Le March on Murrayfield
I think it's fair to say most spectators would look to England v Wales as the fixture of the weekend but a part of me thinks the stakes are a little higher between Scotland and France.
The Stakes
Scotland are in a world of hurt. The narrative last week was of a Scotland team heading to Cardiff to kick off their tournament with a crucial away win against a Welsh team whose competitiveness was stolen by injuries.
But that story wasn't true and the reality was in fact almost cruel.
"But... that isn't fair..."
"Who says life is fair?" said the Grandpa in the princess bride and just as in that work of fiction so was the fiction that Scotland were favourites heading to Wales last weekend.
The warnings were there in advance. Keith Wood articulated or maybe prophesied that a troubled Scotland would be completely undone by the absence of a competitive front row and he was half right. Scotland were completely undone but it was the absence of competitive halves that caused that early damage.
I commented in the match thread that Ali Price was at the centre of everything wrong with Scotland's performance but on review it was certainly a toss up between Russell and Price for the defeats primary architect.
The end result is that Scotland are
summoning a psychologist to help deal with the fallout. Wales snatched victory from the clutches of pure capitulation and Scotland's lack of trench leaders was laid bare for all and sundry. The acquiescence carved into Gregor "Toonie" Townsends face in the post match conference told it's own story for those who hung around to see it.
"But... that isn't fair..."
This quote perhaps also speaks to France's fortunes. Under pressure from the opening minute and denied possession or opportunity France still found themselves victors with the match complete but for the passing of the ball over the correct white line.
"Who says life is fair..?" said Johnny Sexton.
It would be a mistake to put both losses into anything resembling the same category. 50 minutes separated the point at which France and Scotland eventually threw in the towel in round 1 with France's ultimate defeat coinciding with the blowing of Nigel Owens whistle for the final time.
France will have been left utterly dejected and those fantastic images of broken, bloodied bodies saturating the soil in the Stade de France will galvanise this group of young players if they allow themselves to view an away fixture as something worth fighting for.
The Teams
A mixture of injury, failure to perform and absence of leadership quantify the six changes made by Gregor Townsend ahead of Sundays game. Quoted during the team announcement press conference he said “The responsibility for last week lies with the coaches and myself,” which suggest that they feel they got the tactics wrong. I'd tend to agree but for me the blame lies in the hands of those who took to the pitch.
Injuries dominate the enforced changes to Frances selection. They recall a number of experienced operators in addition to the All Black beating Lionel Beauxis who must be wondering more than anyone how fate has transpired to land him in the French 10 jersey for the first time in six years:
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Pete Horne, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Simon Berghan, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Gordon Reid
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 Jon Welsh, 19 Ben Toolis, 20 David Denton, 21 Ali Price, 22 Chris Harris, 23 Blair Kinghorn
France: 15 Geoffrey Palis, 14 Teddy Thomas, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Geoffrey Doumayrou, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Lionel Beauxis, 9 Maxine Machenaud, 8 Marco Tauleigne, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot
Replacements: 16 Adrien Pelissié, 17 Eddy Ben Arous, 18 Cedate Gomes Sa, 19 Paul Gabrillagues, 20 Louis Picamoles, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Anthony Belleau, 23 Benjamin Fall
Recent results
2017: France won 22-16 in Paris
2016: Scotland won 29-18 in Murrayfield
2015: France won 19-16 in Paris
2015: France won 15-8 in Paris
2014: France won 19-17 at Murrayfield
2013: France won 23-16 in Paris
2012: France won 23-17 at Murrayfield
2011: France won 34-21 in Paris
2010: France won 18-9 at Murrayfield
2009: France won 22-13 in Paris
Round 1 Highlights
Prediction
A poor performance from either team will be massive for their future development. A loss for Scotland lines them up for a competition with Italy for the wooden spoon and a return to the early Cotter days of despair for Scottish fans. It's critical for the entire Scottish project that Scotland win this game.
France on the other hand were impressive, committed and determined last week against the deserved no.3 team in the world and should, and I hope will take heart from that. Still their away form is a significant variable and a win this weekend will put them back in the frame for the tournament but will also announce that there will be no more easy fixtures against Les Blues.
Scotland need to bring the flare, France need to dominate the tight in an obvious reversal of the teams dominant characteristics from a decade ago.
The bookies are marginally favouring Scotland but I'm going to go against the head here and suggest that France will win by more than one score. The future of both teams are on the line and the stakes are as high as they come.
Fortune favours the bold!
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