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Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Autochange

Bear markets
Fud
Regulation
Wall Street manipulation
The supposed tether ticking time bomb

What are your thoughts? Have you cashed out? Have you been buying the dips?

MOD NOTE:
Its good to see healthy debate and discussion taking place and I am sure every supporter of cryptocurrency and blockchain can agree that the contrarian viewpoint is worthwhile reading, if only to act as an anchor and help prevent investors from getting carried away in an echo chamber of "everything is wonderful, just keep going"

However, there have been a few reported posts recently which I did not action as I wanted to see the thread level out itself rather than start forcing viewpoints and I have been in two minds about that decision.

I'm not going to single any posters out but I'm going to ask that all posters read the forum charter and I want to point out that it was established years ago in the Television forum, that dropping in on a forum to tell the followers of that forums topic (in that case a particular tv show) that it was all crap and only idiots watched it etc etc was the exact definition of being a dick and attempting to troll. I know this because I was the mod of the forum at the time. Now look at the forum charter again.

There is pretty much one rule on this forum : if you cannot discuss in a civil manner, and I mean discuss, not soapbox or attack, then you have absolutely no business posting here and I have no qualms about removing your ability to do so.

This forum is for people that have in interest in cryptocurrencies, blockchain and their application to financial investments. that can be positive or negative but if you really feel the need to start pulling out memes / hiding insults in imaginary hashtags / attacking personalities or just generally being a dick there are other forums you can post in where I will let the local mods determine if it is within the scope of allowable behaviour. Here, it is not.

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Bob24

smacl wrote: »

The challenges in relation to the right to be forgotten, and data protection with respect to the person, go far beyond blockchain though, as can be seen with recent and ongoing controversy surrounding facebook and other social networks. In the EU their is a clear demand for much greater transparency and personal protection in this regard. When you think about it, this need for transparency and controlled mutability is something that is ideally suited to blockchain technology and favours it hugely over closed, propitiatory, and centralised systems. This short term controversy will most likely be a huge advantage for blockchain in the medium to long term. At a technical level, it is all very achievable.

The fact that blockchains are distributed and with a difficulty for data controllers to ensure data is deleted everywhere as well as for data processors to have the capacity of addressing possible issues with the data they hold makes completely different from a Facebook.

If Facebook's case there is clear accountability and empowerment to control the data at every level of the chain. Both Facebook and the data processors it entrusted data with have misbehaved but it is clear they are the responsible parties who will be liable for that misbehaviour, and it is clear that if they had wanted to they would have had the technical means of processing that data differently. That clarity currently doesn't exist with blockchain as per my previous post.

smacl

Bob24 wrote: »

The fact that blockchains are distributed and with a difficulty for data controllers to ensure data is deleted everywhere as well as for data processors to have the capacity of addressing possible issues with the data they hold makes completely different from a Facebook.

If Facebook's case there is clear accountability and empowerment to control the data at every level of the chain. Both Facebook and the data processors it entrusted data with have misbehaved but it is clear they are the responsible parties who will be liable for that misbehaviour, and it is clear that if they had wanted to they would have had the technical means of processing that data differently. That clarity currently doesn't exist with blockchain as per my previous post.

I suspect this again will be a strength rather than weakness for blockchain going forward, where data controllers on large closed systems have been shown to be irresponsible and ineffective on numerous occasions in the past and remain so today. Once you have transparency, traceability and very limited mutability on a large, open, distributed system such as blockchain you essentially also have clear liability. The assertion that large centrally controlled IT systems owned by big corporations are somehow better able or likely to look after the best interests of the public user than decentralised commonly owned systems has yet to be proven and to my mind seems dubious. It is worth remembering that these new pieces of EU consumer protection legislation are being put into place as a direct reaction to irresponsible and potentially abusive behaviour by the likes of FaceBook and not by the likes of BitCoin. That blockchain tech may well fall foul of such legislation in the short term is incidental and correctable, the same can be said of any connected application that has a possibility of storing personal information. Facebook shares have also taken a hammering in recent months and rightly so.

Bob24

smacl wrote: »

Once you have transparency, traceability and very limited mutability on a large, open, distributed system such as blockchain you essentially also have clear liability.

You have been saying that a lot but I don't see how this is true in the context of something like personal data and GDRP or of holding illegal information.

For example if my name and address are held in a blockchain and I want them removed. What is the person/entity which can be held accountable and has the technical means for completely wiping my information off that blockchain including from all the nodes it has been shared with and the backups of the old versions of the blockchain they might have?

smacl

Bob24 wrote: »

For example if my name is held in a blockchain and I want it removed. What is the person/entity which can be held accountable and has the technical means for completely wiping my information off that blockchain including from all the nodes it has been shared with and the backups of the old versions of the blockchain they might have?

Difficult to know the exact editing mechanism as we're speculating about a piece of functionality that has yet to be implemented. Off the top of my head, I'd guess at a consensus based change request to edit the content that needed changing but there are many ways of achieving this goal. As for off-line backups of sensitive data, yes they will exist, just as they do for any and all on-line information. The internet is full of caches many which get backup up and archived. Once anything is publicly visible at any point in time it can be copies and archived and this happens as a matter of course.

Bob24

smacl wrote: »

Difficult to know the exact editing mechanism as we're speculating about a piece of functionality that has yet to be implemented. Off the top of my head, I'd guess at a consensus based change request to edit the content that needed changing but there are many ways of achieving this goal. As for off-line backups of sensitive data, yes they will exist, just as they do for any and all on-line information. The internet is full of caches many which get backup up and archived. Once anything is publicly visible at any point in time it can be copies and archived and this happens as a matter of course.

Basing it on the good will of the node to erase the data (in what you describe there is nothing to force them to do so or to audit they have actually done it) would not be satisfying as far as GDRP is concerned. It is clear a data controller has to have full control over the data it has shared with data processors and be able to guarantee it has been erased all across (and for reference while it sounds like a pain in practice, I have asked about backups in GDRP trainings and the answer was that yes they are covered by the regulation and data needs to be removed from them - my view/understanding is that there will be an understanding that it is not always realistically possible but for such cases there will need hard guarantees that the data is encrypted in the backup and will never be decrypted unless in emergency situations with a process in place to delete it immediately after decryption).

smacl

Bob24 wrote: »

Basing it on the good will of the node to erase the data (in what you describe there is nothing to force them to do so or to audit they have actually done it) would not be satisfying as far as GDRP is concerned. It is clear a data controller has to have full control over the data it has shared with data processors and be able to guarantee it has been erased all across (and while it sounds like a pain in practice, I have asked about backups in GDRP trainings and the answer was that yes they are covered by the regulation and data needs to be removed from them).

What you'll see with the vast majority of all personalised information in reaction to GDPR is Pseudonymization so this will tend to be an issue more for older legacy systems than emerging systems. Even then, with GDPR much as with the data protection act that it replaces, it requires someone make a complaint to start with before there is an issue at which point a case might get taken if the issue raised isn't acted on in a timely manner. I very much doubt the mechanism by which the action takes place will be scrutinised until such time as it is shown to be unreliable.

For all that, blockchain technology will be extremely low down the list of IT systems facing problems in meeting GDPR requirements when compared to phone apps, messaging apps, mail servers, cloud based systems, internet servers, ftp servers, etc... all of which contain massive amounts of data where the content is known to the host. For example, I notice Under Armour managed to lose account details for some 150 million users this week (including mine!). Their response, an email saying sorry and a suggestion to change you password on other sites. I really don't believe this is likely to be a significant issue for blockchain tech in the grand scheme of things. Social media on the other hand could be heading towards rougher waters.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

My prediction is $6000 by April 1st

I wasn't too far off. Another big dip today. Could even drop South of 6k by the end of today.

[Deleted User]

Are we still going to the moon lads?

HerrKuehn

Huge buying opportunities in there today. These are the days Lambos are made.

JohnnyFlash

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

I wasn't too far off. Another big dip today. Could even drop South of 6k by the end of today.

What sort of technical analysis did you do to come up with that price prediction? Very accurate.

Pintman Paddy Losty

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What sort of technical analysis did you do to come up with that price prediction? Very accurate.

Can't be giving away me secrets now Johnny. Down to $6,500 now.

Thinking of offering my services to the shrewd day traders around here.

Edit: lower again now. Down towards $6,400

JohnnyFlash

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Can't be giving away me secrets now Johnny. Down to $6,500 now.

Thinking of offering my services to the shrewd day traders around here.

Flee a sinking ship and take it as a lesson learned the hard way?

banie01

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

What sort of technical analysis did you do to come up with that price prediction? Very accurate.

In what world is 11% off very accurate?
A dip in price on a holiday weekend is hardly an inspired prediction.

Pintman Paddy Losty

banie01 wrote: »

In what world is 11% off very accurate?
A dip in price on a holiday weekend is hardly an inspired prediction.

Bitcoin was at about $9000 when I made my prediction for April 01st. It's continuing to trend downwards in this sell-off.

Very likely it will actually hit my figure.

Please stay tuned to my posts. I will be announcing my prediction for May 01st soon.

lifeandtimes

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Bitcoin was at about $9000 when I made my prediction for April 01st. It's continuing to trend downwards in this sell-off.

Very likely it will actually hit my figure.

Please stay tuned to my posts. I will be announcing my prediction for May 01st soon.

So in a bear market you guessed it would be loser than a certain amount after a certain number of days.

No rocket science here so don't pretend to know

Seing a market slowly fall and making a guess that's 11% off isnt mpressive ,just saying

JohnnyFlash

lifeandtimes wrote: »

So in a bear market you guessed it would be loser than a certain amount after a certain number of days.

No rocket science here so don't pretend to know

Seing a market slowly fall and making a guess that's 11% off isnt mpressive ,just saying

Better prediction and advice than HODL and Moon.

Pintman Paddy Losty

lifeandtimes wrote: »

So in a bear market you guessed it would be loser than a certain amount after a certain number of days.

No rocket science here so don't pretend to know

Seing a market slowly fall and making a guess that's 11% off isnt mpressive ,just saying

I know maths generally isn't the strong point for crypobroz.

The price was $9k when I made the prediction. Bitcoin has dropped to $6,474 today (and the trend is very much downwards). That means so far I have only been $474 off.

That's 5.25% margin of error. That's a remarkably accurate prediction for a product as volatile as Bitcoin.

As I said, I will be making a prediction for May 01st in the coming days. Pay attention if you are someone who trades in bitcoin.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Anyway, this current bear run will look like absolutely nothing once Tether collapses. That will be an absolute bloodbath for bitcoin, quite possibly a death blow.

annie.t

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Anyway, this current bear run will look like absolutely nothing once Tether collapses. That will be an absolute bloodbath for bitcoin, quite possibly a death blow.

Anything to make you feel better bro

Pintman Paddy Losty

annie.t wrote: »

Anything to make you feel better bro

I'm afraid the thoughts of naive people losing their money doesn't make me feel better.

I urge anyone holding Bitcoin to sell before the tether scandal wipes their entire value.

Just look at the market cap of tether. Anyone who believes they have each of those tokens they created backed by an actual dollar needs their head examined.

The One Doctor

Participated in a pump and dump today, interesting experience. Made 10.5% but a tense few minutes. Price went from 0.00000256 to 0.00000383 in two minutes, tough getting orders in and out.

Very low volume coin, 0.04BTC. MOTO on Cryptopia. Pump is long gone so don't buy it!

Edit - Yes, I know it's immoral, but I was curious. It's not a viable way of making money as the max order was 0.017BTC (mine) and I accidentally picked my sell order to be at 0.00000380 (was a wild guess). Not like you could dump in 1BTC and get 0.105 back out.

Chancer3001

I'm 99% sure tether is a scam.

But when it blows the Bitcoin price to death...u wonder if all the other coins will die too

JohnnyFlash

Chancer3001 wrote: »

I'm 99% sure tether is a scam.

But when it blows the Bitcoin price to death...u wonder if all the other coins will die too

The entire thing looks very troubling to this keen observer. There's over 2 billion worth of Tether being used to pump the price every day. Like why would some regular punter put his real money into crypto, when the Tether lads just created billions of 'dollars' out of thin air, and are using it to move the market in just the way they want? Using tactics that cannot be used in any proper trading market - wash trading, painting the tape, going long and then manipulating the market on bitfinex to clear out the (increasingly rare) short positions?

Meanwhile the miners are having to cash out into real money all the time to pay the leccie bill etc. Where's the liquidity? The money that came in through Coinbase, Kraken and the other FIAT gateways must be well washed through the system by now. I know tether and bitfinex are seen as the dodgy actors in all this, but I think Binance is the other huge elephant in the room. As dodgy as a nine bob note.

Roberto_gas

6000 from 9000(assuming it was predicted then ) is a drop of 33% and its not a guess...lets give credit where its due...

smacl

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

The entire thing looks very troubling to this keen observer. There's over 2 billion worth of Tether being used to pump the price every day. Like why would some regular punter put his real money into crypto, when the Tether lads just created billions of 'dollars' out of thin air, and are using it to move the market in just the way they want? Using tactics that cannot be used in any proper trading market - wash trading, painting the tape, going long and then manipulating the market on bitfinex to clear out the (increasingly rare) short positions?

It is a fair point, but I wonder whether part of the current decline isn't already due to huge loss of trust in tether and people simply not holding it any more. If you think about it, tether was used on a trust basis as safe haven to hold crypto in a wildly fluctuating market. Once that trust is gone, which I believe has been the case for some time for most people, tether only gets held in far smaller amounts for short term transactions. Further to this, if an exchange starts handling FIAT pairs, as Kraken currently does and binance is mooted to do in the near future, tether becomes entirely obsolete. I agree that tether and Bitfinex are not long for this world, but doubt the larger exposure is anything like what it once was. The big money has most likely already left the scene, and the downturn we're seeing could well be the result of that.

Pure speculation, but if binance starts providing FIAT pairs (which seems likely), tether will be about as significant as a fart in a hurricane.

smacl

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Anyway, this current bear run will look like absolutely nothing once Tether collapses. That will be an absolute bloodbath for bitcoin, quite possibly a death blow.

Bloodbath? Careful there Paddy, you're treading dangerously close to Brendan the butcher's turf there

makeorbrake

smacl wrote: »

I agree that tether and Bitfinex are not long for this world, but doubt the larger exposure is anything like what it once was.

How are they not long for this world? i.e. what mechanism is there to stop them from doing what they're suspected of doing?

I'm also struggling to understand how it's no longer relevant. If they are dreaming up tether - issuing them without any backing and then using that 'currency' to buy bitcoin, surely that's always going to have an effect on liquidity...perceived liquidity as opposed to actual liquidity in the market??

Dohnjoe

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Anyway, this current bear run will look like absolutely nothing once Tether collapses. That will be an absolute bloodbath for bitcoin, quite possibly a death blow.

If I had one Dogecoin for every "Bitcoin "trader"/psychic who comes in here claiming to know future events and prices (yet mysteriously doesn't put their money where their mouth is) then as if by magic disappears when their predictions fail to materialise"..

smacl

makeorbrake wrote: »

How are they not long for this world? i.e. what mechanism is there to stop them from doing what they're suspected of doing?

I'm also struggling to understand how it's no longer relevant. If they are dreaming up tether - issuing them without any backing and then using that 'currency' to buy bitcoin, surely that's always going to have an effect on liquidity...perceived liquidity as opposed to actual liquidity in the market??

They can dream up as many tether as they like, but they have no value other than devaluing existing tether unless people buy them. If people stop holding tether and exchanges start trading FIAT pairs, tether effectively disappears. Put another way, who in their right mind would hold large volumes of tether at this point in time? What exactly is the value of tether without absolute trust that it is fully and securely underwritten?

As i say, speculation, but if the whales lost trust in tether, what would they do and how would that effect the market? My guess is get rid of tether through other coins and quietly dump those coins back to FIAT, which would depress the market. This seems to match what is happening to the market.

It could well be when and if tether goes pop, it will trigger growth rather than decline, as the elephant in the room is shown the door.

makeorbrake

smacl wrote: »

As i say, speculation, but if the whales lost trust in tether, what would they do and how would that effect the market?

Like you say, who in their right mind can justify holding tether? Can't figure it out....yet price has not devalued.

As regards if and when tether can be put behind crypto once and for all, it can only be a positive for the space.