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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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BLIZZARD7

Enough noticible improvement from early in the GFS 12z to show me we are still very much in the game...

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

gabeeg

And a much improved UKMO too.

We're getting there

BLIZZARD7

UKMO an improvement but goes south after +120hrs, not great.

The GEM is fantastic at +120hrs on the other hand, FI @96hrs at the very latest.

gem-0-120.png?12

Edit : That GEM run shows just how good it can get if everything goes right early on -

gem-0-168.png?12

patneve2

GFS churning out one of the craziest runs I have ever seen cold-wise.

BLIZZARD7

GFS goes from a gradually cooling South easterly to developing one huge block to our north with a real beast coming in from Russia- It then follows this up with the high going for full retrogression into greenland and a biting North easterly - Stunning synoptics -

gfsnh-0-264.png?12

JCX BXC

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS churning out one of the craziest runs I have ever seen cold-wise.

Agreed, however taking a little while to get there. Still markably different to the 06z and models starting to agree on cold. Very quickly too!

JCX BXC

Nice Clare shaped hole in this far out - to be taken with a pinch of salt - chart.

BLIZZARD7

Easterly setting in at day 5 on the ECM this evening, by next weekend we have -11/-12c 850 temps over the country -

beefburrito

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Easterly setting in at day 5 on the ECM this evening, by next weekend we have -11/-12c 850 temps over the country -

Looks like Clare's in for a freeze....

George Sunsnow

beefburrito wrote: »

Looks like Clare's in for a freeze....

I’ve zoomed that in for you and jcx,so you can get the advance order thermal underwear orders in

BLIZZARD7

Day 10- absolutely locked into the freezer, sub -11c uppers, -15c into England and heavy snow showers piling into the east, I want this at +48 hours in 8 days please @ECM. No more funny business

Theres also a pool of sub -20c upper Air lurking to our east over Germany... insane

gabeeg

If it plays out like the ECM is showing, day 12 to 18+ would be unimaginably brutal

George Sunsnow

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Day 10- absolutely locked into the freezer, sub -11c uppers, -15c into England and heavy snow showers piling into the east, I want this at +48 hours in 8 days please @ECM. No more funny business

Theres also a pool of sub -20c upper Air lurking to our east over Germany... insane

That’s a northeasterly! So not advecting from Germany more like Denmark
Couldn’t complain though as it’s got max fetch from the Irish Sea into Wicklow and Wexford with what -10 or -11 uppers and dee dewpoints a lot of snow in that

Meteorite58

That is some tease for sure.

wEL2WvM.gif?1

M.T. Cranium

This all looks very promising with most models having some kind of severe cold outbreak in the time frame of 6 to 12 days. It appears that the first part of this set-up will be high pressure drifting across the north polar region from well north of Alaska and developing a separate centre somewhere near Novaya Zemlya, then all depends on how strong that high becomes to promote easterly flow into Scandinavia and secondary high building over the Norway to Iceland region.

Still some chance of this misfiring altogether so don't sell the ranch yet.

Meteorite58

Will be interesting to see if the cold from the East comes to pass.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/964582828016132097

https://twitter.com/weerenradar/status/964532066728673283

https://twitter.com/wxcharts/status/964401047748816896

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/964538101354950656

JCX BXC

Not to spam, but the GEM is a thing of beauty 9 days out

Donegal Storm

Still a full week before any real cold is forecast to reach our shores, last weekend it was supposed to reach us this weekend. The synoptics that get things going are looking more promising this time around but with every passing day the sun is getting stronger. I'm still hopeful but just praying we don't end up with a repeat of 2013 where things only kick off in March and it delays spring by a month

Periscal

18z ICON looks very decent,loving the Gulf of Genoa low,preventing the high from sinking.

BLIZZARD7

mickger844posts wrote: »

Been in the game too long to get excited about charts at 120h or later but i do feel its different this time. SSW is such a huge factor and probably will be the deciding factor when everything pans out.

And right you are, +96hrs is the key timeframe for the first wave of cold on that ECM run though, once that's set in motion it's just a waiting game... The whole later extreme burst requires a bit more to go right for us. UKMO and GFS not quite as good at this point though.

If this cold spell comes off anything like the ECM run this evening - The ICON model will be getting a lot more of my attention. It's been very consistent.

pistolpetes11

I am going to remove anything that is not related to FI Charts , Model or discussion surrounding them , please keep it on topic , the winter thread is perfect for General Chit Chat , this is the last warning on this , off topic posts will just be removed going forward

JCX BXC

18Z GFS not particularly amazing, wont post any charts as its not worth it. Long battle between southerlies and easterlies with the latter eventually winning and cool air plunging in.

M.T. Cranium

ECM lost it for the time being, GFS and especially the GEM bringing it along ... clarity is days away though.

sryanbruen

I think somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning :rolleyes:. Easterly in by mid to late next week on the GFS 06z but cold doesn't get going 'til well into FI..... as some have been saying, an all familiar theme. When it does get going, it's record breakingly cold.

JCX BXC

It's moved it closer than it was in the 18Z last night anyway!

sryanbruen

Absolute blizzard for England on the GFS 06z for March 1st.

Then comes the northeasterlies.

Just for fun.

JCX BXC

Not looking too bad for Ireland either.

sryanbruen

It seems there's some support in the GFS 06z ensembles for that very cold OP run, it's not all on its own unlike last night. Still a large cluster on the mild side.

Dublin GFS 06z ensembles upper air temperatures.

Kermit.de.frog

sryanbruen wrote: »

Needs more -20

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Needs more -20

Some rain, hail and sleet showers along eastern coasts likely if that verified