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Property Market 2018

castle2012

With supply still very tight. A homeless problem. Rising employment. It sure looks like where set for more large rises. There's not much to suggest otherwise. Any thoughts?

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Creamy Goodness

Deleted User wrote: »

It is tough dealing with jealous people alright

I've nothing against Dundalk the area, but I've spent the last 20 years commuting just over an hour to Dublin from North Wicklow, so 45 minutes from Dundalk to Dublin is a bit of a pipe dream.

LirW

Fair enough. There's places have been on daft for a long ass time now so mayhaps people are sitting in them.

From my time looking there I noticed that everything that is without issues and in reasonable condition in Dundalk shifts fast, because it's still so much more reasonable and well enough connected to Dublin.
I really loved a house up there but it had unsolved legal issues so while advertised, the EA wouldn't actually take any offers on it. Bank was the seller and they had it advertised but weren't in a position to sell because of said issues.
Dundalk has a good few properties sitting around with legal issues that would only really suit cash buyers. If you're in the second hand market with everyone else it's tough knuckles.

That's my observation from a bit over a year ago.

[Deleted User]

ELM327 wrote: »

Agree with you re Dundalk... I would not suggest it as a good starter home area unless you knew what you were getting in to. Lots of anti social issues in a couple of the (mostly)ex council estates.

There's basically 2 estates to avoid completely and after that just hope you don't get a nightmare neighbour. :P

[Deleted User]

Eric Cartman wrote: »

can you tell me where these 45 mins from Dublin 130k houses are, please don't say louth, may aswell be on the moon

"Can you tell me something please? But don't tell me."

LirW wrote: »

Yeah, I looked at said 130k houses in Dundalk and when I asked for a viewing they were already under offer with approx. 30k over the asking. And not just one single example but a few of them.

Fair enough. There's places have been on daft for a long ass time now so mayhaps people are sitting in them.

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

one problem there though, you'd have to live in Dundalk.

It is tough dealing with jealous people alright.

Eric Cartman wrote: »

id literally rather cut my own ear off , I used to fit cctv and did a number of installs in Dundalk, a lot of social problems up there, especially among gangs of teenagers, and a massive issue with criminality from a certain wandering section of society too.

I'd guess the places with CCTV being installed are already the rough spots. Can't say I've noticed Dundalk being worse than elsewhere for the wanderers, usually only notice when the pubs are all closed. :P

ELM327

Eric Cartman wrote: »

can you tell me where these 45 mins from Dublin 130k houses are, please don't say louth, may aswell be on the moon

Athboy.
Navan. (Some areas).

Agree with you re Dundalk... I would not suggest it as a good starter home area unless you knew what you were getting in to. Lots of anti social issues in a couple of the (mostly)ex council estates.

Eric Cartman

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

one problem there though, you'd have to live in Dundalk.

id literally rather cut my own ear off , I used to fit cctv and did a number of installs in Dundalk, a lot of social problems up there, especially among gangs of teenagers, and a massive issue with criminality from a certain wandering section of society too.

Creamy Goodness

one problem there though, you'd have to live in Dundalk.

LirW

Deleted User wrote: »

The imbalance in the market is mental. Dublin looks to have gone completely bat**** insane. Outside Dublin is very different. Rents have gone mental again but property prices are still pretty low. You can get a decent 3-bedroom place 45 minutes from the airport for about €130k. Mortgage cost would be roughly half what the rent is. If only I had a deposit. :P

Yeah, I looked at said 130k houses in Dundalk and when I asked for a viewing they were already under offer with approx. 30k over the asking. And not just one single example but a few of them.

Eric Cartman

Deleted User wrote: »

The imbalance in the market is mental. Dublin looks to have gone completely bat**** insane. Outside Dublin is very different. Rents have gone mental again but property prices are still pretty low. You can get a decent 3-bedroom place 45 minutes from the airport for about €130k. Mortgage cost would be roughly half what the rent is. If only I had a deposit. :P

can you tell me where these 45 mins from Dublin 130k houses are, please don't say louth, may aswell be on the moon

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I think in the majority of cases a new 4 bed semi is no where near the size of a 4 bed semi from the 60s etc.

Also I cannot understand the energy efficiency thing in Ireland. It's mild enough April to Aug to the extent most folk need little to no heating.

The ones in the articles are in D15 & "“The homes carry guide prices of between €300,000 and €500,000 at the moment. They are three and four bed units, but we won’t know an exact price until Friday morning,” one man explained. He joined the queue early yesterday morning"

Surely €500k would buy a very decent and spaciius second hand 4 bed D15 house.

yes most new 4 bed semis are much bigger than the 1200 sq foot with 'converted' garage or attic add ons of the 60s semis.

And you must be very lucky i have been in plenty of freezing old houses in ireland, its not pleasant.

also, the vast majority of old housing stock in ireland needs extensive modernising from electrics to layout alterations to decor. people dont have the money to do it, thats why new builds that generally meed their requirements are more popular

Zenify

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

If true, I wonder what would happen in my case as I have been granted an exemption on a new build, signed, paid deposit & waiting to complete - are they going to retract?

He said they will be retracting mostly from applicants who are less active. He indicated that someone in the process of buying would be fine.

[Deleted User]

6541 wrote: »

That saying when everyone is buying into stock market then walk away. All the papers have glossy house supplements. Everyone is talking about property. I would say this can't go on.

The imbalance in the market is mental. Dublin looks to have gone completely bat**** insane. Outside Dublin is very different. Rents have gone mental again but property prices are still pretty low. You can get a decent 3-bedroom place 45 minutes from the airport for about €130k. Mortgage cost would be roughly half what the rent is. If only I had a deposit. :P

6541

That saying when everyone is buying into stock market then walk away. All the papers have glossy house supplements. Everyone is talking about property. I would say this can't go on.

[Deleted User]

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Depends where they decide to build them. Outside Dublin there's still some value to be had and there's places that are unlikely to ever lose more than 15-20k in value unless things get so bad that we're in a situation that you need to board up doors and windows anyway. :P
The crash is a while away yet, I don't see a load of half-done building sites being abandoned in 18 months within an hour of Dublin.

Eric Cartman

Colonel Claptrap wrote: »

Think about what you are suggesting.

Let's say you and I sell iPhones to the Irish public. We have the market sewn up, no competition. If somebody wants to buy an iPhone they have to go through us.

We get together and decide to control the price by restricting supply. Only 100 iPhones can be bought this year, 50 from you and 50 for me. We charge 10k for a phone and people are queuing up for days to get them. We're making crazy money and there are thousands of people, ready and waiting with cash to buy one.

But, why don't I sell a few more? You won't know. And even if you did, you can't sue me because what we're doing is illegal.

You have to trust me and I have to trust you. But there's nothing stopping either of us from selling a few more. Or hundreds more. Or fulfilling demand entirely.

Now imagine there are dozens, or even hundreds of other businesses who can sell iphones to the masses. We'd all have to trust each other. Anyone who wanted to sell phones would have to be part of our cartel. If 1 guy wanted to sell unlimited iphones he could make a killing and there's absolutely nothing we could do to stop him.

This 'restriction of supply' notion has been thrown around here a few times. It makes no sense when demand is this frothy.

+1 , there are lots of people who would love to be a 'have a go hero' at property developing, loads of developers trying to get projects done, Johnny ronin has eyes on demolishing half of Dublin 2 and rebuilding it in his image. The supply constraint is mostly caused by land zoning , slow planning process and the stupidly high council contributions.

you can't rent a heavy digger, van, road sweeper or self drive dump truck at short notice for love nor money at the moment. All of the construction tools in the country are currently in use.

Galwayforliam

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

Belarmine Woods Stepaside final phase launching this weekend- probably queues starting tomorrow? One of the show houses 4-bed semi sold for €640k which is the same spec as new ones lunching- is this the new benchmark?!

Colonel Claptrap

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

Think about what you are suggesting.

Let's say you and I sell iPhones to the Irish public. We have the market sewn up, no competition. If somebody wants to buy an iPhone they have to go through us.

We get together and decide to control the price by restricting supply. Only 100 iPhones can be bought this year, 50 from you and 50 for me. We charge 10k for a phone and people are queuing up for days to get them. We're making crazy money and there are thousands of people, ready and waiting with cash to buy one.

But, why don't I sell a few more? You won't know. And even if you did, you can't sue me because what we're doing is illegal.

You have to trust me and I have to trust you. But there's nothing stopping either of us from selling a few more. Or hundreds more. Or fulfilling demand entirely.

Now imagine there are dozens, or even hundreds of other businesses who can sell iphones to the masses. We'd all have to trust each other. Anyone who wanted to sell phones would have to be part of our cartel. If 1 guy wanted to sell unlimited iphones he could make a killing and there's absolutely nothing we could do to stop him.

This 'restriction of supply' notion has been thrown around here a few times. It makes no sense when demand is this frothy.

Bargain_Hound

Zenify wrote: »

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

If true, I wonder what would happen in my case as I have been granted an exemption on a new build, signed, paid deposit & waiting to complete - are they going to retract?

[Deleted User]

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Hmm. My brother lives in Germany and he would agree with only some of that. Far away fields. Let’s see what you think in a few years there.

+1

I was in chemnitz for a month in 2017, Austria for 2 months in 2017 ......... zero temptation to live anywhere near either locations.

I'm currently in austria again........ Ireland is a fine spot in comparison IMO

[Deleted User]

Cyrus wrote: »

no its relatively affordable houses that are brand new, makes sense instead of over paying for an old house that will need 100-150k spent on it to get it to the same size and energy efficiency

I think in the majority of cases a new 4 bed semi is no where near the size of a 4 bed semi from the 60s etc.

Also I cannot understand the energy efficiency thing in Ireland. It's mild enough April to Aug to the extent most folk need little to no heating.

The ones in the articles are in D15 & "“The homes carry guide prices of between €300,000 and €500,000 at the moment. They are three and four bed units, but we won’t know an exact price until Friday morning,” one man explained. He joined the queue early yesterday morning"

Surely €500k would buy a very decent and spaciius second hand 4 bed D15 house.

Cyrus

Zenify wrote: »

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

i presume they want to use their exemptions so if people are sitting on them they will grant them to someone who is ready to use it immediately (i.e. buying a new build)

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Zenify

Just got a call from my mortgage broker that banks are going to pull a lot of exemptions.

Reduce the amount of new ones and even retract some already given that have not drawn down. I have an exemption and that's why he was telling me.

This could be a ploy to encourage me to buy asap so he gets his commission but he said I would see in in the news over the next few days.

It could also be a sign that business is slowing down and he needs to make money. What are people's thoughts?

Arthur Daley

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

No chance of this amount being built. My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

That's just called business. The problem is just like 2006/2007 employers get to a point where they can/will no longer pay the high prices for labour. Busting the cycle again. If these punters don't get pay hikes they cannot afford Dublin 15 homes that start at €300,000.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

MayoSalmon wrote: »

Supply Bubble?? aka 80,000 houses to get built next year as there is no credit bubble to burst this time round.

No chance of this amount being built. My conspiracy theory hat would say that developers are deliberately building slowly so the market won't get flooded with a heap of houses at once. It suits them grand to build at a sedate pace.

MayoSalmon

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Supply Bubble?? aka 80,000 houses to get built next year as there is no credit bubble to burst this time round.

Cyrus

no its relatively affordable houses that are brand new, makes sense instead of over paying for an old house that will need 100-150k spent on it to get it to the same size and energy efficiency

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

Buy what you can afford that suits you're needs for 10 years or more. If the arse does fall out of it then it doesn't really matter. For what it's worth I think prices will continue to climb for the foreseeable future. No supply, absolutely boat loads of demand and as rents climb this will only drive demand. With the population of the country expected to rise by 1 million in the coming decades that demand isn't going anywhere.

Was only discussing with a friend there that I reckon we're entering a stage where people will pass on renting altogether. They'll live with the folks as long as possible and buy straight away. Obviously only practical if you can get work near you're folks house.

Eric Cartman

for f*ck sake.... this tells me its the exact wrong time to buy a house , we're at 'that' part of the cycle again,

end 2019 and we're going to have a load of half finished estates and the bubble will burst again.

MayoSalmon

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-desperate-househunters-queue-outside-new-dublin-development-days-ahead-of-sale-36792964.html

Nothing new to see here...

Market is well and truly slowing down:pac::pac: