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Donald Trump Presidency discussion thread III

Quin_Dub

This thread is for the continuing discussion of Donald Trumps's presidency in the US and any related matters.

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Mumha

Speaking of which ! Yet another new name emerges in this web, GOP Operative Sam Patten. It might be easier to list those who weren't connected with Cambridge Analytica !!! Kilimnik is the Russian GRU operative who was closely tied with Paul Manafort, and connected to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska, a Putin crony.

THE RUSSIA WEB. Accused Russian Intel Asset Teamed Up With GOP Operative

Konstantin Kilimnik found himself a partner in Sam Patten, a lobbyist and political hand who just happens to have worked previously for Cambridge Analytica

LACHLAN MARKAY4.4.18 2:43 PM ET

As 2016 campaign season neared, a Russian national who Special Counsel Robert Mueller now believes was working with the country’s intelligence services founded a consulting firm in Washington D.C.

Begemot Ventures International was incorporated in February 2015, occupying an office on Constitution Avenue. Like other firms in the nation’s capital it offered services catering to the politically inclined. But unlike those other shops, Begemot had executives tied not just to an alleged Russian influence campaign, but also a controversial data firm that would later help elect President Donald Trump.

The space that the firm continues to occupy also houses the offices of Sam Patten, a Republican lobbyist and foreign policy consultant who had previously worked to hone the firm Cambridge Analytica’s microtargeting operation during the 2014 midterm election cycle. They don’t just share a location either. Patten is listed as one of two Begemot executives in Washington D.C. incorporation records.

The other is Konstantin Kilimnik, who is currently front-and-center in the federal investigation into Russian government meddling in the 2016 presidential election. A recent court filing by Mueller alleged that “Person A”—believed to be Kilimnik—“has ties to Russian intelligence service and had such ties in 2016.”

more
https://www.thedailybeast.com/accused-russian-intel-asset-teamed-up-with-gop-operative-3?ref=home

[Deleted User]

The Daily Beast wrote: »

But Mueller’s allegations are so explosive because they allege such ties continued through the presidential election—ties that would, by virtue of Kilimnik’s association with Manafort, represent the Trump campaign’s closest known link to Kremlin operatives.

What. This much later and these "close ties" are the closest link? I haven't being paying any attention but I thought there was a hell of a lot more to this than this since people are still banging on about it like it's over for Trump.

Leroy42

I don't think anybody is banging on like its over for Trump. The status and protections of the office of POTUS makes it incredibly difficult to remove a sitting POTUS, and with the GOP in majority of both houses that likelihood in even lower.

Mueller et al would have to turn up some pretty conclusive evidence to make a difference, even the pretty clear cut Trump Jr meeting wasn't sufficient so you can see what sort of level would be required.

Whilst it is not against the constitution, it is nevertheless seen as not something that should be tackled by the FBI/DOJ, going after a POTUS. But as Mueller continues to unearth more details, and more people start to pay the consequences, Trump may start to be toxic to even his own party. I can certainly see Trump fighting any charge and thus placing the GOP in a very difficult position. I can also see that even if Mueller got the silver bullet, they would hold off looking to see if Trump could be persuaded to leave on his own accord rather than risk a constitutional crisis.

If Mueller can take care of the other leading players, the likes of Manafort, Cambridge Analytica etc, then they will have effectively kneecapped the whole thing anyway and can leave Trump twisting in the wind.

I do not expect to see any charges filed against Trump whilst he is POTUS

mcmoustache

Deleted User wrote: »

What. This much later and these "close ties" are the closest link? I haven't being paying any attention but I thought there was a hell of a lot more to this than this since people are still banging on about it like it's over for Trump.

What? Who had been barking on about it being over for Trump? I haven't got that feeling from anyone here or from any serious media.

Regarding Manafort and Kilimnik, this is just what's known from court filings from Mueller's investigation. It's not the entire body of Mueller's work. The investigation didn't end or anything like that. There's still a way to go - it's only been a year, like. I'm not too sure what you were expecting. That said, having Trump Campaign manager Manafort by the balls for a direct link with Russian intelligence is pretty good going in my opinion.

While you haven't been paying attention, however, a lot has come out through investigative journalism. I could list a heap of other between Trump and his allies and Russia but these are likely to be dismissed or ignored.

Loafing Oaf

What precisely is Mueller's mission anyway? Is he under more pressure than a normal prosecutor to press criminal charges at the end of the process, to sort of justify his existence?

mcmoustache

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

What precisely is Mueller's mission anyway? Is he under more pressure than a normal prosecutor to press criminal charges at the end of the process, to sort of justify his existence?

There's lots of info on the internet about it so I won't add my own spin. Wikipedia has a decent page on it.

Since May 2017, a Special Counsel investigation has been led by the United States Special Counsel, Robert Mueller, a former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The investigation is examining Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections, including exploring any links or coordination between Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and the Russian government, "and any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation". Mueller's investigation took over several FBI investigations including those involving former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn.

As regards pressure, I don't see how he'd be under any particular pressure to find anything. Prosecutors in the US are usually under pressure to get conviction numbers up because their election campaigns depend on it.

Mueller, isn't looking for reelection so I don't see that sort of pressure affecting him. It's also worth pointing out that he is a Republican who was appointed by Trump appointee, Republican Rod Rosenstein. He's not some Hillary deep state conspiracy or anything like that.

demfad

Leroy42 wrote: »

I don't think anybody is banging on like its over for Trump. The status and protections of the office of POTUS makes it incredibly difficult to remove a sitting POTUS, and with the GOP in majority of both houses that likelihood in even lower.

Mueller et al would have to turn up some pretty conclusive evidence to make a difference, even the pretty clear cut Trump Jr meeting wasn't sufficient so you can see what sort of level would be required.

Whilst it is not against the constitution, it is nevertheless seen as not something that should be tackled by the FBI/DOJ, going after a POTUS. But as Mueller continues to unearth more details, and more people start to pay the consequences, Trump may start to be toxic to even his own party. I can certainly see Trump fighting any charge and thus placing the GOP in a very difficult position. I can also see that even if Mueller got the silver bullet, they would hold off looking to see if Trump could be persuaded to leave on his own accord rather than risk a constitutional crisis.

If Mueller can take care of the other leading players, the likes of Manafort, Cambridge Analytica etc, then they will have effectively kneecapped the whole thing anyway and can leave Trump twisting in the wind.

I do not expect to see any charges filed against Trump whilst he is POTUS

The recent clarifications re Manafort indicate that Manafort will also be indicted for colluding with Russia against US Law.
The current list of indictments is relatively tiny. For example, you have the brother of Betsy DeVos who stated under oath that he met the (Putin representative) Russian in the Seychelles accidentally over a beer.
We know this was a lie because Nader is cooporating with Mueller and journalists have corroborating sources saying that the meeting was arranged.
That means that Prince will also be indicted.
Anyone who has lied to the FBI or congress will face this fate.
The really big numbers of indictments will be for lying to the FBI/congress, Obstructing justice or colluding with Russia. These will number in the 100s.

If the democrats take the congress then that congress will impeach him. Depends on the Senate then I believe. The pressure will be massive.

Unforseen events could take over: Republicans cheat in the elections, a big war, false flag attack, civil unrest etc allows Trump to garner authoritarian power.

Loafing Oaf

mcmoustache wrote: »

There's lots of info on the internet about it so I won't add my own spin. Wikipedia has a decent page on it.

As regards pressure, I don't see how he'd be under any particular pressure to find anything. Prosecutors in the US are usually under pressure to get conviction numbers up because their election campaigns depend on it.

Mueller, isn't looking for reelection so I don't see that sort of pressure affecting him. It's also worth pointing out that he is a Republican who was appointed by Trump appointee, Republican Rod Rosenstein. He's not some Hillary deep state conspiracy or anything like that.

Well the pressure would be kind of a matter of perception, by pressing charges he would demonstrate his integrity, prove he isn't part of some establishment whitewash...

aloyisious

NYT reporting that James Schwab, ICE spokesman, has resigned from the agency, saying he could no longer spread falsehoods for the Trump Admin. James Schwab said false statements made by the immigration enforcement agency and Attorney General Jeff Sessions led to his decision. It'll be good to hear what sort of spin is used to explain this at the W/House briefing for the media, who will the media be referred on to for an explanation.

Edit/update. The resignation took place some weeks ago so thew above is old info.

mcmoustache

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well the pressure would be kind of a matter of perception, by pressing charges he would demonstrate his integrity, prove he isn't part of some establishment whitewash...

That's true. There is pressure in the sense that he needs to avoid Trump finding a way to remove him. There's a balancing act there - he needs to show that there something to the investigation while also not getting too close too soon to Trump himself.

He's managed that so far by indicting Russians and Manafort and also got guilty pleas from Flynn. Papadopolous, Gates, Van der Zwaan and Pinedo.

mcmoustache

aloyisious wrote: »

NYT reporting that James Schwab, ICE spokesman, has resigned from the agency, saying he could no longer spread falsehoods for the Trump Admin. James Schwab said false statements made by the immigration enforcement agency and Attorney General Jeff Sessions led to his decision. It'll be good to hear what sort of spin is used to explain this at the W/House briefing for the media, who will the media be referred on to for an explanation.

Did this not happen before?

[Deleted User]

mcmoustache wrote: »

What? Who had been barking on about it being over for Trump? I haven't got that feeling from anyone here or from any serious media.

Just colleagues and friends etc. who are fully sure an indictment is around the corner because they see Russia in the news every day.

(I'm not making a debate point here.)

aloyisious

mcmoustache wrote: »

Did this not happen before?

You're right. I went looking for more info and it seems he resigned on March 13th. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-spokesman-james-schwab-resigns-slams-trump-administration-immigration-raids/

I saw it on the F/B list of stories and assumed it was breaking news, my fault for not double-checking with other news sources.

Dated Washington Post link... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/03/13/ice-spokesman-resigns-over-false-statements-by-top-officials-about-calif-immigrant-arrests/

A spokesman for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has resigned over what he described as “false” and “misleading” statements made by Attorney General Jeff Sessions and ICE acting director Thomas D. Homan.
James Schwab worked out of the agency’s San Francisco office until he abruptly quit last week. He said he had been told to “deflect” questions about the Oakland, Calif., mayor’s interference with an ICE raid last month and to refer reporters to statements from Sessions and Homan that suggested that hundreds of “criminals” (“criminal aliens,” Homan called them) escaped capture in Northern California because the mayor tipped them off.
“I quit because I didn’t want to perpetuate misleading facts,” Schwab told the San Francisco Chronicle. “I asked them to change the information. I told them that the information was wrong, they asked me to deflect, and I didn’t agree with that. Then I took some time, and I quit.”

Itssoeasy

I see trump was talking abut immigration and once again shows a clear lack of understanding about the immigration system of the country he leads.

Also a great point made by David axelrod is that nowadays people don't consume news in it's various forms inform themselves but to affirm themselves and that their positions are right.

Mumha

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I see trump was talking abut immigration and once again shows a clear lack of understanding about the immigration system of the country he leads.

Also a great point made by David axelrod is that nowadays people don't consume news in it's various forms inform themselves but to affirm themselves and that their positions are right.

Mod: No more nonsense please.

Mumha

When the hammer drops, the Republicans in Congress are going to own all this. If they were doing their duty, this little rat would be in jail now.

"Lewandowski to Democrats: I'm not answering your 'f---ing' questions" - CNN

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/05/politics/corey-lewandowski-russia-investigation/index.html

(CNN)Corey Lewandowski had a blunt message for Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee: He wasn't going to answer their "****ing" questions.

Lewandowski, President Donald Trump's former campaign manager, was the final witness in the yearlong House investigation that descended into vitriol and back-biting -- ultimately resulting in two separate partisan reports that will leave the American public no closer to learning how the Russians interfered in the 2016 elections.
But Lewandowski, who agreed to come back to the committee a second time in March after initially refusing to answer questions about topics occurring once he left the campaign in June 2016, was in no mood to give Democrats anything they wanted, saying he would only answer "relevant" questions.
And, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the situation, the Trump confidante repeatedly swore at Democratic lawmakers to make the point he wasn't going to talk further.

I'm not answering your "****ing" question, Lewandowski shouted at one point.

Mumha

Another Russia connected person files for divorce. Following Don jr filing for an amicable divorce with his wife, now Rudi Guiliani does the same. Coincidence or an attempt to secure property against seizure ?

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/981740985536385024

Patser

Trump has finally made a statement about the Stormy Daniels stuff, basically saying he's no idea about the $130,000 payment.

Which had Daniels' Lawyer immediately jumping in, saying great, if he knows nothing about it, then obviously can't know about non-disclosure, therefore we're free to talk about it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43663757

mcmoustache

aloyisious wrote: »

You're right. I went looking for more info and it seems he resigned on March 13th. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-spokesman-james-schwab-resigns-slams-trump-administration-immigration-raids/

No problem at all. It just demonstrates that some people care about getting the facts while others want to distort them.

mcmoustache

Deleted User wrote: »

Just colleagues and friends etc. who are fully sure an indictment is around the corner because they see Russia in the news every day.

(I'm not making a debate point here.)

That's fair enough.

He's not likely to get impeached. But if he pisses off enough billionaires in the US, he'll be removed.

spacecoyote

https://www.themarshallproject.org/2018/03/30/the-myth-of-the-criminal-immigrant?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sprout&utm_source=twitter

Interesting article around the link between immigration & crime in the US which shows that, generally speaking, an increase in immigration tends to lead toa reduction in violent crime rates.

Its not completely black & white but seems to be quite a comprehensive study & flies in the face of much of the agenda that Trump & his cronies have been pushing.

Leroy42

Patser wrote: »

Trump has finally made a statement about the Stormy Daniels stuff, basically saying he's no idea about the $130,000 payment.

Which had Daniels' Lawyer immediately jumping in, saying great, if he knows nothing about it, then obviously can't know about non-disclosure, therefore we're free to talk about it.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43663757

He had two choices. Either go with the I knew nothing about it, and thus continue to deny the affair and the cover up or to accept that he was party to it all.

He has chosen though to deny he had any knowledge of the deal. He has pretty much just thrown Cohen under the bus, as he will be called up on ethics charges I would think, by entering his client into a deal without his knowledge.

It is funny as Cohen lawleys has been at pains to say that Cohen did it out of loyalty and love from Trump and his family. Yet Trump has now just cast Cohen averboard.

On the other hand, people already believe he had the affair, Stormy has already given the interview so what ahrm now the NDA been thrown away? The threat, that it could hurt his election, was effectively sidelined.

Stormy is being classed as some genius in how she is handling all this, but she gave away her real power back in October 16. She should have gone to Cohen and if not got what she wanted (and IMO 130k is a pittance for the leverage she had) she should have gone straight to the Dems.

Blowfish

Leroy42 wrote: »

He has chosen though to deny he had any knowledge of the deal. He has pretty much just thrown Cohen under the bus, as he will be called up on ethics charges I would think, by entering his client into a deal without his knowledge.

Not only that, but apparently, because Cohen said it was his money and that he did it to help the campaign, it counts as a campaign contribution. Since the Trump Campaign didn't declare it as a contribution though, it's going to cause them and Trump legal issues anyway.

jem

Any chance that Muller is taking his time in the hope that the dems have a great midterm and therefore impeach trump on his evidence, worrying that no matter what he has that the Republicans wont impeach one of their own.
I know that with Nixon it was finally the Republicans that gave the final push and they were in the majority but they were different times

2 Scoops

Mumha wrote: »

Another Russia connected person files for divorce. Following Don jr filing for an amicable divorce with his wife, now Rudi Guiliani does the same. Coincidence or an attempt to secure property against seizure ?

Giuliani is Russia connected and his divorce with Don JR is part of some conspiracy, are you actually serious?

NyOmnishambles

2 Scoops wrote: »

Giuliani is Russia connected and his divorce with Don JR is part of some conspiracy, are you actually serious?

Russia connections aside

The suggestion that the divorce's are tactical is hardly outlandish, happened here recently enough with all the banking scandals and lads trying to hive assets off into the wive's or more importantly ex-wives names in order to hide them from the state

2 Scoops

Leroy42 wrote: »

He had two choices.

The other one based in reality is that Trump doesn't care and nothing worthwhile will happen. This weird obsessed fan fiction needs a limit.

2 Scoops

NyOmnishambles wrote: »

Russia connections aside

The suggestion that the divorce's are tactical is hardly outlandish, happened here recently enough with all the banking scandals and lads trying to hive assets off into the wive's or more importantly ex-wives names in order to hide them from the state

My view is that people are magnifying every non issue into conspiracy theories. If Rudy Giuliani is some Russian player I'll eat my hat five times over.

NyOmnishambles

2 Scoops wrote: »

My view is that people are magnifying every non issue into conspiracy theories. If Rudy Giuliani is some Russian player I'll eat my hat five times over.

I don't know enough about Giuilani to comment one way or another, you may well be right

But in Trump Jr's case it wouldn't be at all surprising if the divorce was a way to try and protect assets, it is the way these type of people operate and we have more than enough local evidence from people worth a fraction of their wealth to see that it can and does happen, even if in general the state will get their money one way or another

everlast75

2 Scoops wrote: »

The other one based in reality is that Trump doesn't care and nothing worthwhile will happen. This weird obsessed fan fiction needs a limit.

That's not a choice in terms of what he can do? That's your prediction of what will happen.

He can of course "not care", but he should care as he may be called to give evidence and (knowing him) lie under oath.

He should also care because he has now thrown Cohen under the bus and Cohen may face charges. Cohen strikes me as that weird type that is fanatical about his loyalty to Trump and once that type sees how easily they are discarded by their hero, they may say "screw it - after all I've done for this guy" and be a bit more forthcoming with their info to the police.