subzero temperatures and hill snow for may anyone?

*Shudder*

Hopefully we will get a good shot of sunshine and decent enough warmth over the coming week as it doesn't look great going by the 0Z ECM from around Mon 23 for a few days at least . Long way off and subject to change but showing Ireland under the influence of a large area of LP to the NW /N and am thinking it could be quite wet and windy with a mix of warm humid airs coming up from an Azores High mixing with the colder airs coming from the LP being directed towards us and aided by a vigorous Jet in over Ireland. GFS showing more benign weather those few days. Will see.

Kermit.de.frog

On the latest UKMO we would be looking at 18 - 20c maxes under clear skies away from exposed coasts where 13 - 15c would be more likely. The risk of coastal mist and fog as well.

Still evolving though and it will be interesting to see whether we can keep the stability longer on later model runs.

Artane2002

Daz_ wrote: »

I was talking about Ireland - I presumed the discussion would be centered around what’s going to happen here - not the UK

It is usually on the weather in Ireland but this warm spell would have greater effect on the UK than here so naturally you would expect people to talk about their weather. I'll try to make it clear where I'm referring to whenever I post.

Daz_

I was talking about Ireland - I presumed the discussion would be centered around what’s going to happen here - not the UK

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah right. Still, 29c would be the top top of estimates and unlikely to be achieved at this stage.

London regularly gets that in the summer though.

Yeah it does regularly reach 28 or 29c during the summer. I hope you're right about it being unlikely to reach that next week

Artane2002 wrote: »

I think Nacho is based in London.

Ah right. Still, 29c would be the top top of estimates and unlikely to be achieved at this stage.

London regularly gets that in the summer though.

Artane2002

JCX BXC wrote: »

29c? In Ireland?

Nope, they would be all sorts of record breaking in April.

I think Nacho is based in London.

Xenji

25.8C in 1984 would be the warmest recorded in April.

nacho libre wrote: »

Not for me, 29c is too warm. 20 - 22 c would be alright.

29c? In Ireland?

Nope, they would be all sorts of record breaking in April.

Daz_ wrote: »

A most welcome “shock” for the majority and let’s hope it does last long .

Not for me, 29c is too warm. 20 - 22 c would be alright.

Daz_

nacho libre wrote: »

.
That will be quite a shock to the system if it happens after this long winter.
Right now it's cool and overcast. I hope the heat doesn't last long and ends with some beefy thunderstorms.

A most welcome “shock” for the majority and let’s hope it does last long .

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Looking wet and windy next weekend into the early days of next week but dragging up that milder Southerly air with it.

The Jet coming from a deep Southerly direction taking a Northern route around the expected HP over Europe next week.

By next Weds /Thurs hopefully in a SE'ly /E'ly airflow coming across from a warming mainland Europe.

I wonder as a consequence of this air being drawn up over us, could we see the unseasonably warm weather being followed by a cold spell to end the month?

sryanbruen wrote: »

Yes, the upgrades are continuing with extreme warmth extending into the Friday and Saturday of next week too for the UK whilst high teens for Ireland.

It would be mad to beat the April record of 29.4c from April 1949 in the UK with sea surface temperatures like the current ones. I wish the NOAA SST archive went back to 1949 so we could see what the situation was like back then but unfortunately can't.

.
That will be quite a shock to the system if it happens after this long winter.
Right now it's cool and overcast. I hope the heat doesn't last long and ends with some beefy thunderstorms.

Looking wet and windy next weekend into the early days of next week but dragging up that milder Southerly air with it.

The Jet coming from a deep Southerly direction taking a Northern route around the expected HP over Europe next week.

By next Weds /Thurs hopefully in a SE'ly /E'ly airflow coming across from a warming mainland Europe.

Like the look of the temperatures for a few days from about mid week +168 next week going by the ECM , of course it is still a bit off to be sure.

Looks like we clipped by those weather systems which keeps off the west coast next Sun/ Mon, looks blustery and wet and could get quite windy next Mon (+ 126 ). Hopefully things settle after that a bit so we can enjoy a bit of warmth.

Ultimate Seduction

Artane2002 wrote: »

GFS 12z showed temperatures of 26C in London and since it underestimates surface temps it might be between 27-29C. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet but it could be an outlier.

Edit: the date for that is the 19th.

Feck London, how hot will it be in North county cork

Yes, the upgrades are continuing with extreme warmth extending into the Friday and Saturday of next week too for the UK whilst high teens for Ireland.

It would be mad to beat the April record of 29.4c from April 1949 in the UK with sea surface temperatures like the current ones. I wish the NOAA SST archive went back to 1949 so we could see what the situation was like back then but unfortunately can't.

Artane2002 wrote: »

GFS 12z showed temperatures of 26C in London and since it underestimates surface temps it might be between 27-29C. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet but it could be an outlier.

Would be near breaking a record if that's true.

Artane2002

GFS 12z showed temperatures of 26C in London and since it underestimates surface temps it might be between 27-29C. I haven't looked at the ensembles yet but it could be an outlier.

Edit: the date for that is the 19th.

patneve2

Still looking good for some summer like warmth in about a week according to the GFS. Hopefully the high won't drift too far to the east. 18C and unbroken sunshine would definitely feel amazing after the past few months!