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Cindicator (CND) - Setting up an using the trading Bot.

BrokenArrows

So as i mentioned in the Alt thread i had purchased 5k CND tokens to give me access to the Cindicator Bot on the Basic Plan see what it has to offer.
Cindicator also offer Trader and Expert Plans which require 200,000 and 700,000 tokens.
They also have product called CryptometerBot which requires 1,000,000 tokens.
Each level offers more frequent indicators and greater detail in the indication.

Starting this thread so that people can follow what the Bot actually does and how the whole process works. Unfortunately im unlikely to be able to review the higher access plans at the moment, but maybe the Basic level will be so good ill be rich in a week!!

So today i got around to setting up the Bot and this first post covers the experience.

The Setup instructions are here https://cindicator.com/Cindicator-bot-reg-manual.pdf or here
https://docs.cindicator.com/cindicator_bot/registration.html

1. You need at least 5000 CND tokens in a private wallet. (NOTE: If like me you had your tokens on Binance you will need more than 5000 tokens in order to transfer the coins onto a private wallet. I bought an extra 100 tokens. Binance charged me 51 tokens to cover the transfer fees to a private wallet) (My public address where you can see the ETH and CND in at my address https://etherscan.io/address/0x73dd317f0fc03ce9962cc29b2205d64fc3703ea6)

2. You need a small amount of ETH in that private wallet to perform a validation transaction by sending a 0 value transaction to yourself with a 6 character code in the Data field. You just need enough ETH to cover the transaction fees. It cost me 0.000866576 Ether but it will vary for you depending on the cost at the time you perform the setup. (validation Transaction: https://etherscan.io/tx/0x09f7c3bec852500cf4897c7f4d234825816366d1fd26deb069bef158338ed618)

3. The Bot is accessed via a 3rd party chat application called Telegram. It has and Android, iOS and Desktop apps. Its a similar interface to Whatsapp.

----

So now that i have access my first impression is that the setup is overly complicated. But i dont have any ideas on how they can improve it because they need to validate that you own the tokens in the wallet.

Now its a waiting game to see what kind of Indicators they can give me at the beginner level.

Its against their T&C to share the indicators so ill be sharing them but replacing the company/coin names with fake ones so that people can see the type of information that is being given out.

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Dades

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BrokenArrows

Still no indicators. I'll just have to be paitent.

Apparently there is on average 1 indicator per week for the Basic 5k token access.

There is also an additional "Community Choice" indicator which comes every Monday. This is where the users vote for which asset they want information about. The token holders of 5k+ will then receive a price level indicator for this asset.

BrokenArrows

Ok so the Community Choice poll has been published.
We had a choice from 5 cryptos. The one with the most votes will receive an indicator on Monday.

This is what it looked like in the Telegram app.
NOTE: Ive covered up the crypto names because it is against T&C and can get my account banned if i share.

makeorbrake

So this thing gives you a buy or sell recommendation??

BrokenArrows

makeorbrake wrote: »

So this thing gives you a buy or sell recommendation??

It will give an indicator like this:

or this

Above images received from the medium article below.

https://medium.com/@Cindicator/cindicator-bot-december-summary-a712040f5f24

It tells you the question that was asked of the community and the bot.
The "Community Question" will get support/resistance levels and the standard Basic indicator will get the % value answer to the question.

The higher levels above Basic will always get the support/resistance values, but basic only gets them for the community question.

It doesnt directly tell you to buy or sell, but gives you information to help you make your own choice.

makeorbrake

So how does this differ from all the technical analyses that are offered from different sources on an ongoing basis? I don't understand it for a second but many believe such analyses are worthless in the stock world - let alone in predicting crypto price moves??

BrokenArrows

makeorbrake wrote: »

So how does this differ from all the technical analyses that are offered from different sources on an ongoing basis? I don't understand it for a second but many believe such analyses are worthless in the stock world - let alone in predicting crypto price moves??

Cindicator have a free mobile app where thousands of users make their predictions on questions asked of them. Questions like the ones shown in my previous post. People who have more correct answers than wrong answers are rewarded with ETH and/or $ on a monthly basis. So there is incentive to put some thought into their answers as you get penalised for incorrect answers.

The Cindicator Bot then apparently does some analyzing of the results submitted by these users and generates an outcome. What sort of analyzing you ask? Ive no idea as this is hidden technology and have to just trust that they are doing something useful.

Apparently its advertised that 72.41% of indications up to December 31st 2017 were correct. I had a published document that showed all the questions and their results but i cant seem to find it now. Its also mentioned in the medium.com link i had in my previous post.

So their advertised tag line is "77,000+ decentralized financial analysts enhanced by artificial intelligence"

The 77k analysts are the users of the free app who answer the questions to compete for the financial reward each month, and the Artificial Intelligence being the processing they do of these answers.

makeorbrake

Ok, thanks for the info. I'm not necessarily knocking it - just a natural sceptic. Let us know how it goes for you. :-)

BrokenArrows

makeorbrake wrote: »

Ok, thanks for the info. I'm not necessarily knocking it - just a natural sceptic. Let us know how it goes for you. :-)

Ya I've no idea if its worth it or not. Only time will tell.

I would love to see some raw data of the answer result before and after their AI does anything.

Because we don't have access to see whats happening they would just as easily be spitting out the average community answer. Even if this is the case statistics show that crowd sourced answers for questions like this are generally pretty accurate. Especially in these cases what you get is market sentiment which is really what drives a lot of prices.

Regardless, if they manage to maintain a 70%+ accuracy rating of predictions. That's pretty good.

And if they actually have a good and functioning AI which is learning the patterns then these predictions should only get more accurate.

The company was founded in 2015 and developed their first iteration of their mobile app in the same year. So they have been receiving user answers since the end of 2015 which i assume they have been using to build their AI models.

Its been openly trading since October 2017 so I assume that's when people started actually using the Bot.

Since its only been in active use for less than 4 months its still only a baby and the AI is still learning and being developed.

Assuming in the future we can say for certain that the product works and maintains say 75% accuracy then people will HOLD (not HODL, i hate that. haha). They will hold because it gives them guaranteed access to a valuable resource.

The scarcity of the tokens will then drive up the price.
There is only enough tokens to provide this number of users.

Beginner - 5,000 tokens (Max possible number of users at this level 400,000)
Trader - 200,000 tokens (max possible number of users at this level = 10,000)
Expert - 700,000 tokens (max possible number of users at this level = 2,857)
Cryptometer Bot (its an arbitrage bot) - 1,000,000 tokens (max possible number of users at this level = 2000)

Assuming a number of whales buy in at the top tiers then this takes a large number of tokens off the table.

However Etherscan tells me that 50% of all tokens are currently held by 3 accounts which i assume are exchanges and Cindicators reserved tokens and there are only 15k token holders in total with around 30% below the 5k minimum threshold. So there is currently at most around 10k people using the Bot. More than likely its far far less than that.

h0neybadger

What’s the difference in info provided by an account that’s trader level to the lowest one? Or is it just the resistance levels, while the basic don’t get any info, they only get the questions?

BrokenArrows

h0neybadger wrote: »

What’s the difference in info provided by an account that’s trader level to the lowest one? Or is it just the resistance levels, while the basic don’t get any info, they only get the questions?

It's the resistance levels and frequency of indications.
Basic just gets around 1 a week but the top level will get a few a day.

BrokenArrows

So this morning I got a notification on the question and later I received the result.

Not very specific but gives an idea of what way their system thinks the market is heading.

BrokenArrows

They released the stats for January.
Apparently their accuracy for Jan was 61%. I suppose that's not too bad for during a huge crash.

https://medium.com/@Cindicator/cindicator-bot-january-summary-a1138a26b316

BrokenArrows

2 Indicators today. wasnt expecting that.
Both long term stuff.

There is literally no way to profit from DAI so I really dont see the point in this indication.

lifeandtimes

I've never heard of this thing but I follow a news channel in YouTube called crypto news and all the stuff that have been "indicated" have been discussed and evaluated on their show by an peeson with over 40 years srick experience and 8 years crypto experience and their "opinions" followed.

What separates this from all the people who do YouTube assessments?

banie01

lifeandtimes wrote: »

I've never heard of this thing but I follow a news channel in YouTube called crypto news and all the stuff that have been "indicated" have been discussed and evaluated on their show by an peeson with over 40 years srick experience and 8 years crypto experience and their "opinions" followed.

What separates this from all the people who do YouTube assessments?

From my reading of the A.I aims and the the work on the bots to date, they are aiming to marry analytical A.I with a crowd sourced and verified algorithms.
In general over a sufficiently large sample size the "wisdom of crowds" this can give a remarkably accurate degree of predictiion when a binary option is presented.

This Bot/Crypto seems to be a really interesting approach at marrying 2 recognised predictive strategies.

BrokenArrows

lifeandtimes wrote: »

I've never heard of this thing but I follow a news channel in YouTube called crypto news and all the stuff that have been "indicated" have been discussed and evaluated on their show by an peeson with over 40 years srick experience and 8 years crypto experience and their "opinions" followed.

What separates this from all the people who do YouTube assessments?

Have a read of my other posts in this thread which explains the difference.

BrokenArrows

The community choice question will be released at 8pm today.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Can you tell us how the picks do without revealing the names? threads a little pointless otherwise.

BrokenArrows

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Can you tell us how the picks do without revealing the names? threads a little pointless otherwise.

I will, but if you look at the dates for the ones ive posted none of the dates have passed yet.

smacl

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Regardless, if they manage to maintain a 70%+ accuracy rating of predictions. That's pretty good.

Excuse the ignorance, but what exactly do they mean by 70% accuracy here? What's the baseline and what control group are they measuring against? For example, they might say 70% of recommended picks increase in value more than the mean change in value for the coins under consideration for a given period. Statistically however, on a normal distribution, if I picked coins at random, I'd expect 50% of them to perform above average and the remaining 50% to perform below average so in that context 70% is only 20% improvement on what you'd get with random picks. If it was 70% coins staying green at a time when most of the top 100 coins were red this would be way more impressive, hence the question.

BrokenArrows

smacl wrote: »

Excuse the ignorance, but what exactly do they mean by 70% accuracy here? What's the baseline and what control group are they measuring against? For example, they might say 70% of recommended picks increase in value more than the mean change in value for the coins under consideration for a given period. Statistically however, on a normal distribution, if I picked coins at random, I'd expect 50% of them to perform above average and the remaining 50% to perform below average so in that context 70% is only 20% improvement on what you'd get with random picks. If it was 70% coins staying green at a time when most of the top 100 coins were red this would be way more impressive, hence the question.

An indication question might be "Will BTC trade above 11000 before 1st March?". All the indications have very specific questions to be answered. So there is no baseline to compare against.
They will give an answer as a %. 0-49.99% meaning No but with different levels on certainty, 50.01%-100% meaning Yes but with different levels on certainty. I don't think they give a 50% indication ever.

If they predicted anything above 50% and BTC traded above 11000 then this indication would be recorded as a successful one.

Well they managed around 60% correct indications during the January crash which id expect that to be far better than tossing a coin in the same period.

Are there any records about what percentage the so called crypto market analysts you find online are achieving? Would be an interesting comparison.

If Cindicator manage to be consistently in the 60%+ then id say its a successful system. If you had a system which gave you 60% at blackjack you would be a very wealthy person. Card counting only increases your odds in blackjack my around 2% over guessing.

BrokenArrows

Ive put up a google spreadsheet with the indications. Ill update it as the answers arrive in.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-ut7Av39LedUmOPQxB48_Knna8OcMKblSm-TdgCZZHU/edit?usp=sharing

EDIT: They have also introduced a new tier at 30,000 tokens which is a nice balance between the 5k and 200k.
They also have now clearly defined what each tier is eligible for. https://cindicator.com/cindicator-bot#access

Tinder Surprise

BrokenArrows wrote: »

Ive put up a google spreadsheet with the indications. Ill update it as the answers arrive in.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-ut7Av39LedUmOPQxB48_Knna8OcMKblSm-TdgCZZHU/edit?usp=sharing

EDIT: They have also introduced a new tier at 30,000 tokens which is a nice balance between the 5k and 200k.
They also have now clearly defined what each tier is eligible for. https://cindicator.com/cindicator-bot#access

Thanks man..appreciate the effort

SteelyDanJalapeno

How's this going?