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Donald Trump Presidency discussion thread III

Quin_Dub

This thread is for the continuing discussion of Donald Trumps's presidency in the US and any related matters.

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Peregrinus

enfant terrible wrote: »

Think Mueller has veered too far off Russia now and Trump is gonna fire him.

Looks like he's more interested in getting dirt on Trump than finding collusion.

That's squarely within his terms of reference, though. His brief is to investigate not just "any links and/or coordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump", but also "any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation". So if his investigations turn up, say, undisclosed campaign contributions, he gets to investigate those, even if they are not campaign contributions from the Russian government. And of course the issue here is whether the payment to Daniels, intended to benefit Trump by avoiding embarrassment in the run-up to the election, was a campaign contribution.

There's a dilemma for Trump here. If Trump himself funded the payment to Daniels, that's not a campaign contribution that needs to be declared. But if, as both Trump and Cohen claim, Cohen funded it, then it probably is. (A campaign contribution doesn't have to be paid to the campaign; it's enough that it's paid to assist the campaign.) But if Trump reimbursed Cohen, or if there was an understanding or arrangement that he would, while that makes the campaign contribution issue go away, it kind of holes below the waterline Trump's claim that he never had an affair with Daniels, and was not aware of or involved in any arrangement to silence her.

Cohen has tried to straddle a rather awkward divide by saying that he used his own money to "facilitate" the payment to Daniels. That language does imply that someone other than Cohen was ultimately going to bear the cost of the payment, and Cohen was facilitating that person by providing short-term funds. Cohen hasn't (that we know of) said who that person was because, if it was Trump, that's embarrassing to Trump and, if it was anyone else, that's a campaign contribution issue. And that, I'm guessing, is what Mueller is trying to get to the bottom of.

As for Trump firing Mueller, leaving aside the political wisdom of doing that - firing Comey worked out so well for him, didn't it? - it's not at all clear that he can. According to the instrument by which Mueller was appointed, he can only be fired by the Attorney General or someone acting on his behalf, and since Jeff Sessions has recused himself this means that as matters stand only Rod Rosenstein can fire Mueller. Furthermore, he can only be fired for “good cause” (e.g. misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest). So Trump would have to fire Sessions and replace him with a non-recused Attorney General who would be willing to fire Mueller alleging some good cause, and Mueller (and many others) would head off to court to test the alleged goodness of the cause, and so the validity of the firing. It would be a complete sh!tstorm which would really not alleviate the pressure on Trump - more the opposite, really.

Trump is capable of saying and doing really stupid things, so he may well attempt to fire Mueller. But bear in mind that it was Nixon's attempts to get the special counsel investigating Watergate fired that triggered the collapse of his own presidency. Nixon actually succeeded in getting Archibald Cox fired, but it was a pyrrhic victory. I think it would be for Trump also.

[Deleted User]

circadian wrote: »

Also, apparently Trump was paid $150k to do an appearance for some Ukrainian billionaire.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/us/politics/trump-mueller-ukraine-victor-pinchuk.html#click=https://t.co/yydBI0xMq4

Here's the video of the talk he gave in 2015 https://youtu.be/S60nubH47Ac

Christy42

pitifulgod wrote: »

We don't actually even know the full extent of what Mueller reported to the FBI, secondly any uncovered wrongdoing is something he will report. Finally this is a pretty useful way for him to get Cohen to flip on Trump.

I am curious what he is after. Can't imagine we know what it is directly. I mean if we find out Trump lied about knowing about the Stormy contract then it is another on top of a mountain of lies. Hardly something Mueller cares about. Unless Cohen contradicts Trumps version of events a raid is hardly necessary to show Cohen entered his client into a contract without his client's consent so a raid is not needed there either.

Multiple legal teams have ok'd this so I am very curious as to what they have and if they found what they are looking for. We don't seem to have enough information to figure it out as is anyway.

pitifulgod

enfant terrible wrote: »

Think Mueller has veered too far off Russia now and Trump is gonna fire him.

Looks like he's more interested in getting dirt on Trump than finding collusion.

We don't actually even know the full extent of what Mueller reported to the FBI, secondly any uncovered wrongdoing is something he will report. Finally this is a pretty useful way for him to get Cohen to flip on Trump.

[Deleted User]

enfant terrible wrote: »

Think Mueller has veered too far off Russia now and Trump is gonna fire him.

Looks like he's more interested in getting dirt on Trump than finding collusion.

It's like pulling loose threads. He has no idea where it leads but he has to follow them to do a proper investigation. Trump isn't exactly a model businessman so I'm sure Mueller is going to dig up lots and lots of information.

Also, apparently Trump was paid $150k to do an appearance for some Ukrainian billionaire.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/us/politics/trump-mueller-ukraine-victor-pinchuk.html#click=https://t.co/yydBI0xMq4

Quin_Dub

Just watching CNN this morning and a contributor there made an interesting point.

The Attorney Client Privilege is a very important part of the US legal system(all legal systems in truth).

So - Mueller found something that concerned him enough to refer it to the Southern District of NY , that Guy , a recent Trump appointee also saw something so concerning that made him willing to go beyond that privilege. He in turn then went to an independent Judge with the evidence and that Judge also agreed that there was something there so important that he signed off on the warrant.

So Basically 3 separate Legal teams have all looked at whatever the information is and have decided that there is something so significant there that they are willing to potentially break one of the key elements of the legal system( Attorney/Client Privilege).

This could be huge.

enfant terrible

Think Mueller has veered too far off Russia now and Trump is gonna fire him.

Looks like he's more interested in getting dirt on Trump than finding collusion.

20Cent

Also Cohen's law firm represents Cambridge Analytica. Might be some intetesting findings.

derb12

I think that we will see a fbi warrant for a search of trump org financial records very soon.
I don't think trump could have had prior knowledge of today's raid. He was too calm earlier.

aloyisious

Umm, with some much info floating around about Don and his attorney, it's CNN reporting that a White House source said Don knew in advance of the raid and was watching it on TV, and CNN posing a question as to whether he bothered to tip off his attorney in advance. CNN mentioning that the people who signed off on the raid are republicans.

Re the Syrian thing, it seem's to be, from what he said during the meet-the-media event, that Don is reliant on his generals for advice on what can be done. He said something like "isn't that right, generals?" during the meeting when some reporter asked about Syria following on from Don sprouting on about the reported gassing incident. With kelly as his civil-side COS, I hope he and the generals can keep Don away from doing something stupid in respect of Iran, whatever about Syria itself. The generals might have to let Don blow off steam some way without great casualty figures or giving another counntry causus belli.

derb12

I missed the rant but it is not at all surprising. They were just saying that the trump-nominated replacement for preet bharara (who trump fired) signed off on the warrant!

Leroy42

I have never seen a senior politician, or even a senior businessman, be so out of control as Trump just was.

His inability to stay in control is deeply worrying.

To go off on such a rant, not only on Mueller, but the FBI, Sessions, HC etc, at a meeting that was called to discuss Syria and the US response. HE had the top Generals sitting around the table having to watch the CiC totally lose the run of himself.

Wildlife Actor

So Trump said 4 days ago that he didn't know about the stormy payoff ergo Cohen was not his lawyer.

But now there were "privileged communications" taken even though the raid was confined to the stormy payoff. So he was his lawyer.

He's quite the shapeshifter is Cohen.

Water John

Assad has picked a bad day.

Think he just accused Comey of lying.

Leroy42

Trump is now calling the investigation a disgrace, and attack on America and what we stand for. That the Mueller team is conflicted as its all democrats.

He called out Sessions as failing America by recusing himself.

He is now calling out HC are a liar, lying under oath.

Jebus, the man is seriously rattled.

Water John

Something that Mueller found may have been, outside his remit. that would mean handing over that particular, line of inquiry, to the relevant agency.

DT, says they, broke into his friends/attorney's office.
DT, mouthing off at press briefing, see on CNN.

Ludo

Leroy42 wrote: »

But whatever comes out of this, the personal lawyer of the current POTUS has just had his offices and home raided by the FBI.

That is massive.

This in itself would bring down any other leader in a proper normal democracy. Let alone all the other crap. The Teflon Taoiseach had nothing on Trump.

Leroy42

But whatever comes out of this, the personal lawyer of the current POTUS has just had his offices and home raided by the FBI.

That is massive.

Ludo

But it is the Justice Department's Southern District of New York ...i.e federal.

aloyisious

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well, they do say it is the cover up that get you into more trouble than the original indiscretion.

Looking back, I highly doubt news of Stormy would have impacted the vote that much anyway.

Although it doesn't necessarily mean it has anything to do with Trump. Cohen probably had other clients. Mueller could have found out something outside of the Russia Probe and that's why he handed it over to NY DA office.

If the NY DA's office handles the case and decides there is a case for Mr Cohn to answer, does the fact it's the NY DA mean that the charges will NOT be brought federally, thus making them outside the scope of presidential pardon and clemency? EDIT: Ta Ludo.....

Is this another way of skinning the cat, getting the DA to do the legwork, and then bringing in other Federal charges related to something the DA found and had Mr Cohn tried and convicted on?

Leroy42

derb12 wrote: »

I do believe that the €130k being passed through the books of the trump campaign and the trump org will be significant but all the gossipy stuff was a total yawn!

Well, they do say it is the cover up that get you into more trouble than the original indiscretion.

Looking back, I highly doubt news of Stormy would have impacted the vote that much anyway.

Although it doesn't necessarily mean it has anything to do with Trump. Cohen probably had other clients. Mueller could have found out something outside of the Russia Probe and that's why he handed it over to NY DA office.

Edit: The latest sources seem to be suggesting that it does relate to Stormy

derb12

Delighted to hear that this low-life-Roy-Cohn-wannabe-but-not-as-smart attorney is getting his comeuppance. It has been too quiet on the Mueller front for a few weeks and all this salacious gossip about affairs is just a distraction which won't move the political needle. I do believe that the €130k being passed through the books of the trump campaign and the trump org will be significant but all the gossipy stuff was a total yawn!
I just wonder whether Trump's incessant chipping away at the DoJ and Mueller will have sufficiently undermined public confidence in the FBI.
Interesting times again (and definitely staying up late to watch Anderson Cooper tonight!).

pixelburp

I'm guessing this is pretty uncommon right? Presumably not many judges would sign off on a warrant to raid a practising lawyers office unless there was some pretty solid grounding to do so; doubly so given Mueller's supposed meticulous reputation. Not champing at the bit that this is some mythical smoking gun, but it certainly feels like a serious development and decision.

Professor Moriarty

Ludo wrote: »

Just thinking about this more and reading the Twitterati comments. This could actually be a huge deal. This is a massive step and a very unusual thing to do. This is as close as it gets to Trumps inner circle and Trump himself and it is almost definite that a crime was committed. This is certainly more promising than all the Stormy Daniels interview stuff a while back,

Tweets in the past week:

What does the Department of Justice and FBI have to hide? Why aren’t they giving the strongly requested documents (unredacted) to the HOUSE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE? Stalling, but for what reason? Not looking good!

Lawmakers of the House Judiciary Committee are angrily accusing the Department of Justice of missing the Thursday Deadline for turning over UNREDACTED Documents relating to FISA abuse, FBI, Comey, Lynch, McCabe, Clinton Emails and much more. Slow walking - what is going on? BAD!

So sad that the Department of “Justice” and the FBI are slow walking, or even not giving, the unredacted documents requested by Congress. An embarrassment to our country!

Itssoeasy

Inquitus wrote: »

Watching the news on this the DoJ would not have signed off on a raid such as this without very solid info behind it.

A DOJ and FBI which is headed by trump people that he put in place.

Itssoeasy

circadian wrote: »

If he's pardoned then that's an assumption of guilt, no? I mean this is all hypothetical but if there is something awry here and he gets pardoned doesn't that mean he can't plead the 5th to anything in relation to it?

Yes I think if you get pardoned you can't then plead the fifth. Well no it wouldn't be an assumption of guilt but it certainly optics wise would look bad.

Ludo

Just thinking about this more and reading the Twitterati comments. This could actually be a huge deal. This is a massive step and a very unusual thing to do. This is as close as it gets to Trumps inner circle and Trump himself and it is almost definite that a crime was committed. This is certainly more promising than all the Stormy Daniels interview stuff a while back,

Inquitus

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The FBI raids the President's lawyer's office. Who'd have thunk it?

Watching the news on this the DoJ would not have signed off on a raid such as this without very solid info behind it.

[Deleted User]

If he's pardoned then that's an assumption of guilt, no? I mean this is all hypothetical but if there is something awry here and he gets pardoned doesn't that mean he can't plead the 5th to anything in relation to it?

Professor Moriarty

Ludo wrote: »

BREAKING: FBI raids Cohens offices.

Now this should really piss off Trump. Heads might roll over this.

Meuller getting closer?
Trump will need a distraction from this quickly also unfortunately.

The FBI raids the President's lawyer's office. Who'd have thunk it?