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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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patneve2

Another biblical gfs run. We would be plastered by snow showers in the east if it came to fruition. Only problem its all in FI

BLIZZARD7

One thing that is noteworthy is the amount of times the extreme cold/snowy option has appeared on op runs, it hasn't just been one or two every few days - I count atleast 4 in the last 24 hours or so and that's just on the GFS/ECM. The GEM/ICON etc has also gone for the severe route a lot of the time.

That GFS 06z run would rival December 2010 in terms of snow depths anyway - A really extreme depth of cold too.

Anyway back to reality - it would be nice to see some cohesion between the models in the next day or two around the extreme option. It appears to be very much on the table.

We have some agreement on an easterly for next week now across the models, how cold it will be is anyone's guess at the moment. - Stick to +96hrs for some semblance of consistency.

The SSW has caused some really woeful inter-run performance between almost all the models in the last few days, The ICON had been the most consistent in my opinion.

Iancar29

A definite historic SSW event.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/964857698444632064

patneve2

Last one, just nicked it from another weather forum. Have to enjoy these charts before they disappear

attachment.php?attachmentid=479936&d=1518876994

pad199207

If the same charts are still showing by tomorrow evenings 12z, I will be won over! Latest runs are phenomenal.

sryanbruen

UKMO has easterly by later Wednesday/Thursday and rather cool conditions.

sryanbruen

Here comes the beast on the GFS 12z. Very similar to the GFS 06z!

sryanbruen

Snow event on the 27th (would be a great call back to the blizzard delivered to the east on Tuesday, February 27 2001) then it all goes haywire with a VERY messy picture and milder conditions taking over on the GFS 12z. Could be ten times worse though!

BLIZZARD7

ECM a slight improvement up to +144hrs compared to 00z Run I think, UKMO is solid at 120/144. GFS a variation on a theme, ICON/GEM not as good.

NAGDEFI

Day 9 ECM 12z all those lovely deep shades moving towards us:)

Apologies..wrong thread..

BLIZZARD7

Beast incoming again on the ECM - it takes its time getting here though, I would like to see the cold uppers arriving at +168hrs at the stage, not 200hrs +... Hopefully things sharpen up in the next few runs.

-12's in again at the end -

Elmer Blooker

Fantastic!

ECM1-240.GIF?17-0

Rebelbrowser

But day 10 again on the ECM......

nacho libre

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

But day 10 again on the ECM......

If it's at day 10 in 10 days time then we can give up. The effects of the ssw was always scheduled to be within 10-14 days after it happening. What I find strange is the GFS so quickly bringing back milder weather. Is it being too progessive? Still we should worry about the snowy cold actually coming to fruition before worrying about any breakdown:D

M.T. Cranium

It all appears to depend on how much surface pressure building occurs around 72 to 120 hours northeast of Murmansk from a q.s. high (1038 mbs currently) just over on the Alaskan side of the north pole. It's not that far from Franz Josef Land despite being at the nearly opposite longitude of 160W. The 12z ECM allows this to drain out into northern Europe and the arctic high continues to build. The other models that have backed off today show only small amounts of transfer and not into such a good spot either, more like north-central Russia where the higher pressure can drain southwest into places like Ukraine or central Europe.

I guess this is just a proxy for the model's handling of the SW event. Almost every notable February cold spell in the time since maps became available (1851 now) shows high pressure of the 1035 to 1050 mb range in northern Norway and Sweden, fewer cases involve any kind of stand-alone high in western Europe, a northerly, or high pressure in Germany although you can get some degree of cold from any of those too.

I am somewhat encouraged by the fact that the ECM is now the coldest solution, when it was the GEM you had to think, meh it's the GEM.

BLIZZARD7

18z GFS is a lovely run - Into the freezer we go

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Serious Easterly, sub -12c 850 temps across the country -

gfs-0-204.png?18

M.T. Cranium

I'm loadin up the pick-up truck with bags of Alaskan de-icer, look for me on your street around 26th.

JCX BXC

Just took a look at the GFS, wow is all I can say. The seemingly unupgradable was upgraded. Still 8 days out but wow.

Just for measure

M.T. Cranium

Shows blizzard potential between 26th and 1st of March, with that depth of cold air pouring in on a fairly tight easterly gradient. Honestly, it should be illegal to show us these maps without a guarantee.

(not that I have any trouble getting snow here, 5 cms on the ground since I posted an hour ago)

Was just thinking, there will no doubt be a dedicated thread soon if this model consensus gets stronger, let's say nobody jump the gun, need ECM and GFS at a minimum to agree within 120 hours for -8 uppers to reach Ireland? Then we could start one up.

BLIZZARD7

probably the most outrageous run I've ever seen - Repeated blizzards in likely record breaking cold, Something better come of these ridiculous charts...

gfs-0-264.png?18

Cantona's Collars

JCX BXC wrote: »

Just took a look at the GFS, wow is all I can say. The seemingly unupgradable was upgraded. Still 8 days out but wow.

Just for measure

The Cork snowshield still holding strong though.:)

Rougies

The trend is becoming our friend. The next 48hrs of model watching will be interesting to say the least. I expect some hairy moments but I'm starting to believe we'll get there this time

pistolpetes11

Oh please start it

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shows blizzard potential between 26th and 1st of March, with that depth of cold air pouring in on a fairly tight easterly gradient. Honestly, it should be illegal to show us these maps without a guarantee.

(not that I have any trouble getting snow here, 5 cms on the ground since I posted an hour ago)

Was just thinking, there will no doubt be a dedicated thread soon if this model consensus gets stronger, let's say nobody jump the gun, need ECM and GFS at a minimum to agree within 120 hours for -8 uppers to reach Ireland? Then we could start one up.

Rougies

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Shows blizzard potential between 26th and 1st of March, with that depth of cold air pouring in on a fairly tight easterly gradient. Honestly, it should be illegal to show us these maps without a guarantee.

(not that I have any trouble getting snow here, 5 cms on the ground since I posted an hour ago)

Was just thinking, there will no doubt be a dedicated thread soon if this model consensus gets stronger, let's say nobody jump the gun, need ECM and GFS at a minimum to agree within 120 hours for -8 uppers to reach Ireland? Then we could start one up.

Sounds reasonable, but make it 144 hrs if UKMO is on board too :pac:.

JCX BXC

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Oh please start it

Perhaps start it with the caveat of "Model Watching"?

Kermit.de.frog

You could have an "evolution thread" and then closer the time an actual forecast thread.

Anyone starting a forecast thread at this stage would need insurance for their reputation.

JCX BXC

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone starting a forecast thread at this stage would need insurance for their reputation.

I'd be willing

Probably best to leave it a day at least however to ensure it's not a phantom run and we're all not just getting too excited.

spoonerhead

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Fantastic!

Woah, never seen a chart like that on my birthday. Safe to say, it’d be the best present if it became reality

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

probably the most outrageous run I've ever seen - Repeated blizzards in likely record breaking cold, Something better come of these ridiculous charts...

Merciful hour
That’s day after tomorrow howling blizzard at the Scottish science station hand me the biscuits while we drink the tea stuff :eek:

M.T. Cranium

(quote)
That’s day after tomorrow howling blizzard at the Scottish science station hand me the
biscuits while we drink the tea stuff :eek
(unquote)

stand by for an address from Clement Attlee?