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Mayo constituency GE2020

Loafing Oaf

Which, according to Paddy Power, is 2/9 to take place this year.:)

Anyone got any inside info?

Is Michael Ring planning to run again? If so, he's presumably a dead cert as always. As are Calleary and Chambers I'd say. After that it's a tougher call but I reckon Michelle Mulherin has a decent shot at a comeback, given the conservatism of the electorate...

Apologies to the mods if it's 'too soon' to be starting this conversation.

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Coillte_Bhoy

Pro lifers reporting that Calleary will campaign for a no vote. Whats are the other candidates stated positions. Chambers is def Yes, and i assume Ring will support the Govt, what about Mulherirn and Dillon?

MissTheDome

Ring lost a lot of votes to Cowley, who left it very late to run last time out. If he goes again, assuming the Public Health Service is in the mess it is now; he could sweep up a lot of FG votes.

nuac

PARlance wrote: »

Forgot to add that as well as the Castlebar vote, Dillon will be very strong in Westport with his Allergan connections. I think he'll pip Mulherin, he has Castlebar, Westport / Allergan / Ring & the GAA going for him.

Ring is an experienced campaigner. I doubt if there will be much leakage of FG votes from the Westport area from Ring to Dillon

nuac

O'Brien is a long time in local community work and in local politics. Polls well in LG elections. .

Has Dillon done any community work on ground over the years? Can't recall that he did

seligehgit

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well, I think we can safely say Dillon won't be launching a public appeal for All-Ireland tickets anyway...

Oh but Mulherin apparently topped the poll for nominations, pipping Ring, so she has a decent chunk of the party faithful onside at least.

That was cringeworthy but I was more so referencing her fornication comments and African phone calls.

Loafing Oaf

seligehgit wrote: »

Can't see Michelle Mulherin winning a seat.I suppose my opinion is coloured by her past controversies/foot in mouth disease.

Well, I think we can safely say Dillon won't be launching a public appeal for All-Ireland tickets anyway...

Oh but Mulherin apparently topped the poll for nominations, pipping Ring, so she has a decent chunk of the party faithful onside at least.

seligehgit

Ring,Dillon,Calleary and Chambers for me.

We're very protective of our seats in the Castlebar hinterland.

Can't see Michelle Mulherin winning a seat.I suppose my opinion is coloured by her past controversies/foot in mouth disease.

PARlance

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well I'm standing by my prediction that FG will win at most 2 seats and those 2 will be Ring and Mulherin if they both run. But that's based largely on Mulherin being the 'girl from the north county,' and I'm not sure how far that's an iron law of politics.

Forgot to add that as well as the Castlebar vote, Dillon will be very strong in Westport with his Allergan connections. I think he'll pip Mulherin, he has Castlebar, Westport / Allergan / Ring & the GAA going for him.

PARlance

naughto wrote: »

Is Dillion not there to block chambers as there from the same area.
Or to take some of here votes as she transfers well

He's there primarily as Enda's replacement in the Castlebar area. They wouldn't have let a situation occur were there was no Castlebar candidate imo.

I'm not sure they would be looking at it as a "blocker" to Chambers. Party lines run fairly strong in Mayo. He might compete for the younger vote with Chambers but young people don't tend to win elections for anyone. I'd say Chambers and Dillon will get support from a good few though.

PARlance

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah I guess Mulherin was largely Kenny's creature, and with him out of the picture there won't be as many people in FG rooting for her...

Even with a badly managed campaign, I doubt FG would lose a seat, unless a really strong non-FG/FF candidate emerged. And if that didn't happen in the years of crisis/austerity, it's hard to see it happening now.

Ya that's true, I should have said it would take a disaster of the highest order for them to just get 1.
I just feel that Dillon and Mulherin won't be steamrolling votes in, there's a slight danger that it could go pearshaped... as you say, it would take a really strong non FG/FF candidate there to make it even a slight possibility imo.

Loafing Oaf

PARlance wrote: »

It'll be interesting.
Dillon has a lot of backers. I would say he will pip her for the 2nd seat. I certainly can't see them getting 3 anyway.
With a badly managed campaign, both Dillon & Mulherin may even lose out... but it tends to be managed well.

Yeah I guess Mulherin was largely Kenny's creature, and with him out of the picture there won't be as many people in FG rooting for her...

Even with a badly managed campaign, I doubt FG would lose a seat, unless a really strong non-FG/FF candidate emerged. And if that didn't happen in the years of crisis/austerity, it's hard to see it happening now.

naughto

Is Dillion not there to block chambers as there from the same area.
Or to take some of here votes as she transfers well

PARlance

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well I'm standing by my prediction that FG will win at most 2 seats and those 2 will be Ring and Mulherin if they both run. But that's based largely on Mulherin being the 'girl from the north county,' and I'm not sure how far that's an iron law of politics.

It'll be interesting.
Dillon has a lot of backers. I would say he will pip her for the 2nd seat. I certainly can't see them getting 3 anyway.
With a badly managed campaign, both Dillon & Mulherin may even lose out... but it tends to be managed well.

Loafing Oaf

PARlance wrote: »

If I was to wear a shirt, it would be blue. And I'm a big GAA fan... but I think Dillon needs an awful lot of work to be a presence, that's being nice.

Well I'm standing by my prediction that FG will win at most 2 seats and those 2 will be Ring and Mulherin if they both run. But that's based largely on Mulherin being the 'girl from the north county,' and I'm not sure how far that's an iron law of politics.

PARlance

If I was to wear a shirt, it would be blue. And I'm a big GAA fan... but I think Dillon needs an awful lot of work to be a presence, that's being nice.

Dudda

seligehgit wrote: »

So Alan Dillon has been selected for the Fine Gael ticket in the Mayo constituency with Patsy O Brien losing out.

Patsy was a good bit behind too. Wasn't a close race.

seligehgit

So Alan Dillon has been selected for the Fine Gael ticket in the Mayo constituency with Patsy O Brien losing out.

nuac

O'Brien polls strongly in Council elections. Said to support Ring. May be staking out his own claim in the event of Ring's retirement - some time.

Loafing Oaf

ifeelstupid wrote: »

I see on MWR that Patsy O'Brien is oping to throw his hat into the ring for FG

It's the cover story on the Western. He seems to be saying the Southeast of the county needs/deserves a TD. What next, some guy from Achill popping up saying they have to have a TD?

ifeelstupid

I see on MWR that Patsy O'Brien is oping to throw his hat into the ring for FG

Green&Red

naughto wrote: »

Not a chance of that happening if the likes of Kilcoyne can’t get a dail seat
What chance does Alan

Johnno got elected, anything is possible. Michelle Mulherin wont be too happy though

Coillte_Bhoy

nuac wrote: »

Farrington got a reasonable vote on his first outing in 2016.

AFAIK he is related to the Higgins Clan in Kiltimagh who have been active in GAA and community development for many years. Strong FG connections.

RENUA would be stronger now if Lucinda Creighton, from neighbouring Claremorris, was still in politics. The Indo ran a vicious campaign against her. As a result she was replaced by that fragrant Kate wan. IMHO a loss to politics

He's a former FF man himself.

Westernyelp

nuac wrote: »

Farrington got a reasonable vote on his first outing in 2016.

AFAIK he is related to the Higgins Clan in Kiltimagh who have been active in GAA and community development for many years. Strong FG connections.

RENUA would be stronger now if Lucinda Creighton, from neighbouring Claremorris, was still in politics. The Indo ran a vicious campaign against her. As a result she was replaced by that fragrant Kate wan. IMHO a loss to politics

I for one am delighted to see the back of Ms. Creighton and her politics

nuac

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Michael Farrington the Reannua finance spokesman is fairly active on social media these days, wonder is he planning to run again? He's come out heavily pro life as well

Farrington got a reasonable vote on his first outing in 2016.

AFAIK he is related to the Higgins Clan in Kiltimagh who have been active in GAA and community development for many years. Strong FG connections.

RENUA would be stronger now if Lucinda Creighton, from neighbouring Claremorris, was still in politics. The Indo ran a vicious campaign against her. As a result she was replaced by that fragrant Kate wan. IMHO a loss to politics

Coillte_Bhoy

Michael Farrington the Reannua finance spokesman is fairly active on social media these days, wonder is he planning to run again? He's come out heavily pro life as well

Loafing Oaf

naughto wrote: »

Not a chance of that happening if the likes of Kilcoyne can’t get a dail seat
What chance does Alan

If he's on the FG ticket surely he has a chance?

Dudda

naughto wrote: »

Not a chance of that happening if the likes of Kilcoyne can’t get a dail seat
What chance does Alan

I’d have agreed with you before Trump became president. Now I just don’t know what’s possible.

naughto

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Well it looks like FG have sourced a Castlebar-based candidate out of leftfield. Left-half forward to be precise. http://www.mayonews.ie/news/31209-fine-gael-and-footballer-alan-dillon-in-talks-about-surprise-general-election-bid-2

Maybe they're thinking there's a gap for a 'strong GAA man' on the ticket in the absence of Kenny and O'Mahony.

Not a chance of that happening if the likes of Kilcoyne can’t get a dail seat
What chance does Alan

Loafing Oaf

Well it looks like FG have sourced a Castlebar-based candidate out of leftfield. Left-half forward to be precise. http://www.mayonews.ie/news/31209-fine-gael-and-footballer-alan-dillon-in-talks-about-surprise-general-election-bid-2

Maybe they're thinking there's a gap for a 'strong GAA man' on the ticket in the absence of Kenny and O'Mahony.

Loafing Oaf

seligehgit wrote: »

That appears the most likely outcome,I can't see Michelle Mulherin securing a seat,too gaffe prone.

Hard to see where Fine Gael will find a candidate in Castlebar?

That Indo article I quoted suggested that Senator Paddy Burke would be a candidate. Be unusual for a guy in his sixties to run for the Dail for the first time but needs must I suppose. FG's calculation may be that their chances of holding two seats are enhanced by running three candidates even if they have no realistic chance of taking a third...