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Brexit discussion thread III

ancapailldorcha

This thread is for discussing the departure of the UK from the EU. I will move some posts over shortly.

New posters, please read the forum charter before posting.

Regards,

The Politics Mods.

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Leroy42

There is a massive gap between how the EU regard the December agreement and how the UK see it. The EU clearly sees it as the basis for the final agreement, any deviation from it must be agreed.

The UK see it as nothing more than an advisory wish list.

So, the EU is busy working on implementing the December agreement, or better solutions should the UK provide them and both agree.

The UK seems to be of the view that they are starting from scratch and that everything and anything is open, like December never happened.

Not sure how you even start to square that circle.

Infini

I honestly think there is no squaring it. Its down to 3 options

1) 2nd Referendum
2) Agree to all the EUs conditions
3) Hard Brexit with severe economic and diplomatic damage.

I honestly wish the UK would just drop the BS and go with option 1 if they dont want option 3 to happen because they will be forced to take 2 regardless if they dont want to ruin their country.

Think were all tired at this stage of the endless stonewalling.

ancapailldorcha

Infini wrote: »

I honestly think there is no squaring it. Its down to 3 options

1) 2nd Referendum

As much as I'd love to see Parliament exert it's sovereignty, and in British society it is Parliament which is sovereign as opposed to the people, a second referendum might not be such a good idea.

The referendum of 2016 exposed deep, deep divisions and rancor within British society, particularly in the lower and working classes. Wages have stagnated while house prices, especially in the prosperous south east where I have spent most of the past 7 years have soared to near comical levels. Check out Rightmove and see what £150,000 gets you. Spoiler: Sod all. A second referendum will not address any of this. In fact, it is more likely to foster resentment instead of resolving it. People feel that politicians don't give a damn about them and care only about enriching themselves and a second referendum where remain wins by 50-55% will just prove this to them. Even if Jeremy Corbyn bothered to campaign for remain or Boris Johnson put country ahead of career or whatever, this division would still be there, festering away until something gave.

As I said, I deeply oppose Brexit and would love to see it stopped. However, the poorer parts of the country feel like they have nothing to lose. I don't know how I would convince someone from Stoke-on-Trent why the EU is good for them personally.

Infini wrote: »

2) Agree to all the EUs conditions
3) Hard Brexit with severe economic and diplomatic damage.

Basically, you have to satisfy both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Do you think that this is possible? I do not. Ultimately, I think both the Conservative and Labour parties need to split. Ideally, there'd be a functioning PR system in place to make the notion less dreadful but, well...

PeadarCo

ancapailldorcha wrote:

As I said, I deeply oppose Brexit and would love to see it stopped. However, the poorer parts of the country feel like they have nothing to lose. I don't know how I would convince someone from Stoke-on-Trent why the EU is good for them personally.

The problem is the only way to convince someone in Stoke is for a hard brexit to happen. At that point maybe you have some chance when it hits them personally. And even that might not be enough. The UK can't leave the EU tomorrow. The physical infrastructure and required legal frameworks aren't there. But if you ever see comments on UK sites about Brexit it's not unusual for you to see people saying why they can't leave tomorrow /today. A lot of what the EU does is taken for granted. Its only when it's gone maybe people will see what they had.

But a hard brexit is bad for everyone EU States and UK. Only that it will hit the UK far far harder. But that isn't the way hard brexiters see it

Seth Brundle

They need a trial separation before they finally agree to the divorce!

trellheim

Basically, you have to satisfy both Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Do you think that this is possible? I do not. Ultimately, I think both the Conservative and Labour parties need to split. Ideally, there'd be a functioning PR system in place to make the notion less dreadful but, well...

That's a bit pessimistic - your case basically says its a slide over the cliff with no redemption - do we really believe that ? Worse, we will shoulder a lot of the fallout

I can nearly guarantee you foreign affairs and the other govt departments are frantically trying to get the EU onside to keep it light while looking over the shoulder at the UK going "throw us a frickin bone here" . However as you do point out the current UK governments best answer at the mo where this issue is concerned is self-annihilation over principle.

ancapailldorcha

trellheim wrote: »

That's a bit pessimistic - your case basically says its a slide over the cliff with no redemption - do we really believe that ? Worse, we will shoulder a lot of the fallout

Is it? Theresa May had to do a deal with the one party whose values match British values the least. She needs a deal that will satisfy at least most of her MP's, the DUP and possibly a few Labour centrists/right wingers if she can't get all of her MP's on board.

trellheim wrote: »

I can nearly guarantee you foreign affairs and the other govt departments are frantically trying to get the EU onside to keep it light while looking over the shoulder at the UK going "throw us a frickin bone here" . However as you do point out the current UK governments best answer at the mo where this issue is concerned is self-annihilation over principle.

That's as maybe but it's May, Davis, Fox and Johnson in the driving seat and the destination does not appear to be conducive to prosperity.

Sam Russell

Infini wrote: »

I honestly think there is no squaring it. Its down to 3 options

1) 2nd Referendum
2) Agree to all the EUs conditions
3) Hard Brexit with severe economic and diplomatic damage.

I honestly wish the UK would just drop the BS and go with option 1 if they dont want option 3 to happen because they will be forced to take 2 regardless if they dont want to ruin their country.

Think were all tired at this stage of the endless stonewalling.

1} Of course a second referendum does not need to ask the same question, or even give a simple yes/no answer.

2} The EU conditions depend on the red lines. Rub out a few lines and the EU offer changes.

3} Hard Brexit is almost trade war - no-one wants that bar a few nutters. The Irish border will be a side show compared to UK/France [Dover/Calais].

What ever makes you think that there are not dark forces looking to ruin their country?

Charles Babbage

The election system in Britain has a lot to answer for. If an Irish style system was there then in some constituencies they would still vote Conservative, but not necessarily for the nutters, and preferences from other parties would go to the more sensible individuals.

Enzokk

There was a fascinating vote in the House of Commons last night on school meals. As you would expect from the Tories they voted against a Labour motion on cuts on free school meals. The interesting thing for me on this vote was the following, firstly this is the kind of bills that will lose the Tories their majority at the next election. It will not be Brexit but local policies that will hurt families even more after 8 years of austerity that is not ending under this government.

The second thing is that the DUP supported the Government. That is not surprising as they are in a agreement with the Tories. What is galling is that they received a exemption from these cuts in NI. So the cuts are okay for poor people in England but the poor of Northern Ireland needs to be protected. DUP MP Jim Shannon attacked the cuts earlier in the day but voted for it later.

The DUP has also secured more funding for the North in the latest spring statement by the Chancellor and the Northern Ireland Secretary.

Some quotes from the story:

The only DUP MP to abstain in the vote on free school meals was Emma Little-Pengelly.

Her nine colleagues backed the Tories, including Jim Shannon, who had signed an early day motion attacking the cuts planned for England.

-

In a further boost to the Northern Ireland party, Chancellor Philip Hammond also agreed in his Spring Statement to a consultation on the scrapping of air passenger duty in the province.

A tranche of £410m in new funding for Belfast was released by Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley last week, including £80m for “immediate health and education pressures”.

With the Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government suspended, the UK government now directly sets its budget and has decided to maintain the £14,000 threshold for the province secured by the DUP last year.

Free School Meal Eligibility Cuts Go Ahead In England After Tory And DUP MPs Vote For Universal Credit Changes

trellheim

Is it in the Irish interest to push the EU for the easiest possible Brexit ... discuss...

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Is it in the Irish interest to push the EU for the easiest possible Brexit ... discuss...

No. it is in the Irish interest that Brexit never happens at all.

Leroy42

trellheim wrote: »

Is it in the Irish interest to push the EU for the easiest possible Brexit ... discuss...

Have you tried reading the thread?

AS Zubeneschamali says, the best outcome is that Brexit doesn't happen at all.

Failing that, the next best is of course that Brexit happens in as little meaningful way as possible.

There really is nothing to discuss. The only discussion is around whether Brexit is even worth it for the British themselves.

Harika

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No. it is in the Irish interest that Brexit never happens at all.

It is in the interest of the Irish, UK and EU that it doesn't happen.

trellheim

There really is nothing to discuss. The only discussion is around whether Brexit is even worth it for the British themselves.

We are on post 5959

Defining it in terms of "worth to the people of the UK" frequently crops up and misses why this is happening at all; they voted to leave.

My point was strictly in the Irish interest; denying they are leaving at all , or saying "never happen" is not a good basis for planning.

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

denying they are leaving at all , or saying "never happen" is not a good basis for planning.

Of course we should plan for the worst, mostly so that we can call their bluff when they say No Deal is better than the Canada deal they will be offered.

Leroy42

This was your post

trellheim wrote: »

Is it in the Irish interest to push the EU for the easiest possible Brexit ... discuss...

trellheim wrote: »

We are on post 5959

Defining it in terms of "worth to the people of the UK" frequently crops up and misses why this is happening at all; they voted to leave.

My point was strictly in the Irish interest; denying they are leaving at all , or saying "never happen" is not a good basis for planning.

Now you have moved the goalposts to whether we are planning for it or not.

Do you have any input/opinion on it?

demfad

trellheim wrote: »

We are on post 5959

Defining it in terms of "worth to the people of the UK" frequently crops up and misses why this is happening at all; they voted to leave.

My point was strictly in the Irish interest; denying they are leaving at all , or saying "never happen" is not a good basis for planning.

The UK is a parlaimentary democracy so the 'they' in question is the UK parliament. That is why this thing can unhappen if the UK parliament says so.
Ergo Brexit is not a done deal until March 2019 so reversing it is still very much on the table until then and discussing it is legitimate.

Leroy42

It is strange that Brexit has utilised the 'will of the people' to effectively remove the sovereignty from the parliament itself. It appears that individual MP's are no longer allowed to state any view that is different from the result of the vote.

One wonders how long this will last

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is strange that Brexit has utilised the 'will of the people' to effectively remove the sovereignty from the parliament itself. It appears that individual MP's are no longer allowed to state any view that is different from the result of the vote.

One wonders how long this will last

30th March 2019 when it will no longer be the will of the people but those people over there's fault instead. Who those people are will of course be dependent on which politician you talk to; be it the Tories, EU as a whole, unelected bureaucrats etc. and a surprising number of people will claim to have been remainers all along.

trellheim

Now you have moved the goalposts to whether we are planning for it or not.

Do you have any input/opinion on it?

Yes of course I do ; I firmly believe the focus should be on minimizing the impact on Ireland, and part of that should be pushing the rest of the EU to go easy on it and forward planning for that. The wrong Brexit will badly affect us. There are certain things we can and should be doing.

Leroy42

What do you mean by easy? Do you mean they should continue to have access with no responsibilities? Do you mean they should have a bigger say in the drafting of regulations but be free to operate outside them?
Should they have to abide by the regulations such as beef traceability or can they be let away with that?

Should they be allowed to strike trade deals with other nations giving them a competitive advantage over us and thus costing us jobs whilst still having access to all the benefits?

We are trying to minimise the impact on Ireland by at the least having no border on the Island.

Water John

It's simple. Giving you the line, that they voted to leave and will do so, (though, I agree with Demfad), if the UK stays in the SM and CU is our obvious preference.

steddyeddy

trellheim wrote: »

Yes of course I do ; I firmly believe the focus should be on minimizing the impact on Ireland, and part of that should be pushing the rest of the EU to go easy on it and forward planning for that. The wrong Brexit will badly affect us. There are certain things we can and should be doing.

Depends what you mean by going easy on it. The EU are reiterating their conditions for trade and freedom of movement and the UK are ignoring them. There's not much the EU or Ireland can do in the face of such abject stupidity.

Capt'n Midnight

This is grim. If you are an EU worker in the UK , you've lost because of the fall in sterling, real pay has frozen as costs rise and now there's a huge tax hike on the horizon.

It's the economy, stupid *
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43397798

The Institute for Fiscal Studies added that dismal productivity, earnings and GDP growth had become the "new normal".
...
"If high-paid jobs - and EU citizens, who are well represented among high earners in the UK - relocate elsewhere, the consequences for the Exchequer will be severe," he added.

Given the outlook, the IFS said tax rises of £30bn would be needed each year to retain public spending and balance the budget by the middle of the next decade - a Conservative Party pledge.

*The other Slogans from Clinton's 1992 campaign were
Change vs. more of the same
Don't forget health care.

Jim2007

trellheim wrote: »

Yes of course I do ; I firmly believe the focus should be on minimizing the impact on Ireland, and part of that should be pushing the rest of the EU to go easy on it and forward planning for that. The wrong Brexit will badly affect us. There are certain things we can and should be doing.

You need to be very clear on one thing, neither we nor the other 26 states representing about 450m people are about to give up on our purpose or principles for the sake of a third country - the UK. Yes of course we will do our best to minimise the impact, but if the choice is principles versus the UK then principles wins every time.

Water John

TM now having to go to the EU and ask for support on sanctions against Russia.

trellheim

ou need to be very clear on one thing, neither we nor the other 26 states representing about 450m people are about to give up on our purpose or principles for the sake of a third country - the UK. Yes of course we will do our best to minimise the impact, but if the choice is principles versus the UK then principles wins every time.

What ? You don't see a place for pragmatism here ? Which particular principles are you defending here. If Irish people ( in Ireland ) are the worse for Brexit over our own principles, have we "won every time" to use your own words ?

J Mysterio

Water John wrote: »

TM now having to go to the EU and ask for support on sanctions against Russia.

She's really getting wobbly is May. Reacting to all of this in a pretty amateur way it seems. It's just reactionary chaos over there. Wildly stumbling from one disaster to the next.

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

What ? You don't see a place for pragmatism here ? Which particular principles are you defending here. If Irish people ( in Ireland ) are the worse for Brexit over our own principles, have we "won every time" to use your own words ?

You haven't answered what you meant by taking it easy with the UK. The UK has made it very difficult for us as we are in a tough position where we are going to lose out because of a decision that we didn't make. However the worse decision would be to do the same as the UK, so yeah winning for us right now will hurt. But it will hurt less than the win UKIP is celebrating in the UK right now.