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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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bnt

Meteociel's snow forecast has it moving from the east and hitting Ireland late next week, with up to 5cm in the Wicklow area:

PS those figures for central UK look alarming. It's lambing season in Yorkshire, Cumbria etc.

BLIZZARD7

Incredible snowstorm in FI- 24 hours of heavy dry snow for the east coast, uppers of -10 to -13c - insane! Then followed up by streamers, precip charts have more than 36 hours of continuous Snow in some parts of the east in -12c uppers...

gfs-0-216.png?6

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

06z GFS turns very snowy after starting off the week dry enough -

This is an amazing run. Prolonged and imminent severe cold about to push in from the looks of things.

gfs-1-216.png?6

BLIZZARD7

06z GFS turns very snowy after starting off the week dry enough -

gfs-0-210.png?6

BLIZZARD7

Some uncertainty on how close the high will be to us early in the week - pretty good consistency across the models this morning though.

GEM has the extreme option nicely lined up for day 7 - huge pool of sub -20c 850s over Northern europe.

gem-0-168.png?00

BLIZZARD7

That ICON run is a nice upgrade - colder air on a higher trajectory coming in from europe, severe week incoming.

gabeeg

The ICON is looking good for a chance at a snowy Monday morning in Dublin

nacho libre

Someone mentioned dewpoints earlier. They are just about on the right side of marginal:D

sparrowcar

nacho libre wrote: »

Incredible to see the jet stream behaving like this!

I imagine transatlantic airlines will be running out of sick bags.. decent bit of turbulence while passing at a 90 degree angle through that.

nacho libre

Incredible to see the jet stream behaving like this!

sdanseo

MJohnston wrote: »

ARPEGE 12Z is disappointingly disagreeable, only it and the GEM not onboard:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=114&size=0

The 0Z GEM was on board to an extent and both it and the 12Z show the cold mass behind so more of a delay than a downgrade.

ARPEGE only goes to +114 and shows 7am Sunday -2 uppers in the North Sea with much deeper cold behind (click on Allemagne/Germany to see further east).

Darwin

Idea stolen shamelessly from netweather...the beast from the east cometh:

dacogawa

That will do!

ECM0-192.GIF?20-0

dacogawa

Not bad for lunchtime Monday from the ECM run

ECM0-144.GIF?20-0

nacho libre

. Wrong thread.

MJohnston

ARPEGE 12Z is disappointingly disagreeable, only it and the GEM not onboard:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=114&size=0

Rebelbrowser

Villain wrote: »

GFS 12z delays it a little but still looks good!

Yup. All the models now agree the cold air hits us during Monday. Model agreement is very encouraging (and what you'd expect at this range too for any other weather event)

gfs-1-162.png?12?12

Villain

GFS 12z delays it a little but still looks good!

Rebelbrowser

And UKMO good!

UW144-7.GIF?20-17

gabeeg

Yep, and the GFS looks to be on track too

gfs-0-102.png?12

Rebelbrowser

One more model test passed. See Icon (I know) below...

lucernarian

If the high doesn't sink over us :pac:

KingdomRushed

lucernarian wrote: »

This one has me a little nervy. It's only slightly synoptically different from the others but we're lacking the lower pressure and unstable flow that 2010 had. I've seen snow trains going at 1020 and 1025 hPa but hitting 1035 hPa would leave us with bitter cold and not much else.

Thoughts?

The chart shown is for Monday, the pressure is dropping at that stage across all models. The real thickness is coming soon after.

lucernarian

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Dublin had rain pop up a few weeks back with presure over 1035
Pressure drops off a little later that Monday as well, looks very snowy for the rest of the week.

Isn't that the exception that proves the norm?

I still expect it to snow as things stand, but the pressure makes much of the difference between snizzle and thundersnow.

Could anyone give an insight into what sort of signals we should be looking for to track the evolution of the high (and whether it'll be further north or south than currently progged)? 2010 started out as a different kind of beast and with the Greenland High being so strong back then, nothing could have gone wrong barring the fickle sea-effect snow.

Reckless Abandonment

lucernarian wrote: »

This one has me a little nervy. It's only slightly synoptically different from the others but we're lacking the lower pressure and unstable flow that 2010 had. I've seen snow trains going at 1020 and 1025 hPa but hitting 1035 hPa would leave us with bitter cold and not much else.

Thoughts?

Dublin had rain pop up a few weeks back with presure over 1035
Pressure drops off a little later that Monday as well, looks very snowy for the rest of the week.

lucernarian

This one has me a little nervy. It's only slightly synoptically different from the others but we're lacking the lower pressure and unstable flow that 2010 had. I've seen snow trains going at 1020 and 1025 hPa but hitting 1035 hPa would leave us with bitter cold and not much else.

Thoughts?

gabeeg

GFS brings a second blast from the East a week after the initial one.

This would be a bit too much

gfs-1-312.png?6

pad199207

Towards the end of the run, its just relentless. All a bit mad really!

Donegal Storm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Remember the finger of green or yellow usually seen in these spells up through Britain and Ireland?
I’ve found it
That’s the Canadian coast immediately to its left btw

Edit Grrrrr 1Mb file size limit so no attachment :mad:

But as regards where the mild finger is gone

imgbb.com does the trick, just upload the image there then copy the link they give you

Cantona's Collars

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Remember the finger of green or yellow usually seen in these spells up through Britain and Ireland?
I’ve found it
That’s the Canadian coast immediately to its left btw

Edit Grrrrr 1Mb file size limit so no attachment :mad:

But as regards where the mild finger is gone

Can you upload the images to a hosting site and post the link? It might solve the problems of file size.