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Do you think property will crash again?

LambDev

I was reading the thread on prices in Ashbourne increasing by 55k, and the comments were interesting. eg ("Similar happened in 07", "Here we go again").

During the last boom and subsequent crash, I was only a child/young teenager. I'm 22 now, but I didn't really experience the last one.

It's not going to happen soon, but does anyone predict a crash long term, and what market conditions will cause it?

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Andrew Beef

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

[Deleted User]

We should ban the word snowflake

cursai

bluewolf wrote: »

We should ban the word snowflake

We should ban the term frivolous careers. It's illogical.

[Deleted User]

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

Great point. Well made. Would read again.

Skedaddle

The issue is what’s our alternative?

A single bilateral trade deal with Brexit Britian and leave the EU?! That's really not an option at all.

Tying two bricks together doesn't make them float.

The UK is proving to be completely untrustworthy at the moment, as they're willing to just agree to something then ignore that agreement. I'm sure we would be in an extremely vulnerable position if we ended up totally dependent on the whims of the British Government. We wouldn't be an equal trade partner. We'd be back to being buffeted around by a large and not always friendly neighbour.

We would also be directly exposed to Trump who thinks that Ireland's trade surplus needs to be tarrifed back to balanced. Within the EU he has to have a trade war with the world's largest economic entity. Outside the EU he would simply destroy us and not give a damn.

We're also a founder member of the Euro. Relaunching IEP would have enormous risks to the Irish economy and we've no idea how it might trade. It could launch with an immediate run on Irish assets for example.

All of our foreign direct investment and much of our domestic economy is dependent on access to the single market. So you'd immediately start to lose most of that.

Ireland could be looking at a contraction back to the 1970s

We've a choice between an unstable neighbour or sticking it out with the EU.

My view of it is that we don't have any option but to ride out Brexit in the EU and just try to make the most of it.

Ireland interests don't necessarily align with the UK and we just need to be a bit ruthless about putting Irish interests first.

We've interests that align very closely with a lot of the small Northern European countries, especially the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. Even Germany and France aren't going to want to see a catastrophic Brexit. We need to fight our corner and use all the EU diplomacy we can muster and we do actually have far better connection in Europe than the UK has.

The EU isn't out to punish. It's just not prepared to be ridden by the UK after Brexit which is pretty much what the Tories seem to want to do. They're very much ready to try and undermine the EU while using it.

Even from an Irish perspective, it's not in Ireland's interest that the UK gets a cakeist deal that gives them FDI advantages over Ireland. If they retained total market access and no regulatory requirements, tons of investment would just move from Ireland (and not just FDI bit Irish businesses too) in exactly the same way as they'd move from France or Belgium or NL.

We need to be careful but I think we also need to avoid being suckered into believing Tories and UKIP pretending to like us. It's a completely manipulative wolf in sheep's clothing, or in this case donning the green jersey and feigning concern.

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest risk to our economy, but we don't really have much option but to brace for impact and deal with it, come what may.

kaymin

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

If everyone followed that logic then who will be left to do the traditionally low paying jobs like waitressing, cleaning, security, warehouse work, lorry drivers - all essential jobs, none that I'd consider frivolous or easy, yet don't pay enough to buy a property.

Bob24

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

Very good troll.

Andrew Beef

kaymin wrote: »

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

If everyone followed that logic then who will be left to do the traditionally low paying jobs like waitressing, cleaning, security, warehouse work, lorry drivers - all essential jobs, none that I'd consider frivolous or easy, yet don't pay enough to buy a property.

We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.

thierry14

Andrew Beef wrote: »

We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.

Thats a fair point

I don't see a crash coming nor do I see a boom

Not much building going on, credit isnt easy to get, cheap labour and materials to build don't exist, unemployment is low at same time wage inflation is low

I think prices even in Dublin are very reasonable

New builds in D13 + D15 for 350 - 400k

Bit more nearer city like Terenure and Dun Laoghaire

Couples earning a modest 100k combined that isn't bad

Bob24

Andrew Beef wrote: »

We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.

Define what you mean by city centre of a major city in the world. Dublin is not exactly London, Tokyo, New York, or Paris. And D1/D2 is not exactly Westminster, Shinjuku, Manhattan, or Le Marais.

Andrew Beef

Exactly; how is €350-400k for a decent BER’d new build in Dublin not reasonable?

kaymin

Andrew Beef wrote: »

Exactly; how is €350-400k for a decent BER’d new build in Dublin not reasonable?

Isn't that price range 8+ times the average industrial wage? And there's not many new builds in Dublin that are priced as low as that.

Andrew Beef

Bob24 wrote: »

Andrew Beef wrote: »

We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.

Define what you mean by city centre of of major city. Dublin is not exactly London, Tokyo, New York, or Paris. And D1/D2 is not exactly Westminster, Shinjuku, Manhattan, or Le Marais.

Think of the organisations that we have here that pay their staff serious money: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google, AerCap, Microsoft, Arthur Cox, McCannFitzGerald, A&L Goodbody, KPMG, Matheson, PWC, Deloitte, Davy, EY, Avolon, the big pharma companies, etc. There are a finite number of properties in “Dublin, Dublin”; how on earth are the “nurse and the guard” ever going to afford to live anywhere other than Dublin 15 or beyond when they’re facing firepower like that?

It happened in London; Abramovich lands in Kensington and forces the hedge fund guy into Chelsea; the hedge fund guy then forces the bank guy into Fulham; the bank guy then forces the solicitor into Putney; the solicitor then forces the small businessman into Wimbledon; the small businessman then forces the tradesman into Epsom; the tradesman then forces the nurse into Guilford.

That’s what happens in big cities; we can’t all live in Manhattan.

Lumen

Andrew Beef wrote: »

We become like every other major city in the world where those people live elsewhere and commute. The idea that a waitress/nurse/security guard can live 20 mins from the city centre is a dead duck. They will need to live in Mullingar.

Waiters, nurses and security guards in London don't do 100 mile round trips to work. Commuting is expensive.

Bob24

Andrew Beef wrote: »

how on earth are the “nurse and the guard” ever going to afford to live anywhere other than Dublin 15 or beyond

[...]

That’s what happens in big cities; we can’t all live in Manhattan.

But again no matter which companies are established here we are not a big city and we have no Manhattan.

Also Dublin 15 (this post) and Mullingar (your previous post I was replying to) are not exactly the same thing.

If you're saying it makes sense that a nurse can't afford to live in Dublin 4 and will have to go somewhere else in the city I will of course agree, but if you are still saying Mullingar is as good as they should get then it is very different. All this seems very vague :-/

theboringfox

kaymin wrote: »

The comments he has made in that article seem completely logical to me. If the EU expects the UK to cut off NI by having a separate economic region there that effectively stays in the EU then the EU can't really be serious about achieving a soft Brexit. What May seeks seems very reasonable to me also:

'The Prime Minister has instead called for either a customs partnership, under which the UK "mirrors" EU requirements on goods from around the world, or a streamlined customs arrangement, using technology and "trusted trader" schemes to do away with the need for customs checks.'

Agreed

Yes I'm hoping for a crash and I say that as a home owner. I don't see much upside to another generation being priced out or slaves to mortgages for the rest of their lives so they can fill the pockets of a few land owners and developers.

I would never hope for any form of economic crash in Ireland and property falling would not happen in isolation. The last major crash did not help a large number of people get access to cheap property. It was horrible.

I don't want to see houses being unaffordable but I don't think we are unique in Ireland in where house prices are versus income. We have good controls in place now from Central Bank.

oceanman

thierry14 wrote: »

Thats a fair point

Couples earning a modest 100k combined that isn't bad

modest!.....what planet are you living on??

Ray Palmer

kaymin wrote: »

Yes I'm hoping for a crash and I say that as a home owner. I don't see much upside to another generation being priced out or slaves to mortgages for the rest of their lives so they can fill the pockets of a few land owners and developers.

The crash has resulted in the current situation and another will make it worse again later on. As a result of the last crash a huge amount of people were aged out of getting mortgages. That meant the rental market needed to increase in size above population normal growth rates. The resulting lack of investment in property due to increasing charges on landlords made everything worse.
If that happens again would be devastating thing that would have massive long term affects.

Andrew Beef

oceanman wrote: »

thierry14 wrote: »

Thats a fair point

Couples earning a modest 100k combined that isn't bad

modest!.....what planet are you living on??

a

€50k a year is a modest salary.

Bob24

Andrew Beef wrote: »

a

€50k a year is a modest salary.

Of course many people in Dublin make more that that, but more of them make less and calling it modest is rather hyperbolic. If you consider it modest, then you have to agree it makes sense for an entry level bus driver to be on 50k (a "modest" salary is the least they should get). Personally I don't think it makes sense so I won't call 50k modest.

kaymin

Ray Palmer wrote: »

The crash has resulted in the current situation and another will make it worse again later on. As a result of the last crash a huge amount of people were aged out of getting mortgages. That meant the rental market needed to increase in size above population normal growth rates. The resulting lack of investment in property due to increasing charges on landlords made everything worse.
If that happens again would be devastating thing that would have massive long term affects.

I'd argue the long term adverse effects are currently being sowed for a lot of people and the solution is not to maintain high prices but to reduce prices by reducing the cost of land (through use it or lose it taxes), reducing the tax element of the cost of houses and reducing the level of costly bureaucracy associated with building houses - this approach is in the interests of society at large but obviously a lot of vested interests would not be in favour.

Villa05

theboringfox wrote:

Sometimes reading on here you would think people are hoping for a crash

The way the property market is being managed we are not only guarenteeing a crash will happen but we are maximising the damage that this crash will bring.

That is a long way away from from hoping for a crash. It's trying to highlight to people the dangers of the current path of the property market, the root cause of these dangers and offer solutions

Ralph Paton

Villa05 wrote: »

The way the property market is being managed we are not only guarenteeing a crash will happen but we are maximising the damage that this crash will bring.

That is a long way away from from hoping for a crash. It's trying to highlight to people the dangers of the current path of the property market, the root cause of these dangers and offer solutions

How are we guaranteeing a crash? What are the dangers exactly? I'm asking sincerely. I can't see the circumstances which would trigger a property crash. Expensive property doesn't imply a crash is imminent, or even likely. The only circumstances I could see triggering a crash is something external and completely unpredictable at this point in time. E.g. the details of how Brexit is implemented, or a war involving some of the major economic superpowers (China, USA, Russia).

Andrew Beef

All I see are people ranting “there’s gonna be a crash!” without any basis for thinking it.

There aren’t enough properties, there are loads of people trying to buy them, and credit is hard to come by.

How exactly is a crash going to happen? This is a classic case of people thinking that the last crash is going to happen again. The reality is that we’re a million miles from that.

mortimer33

Andrew Beef wrote: »

All I see are people ranting “there’s gonna be a crash!” without any basis for thinking it.

There aren’t enough properties, there are loads of people trying to buy them, and credit is hard to come by.

How exactly is a crash going to happen? This is a classic case of people thinking that the last crash is going to happen again. The reality is that we’re a million miles from that.

Well Ireland is a small open economy that has a large young mobile workforce. Dublin in particular has a huge number of non-Irish living/working. if the economy suffers due to any number of external factors they won't be staying for the weather.

Geuze

oceanman wrote: »

modest!.....what planet are you living on??

Average earnings, incl. overtime, are 45k approx.

Actually 45,611 in 2016.

That is a national figure, so Dublin will be higher.

So a couple on 100k is not unusual.

Indeed, a couple on 100k could be below-average in Dublin.

Mickiemcfist

Geuze wrote: »

Average earnings, incl. overtime, are 45k approx.

Actually 45,611 in 2016.

That is a national figure, so Dublin will be higher.

So a couple on 100k is not unusual.

Indeed, a couple on 100k could be below-average in Dublin.

A better figure to use would be median rather than average, I feel the median would be lower than 50k

Brussels Sprout

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The only people who are being priced out of the market are lazy Snowflakes who think that the world owes them a living. People who work hard and don’t pursue frivolous careers are fine.

I was reading through this thread and you made some intelligent comments but you turned into a cartoonish figure right around this post.

d0157063

Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)

The_Honeybadger

vikas.kshatriya wrote: »

Can someone please elaborate how "Brexit" will cause property crash as mentioned earlier in some of the posts. To me its other way round. Immediately after the Brexit results, there was sudden increase in the population, lot of people came back,resulting in rental and buying capacity increase. This can be verified as Irish passport office hired 80+ staff at the time. As a result, rental is now practically impossible and buying increased by 100,000 at-least compared to before (lot of supporting examples in South Dublin)

I think the demand for rental properties in particular is so great that there is no chance Brexit will cause a 2008 level property crash. It could negatively effect consumer sentiment and will almost certainly put enormous pressure on SME’s that are dependent on the UK market so you could certainly see things cooling, temporarily at least. It is our biggest export market by a distance and a hard brexit could have a devastating effect on these companies that trade everything from food to engineering and I.T. services in to the UK. This will have a knock on effect on jobs and incomes here. I don’t have figures to hand but this sector is a massive employer in our Economy. Brexit will also be a real test for the EU and the euro.

The negotiations are so chaotic that it’s anybody’s guess what will happen at this point, and anybody that tells you something will definitely happen is guessing. We could end up with a hard Brexit that cripples our economy or the whole thing could get watered down to the point where they may as well stay in the EU. My guess is we’ll get something in the middle.