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Do you think property will crash again?

LambDev

I was reading the thread on prices in Ashbourne increasing by 55k, and the comments were interesting. eg ("Similar happened in 07", "Here we go again").

During the last boom and subsequent crash, I was only a child/young teenager. I'm 22 now, but I didn't really experience the last one.

It's not going to happen soon, but does anyone predict a crash long term, and what market conditions will cause it?

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boege

Here is how it will happen:

At present builders cannot make a margin so prices will rise for the immediate future as demand outstrips supply. Once prices increase to a point of profit, construction will come back on line realigning supply with demand. Then the old 'property ladder' will be debated ad nausea and politicians will come under pressure to do something to 'help people get on the property ladder' ... at this point go back to 2000 and watch a repeat of what happened. It may not go as wild as it was in the past as backstops now in place at EU level (it would also need the emergence of an 'Anglo')

The fundamental problem is the Irish desire to own a property - we will ultimately elect people to give us what we want. If proof were needed just look at the recent NDP, where a ban on rural single site development was removed in the final draft.

My prediction for timing of this event is about 25 years from the start of the last boom which was about 1997, so by 2022 the next bubble will kick off proper. The only hope I see is that house price rises are now aligned with interest rate changes whereas in the last boom they were going in opposite directions.

Johngoose

A general election will get Fine Gael building houses at a huge rate, just for p.r. alone. This will calm the housing market post election.

Skedaddle

There's a mess with Brexit and a potential US-launched trade war on the radar at the moment.

Fingers crossed, but we're in very choppy waters at the moment and potentially going to be buffeted by both of those very unpredictable political systems in the UK and USA.

I'd say if anywhere that's where the next big economic risk is going to emerge from. It's unlikely to be domestically driven in Ireland.

Experience_day

I'd say we have a major risk with Brexit. We've firmly allied ourselves with Europe (I've a lot of contact with the UK, and it's gaining a negative momentum on the role we are having rightly or wrongly!) so find ourselves at risk of a campaign against Irish produce, which may not be offset enough by gaining financial services (especially with the p1ss poor infrastructure here...)

I don't necessarily think we can rely on the EU having our backs beyond the superficial, so would be worried about how we could lose out...

Skedaddle

It's not petty UK tabloid jingoistic politics I'm concerned about. I think Brexit could trigger an economic crisis in the UK before long that could have a very serious impact here.

I think the EU genuinely does have our backs on this but I'm not sure that anything is going to prevent a crisis in the UK itself which will have a big ripple effect here and beyond.

As for Ireland picking up inward investment because of Brexit, we absolutely are already doing so.

Brexit is bring driven entirely ideologically without any real concern for the economic and practical realities and there's breathtakingly irresponsible, incompetent and unpredictable politics over there at present.

Trump is the other loose cannon. He could trigger anything from a trade war to a nuclear war before he's done.

Experience_day

Skedaddle wrote: »

It's not petty UK tabloid jingoistic politics I'm concerned about. I think Brexit could trigger an economic crisis in the UK before long that could have a very serious impact here.

I think the EU genuinely does have our backs on this but I'm not sure that anything is going to prevent a crisis in the UK itself which will have a big ripple effect here and beyond.

As for Ireland picking up inward investment because of Brexit, we absolutely are already doing so.

Brexit is bring driven entirely ideologically without any real concern for the economic and practical realities and there's breathtakingly irresponsible, incompetent and unpredictable politics over there at present.

Trump is the other loose cannon. He could trigger anything from a trade war to a nuclear war before he's done.

But we are reliant on the goods that we sell Britain on a daily basis. Not high value items but items such as dairy. Negative campaigns don't require people to give up high value items such as BMW's etc, rather just choosing to buy British milk etc. Not beyond the realm of reason...

I think the EU will have our back to an extent as we're doing a great job of being their bludgeon with regards the border issue. It's strengthened the EU considerably and they'll happily toss us a bone whilst it's the case. But I genuinely (just my opinion) cannot see they will particularly care about a small island nation when they've got far bigger problems and opportunities to deal with.

And my casual opinion on the success of Brexit in Ireland with a focus on IB & PM is that we are not securing the caliber of jobs that we need to. No point getting more FA/BO/Ops as they are susceptible to automation and gradual phasing out anyway. We need hard hitting wins with a focus on true front to back. And we need it quickly and in groups so senior management can feel they have a hub of peers they can network with.

Which isn't going to happen when the perception of the property market is so poor. And the poor infrastructure both in terms of transport and entertainment. Just my 0.02!

Agreed with you on Trump though, major risk.

Bob24

Experience_day wrote: »

I think the EU will have our back to an extent as we're doing a great job of being their bludgeon with regards the border issue. It's strengthened the EU considerably and they'll happily toss us a bone whilst it's the case. But I genuinely (just my opinion) cannot see they will particularly care about a small island nation when they've got far bigger problems and opportunities to deal with.

Agreed. What keeps us the EU's support is the border issue which is a pain point they know they can't be seen as fooling around with given the historical implications (and about which Ireland has been very cooperative). But this is a temporary issue and once it is not on the radar anymore Ireland won't weight very much in Brexit or post-Brexit related decisions - for example if the UK leaves the common market an there is a will in Brussels to "punish" it by making it hard to negotiate new trade deals, no amounts of Irish protestations that no deal would hurt our economy badely would have much influence over the EC.

In the mean time, for geographical, historical, and cultural reasons, the UK won't stop being a privileged export market for us. So I certainly hope the appearance of being all-in with the EU is only true in public, and that in private we are having direct talks to the UK about where we are going forward.

Villa05

Andrew Beef wrote:

In the run up to that last crash, credit was being thrown around like confetti; now thatâ€™s not the case. Similarly, far too many properties were being built; now far too few properties are being built. And before the last crash happened, rental yields (i.e. rent relative to property value) were ridiculously low; now theyâ€™re reasonable enough.

On the other side
Much of that money lent in 00"s is not being repaid. Ptsb 25% non performance in their loanbook.

Government had a pension reserve fund to cushion the fall and very low debt. Now the opposite is the case

Eu/Ecb have been helpful in some respects in arresting the falls. That help won't be there when it happens again

strange_duck wrote:

the last crash was part of a perfect storm of domestic and international economic carnage , even with that reality , we overshot the bottom here by a distance by 2012 , especially in dublin where anyone who bought a two bed terraced house in the likes of oxmantown road stoneybatter is today realising yields of 12% easily having bought for a little along with 200 k

There was no overshoot. There was massive interference by Gov EU and Ecb to prevent the overshoot going down

There is also significant interference currently by the state in ensuring significant price rises continue into the future

The higher the rise the harder the fall

The state won't have the resources or the friends to cushion the fall as we repeat the mistakes of the past

Skedaddle

The issue is lack of supply and slow return of supply.
I don't see evidence of a massive credit bubble because the banks are being more conservative. Instead we're seeing a rental bubble, homelessness and very high priced being driven by cash buyers.

If you get a crash this time it'll be a load of people in negative equity rather than hitting the banks.

Domestic policy needs to manage the prices back down as they are so high that they're doing serious economic and social damage. However, what political party is going to come out with a policy saying we need to reduce house prices? Those with property would destroy them!

The other issue is that I still think Ireland has a mentality of over stretch yourself and then let inflation reduce your loan value. Since we joined the Euro, inflation is targeted at about 1% and controlled heavily. We've an economic environment that's like central and western continental Europe, not like Ireland and the UK of old which had periods of very steep inflation.

Our parents generation all borrowed high and mortgages were dissolved by inflation to very manageable levels. That's simply never going to happen again but people still think like that.

If you've a huge mortgage that's most of your income now. That's very unlikely to be any different in 20 years time. You've a big currency and price stability. Instead of using that to our benefit we're constantly using it as a brick wall to bash our heads against.

Skedaddle

I would add I'm seriously thinking about emigrating. I struggled through the 2008 crash and I'm not really interested in sitting here through another one.

This is being driven by stupid mismanagement of the economy by all parties and with the full support of the electorate. Once again we're believing our own hype and seeing an anomalous property bubble as a good thing.

I think I'll just head back to continental Europe. I've lived there before and the northern countries are all a lot more economically sane and stable than here or the UK or the US who seem to be wedded to the Anglo-Saxon boom bust cycle.

Wanderer78

Skedaddle wrote:

I think I'll just head back to continental Europe. I've lived there before and the northern countries are all a lot more economically sane and stable than here or the UK or the US who seem to be wedded to the Anglo-Saxon boom bust cycle.

You ll find most of the planet is operating under the same economic thinking, and it looks like the next crash could be as big as 2008, if not bigger, only thing is, nobody knows the details of what, when, where and how. Some countries could indeed whether the storm better though.

Skedaddle

The issue here is the property bubble is exposing us to what could be significant global turmoil.

There isn't much we can do about Brexit. The UK seems to be locked into dogmatic thinking on it that's not dissimilar to Trump's kind of illogical, populist, jingoistic nonsense.

If / when Britian starts to feel the impact of that we will inevitably feel it too. I'm far more worried about the UK going into a major deep recession than the trade barriers. There's already significant price inflation (ahead of income inflation) and evidence of serious problems with retail emerging, which is being blamed by the media on online. However, I'm not convinced by that explanation. It looks like belts are tightening over there.

Ultimately, they'll have to cut some kind of deal as their entire supply chains are integrated into European (including here).

Bear in mind Ireland is also currently a bigger export market for British goods and services than China is and by quite a bit. If they cut us off they'll cost themselves billions too. It's not an entirely one way relationship and is the equivalent of the UK cutting off a high spending major English city region.

In terms of Irish exports, it has a big impact but our largest export markets are the US and Eurozone (and EU 27). We are also very actively able to divert a lot of our agricultural exports because a lot of them are just big generic products like meat and milk. We've grown a lot of exports of dairy in the last few months to Germany for example.

We over state agriculture here because of historical notions that we're heavily dependent on it. It's only a small % of Irish GDP and GNI. It has a disproportionately big impact on jobs though in rural areas.

What worries me more is small and medium Irish services companies who have huge focus on the UK and may struggle to replace those contracts. They've language barriers to get into the continental market and they may lose UK income not only because of trade barriers, but because of sinking Sterling value.

On the upside, a lot of Irish services companies can potentially replace UK companies domestically and in Europe who will be excluded from or at least much less easily able to access public tenders for example.

In terms of processed foods there are a lot of UK manufacturers going to lose market share here and that has a boon for Irish small and medium food producers.

It is going to have huge swings and roundabouts for the Irish economy but the main take home point is it's going to potentially be a very bumpy ride for Ireland and probably a worse one for the UK.

Our housing market is a huge risk. It's like carrying a bucket of petrol while running around a bonfire nextdoor. It absolutely needs to be brought back to sanity again but I see zero political will to stop it and I don't see any demand from middle Ireland to reduce price growth as they feel they're benefiting from it - even if it's only paper wealth in most cases.

Andrew Beef

Skedaddle wrote: »

Our parents generation all borrowed high and mortgages were dissolved by inflation to very manageable levels. That's simply never going to happen again but people still think like that. If you've a huge mortgage that's most of your income now. That's very unlikely to be any different in 20 years time.

I don’t believe anyone thinks like that. In any event, it’s simply not the case. We have macroprudential rules in place whereby mortgages can’t represent “most of your income”. For example, our Central Bank Rules-compliant mortgage represents circa 25% of our take-home pay. In 20 years time, the back will have been broken of the mortgage, and even inflation at 2% (which is what the ECB are targetting) will have diminished the real value of the outstanding principal. Even if our incomes remain static, which they won’t, we’ll be fine.

corks finest

LambDev wrote: »

I was reading the thread on prices in Ashbourne increasing by 55k, and the comments were interesting. eg ("Similar happened in 07", "Here we go again").

During the last boom and subsequent crash, I was only a child/young teenager. I'm 22 now, but I didn't really experience the last one.

It's not going to happen soon, but does anyone predict a crash long term, and what market conditions will cause it?

I'm an ordinary guy approaching 60, travelled extensively,lived in several countries,and not an expert on anything,but think our government is leading us to another property meltdown, worse than the last,have a teen son,lots of grandkids,and dont think Ireland will be a nice place to live in in the v near future,powers that be (leo the Langer and co)pls take note /get serious ,build apartments etc,long leases like most normal European countries,or the cream will leave again.

Skedaddle

I've encountered quite a few people who think like that. Their entire notion is that they'll owe fiddle all in 20 years' time and that the property will be worth a LOT more in numerical terms than it was when they bought it.

It's most definitely embedded in the psyche not only of the general public, but of the lending institutions too.

There's also a large middle class vote in Ireland that supports FG and FF policies of keeping house prices rising.
It's nice to feel like your 3-bed semi in Drumcondra or whatever is now worth 1.3 million, even though it's a completely unrealistic price based on average Irish income levels (or any average income levels for that matter in any sane economy.)

We absolutely need long-term lease options as many people also can't get mortgages as they're either too old or have insufficient income to reach the market prices demanded and they're not being planned for at all.

Everything about Irish political economics is propping up those with basic property while keeping the plebs happy with tokenism like Christmas welfare bonuses, while running the basic services that we all depend on like health into the ground and inflating another housing bubble.

Where exactly do they think the money for this is coming from? How do they think it's sustainable?
None of it makes any sense and what's worse is they're intelligent enough to know that too! They (and it's a big they as I think it's a large swathe of Irish society) are ignoring it in exactly the same kind of selective blindness that's going on in the UK on other topics.

It's also not like Ireland doesn't have a lot of political choices. We've a very, very open and representative and totally proportional democracy. It's one of the most democratic systems you could possibly come up with. So, sorry lads and ladies : you've only got yourselves to blame. You vote for this stuff OVER and OVER.

If you wanted change, you'd get change. The Irish system is VERY responsive and generally not ideologically driven at all. It's pretty clear that a lot of Ireland's quite happy to just live in the fantasy of their €1.2 million Euro semi-D imagining they've struck gold.

The only slight hope we might have is the ECB and the European Commission will have a bit of perspective and start issuing severe warnings and maybe we might not ignore them this time. It's a big maybe, but here's to hoping.

Andrew Beef

The real fantasy is someone on the average income thinking that they’ve a divine right to live within walking distance of the city centre.

Andrew Beef

corks finest wrote: »

or the cream will leave again.

I’ve news for you; it wasn’t the cream who left.

corks finest

Andrew Beef wrote: »

I’ve news for you; it wasn’t the cream who left.

New for you,cream did in the 80s

Skedaddle

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The real fantasy is someone on the average income thinking that they’ve a divine right to live within walking distance of the city centre.

Most of them don't think that, but they can't even afford to live within reasonable commuting distance.

We aren't building the right kinds of accommodation in the right places and we don't have proper transport infrastructure to link it up.

Actually, most of the central area of Dublin bizarrely has large collections of semi-derelict buildings, which I simply do not understand, given the demand for housing and commercial space.

There are huge areas of central Dublin that I would describe as totally underused and bordering on falling apart. Take a look around the "non-trendy Stoneybatter" areas of Dublin 7, Dublin 1 and Dublin 3. You've little bits that are nice and then it's large areas of really surprisingly bad dereliction.

If you wanted to live within walking distance of the City Centre in Dublin anyway, you're really looking at a selection of largely tumble down 19th century buildings and some modern apartments but not all that many.

Dublin clearly wants to be a "world class city" but it lacks the transport infrastructure to make the centre dense with businesses and lacks the housing to accommodate people to work in them. So, unless it starts getting those two issues right, it simply won't happen. It also won't allow serious use of tall buildings.

The fantasy that I am seeing in Dublin is a notion that it has a skyline that's worth protecting. There's a level of BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) in Ireland that really does not help. It's possibly driven by some really poorly thought out developments in the past, but it's bordering on a psychosis at this stage.

We live in living cities, we should protect the heritage and look of the place while remembering that they're not open air museums.

A few landmark towers in Dublin would not do any damage to the skyline and actually might make the place look a bit prosperous and modern for a change.

Without some radical rethink about how we use the built environment and what we're doing with Dublin (and other cities) Growth will be choked off and we're back into some kind of baseless property bubble that could easily go bang.

We also urgently need a lot more public transport in Dublin but also in Cork and elsewhere.

If you look at say the Dublin transit system, it's about suitable for a city the size of Cork if you compare it with what's possible somewhere like in France or Germany.

Dublin should have some kind of Luas-metro hybrid system running into EVERY major suburb. Two lines in 2018 is a complete joke!

Without proper transit systems, you can't open up serous housing developments and get people to and from work. So, effectively you're creating choke points in the city and driving the price of a narrow range of homes to insane levels while denying the city the possibility of ever growing into a serious urban centre.

We've poor and completely visionless planning in urban areas here and we are running our handful of cities as if they're small sprawling version of rural towns.

I hate to say it, but it's a complete joke of a place at times. We urgently need to get a bit realistic about what we're doing.

We talk big but we plan small.

Andrew Beef

corks finest wrote: »

Andrew Beef wrote: »

I’ve news for you; it wasn’t the cream who left.

New for you,cream did in the 80s

No they didn’t. I’ve more news for you; it’s never the cream who leaves.

Andrew Beef

I love this narrative that we somehow lose our brightest and best during an economic downturn.

The reality is a million miles from that; our brightest and best remain; they are employed in aircraft leasing, technology, the legal/accountancy/tax/medical professions, etc.

Pawwed Rig

Andrew Beef wrote: »

The reality is a million miles from that; our brightest and best remain; they are employed in aircraft leasing, technology, the legal/accountancy/tax/medical professions, etc.

the unemployable also stay. Or the ones that landed the public sector job (regardless of whether good or bad). There is a certain amount of brain drain during a down turn.

There are feck all jobs in aircraft leasing btw. They tend to be companies with millions in turnover and employees on fairly average salaries. All of the money leaves the country. There are fees for the big 4 accountancy firms so I guess the emplyees there benefit too.
Re tech - there is a limited amount of R&D in the country so you do not need to be the cream of the crop to work in the Intels and googles of this world.

Skedaddle

Andrew Beef wrote: »

I love this narrative that we somehow lose our brightest and best during an economic downturn.

The reality is a million miles from that; our brightest and best remain; they are employed in aircraft leasing, technology, the legal/accountancy/tax/medical professions, etc.

Our best and brightest who are not yet in employment or who have lower salary and career expectations during a recession most definitely do leave and others who might come here and join the talent pool opt to go elsewhere instead.

Those who have good jobs and are setup already won't necessarily go anywhere, provided they're not impacted in terms of job losses or quality of life reductions.

Typically what happens here during a recession is an entire generation of graduates, postgraduates and skilled workers leave. That's been the pattern and there's plenty of strong evidence to support it.

It's a global market for jobs and even within Europe, if a country isn't offering something interesting in terms of lifestyle, they aren't going to retain and attract people.

Wanderer78

Skedaddle wrote: »

The only slight hope we might have is the ECB and the European Commission will have a bit of perspective and start issuing severe warnings and maybe we might not ignore them this time. It's a big maybe, but here's to hoping.

i think you maybe putting too much hope into institutions such as the ecb and the european commission etc. i think theres large scale group think going on within these institutions and also within our political institutions regarding many of the matters you present, but i will agree with you, we have convinced ourselves, that rising house prices is good for us, when in fact, it is not. this is very evident for younger generations, as many are ending up in employment situations which are not as secure as older generations, and with poor pay increases compared to the rising costs of living, including the cost of housing.

i do personally believe global central bank policies such as qe are in fact failing, these type of policies only truly work if we continue to take on private debt, but i suspect we ve more or less maxed out on that for the time being, possibly indefinitely, for the reasons i mentioned above. id agree with australian economist steve keen when he uses the phrase, 'the walking dead of debt', to describe countries such as ours, i.e. we cannot truly grow unless we address our private debt issues, but our political institutions, including the institutions you mentioned, have become obsessed with public debt, and imposing idiotic policies such as austerity, in trying to deal with the wrong problem, further compounding the underlying issues.

kaymin

Skedaddle wrote: »

It is going to have huge swings and roundabouts for the Irish economy but the main take home point is it's going to potentially be a very bumpy ride for Ireland and probably a worse one for the UK.

According to Copenhagen Economics Ireland will suffer more than the UK from a hard Brexit.

http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-scenario-3849849-Feb2018/

I have zero faith in Varadkar and his hard-line approach to the UK's Brexit negotiations. The EU is just using us as a bargaining chip / negotiating tool - they'll discard us when it suits them as we have seen before. Yet Varadkar / Coveney blindly don't see the obvious.

Surprisingly good article in the indo on this:

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/leading-tory-brexiteer-attacks-leo-varadkars-border-stance-as-irresponsible-votechasing-immaturity-36665280.html

lcwill

I just don't see how a crash anything like the last one can happen again - that was the worst property crash ever experienced in a developed market economy.

To have a crash worse than that would require something close to a total economic/political/social meltdown with a Mad Max/The Road style outcome where you are worrying more about canned food and ammunition than what % of mortgage interest you can deduct.

There will be "crashes" for sure, but maybe 10/20/30% price drops, and not 50%+ like last time.

[Deleted User]

We need a building boom first. That'll be over the next few years. Maybe a crash after that.

theboringfox

kaymin wrote: »

According to Copenhagen Economics Ireland will suffer more than the UK from a hard Brexit.

http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-scenario-3849849-Feb2018/

I have zero faith in Varadkar and his hard-line approach to the UK's Brexit negotiations. The EU is just using us as a bargaining chip / negotiating tool - they'll discard us when it suits them as we have seen before. Yet Varadkar / Coveney blindly don't see the obvious.

Surprisingly good article in the indo on this:

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/leading-tory-brexiteer-attacks-leo-varadkars-border-stance-as-irresponsible-votechasing-immaturity-36665280.html

That article is just quoting one of the strongest voices in UK government pushing for full Brexit. That guy wants no customs or single market participation. He wants UK to get a full free trade deal with EU and basically keep all the positives of EU membership and remove all the negative. He absolutely couldn't care less about Ireland and if our politicians are being attacked by him then they are most likely doing well. Yes a Hard Brexit is very bad for Ireland but that's largely all that's on offer from this guy as EU will not agree to free trade deal.

If a hard brexit happens and it badly hits our economy it could yes reduce prices. But it'll also badly affect peoples ability to buy.

Sometimes reading on here you would think people are hoping for a crash

Q&A

kaymin wrote: »

According to Copenhagen Economics Ireland will suffer more than the UK from a hard Brexit.

http://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-scenario-3849849-Feb2018/
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In the context of 'property price crashes' it's a nice chart. It also shows how you can get wrapped up in numbers and lose sight of what's forecast to happen.

The thing that this study, and others, present is how future GROWTH RATES will be effected not actual LEVELS. Even in the worst case scenario most studies forecast positive growth (all lines go up). It's just not as strong compared to a soft- or no brexit situations. They're not talking Armageddon they're talking tapping the breaks. If they're right the majority of us we won't notice an appreciable change. That's not to say there won't be pockets harder hit areas but overall the Irish economy will keep ticking along.

Now let me use the same framework to discuss Irish property:

For Irish property the analogy could be a 30% decline in growth.... That's like saying rather than growing at 10% per year house prices will increase by 7%. So house prices will be lower than what they might otherwise have been but still above today's level.

This is how brexit had been presented so there's something for everyone:

for the optimist (nominal) prices will go up

For the pessimist (Real) prices will go down (Compared to no brexit prices).

To sum up you're all correct!

kaymin

theboringfox wrote: »

That article is just quoting one of the strongest voices in UK government pushing for full Brexit. That guy wants no customs or single market participation. He wants UK to get a full free trade deal with EU and basically keep all the positives of EU membership and remove all the negative. He absolutely couldn't care less about Ireland and if our politicians are being attacked by him then they are most likely doing well. Yes a Hard Brexit is very bad for Ireland but that's largely all that's on offer from this guy as EU will not agree to free trade deal.

The comments he has made in that article seem completely logical to me. If the EU expects the UK to cut off NI by having a separate economic region there that effectively stays in the EU then the EU can't really be serious about achieving a soft Brexit. What May seeks seems very reasonable to me also:

'The Prime Minister has instead called for either a customs partnership, under which the UK "mirrors" EU requirements on goods from around the world, or a streamlined customs arrangement, using technology and "trusted trader" schemes to do away with the need for customs checks.'

theboringfox wrote: »

If a hard brexit happens and it badly hits our economy it could yes reduce prices. But it'll also badly affect peoples ability to buy.

Agreed

theboringfox wrote: »

Sometimes reading on here you would think people are hoping for a crash

Yes I'm hoping for a crash and I say that as a home owner. I don't see much upside to another generation being priced out or slaves to mortgages for the rest of their lives so they can fill the pockets of a few land owners and developers.