FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

beefburrito wrote: »

Looks like Clare's in for a freeze....

I’ve zoomed that in for you and jcx,so you can get the advance order thermal underwear orders in

beefburrito

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Easterly setting in at day 5 on the ECM this evening, by next weekend we have -11/-12c 850 temps over the country -

Looks like Clare's in for a freeze....

Easterly setting in at day 5 on the ECM this evening, by next weekend we have -11/-12c 850 temps over the country -

JCX BXC

Nice Clare shaped hole in this far out - to be taken with a pinch of salt - chart.

JCX BXC

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS churning out one of the craziest runs I have ever seen cold-wise.

Agreed, however taking a little while to get there. Still markably different to the 06z and models starting to agree on cold. Very quickly too!

GFS goes from a gradually cooling South easterly to developing one huge block to our north with a real beast coming in from Russia- It then follows this up with the high going for full retrogression into greenland and a biting North easterly - Stunning synoptics -

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

patneve2

GFS churning out one of the craziest runs I have ever seen cold-wise.

UKMO an improvement but goes south after +120hrs, not great.

The GEM is fantastic at +120hrs on the other hand, FI @96hrs at the very latest.

gem-0-120.png?12

Edit : That GEM run shows just how good it can get if everything goes right early on -

gem-0-168.png?12

And a much improved UKMO too.

We're getting there

Enough noticible improvement from early in the GFS 12z to show me we are still very much in the game...

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

First of the 12z madness, the ICON is much better than it's 00z run -

typhoony

the charts look about right to me, the modern winter for us, decent amplication but we are the sandwich in the middle with colder air digging east and west, but we miss out on it. usually we get quite pleasant benign weather, rather overcast and dull at times.

Elmer Blooker

The ECM cheered me up this morning ............. until I had a look at the UKMO which is crap!
They are so different at +144 it really made me wonder if weather forecasting has advanced that much in the last 30 years with all the technology now available. Just my 2 cents worth this morning.

We'll probably end up with something like this - a no-mans land of nothingness with a mid lat high.
I think it will take the next Ice Age to get high latitude blocking ... either that or an asteroid impact. But on second thoughts the PV would probably survive an asteroid impact!

gfs-0-180.png?6

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!

It’s actually on this run at day 5!

Historically once an 80’s easterly got going,it took 4 or 5 days to pull proper cold from it into Ireland
So I’m more interested in the getting to this easterly than what’s at day 10
I’ve no time at all for looking at FI in models and comparing how that output verifies
They all have their faults
Just because the ecm is more often right about mild than cold is no reason to diss it
If you want the ecm or any model to show more cold for you more often move to Russia
Anyway long night here in the maternity ward,I’m tired so nap time

Rebelbrowser

gabeeg wrote: »

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!

Snowbiee21

gabeeg wrote: »

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

Very annoying tbh , we can’t see the get any model support whatsoever when the ecm goes good it seems to be on it’s own

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage

Here’s the day 10 850 temps
-12’s reaching Ireland
In that kind of air pressure with that air flow,shower fetch would fa our south wexford Waterford and Cork with fairly hefty thundery snow showers blowing in there with absolutely no marginality whatsoever
Snow would settle and stay all day

Three caveats,it’s FI,there’s no model support this morning at all for this and post 96hrs upon which rock this route for cold either sinks the ship or sails her on into the ice,nothing is resolved with any confidence yet

KingdomRushed

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Wow
Day 9 on this mornings ecm

Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage

Wow
Day 9 on this mornings ecm

I assume he's talking about this

pistolpetes11

pad199207 wrote: »

That 18z though.....

Please post charts or discussion of them

pad199207

That 18z though.....

NAGDEFI

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm a bloody genius

It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.

The beast is up there with Nessie, the Yeti, and the Dodo these years

gabeeg wrote: »

I was a bloody fool

I'm a bloody genius

It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

Erratic is not the word for it

Snowbiee21

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

Typical !