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Are there too many weather warnings?

Mikewalsh

I saw another warning today for rain and wind no less

Shouldn't met eireann hold off on the warnings for the more extreme events

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Discodog

_Dara_ wrote: »

This afternoon.

Around 8pm this evening according to Hirlam & ME.

_Dara_

Discodog wrote: »

Very bad to issue the nationwide Red at 11pm. Many parents simply won't know. Here in West Galway the conditions are no different to yesterday. Emma isn't due until tonight.

This afternoon.

Discodog

Very bad to issue the nationwide Red at 11pm. Many parents simply won't know. Here in West Galway the conditions are no different to yesterday. Emma isn't due until tonight.

DOCARCH

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The red warning is for later today.

It's actually in effect now! As of 2300 yesterday.

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

igCorcaigh

greenpilot wrote: »

Red warning for the west not warranted. No snow here yet schools now jumped at the opportunity to close. Just back in from walking dog. Bit cold, bit windy, usual stuff. Now need to find babysitters as work has remained opened. Completely overhyped. Ballaghaderreen area.

Mod Edit: To avoid mis-information, the red warning is in effect now.

beefburrito

greenpilot wrote: »

Red warning for the west not warranted. No snow here yet schools now jumped at the opportunity to close. Just back in from walking dog. Bit cold, bit windy, usual stuff. Now need to find babysitters as work has remained opened. Completely overhyped. Ballaghaderreen area.

Check out Lahinch

http://www.lahinchsurfshop.com/lahinch-web-cam-271257cm1.html

It's not overhyped

greenpilot

Red warning for the west not warranted. No snow here yet schools now jumped at the opportunity to close. Just back in from walking dog. Bit cold, bit windy, usual stuff. Now need to find babysitters as work has remained opened. Completely overhyped. Ballaghaderreen area.

_Dara_

Blizzards aren’t common anywhere in Ireland.

Radharc na Sleibhte

It’s madness. Schools and businesses now are gonna close in Sligo, Mayo, Donegal today? For what exactly? Freezing cold and the very very feint possibility of a tiny bit of snow or hail here? High winds, freezing temperatures and snow are not a new phenomenon in the north west...!!!

Red warning, there has been a hail shower in Glenties. Please everybody stay indoors.

They need to adjust these red warnings, either the parameters for issuing or something, particularly now with what comes (shutdown) as a result of them being issued. And yes “people could die, just because it wasn’t bad in your area” etc etc..... But that’s exactly the point. They have issued a general nationwide red warning again when there is absolutely no need to do so again. Red warnings must be reserved for definitive specific chaos/danger/threat to life in a definitive area. They should up the parameters of orange or create an amber warning and save red for “get in your bunker”. Maybe we are just more weather hardy on the Atlantic coast but two days now sitting around and looking out the window at the same weather we always get, I don’t know.

Charles Babbage

The Red warning has been extended to the entire 26 counties while the 6 counties is yellow. Someone is off beam here. Few of the models show much snow in Monaghan or Donegal.

piuswal

Casualsingby wrote: »

And that's exactly my point it's a blanket warning for Dublin when the city centre is at best a yellow. That's why they need to improve their warning system and get rid of blanket county warnings, introduce a bubble type warning.

I’m afraid you are displaying lack of knowledge of weather forecasting and its challenges with your comments.

Let us step back from Dublin City Centre to the source of this weather.

Have a look at Europe, Google Maps or whatever and see Europe, from the top of Norway to Northern Italy and from Moscow to Galway.

Since Met Eireann issued a Weather Advisory last week regarding the current weather what we are getting now, it has travelled, roughly, across the area mentioned, c 4 million sq km or so.

On its way it has encountered a range of modifying factors.

Cities adding varying amounts of heat, mountains and valleys changing the wind flow, the influences of different vegetation, frozen water and open seas to list some.

It crosses into Britain, dumps a lot of snow there and then moves across the Irish Sea picking up energy again and finally impacts on Ireland.

Now add in the vertical extent, for simplicity let us say 10 km. We are now talking about a volume of 40 million cubic km.

During the week or so that it has taken to get here, that volume has had to be repeatedly measured and analysed and millions upon millions of mathematical calculations run, with the slightest error in the initial measurements being magnified over and over again, to arrive at values for the conditions over the island of Ireland, c 80,000 sq Km, which is just 2% of the area it has travelled over.

Now, you want Met Eireann to differentiate Dublin City Centre from its surrounds.

Let us be generous and say DCC is 2 by 2 km, 4 sq km. That is .005 % of the island, which in turn is 2% of the area over which the weather has travelled and been modified

and you want Met Eireann to distinguish between the City centre and the suburbs!

Really!

jimbobaloobob

I think the amount of warnings is proportional to the increase in people doing things for their famous for five minute videos.

sryanbruen

skeleton_boy wrote: »

First red snow warning for Scotland according to the BBC

Yeah, it was just that Cork Boy said the UK, which confused me.

skeleton_boy

sryanbruen wrote: »

The first red warning for snow in the UK was 18 January 2013 from what I know.

First red snow warning for Scotland according to the BBC

patmac

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

[QUOTE=sdanseo;106289341]UKMO have issued red warnings for Scotland. Very rare to see that since their impact-based criteria for red is so much higher.
The comments here sound positively scary

Apparently the first ever red warning issued for snow in the UK.

These warnings have only been in force since 2013 so not too surprising.

sryanbruen

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

[QUOTE=sdanseo;106289341]UKMO have issued red warnings for Scotland. Very rare to see that since their impact-based criteria for red is so much higher.
The comments here sound positively scary

Apparently the first ever red warning issued for snow in the UK.

The first red warning for snow in the UK was 18 January 2013 from what I know.

EDIT: Never mind, it was 2 February 2009.

Cork Boy 53

[QUOTE=sdanseo;106289341]UKMO have issued red warnings for Scotland. Very rare to see that since their impact-based criteria for red is so much higher.
The comments here sound positively scary

Apparently the first ever red warning issued for snow in the UK.

amadangomor

pegasus1 wrote: »

Zones like counties...:rolleyes::p

LOL

. Some counties are fairly big and have a range of topography/climate type so for example Wicklow could be split into coastal Wicklow, highland Wicklow and western Wicklow,.

Would be an actual Science based way of giving warnings instead of based on how the country was divided into counties a few hundred years which does not work as I've outlined already.

Would add subtelty to the warning system that more accuratly reflects what's happening on the ground.

Casualsingby

mugsymugsy wrote: »

Posting alerts by county is a bit crazy but then how else do they do it. Another one from Virginia here in East cavan and as others have said when I see an alert for Meath I take notice.

Local schools here were closed and others in surrounding areas closed up halfway through the day.

Can't believe this is only the start of it! Unreal never seen anything like it before.

Like so

tom1ie

amadangomor wrote: »

Have to agree with this, I'm a few hundred metres from the Meath border and thaey had a red warning today and here in Westmeath we were on yellow when the conditions on either side of the border were exactly the same. Need to break up the counties into zones and do it on that basis.

Would they be able to localize forecasts that well? What with the wind blowing snow all over the place, the snow doesn’t exactly obey county lines.

mugsymugsy

Posting alerts by county is a bit crazy but then how else do they do it. Another one from Virginia here in East cavan and as others have said when I see an alert for Meath I take notice.

Local schools here were closed and others in surrounding areas closed up halfway through the day.

Can't believe this is only the start of it! Unreal never seen anything like it before.

pegasus1

amadangomor wrote: »

Have to agree with this, I'm a few hundred metres from the Meath border and thaey had a red warning today and here in Westmeath we were on yellow when the conditions on either side of the border were exactly the same. Need to break up the counties into zones and do it on that basis.

Zones like counties...:rolleyes::p

seamus

jasper100 wrote: »

Red warning was completely OTT. A bit of snowy and a bit cold but nothing exceptional, extreme or severe.

Just as well they didn't issue one then.

amadangomor

Casualsingby wrote: »

And that's exactly my point it's a blanket warning for Dublin when the city centre is at best a yellow. That's why they need to improve their warning system and get rid of blanket county warnings, introduce a bubble type warning.

Have to agree with this, I'm a few hundred metres from the Meath border and thaey had a red warning today and here in Westmeath we were on yellow when the conditions on either side of the border were exactly the same. Need to break up the counties into zones and do it on that basis.

Tobinjl91

Met Eireann can never win with all the moaners on here :rolleyes:

Either they didn't give enough warning for something or they've overestimated the warning. Just because temple bar or your part of the city got a light dusting doesn't mean other places aren't much worse.

Just enjoy the snow :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Casualsingby

Artane2002 wrote: »

There's more to Dublin than the city centre. The red warning didn't say 'red warning for Dublin City Centre only'

And that's exactly my point it's a blanket warning for Dublin when the city centre is at best a yellow. That's why they need to improve their warning system and get rid of blanket county warnings, introduce a bubble type warning.

pistolpetes11

Casualsingby wrote: »

Red warning for City Centre and its a bit of slush. I'm aware other areas have red conditions but city centre isn't close, it's a bit of slush. Met Éireann concentrate on Dublin most as it's the highest densely populated area of the county. A red warning isn't Warranted for the city centre it's a bit of slush.

They didn't just do warning for the City centre , they done Dublin as a whole , the City centre is a small enough part and overall the Warning was Valid

sdanseo

jasper100 wrote: »

Red warning was completely OTT. A bit of snowy and a bit cold but nothing exceptional, extreme or severe.

Totally overhyped event. There is another event tomorrow which probably does warrant a red warning, but if the boy keeps crying wolf people won’t pay heed of them anymore.

Agree re. the crying wolf and long term the criteria do need to be adjusted. I do worry that if we had a significantly more dangerous event (a 1947 or a Debbie) maybe notice might not be taken.

But at the same time by anymeasure, Thursday night's event looks like a red warning. UKMO's prediction of yellow for Devon and Cornwall is way too low and will probably be upgraded.

But based on the current requirments MÉ were absolutely correct in their judgement, just like during Ophelia. Three lives lost and a million people without power then, even with the country shut down. We'd do well not to lose sight of that and what may have happened if the red warning had not issued. People NEED to look further than their back yard.

Artane2002

There's more to Dublin than the city centre. The red warning didn't say 'red warning for Dublin City Centre only'

Casualsingby

sdanseo wrote: »

Warnings are based on guidance, you are in the warm core of a large city. Dublin is bigger than the area between the canals.

In North county there are 15cm in places, in Baldonnel there were 16cm by 9am and presumably significantly more now.

Red warning absolutely warranted based on the numbers. Long term, switching to impact based criteria would give a different outcome but in this case it's totally justified and sensible.

Red warning for City Centre and its a bit of slush. I'm aware other areas have red conditions but city centre isn't close, it's a bit of slush. Met Éireann concentrate on Dublin most as it's the highest densely populated area of the county. A red warning isn't Warranted for the city centre it's a bit of slush.