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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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EdgeCase

They seem to have a notion that Enda was somehow a very polite and mailable kind of Taoiseach. I think it was more a case that Brexit hadn't kicked in to the same extent when he was in office so, naturally enough the relationship was far more positive.

Leo probably isn't as polite, which frankly, isn't necessarily a bad thing. They seem to be genuinely irked and surprised by Ireland not just rolling over and being walked on.

I don't think Ireland's every had a positive relationship with this narrow aspect of Tory England and I can't really see any point in attempting to build one. They only understand tabloid bullying language.

This isn't the Tory Party of Major's era. Even Thatcher was easier to deal with. She may have been tough but she was ruthlessly logical. These guys are just unbelievable. It's all rhetoric and no facts.

My view of it is just batten down the hatches until the next UK general elections.

If the DUP had an ounce of sense or an understanding that they need to act in Northern Ireland's broader interests, they'd pick a non Brexit topic, save face and use it to pull the plug.

Restoring the status quo would be the absolute best scenario.

FrancieBrady

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It has been the policy of successive Irish governments to push for greater integration between North and South. Kenny's government were distracted somewhat by cheap political games regarding SF in the south, but you will not find an Irish Government that wants a tangible border; or that wants to hinder the free movement of people and trade across it. I don't really believe that our negotiating position on Brexit would be much different even under John Bruton or Enda Kenny. Or, at least, if they did try and take such a position they would be hammered by the opposition here to such an extent that it would make their stance untenable.

Davis is looking for chinks in the armour, he is not looking for capitulation.

I just don't buy the 'stupid' tag here, it has been a feature of utterances from London for too long now.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

It's a strategy they have pursued consistently ever since the Brexit vote, and not just with respect to Ireland. It has utterly failed them in every way. They are still pursuing it. They keep expecting to exploit divisions within the EU, but the divisions obstinately refuse to be exploited. As you point out it's an old strategy, but the British don't need an old strategy; they need an effective one.

How is sticking to this obviously ineffective strategy anything but stupid? When a strategy is proving useless, "keep trying!" is a pretty stupid way of responding. They need to find a different strategy - one which actually resonates with the people they need to influence, rather than one which appeals the the prejudices of the people they are trying to please.

Seriously, the notion that the British are supreme diplomats, masters of the dark arts of bamboozling the lesser breeds without the laws, has been pretty comprehensively exploded by the progress of the Brexit negotiations, which have been (from the British point of view) a shambolic parade of ineptitude and incompetence right from the get-go. You're letting your obvious distaste for John Bruton and the political tradition he represents blind you to the reality here, which is that at the present time the Republic enjoys much more competent, skilled and able political leadership than the UK does. (And, for the record, I think this would still be true if we had an election tomorrow, and a change of government.)

LuckyLloyd

It has been the policy of successive Irish governments to push for greater integration between North and South. Kenny's government were distracted somewhat by cheap political games regarding SF in the south, but you will not find an Irish Government that wants a tangible border; or that wants to hinder the free movement of people and trade across it. I don't really believe that our negotiating position on Brexit would be much different even under John Bruton or Enda Kenny. Or, at least, if they did try and take such a position they would be hammered by the opposition here to such an extent that it would make their stance untenable.

EdgeCase

I think you also have to realise they don't understand Irish politics. The concept of a proportionally elected parliament and parities in the opposition having constructive debates with the rest of the house, actively participating in committees and so on is an alien concept to the Tories in particular who only see things as "us" vs "them" and winner takes all.

They also don't understand that there isn't a unionist / pro Brexit point of view in any Irish political party. They're all coming from the same side on this - nobody wants a hard border and they're willing to play hard ball and use influence.

The UK has caused a major problem for Ireland that could actually cost lives. This isn't a game of party politics.

If he wants to further harden the Irish line on Brexit - he's going the right way about it. That's for sure.

FrancieBrady

oscarBravo wrote: »

Ah, now I see. I couldn't understand why you alone thought there was anything other than stupidity in Davis's approach, but now it makes sense: you're operating off the Republican caricature of Fine Gael as the Irish wing of the Tories.

I guess if there's anything that can make a stupid strategy seem smart, it's a stupid perspective on it.

From where I am standing, it isn't a caricature.

GalwayMark

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

Bruton is more enthusiastic about Europe these days and has been very critical of the brexiteers so no it won’t have the effect the British gov desires.

EdgeCase

What he'll do is cause issues with the EPP. This is being seen as utterly deluded commentary on the continent.

oscarBravo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Ah, now I see. I couldn't understand why you alone thought there was anything other than stupidity in Davis's approach, but now it makes sense: you're operating off the Republican caricature of Fine Gael as the Irish wing of the Tories.

I guess if there's anything that can make a stupid strategy seem smart, it's a stupid perspective on it.

FrancieBrady

mickoneill31 wrote: »

But who do you think would fall for it? The Irish government has being doing great in regards to Brexit. And I don't think they'd ever be accused (over here) of bowing to Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein are silent as they agree with the government and by staying silent they're getting what they want while the British government just dig a deeper and deeper hole for themselves.

Elements within FG will 'fall'... over themselves, not to be seen as anti-British i.e. the Bruton's.

Davis's utterances are clearly aimed at them. Divide and conquer...old as the hills strategy.

mickoneill31

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not if they fall for it.

Trimble is at a version of the same thing at the minute on Sean O'Rourke.

But who do you think would fall for it? The Irish government has being doing great in regards to Brexit. And I don't think they'd ever be accused (over here) of bowing to Sinn Fein

Sinn Fein are silent as they agree with the government and by staying silent they're getting what they want while the British government just dig a deeper and deeper hole for themselves.

Leroy42

But I do agree that this is the approach that is being followed. from the constant questioning of the need for the GFA, to now questioning the reasons behind the Irish governments stance.

I mean, seriously, the UK government is actually propped up by unionists and Davies has the gall to claim that a non government party in Ireland is in control?

They have tried to divide the EU itself, and as that hasn't paid off have moved on to try to take on the smaller nation. Lucky for Ireland (as I would be wary of our politicians ability to take the right approach) the GFA is an internationally registered agreement and as such places the onus on the UK to find a resolution to a problem they created.

Ireland's no1 option is for everything to stay the same.

Hurrache

Trimble on Sean O'Rourke just said he thinks there was a change in the attitude of the government since Kenny left and he said yes, and not for the better, and that he's already said enough on that.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

The political class in the UK really is the low of the low at the moment. We have a foreign secretary who, I mean Boris Johnson. He tried to claim that cutting the number of firefighters and engines actually will not reduce safety as stopping fires will negate that.

Then you have the current PM who was in charge when the government started cuts to police and would you believe it, they are having a crime problem and the home office has said the cuts most likely played a role. Add in the current Home Secretary who touts the same line as Boris Johnson, cuts has had no role in increasing crime numbers. This after a report she commissioned directly contradicts her position and she hasn't read the report. This despite it being out for more than a month.

So we have politicians, like David Davis, Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson, who are either lying on purpose (no shock David Davis he has been found out many times before) or they are incompetent. The really worrying thing for me is that they are lying and they are incompetent.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

No, he is stupid. There is no indication that SF has anywhere near the influence or support to be pulling the strings like he suggests. They are at around 16% in opinion polls, half of FG and about 8% behind FF.

Fianna Fail takes five point plunge in latest opinion poll

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

But there is nothing to apologise for.

Davies - Why are you doing this, just following SF?
FG - Well no, Brexit has the real possibility of wrecking both the NI and Ireland economies as well as putting the peace in danger. What else do you think we should do?

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

But it's a stupid ploy. Deploying a stupid ploy masterfully is still stupid.

Not if they fall for it.

Trimble is at a version of the same thing at the minute on Sean O'Rourke.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

But it's a stupid ploy. Deploying a stupid ploy masterfully is still stupid.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Is it though? SF have been almost silent on the issue, so to anyone in Ireland this will not make sense. I'm sure there is a cohort that will always want to be seen to be the opposite, but as mentioned it really isn't a tough decision.

Go all out to retain the current situation (no border, UK member of CU etc) or allow UK to get preferential treatment which could potentially destablise both the island itself and the EU as a whole upon which we have built our recent prosperity.

I am not talking about Irish policy on this. I am talking about what Davis is trying to do.
Not a chance does he really believe that SF are dictating policy by pressure or anything else.

If he can get the John Bruton's in FG almost apologising for objecting then he has them at a disadvantage. (or thinks he does)

It's a diplomatic play that the British are past masters at.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

I disagree. It's not smart diplomacy because the line he is taking is not likely to make IrlGov change its position, which is the outcome he wants. IrlGov is unbothered that the more dim-witted Brexiters think it is being anti-British; there is no advantage to them in currying favour with dim-witted Brexiters. Davis either shares the dim-witted Brexiter view here, in which case he is stupid, or he has failed to spot that the dim-witted Brexiter view has no traction with any constituency that can deliver anything that IrlGov wants, in which case he is, well, stupid.

Leroy42

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

Is it though? SF have been almost silent on the issue, so to anyone in Ireland this will not make sense. I'm sure there is a cohort that will always want to be seen to be the opposite, but as mentioned it really isn't a tough decision.

Go all out to retain the current situation (no border, UK member of CU etc) or allow UK to get preferential treatment which could potentially destablise both the island itself and the EU as a whole upon which we have built our recent prosperity.

FrancieBrady

Peregrinus wrote: »

If that is what he is trying to do, he is indeed very stupid. Nobody who knows anything about this imagines for an instant that IrlGov's stance on the border is motivated, in even the smallest degree, by anti-British sentiment. It is entirely driven by sober consideration of Ireland's best interests.

You can't appeal to someone's sense of shame about something unless they know or think they have some reason to be ashamed of that thing. Nobody in FG knows or thinks that they have any reason to be ashamed of prioritising an open border in Ireland, and if Davis imagines that they do he is simply delusional.

I think what he is trying to do is 'temper' the Irish gov's responses.

SF and FG (And everyone else in Ireland) want more or less the same things from the Brexit deal, if he can get Varadkar and Coveney trying to separate themselves from SF's stance for optics then he dilutes the language and the response.

It's smart diplomacy and we shouldn't fall for it.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

If that is what he is trying to do, he is indeed very stupid. Nobody who knows anything about this imagines for an instant that IrlGov's stance on the border is motivated, in even the smallest degree, by anti-British sentiment. It is entirely driven by sober consideration of Ireland's best interests.

You can't appeal to someone's sense of shame about something unless they know or think they have some reason to be ashamed of that thing. Nobody in FG knows or thinks that they have any reason to be ashamed of prioritising an open border in Ireland, and if Davis imagines that they do he is simply delusional.

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British.

I don't think he has the guile to even think of that angle, never mind try to go down it.

FrancieBrady

Davis is not stupid.

He is trying to play to the core FG 'shame' at being seen to be anti-British. John Bruton being the classic example of the type he is trying to get at.

sink

Hurrache wrote: »

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

It's very Trumpian. Despite the warnings from all sides and the decades of protracted and failed negotiation Trump claim healthcare in the US would be a breeze to solve. As soon as the folio gets put in front of him and he actually has to solve it, he asks 'who knew healthcare was so complicated' and blames everyone else under the sun for not delivering his promises. It's ridiculous Davis is an absolute clown.

Hurrache

So David Davis at a conference yesterday claimed he hadn't anticipated dealing with FG would be so tough around the border issue and blames a change in government (?!?) and the fact SF are pulling strings behind the scene. How utterly bizarre someone in his role is still so dumb when it comes to Irish politics, but a lot of it must be purposeful misinformation.

The Irish government was accused by David Davis of bowing to political pressure from Sinn Fein yesterday and allowing the party to encourage its hardline stance on Brexit.

The Brexit secretary said that Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, had allowed republican sentiment to play “a strong political role” in Brexit that had made it harder to resolve the impasse over the Northern Irish border. His claims were rejected by Dublin.

The row threatens to heighten tensions between the two governments amid talks aimed at resolving the border issue.

Five former Northern Ireland secretaries have written to The Times today to warn that a hard border “could threaten the very existence of the Good Friday agreement”.

Speaking at a conference in London, Mr Davis said…

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/983591658355818497

https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/983592690188242944

Peregrinus

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

Given that 44% of NI actually voted for Brexit, it's not hard to conceive that a lot of sub-optimal trade takes place on zealot-like ideological grounds.

Couple of thoughts:

1. There's no reason to think that this happens on any material scale.

2. To the extent that it does happen, there's no reason to think that it's only committed Unionists who make commercial decisions on this basis. There could equally be Nationalists who have an ideological preference for trading with the Republic.

3. So, one way or another, this is probably a wash, or close to it.

Econ_

Labour frontbencher Barry Gardiner shows Kate Hoey and Daniel Hannan how to really bash the GFA;

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43706473?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews

Surely there'll be huge pressure on Corbyn to sack him from the shadow cabinet after his swift dismissal of Owen Smith for a far lesser offence.

Capt'n Midnight

Why does home insurance always get more expensive?
It's a question that affects every home owner.

But you'll have to longer wait for an answer, and action on it because Brexit is taking £30m funds from the City regulator.

The City regulator has said it is facing a £30m Brexit bill in the year running up to the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

The Financial Conduct Authority will ditch "non-critical" work to find £14m, while the rest will come from reserves and fees from the financial industry.

Brexit has knock on effects.

also
Rise in numbers of Britons becoming EU citizens in 201

Capt'n Midnight

Econ_ wrote: »

I know next to nothing about N-S trade but I wonder if there are many hard nosed Unionists that choose to trade with GB more based more ideology rather than convenience.

“Our people may be British, but our cows are Irish…”
- Ian Paisley.