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Summer 2018 - General Discussion

SNNUS

It's very far off but no harm to have a thread regarding the Weather for the Summer. Hopefully it will not all be in May as usual.

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Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

2006 and 2013 did not have the curse of the number "8". :P

But 8 is a lucky number in Asia so it may come to our rescue this time

On the flip side, I've heard that you pronounce "8" as "ba" in China... ba... bad

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

That is a reason why I think this summer may not be as bad as it could be.

2006 and 2013 did not have the curse of the number "8". :P

Artane2002

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

The two best summers I can remember we're 2006 and 2013. Both those years were Baltic in march as far as I can remember, so I've stocked up on suncream and shades ðŸ˜Ž I expect it to be rather cold untill the 1st week in June.

That is a reason why I think this summer may not be as bad as it could be.

Ultimate Seduction

The two best summers I can remember we're 2006 and 2013. Both those years were Baltic in march as far as I can remember, so I've stocked up on suncream and shades ðŸ˜Ž I expect it to be rather cold untill the 1st week in June.

sryanbruen

GLOSEA5 from the UK Met Office still shows a similar situation to Summer 2017. Though Summer 2017 was rubbish - to me at least - I'd much rather that over what the majority of outlooks or my analogues say.

I think July holds the worst prospects out of the Summer months for Summer 2018 in terms of the outlooks.

Graces7

Taking it day by day on this quixotic idyllic Atlantic island.

Today is utterly... summerlike yet with that fresh tang to it. Ocean .... blue as the sky, clear, sweet.. Am in love!

Artane2002

Thank you sryan

I feel like it's going to be a pretty average summer, with warmer spells offsetting the cooler spells. The analogues show that it's going to be a bad one but there's other signals that show good signs. Hence I'm thinking it's going to be pretty mixed summer. However, I think it might be slightly biased towards the warmer side. Sunshine would be average to slightly below average and rainfall would be a little above average. It would be interesting to see if anyone else agrees.

I'm no pro so take these with a pinch of salt!!

sryanbruen

Here ya go Artane2002.

Artane2002

I'm only using the NOAA composites now for the first time and I looked at a reanalysis of summers that were preceded by either a very cold or snowy spell during the winter. The composites are in a weird angle so I won't show them here, I'll just use words to describe them

It is a reanalysis of the summers of these years:
2011
2010
2009
2001
1985
1982
1979
1970
1969
1968
1956
1951

Features:
Very deep trough centred over Ireland and the UK affecting pretty much all of Western Europe.
Low heights over the rest of Europe but a small wedge of heights over Scandinavia.
Strong blocking around Greenland, especially to the North and West of it.
Small but deep trough over Siberia.
Trough over Eastern Canada and Western Alaska.

Giving that last analogue posted by Sryan a run for its money!!

I would try to upload and fix it but imgur is being a massive pain in the butt.

sryanbruen

Ah here this has to be a joke at this stage..... another poor analogue for Summer 2018. Summers with low solar activity following sunny Winters.

sryanbruen

Another poor analogue to add to the mix for Summer 2018. It is of Summers that followed sunnier than average Winters. Not a good analogue at all, very wet with the jet stream going right through us but on a bit of a northerly direction so not overly cool.

Thankfully, there are some exceptions in there like 1949, 1959 and 1989 which were all great Summers but the majority of them are poor!

Artane2002

I don't really care what happens in July because I won't be here. A dry August and June would be nice though.

km79

Everyone else got there wish so I want mine
Dry. Warm. Then a heatwave form mid July for a month
Seems unlikely but stagger things are happening

sryanbruen

I guess I'll use this thread as a place for looking ahead to Summer 2018.

To start off here, this reanalysis is of Summers following cold Marches in Ireland for the IMT since 1975. There is a variety of different Summers in the package, some terrible ones like 1985 to 1987 or some epic ones like 2013, 2006, 1995, 1976 and 1975. The average 500mb height anomaly of them all shows an area of high pressure ridging over Ireland with it centred just to the north bringing plenty of anticyclonic conditions. The deep trough to the south and east of Europe is of similar position to Summer 1976 - which is included in this reanalysis.

Not looking too shabby for warm Summer in terms of cold Marches but then again, they're not all great!

sryanbruen

Reanalysis of Mays before solar minimum, Ireland pretty much within a settled high which would mean not particularly cold or mild but dry.

sryanbruen

Reanalysis of Aprils before solar minimum. Very straightforward month with mild and unsettled conditions.

sryanbruen

Reanalysis of Marches before solar minimum, very similar to the Spring reanalysis except perhaps a rather clearer cut for cold.

sryanbruen

Reanalysis of Springs before solar minimum, a bit of a strange pattern. Knife edge of mild and wet or cold and wet.

Artane2002

km79 wrote: »

The storm chasers got their major Storm
The snow bunnies have been spoiled

Us sun worshipers better get our reward . 4 week heat wave after I come back from my summer holidays abroad in July please

What are the odds that we get the heatwave while you are on holidays? :pac::D:p

km79

The storm chasers got their major Storm
The snow bunnies have been spoiled

Us sun worshipers better get our reward . 4 week heat wave after I come back from my summer holidays abroad in July please

jdcv94

As much as I'd love a bit of snow now, I can't wait for the mild weather to settle in soon, the longer days always fill me with more energy! I especially like April/May because when high pressure comes it's clear skies and 14-20c in the sun. Extremely pleasant weather. Difference in the summer is that 14-20c will be under a lot of cloud cover or rain, and any clear sun is oppressive due to the humidity.

sryanbruen

Since I was given the response in the Winter discussion thread that I should post here, I have gone and did it. This is going to be my long range forecast for Spring 2018.

Due to the current events in the atmosphere, I think that many of us have forgotten that meteorological Spring begins in 2 days time from me writing this. However, that doesn't mean I have as I've been working away here on my Spring 2018 forecast for you guys. As usual with these long range forecasts, they're highly experimental and should not be relied upon, they're just for fun. In these forecasts, I give my predictions as well as explain where I get these predictions from and my methodology I use to forecast the season. Hopefully, Spring 2018 will be easier to forecast here than Winter 2017/18. Now let's get into this.

Firstly, I'm a talk about solar activity. The effects of solar activity on the Spring are much more complicated and less certain than Winter. In case nobody knows, it has been researched that the coldest of Winters or most blocked Winters occur before, during or after solar minimum. Solar minimum is the point where solar activity is at its lowest and there are lots of spotless days on the sun. Years of solar minimum of previous solar cycles include 2008/09, 1995/96, 1985/86, 1976/77 and 1964/65. The effects on Spring are much less clear. However, the reanalysis charts and data of the Springs directly before the solar minimum do show some interesting probabilities which go along very nicely with reanalysis charts of other factors on historical Springs to match the methodology we have here for Spring 2018. The overall Spring pattern looks rather blocked with high pressure in the Norwegian Sea from Greenland to Scandinavia. There is a trough to the south of Ireland and the UK. Normally when you'd look at this, you'd think easterly winds. However, the trough maybe a bit too deep and too north for easterly winds to take place. Then again, it's kind of a battle between the zonal westerlies and the easterlies against each other in the kind of setup the reanalysis shows. In terms of the monthly reanalysis charts, this is what they show:

- March; High pressure extends from Iceland down to the southeast of Europe with a trough centred just to the north of Spain. As there is high pressure over to the southeast of Europe all the way back to Iceland, it could only mean southeasterlies which cannot really be defined in March of what they'll bring. The temperature reanalysis shows rather below average temperatures across the board up to the north of Ireland, Scotland is around average close to that high pressure. Quite a bit surprised with the temperature anomalies given the setup, southeasterlies aren't exactly fantastic in March for warmth or cold.

- April; Low pressure builds to the north and west of Ireland and over Scotland with a weak ridge of high pressure to the south of England. Looks like a very typical April month and nothing out of the ordinary. Lots of April showers, rather unsettled, rather mild.

- May; There is a big block of high pressure to the north which extends through Ireland all the way down to the Azores. There is a trough way to the southeast of Europe and way out in the Atlantic. To me, this just looks very settled and warm. However, there are a few Mays in there that aren't exactly the best like May 1995 which was dull and rather unsettled with close to average temperatures for example. May 2008 in comparison was very warm and sunny.

Solar activity is a very mixed picture!

The stratosphere has been behaving very oddly recently with a major sudden stratospheric warming that occurred from the 11th-13th February. This brought record breaking reversed zonal winds dropping down to as low as -30 m/s. This meant that northern blocking was to take place and easterlies would form at some point - as they are now since it's been over 2 weeks since the event occurred. This had split the Polar Vortex into two. This major warming was succeeded by a Canadian Warming which occurred just a week later on the 18th/19th February. The temperatures of this warming were even higher than the sudden stratospheric warming of the previous week leading to again another plunge in zonal wind speeds breaking records again. According to some stratosphere experts, the impacts of the Canadian Warming won't be felt until the second half of March. Today, according to the JMA chart of 30hPa in the stratosphere, another warming event has occurred. This warming was slightly more intense than the major SSW but not the Canadian Warming. This is all incredibly interesting and will only lead to more research on the subject, it doesn't make my job any easier.... the impacts from the Canadian Warming do look likely personally for the second half of March as the ensembles are picking up on a downwards trend of the zonal winds through that period after a recovery around early to mid-month. The effects on this third warming have yet to be seen and we will have to see come closer to the time. Remember that the minimum time for a stratospheric warming to propogate down into the troposphere and have effects on the patterns is around 10 days.

The QBO for Spring 2018 is easterly. This in other words means that a negative NAO will be easier to take place as historically, negative NAO is normally easier with easterly QBO events than westerly QBO events. That's not to say we can't get positive NAO in easterly QBO though just like how it's not to say we can't get negative NAO in westerly QBO. The reanalysis charts of Springs following easterly QBO Winters show very similar results to the above on solar activity I've described. There is one key difference though and that is May which seems like a very poor month with a trough just over us and northern blocking bringing very wet, very cool, very unsettled, dire conditions.

ENSO is expected to go down to neutral during the Spring but it still currently stands within the weak La Nina threshold. Once again, ENSO produces similar results to QBO and solar activity on Spring 2018 historically although more in line with the QBO in regards to May.

It seems there is quite an agreement among the methodology for a very mixed Spring here in 2018, March being cold and blocked, April being typically mild and unsettled whilst May being dire OR very settled if you consider solar activity into the equation.

Due to the agreement, I have no chance but to agree with them. This is a far simpler season to forecast than Winter 2017-18 it seems due to less deviation in the methodology. That's not to say, it'll be right though because long range forecasting is very experimental and it's very RNG based for being correct.

To summarise:

March - Cold overall (cool start, cool end with a "milder" interlude mid-month) with perhaps rather dry and dull conditions.
April - Rather mild, close to average sunshine and unsettled.
May - Very wet and cool.

Like with May 2017 when I had a very similar prediction to May 2018 here, I hope I'm wrong about May! I hope it does not turn out like that, I dread a month like May 2015 again.

Comhrá

SNNUS wrote: »

It's very far off but no harm to have a thread regarding the Weather for the Summer. Hopefully it will not all be in May as usual.

Thich Nhat Hanh

I’m going to count them this year what I’d count as a fine summers day in Dublin. You’re right though 6 or 7 is max usually.

Gonzo

If we get 6 or 7 days of blues skies and temps of 20C+ between late May and early September then that will do. Some year's we struggle to even get that. If those sunny days end up being Saturday's and Sundays then even better. Really looking forward to having a few decent bbq's over this summer. The first half of Summer 2017 was fairly decent here for bbq'ing but very little opportunities were to be had after the 1st week of July.

sideswipe

Often times the best thing about summer in Ireland is you don't have to fly too far to get summer weather!

Thich Nhat Hanh

I’ve lurked on this forum for years but the deludedness is hilarious.
Summer is the same every year. Lovely calm May and part of April usually, couple of nice days at start of June. Then 14c and blustery and rainy till October, when the wind stops again. It’s the worst of our seasons, the hope kills you.

sryanbruen

I've already posted my early thoughts on both seasons.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Didn't know where to post these so I'll post them here:

These are my 2018 predictions. They are based on previous years' conditions and see if I feel Mother Nature will balance things out like how we've had three consecutive dry Octobers, more than likely it's going to be a wet one next, ENSO and solar activity. Not to mention my optimism in some of it.

January - Cold and wet. Potentially snowy.
February - Mild overall but with a lot of variation. Rather wet and sunny.
March - Cold and rather dull but dry.
April - Cool, wet and rather sunny.
May - Dull, cool and dry. Similar to May 1991 but not nearly as dry.
June - Cold and wet. Dull too.
July - Hot with the chance of thundery downpours. Not all that sunny.
August - Hot again but very sunny and dry.
September - Mild, sunny and dry at first but becoming wet.
October - Cold, very wet and sunny.
November - Close to average sunshine and temperature. Dry also.
December - Cool, rather wet and dull.

Overall, a cold Spring with a very blocked setup which continues into June bringing quite a poor start to the year and Summer before a complete switch around as the Summer becomes back loaded. Mixed Autumn before a coolish start to Winter 2018/19.

I'd like to note the Summer though, it's pretty much what I went for Summer 2017 - and Summer 2017 turned out as a disaster in terms of my forecast. Also, years that end in "8" have a remarkable tendency to be very poor. In fact, there hasn't been a warmer than average Summer (for the CET using the 1981-2010 average) in years ending in "8" since 1878!

Here's my chart of said Summers going back to 1900:

Only one single warmer than average month and that was June 1968.

I'm hoping 2018 will break this long ass streak of said Summers being very poor.

Ken Ring, the infamous New Zealand "forecaster" :P, said for 2018 to be the next good Summer after 2013. As he predicted 2013 right, I want to see how this "theory" of his goes. Other forecasters have said 2019 to be the year with a very warm Summer though and I have been saying for ages that 2018 will be a very awful year in terms of warm weather so I'm kind of contradicting myself here!

Gaoth Laidir

Billcarson wrote: »

A yr ending with an 8 doesn't bode well. 2008,98,88,78..were all poor summers.

Add to that low solar activity ,so a poor summer is likely this year imo.

And also all years beginning with 1*** and 2***...

SNNUS

Billcarson wrote: »

A yr ending with an 8 doesn't bode well. 2008,98,88,78..were all poor summers.

Add to that low solar activity ,so a poor summer is likely this year imo.

2008 sucked in fairness, rained nearly every day.