nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

What are you going to do when the market crashes

BalHouseBuyer

I may be ridiculed for this, but the stock market is going to crash in the second half of 2018.

The market has been performing amazingly for the last 7 years or so.With index funds being at record highs. The fact that the dow jones is 10K above its previous peak before the last crash should be worrying for people.

Many companies are overvalued

Snap 18B valuation on 400M revenue with a 500M loss

Facebook 400B market cap - Revenue 27B

Plenty of other companies such as Amazon, Tesla, and Twitter. They have high market caps, with nothing really to back it up. The only companies that will probably survive a crash are Amazon and FB but with a more realistic valuation.

I currently hold no shares, having sold them off during the year to buy property. I will buy back when the time is right.

So start cashing out now is my advice.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

1world1people

TripleAce wrote: »

would really love if this finally happen, a 25-30% correction would be great and is almost overdue!

It may be a mistake to be waiting for the big 'crash'. I think the world markets are adjusting to a 'New Norm'. The world economies are rebalencing. In 10 years or so, it is generally accepted that China will be the dominant world economy. Currencies are also adjusting, the Yuan will become dominant. Bitcoin is here to stay, but like the Internet, will struggle amid user knowledge and uncertainty and lack or regulation for years until a settled balance comes. Its clear however that the increasing number of Globalised firms and individuals will see see Crypto-currancies as a viable alternative to sovereign currencies or commodities. I expect a few to become dominant and set the path.

In the past generation we have gone through an Electronic revolution that will be equivalent in the eyes of History to the Industrial revolution. We are now moving to a currency and Energy revolution that an increasingly Globalised world will struggle to keep pace with and will open opportunities for Global players to excel. These Global players are more powerful than most sovereign nations at this stage and have taken over the technology pace setting. In the seventies, the space race was played out between Russia and the US. No nation will ever set the standard for technology advancement again. Gltobal players dictate the markets and as long as innovations are occurring, themarkets will deliver.

Its clear to me though that the markets are live and tearing ahead and conventional historic trends are becoming decreasingly important.

Embrace risk to your own tastes, hold 15-20% in cash for buying opportunities, hedge sensibly. This bull is going nowhere soon.

One suggestion, future proof your portfolio. Dump stocks from companies that will suffer through technology advancements.

1world1people

keane2097 wrote: »

AI is obviously going to make corporations more profitable, not less. Otherwise they won't use it.

It depends on how it is used. AI is not a common technology, it is a concept and will be applied as widely as the concept of an App. Each company will develop their own version of it, different platforms for developing it will be used, each new set of graduates will come up with new ways, what we see as AI now will be redundant in 2-3 years. AI being applied to new technology will be outdated soon. A bit like operating systems and PCs. Like softwares, it will also become overused and some of it will be useless.

AI is in its infancy and will become an ever more sophisticated product, but look for companies with an excellent history of producing innovative operating systems or products to take the lead here. but many will fail and fall along the way.

keane2097

1world1people wrote: »

It depends on how it is used. AI is not a common technology, it is a concept and will be applied as widely as the concept of an App. Each company will develop their own version of it, different platforms for developing it will be used, each new set of graduates will come up with new ways, what we see as AI now will be redundant in 2-3 years. AI being applied to new technology will be outdated soon. A bit like operating systems and PCs. Like softwares, it will also become overused and some of it will be useless.

AI is in its infancy and will become an ever more sophisticated product, but look for companies with an excellent history of producing innovative operating systems or products to take the lead here. but many will fail and fall along the way.

I know what AI is, cheers.

1world1people

keane2097 wrote: »

I know what AI is, cheers.

I had to look it up, thought it was a cab company at first...

OwlsZat

How does mortgage approval work with economic downturns. If you are approved before a crash, can that theoretical approval be reneged or would it be?

[Deleted User]

OwlsZat wrote: »

How does mortgage approval work with economic downturns. If you are approved before a crash, can that theoretical approval be reneged or would it be?

Mortgage approvals only last a few months anyway don't they?

OwlsZat

RoboKlopp wrote: »

Mortgage approvals only last a few months anyway don't they?

6 months +
Question was more so within these periods can agreed approval be reneged due to economic downturn.

1world1people

one thing to consider on a mortgage approval, apparently if there is an Online gambling account(paddypower etc), there is little chance of getting approval.

Thargor

1world1people wrote: »

one thing to consider on a mortgage approval, apparently if there is an Online gambling account(paddypower etc), there is little chance of getting approval.

Is that actually true or just an urban legend?

[Deleted User]

Thargor wrote: »

Is that actually true or just an urban legend?

It's true.

Understandably so if there's substantial amounts coming out every month

BrokenArrows

1world1people wrote: »

one thing to consider on a mortgage approval, apparently if there is an Online gambling account(paddypower etc), there is little chance of getting approval.

Not true. Mine account was linked to loads of online gambling sites and I didn't have a problem.

They will take it into account like any other expense.

dubrov

Approval can be reneged upon right up until the final mortgage contracts are signed.

Everything is just an indicative agreement up until then

1world1people

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Not true. Mine account was linked to loads of online gambling sites and I didn't have a problem.

They will take it into account like any other expense.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/red-flags-and-hidden-costs-needtoknow-tips-for-the-firsttime-buyer-applying-for-a-mortgage-36109230.html

I think you need to be careful what advice you give. People applying for a mortgage, especially first time buyers, need to jump through every hoop to make sure they have the best chance. You will not find it ANYWHERE that an online gambling account is OK to have in terms of a credit check. Of course its relative to your wealth and other financial realities, but to say its no problem is, quite frankly, a display of ignorance.

[Deleted User]

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Not true. Mine account was linked to loads of online gambling sites and I didn't have a problem.

They will take it into account like any other expense.

Poor advice.

keane2097

I wasn't even asked about six figures worth of transactions to/from various gambling companies by AIB when getting mortgage approval last year. All the transactions were through AIB accounts.

Your mileage may vary but I strongly suspect that in most cases people blaming €20 to paddy power for being denied a mortgage have other issues with their application.

dickface

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/the-five-financial-mistakes-you-don-t-want-to-make-in-your-30s-1.3406170

Get a house and don’t worry about a pension for now’ was the advice for a 30-something

Great advice in this piece overall:)

Dardania

dickface wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/the-five-financial-mistakes-you-don-t-want-to-make-in-your-30s-1.3406170

Get a house and don’t worry about a pension for now’ was the advice for a 30-something

Great advice in this piece overall:)

Interesting they used a 5% withdrawal rate for the pension

erudec

dubrov wrote: »

Approval can be reneged upon right up until the final mortgage contracts are signed.

Everything is just an indicative agreement up until then

What exactly does it mean to say "documents are signed"? There's a months long waiting list at the land registry so you could be in the house four months before the bank has received the deeds. Does that mean that they could renege after you'd made three payments but the bank hadn't got the deeds?

I would hope not. I think such a decision would be overturned.

ZeroThreat

BalHouseBuyer wrote: »

I may be ridiculed for this, but the stock market is going to crash in the second half of 2018.

The market has been performing amazingly for the last 7 years or so.With index funds being at record highs. The fact that the dow jones is 10K above its previous peak before the last crash should be worrying for people.

Many companies are overvalued

Snap 18B valuation on 400M revenue with a 500M loss

Facebook 400B market cap - Revenue 27B

Plenty of other companies such as Amazon, Tesla, and Twitter. They have high market caps, with nothing really to back it up. The only companies that will probably survive a crash are Amazon and FB but with a more realistic valuation.

I currently hold no shares, having sold them off during the year to buy property. I will buy back when the time is right.

So start cashing out now is my advice.

best reinvest in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin is probably due another bullrun this year, but don't hold too long

Karpaty

Thargor wrote: »

Is that actually true or just an urban legend?

Only applies if your bank statements show deposits made into those gambling accounts. Even small deposits will trigger questions. I'd recommend using pre-paid debit/credit cards, such as Revolut or PaddyPower's own debit card if you like an occasional Cheltenham/World Cup punt, but thinking buying

bohsman

Karpaty wrote: »

Thargor wrote: »

Is that actually true or just an urban legend?

Only applies if your bank statements show deposits made into those gambling accounts. Even small deposits will trigger questions. I'd recommend using pre-paid debit/credit cards, such as Revolut or PaddyPower's own debit card if you like an occasional Cheltenham/World Cup punt, but thinking buying

I applied for a credit card recently and my bank asked to see all revolut statements for the last year before declining. Not based in Ireland though.

Karpaty

bohsman wrote: »

I applied for a credit card recently and my bank asked to see all revolut statements for the last year before declining. Not based in Ireland though.

Guess it was always a matter of time before bank's caught up on Revolut, N26, etc. PaddyPower debit card still remains a solid option, with the ability to top up the card in the shop and use it to deposit/withdraw from your online accounts.

sorollo

Deub wrote: »

I will buy plenty of Lyxor ETF BX4

How will you benefit from this ETF?

sorollo

I think a lot of old reliables are good value at the moment.
For example companies whose products we buy every day:

nestle
Danone
Unilever
Reckitt benkiser
BAT

I think Microsoft and Amazon are well situated for the future especially with their cloud business.

Also SAP can be considered here.

I think McDonalds and Walt Disney will also be worth it's in 100 years.
Buy and hold.

Not sure about coca cola (sugar tax etc)

We are all getting older therefore pharma also good stock to buy and hold:

Novartis is good value.

nuac

sorollo wrote: »

I think a lot of old reliables are good value at the moment.
For example companies whose products we buy every day:

nestle
Danone
Unilever
Reckitt benkiser
BAT

I think Microsoft and Amazon are well situated for the future especially with their cloud business.

Also SAP can be considered here.

I think McDonalds and Walt Disney will also be worth it's in 100 years.
Buy and hold.

Not sure about coca cola (sugar tax etc)

We are all getting older therefore pharma also good stock to buy and hold:

Novartis is good value.

Agree on the pharma.

BAT - fewer people smoking

Dardania

nuac wrote: »

sorollo wrote: »

I think a lot of old reliables are good value at the moment.
For example companies whose products we buy every day:

nestle
Danone
Unilever
Reckitt benkiser
BAT

I think Microsoft and Amazon are well situated for the future especially with their cloud business.

Also SAP can be considered here.

I think McDonalds and Walt Disney will also be worth it's in 100 years.
Buy and hold.

Not sure about coca cola (sugar tax etc)

We are all getting older therefore pharma also good stock to buy and hold:

Novartis is good value.

Agree on the pharma.

BAT - fewer people smoking

In the west. They're just trying to get emerging markets hooked.

Deub

sorollo wrote: »

How will you benefit from this ETF?

It is a double short of the French CAC40. If you use it wisely, you can cover your share loss during crisis and even make profit.

erudec

Didn't precious metals spike really high during the last market crash?

Wouldn't that be the obvious position to hedge against a market crash of significant effect?

If you are confident that the stock market will implode in X number of years, can't you go to the options market and purchase a document that locks in a vendor to provide a fixed amount at something close to today's price.

If the world goes to hell in a handbasket between now and the expiry date, the expected value of the document will go from zero to huge.

Unless there's something I misunderstood, of course!

erudec

syntheticjunk wrote: »

When market crashes - I'll short the hell out of it
As volatility at all times low - buy OTM leaps puts.

How much initial investment do you need to do that?

[Deleted User]

Dardania wrote: »

In the west. They're just trying to get emerging markets hooked.

Just curious to know if you're happy to make money out of selling cancer?