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Is anyone else starting to become a bit worried? mod note in first post

Autochange

Bear markets
Fud
Regulation
Wall Street manipulation
The supposed tether ticking time bomb

What are your thoughts? Have you cashed out? Have you been buying the dips?

MOD NOTE:
Its good to see healthy debate and discussion taking place and I am sure every supporter of cryptocurrency and blockchain can agree that the contrarian viewpoint is worthwhile reading, if only to act as an anchor and help prevent investors from getting carried away in an echo chamber of "everything is wonderful, just keep going"

However, there have been a few reported posts recently which I did not action as I wanted to see the thread level out itself rather than start forcing viewpoints and I have been in two minds about that decision.

I'm not going to single any posters out but I'm going to ask that all posters read the forum charter and I want to point out that it was established years ago in the Television forum, that dropping in on a forum to tell the followers of that forums topic (in that case a particular tv show) that it was all crap and only idiots watched it etc etc was the exact definition of being a dick and attempting to troll. I know this because I was the mod of the forum at the time. Now look at the forum charter again.

There is pretty much one rule on this forum : if you cannot discuss in a civil manner, and I mean discuss, not soapbox or attack, then you have absolutely no business posting here and I have no qualms about removing your ability to do so.

This forum is for people that have in interest in cryptocurrencies, blockchain and their application to financial investments. that can be positive or negative but if you really feel the need to start pulling out memes / hiding insults in imaginary hashtags / attacking personalities or just generally being a dick there are other forums you can post in where I will let the local mods determine if it is within the scope of allowable behaviour. Here, it is not.

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drunkmonkey

Surprised they let them in the first place. Still it's your credit line, you should be allowed do what you want with it once approved.
I'd say they had massive defaults after the run to 20k, sure the Irish banks have had a few as well.

Now for some good news

Interview With India's Three Largest Crypto-Exchanges: Ban Rumors Are False
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-04/interview-indias-three-largest-crypto-exchanges-ban-rumors-are-false

[Deleted User]

I imagine that the spike of new money in December saw many credit cards in the US maxed out on crypto.

A lot of these new 'investors' will have cashed out in a panic in the last two weeks and at a loss. So essentially they just used credit from the bank to line the pockets of an international third party for a highly speculative and volatile asset. And in a market they knew nothing about.

Yes, the banks will likely get their money back, same way as if these customers maxed out their cards on a holiday, a new car etc. However, at least with those purchases, they are made in a regulated, free market. I'm all for blaming banks when it's necessary, but I can't fault them here for taking precautions against customers pumping the banks' money into a market which can be manipulated with a tweet from John McAfee.

From the point of view of the banks, the people who should be swimming in investment circles or who should be getting heavily into crypto at this stage, are not the kind who need to max out their already strained line of credit.

Reports in the US of regular joes remortgaging their homes to buy into BTC at $19k, students taking out larger student loans than they need for their studies just so that they can buy crypto - "Sure the loan will pay for itself 10 times over in about 5 years! DENT to the moon!" It was all getting a bit feverish, a bit insane, and something needs/needed to be done. Couple that with the frequent manipulation of the market through means which would get people jailed if they tried it on the stock market, regulation from the US government and restrictive measures from the banks is inevitable.

I welcome regulation once it is sensible. Although, when you look at the actions in the past of the likes of former New York Superintendent of Financial Services Benjamin Lawsky* and his quest to regulate crypto in (out of) New York, it's hard to have faith in the regulators.

*Basically he introduced regulations which made it all but impossible for BTC exchanges to operate from New York. Then he left this public position to set up his own private consultation firm called Bitlicence which helped companies find ways around New York's regulations. The very ones he created against the advice of the industry. Today he is on the board of Ripple.

In relation to that last point, I recommend watching 'Banking on Bitcoin' which is currently on Netflix for anyone invested or interested in crypto-currencies.

Autochange

Bob24 wrote: »

Major US banks banning cryptocurrency purchases from their credit card: https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/4/16971666/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-jpmorgan-chase-bank-of-america-citigroup-credit-card

As long as it is just credit cards and not debit cards I understand why they do it: the short term credit facility on a credit card is not meant for buying highly speculative assets. But it is sending a bit of a bad sign for cryptocurrencies.

You can't buy stock with a credit card either. Standard enough.
I would imagine there are a lot of people who have gone all in.
I know a friend of a friend in Canada who has a huge some of cash gone in. His Portfolio was valued at close to 900k cad before Christmas. I wonder what it's at now. He was an early adopter so he might have been 8-10x up .

Bob24

Autochange wrote: »

You can't buy stock with a credit card either. Standard enough.

Yes as I said it makes sense. But nonetheless if all banks in the world start doing that it could apply downwards pressure on crypto as less money is available to purchase the coins.

lifeandtimes

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Got the age right in fairness, chuck. And I’ve nothing but respect for the Chinese lads.

Can no one see the comparison?

lifeandtimes

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes as I said it makes sense. But nonetheless if all banks in the world start doing that it could apply downwards pressure on crypto as less money is available to purchase the coins.

This is where my crypto purchasing store comes in. Walk in and buy crypto with cash,get your paper wallet scanned and boom away you go

lostboy75

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes as I said it makes sense. But nonetheless if all banks in the world start doing that it could apply downwards pressure on crypto as less money is available to purchase the coins.

Not sure I agree here, buying with credit is never going to be a good idea, the one exception is if your just waiting for other funds to clear.
Anyone that is just using credit is going to get caught out at some stage.
That just isn't sensible

[Deleted User]

dubrov wrote: »

Let's say there are 1,000,000 Euros in circulation, then the central bank prints another 1,000,000, if you could have of bought two tins of beans with a Euro, you will now only be able to buy one. There are plenty of other ways the central bank can devalue a currency.

Asset holdings in currencies are just a number. It is what it buys you that in goods/services that matters. That can vary for a lot of reasons.

Yes, I understand why the value of fiat currencies can fluctuate, particularly when a government manipulates the money supply.

I am talking about crypto. As you so rightly point out, "it is what it buys you in goods/services that matters". I am curious about why bitcoin now buys me only 40% of the goods and services it did a little over a month ago. What's the answer?

Bob24

lostboy75 wrote: »

Not sure I agree here, buying with credit is never going to be a good idea, the one exception is if your just waiting for other funds to clear.
Anyone that is just using credit is going to get caught out at some stage.
That just isn't sensible

Oh yeah, I don’t think I ever said anything which disagrees with that though? Using credit to buy highly volatile assets is obviously a bad idea.

Nontheless people buying with credit cards (either because the need credit or because it is faster/easier than bank transfers) are one component (amongst others) which has been pushing-up crypto currencies prices. All I meant to say is that their disappearance would apply downwards pressure on prices (how much, I don’t know).

drunkmonkey

The UK is following the US https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/lloyds-bank-bans-buying-bitcoins-credit-cards

They must have had a lot of defaults or this wouldn't be an issue.

grindle

Deleted User wrote: »

I am curious about why bitcoin now buys me only 40% of the goods and services it did a little over a month ago. What's the answer?

Market sentiment is bearish in comparison to a month ago. Simple answer, not sure why it would confound anybody.
Bitcoin as it stands is a terrible currency.

Bob24

Mr.S wrote: »

Is it just me or is this perfectly reasonable?

Buying crypto on credit seems very foolish in the first place.

I think almost everyone will agree it is reasonable.

Still relevant to anyone who is invested in crypto though and a bit bearish if it all banks follow suit, as with every asset class easy access to credit combined with public excitement can drive up prices a lot and part of that could be going away.

CelticRambler

Deleted User wrote: »

I am talking about crypto. As you so rightly point out, "it is what it buys you in goods/services that matters". I am curious about why bitcoin now buys me only 40% of the goods and services it did a little over a month ago. What's the answer?

I'm in the same age-group as JohnnyFlash, and can sort of see his point of view. Sort of.

Back in the days of our young adulthood, we were told that the most important investment we could make was putting money into a pension. So like a good little employee, I diverted part of my salary every month into a pension plan. Then I got sense! :cool: What I put away twenty years ago is still there and, according to my most recent statement, will provide me with a pension of about 51ct a week, and I'm one of the lucky ones - as several other people of our generation have found out, a pension pot is frequently the one you don't have to p!ss in.

Listening to the advocates for blockchain technology and cryptocurrency reminds me very much of the energy and enthusiasm that was (and still is) used to encourage people to pour their money into a pension black hole.

Now I'm not anti-technology: I had the first website of any company in my sector, back in the 90s, went "interactive" with it in 2000, had my IT guy upgrade our till software to accept Euros in the UK as soon as they came out, and still tease my 22-year old IT grad son that I taught him everything he needed to know about computers ...

And I have a clutch of LTC and ETH on the side too.

But as a currency I don't believe that cryptocoins will be of any more use to me in my dotage than the Euros stuffed in the mattress or the 51ct/week that my pension statement says I'll get if I can hang on another ten years. Probably of no less use either, but "hard" liquid assets will always be the fallback position. In my case, those are trees and potatoes - Regardless of what else happens in the world, I can burn the first and eat the second, and trade them with the neighbours for goods or services that I might need.

My doubts about crypocurrencies are not so much about is intrinsic value (or lack of) but that the distributed computing infrastructure is very vulnerable, and the actual mining is hugely dependent on our ability to generate electricity. One butterfly could create a hell of a storm.

ZeroThreat

Autochange wrote: »

You can't buy stock with a credit card either. Standard enough.
I would imagine there are a lot of people who have gone all in.
I know a friend of a friend in Canada who has a huge some of cash gone in. His Portfolio was valued at close to 900k cad before Christmas. I wonder what it's at now. He was an early adopter so he might have been 8-10x up .

If he was an early adopter with a mixed porftolio he should still be way up on his original investment though.

I've only been in crypto since last Septemter, the middle of Jan, I was probably about 4.5 x original fiat put in. Now I'm a little over double the original investment.

Should probably really take half out at this stage so I'm not in a net loss if it all (as it seems to be) goes to zero.

At the very least, I feel the market will pull back to where it was a year ago.

drunkmonkey

Mr.S wrote: »

Is it just me or is this perfectly reasonable?

Buying crypto on credit seems very foolish in the first place.

You buy shares on the margin in your trading account, same thing really as there's no other way to by crypto on credit.

drunkmonkey

grindle wrote: »

Market sentiment is bearish in comparison to a month ago. Simple answer, not sure why it would confound anybody.
Bitcoin as it stands is a terrible currency.

Why are all of them following the bitcoin it seems to be the US dollar of the crypto wold, Etherum should be doing its own thing but it's not.

Bob24

And now reports of China getting ready to use the great firewall to block access to all crypto exchanges: http://fortune.com/2018/02/05/bitcoin-china-website-ico-block-ban-firewall/

Wheety

I'm sure there are hundreds if not thousands who got caught up in the Bitcoin hype and maxed out credit cards thinking "this is easy money, the price will only keep going up".

Yes the people still owe the money to the banks but how many will default? If they were using credit to gamble, they probably risked a lot of their own money too.

ZeroThreat

Wheety wrote: »

I'm sure there are hundreds if not thousands who got caught up in the Bitcoin hype and maxed out credit cards thinking "this is easy money, the price will only keep going up".

Yes the people still owe the money to the banks but how many will default? If they were using credit to gamble, they probably risked a lot of their own money too.

I'm disappointed seeing much of my gains reduce (and market still in freefall)

But I can't imagine how those who put themselves in debt to invest heavily in crypto at an all time high feel.

drunkmonkey

ZeroThreat wrote: »

If he was an early adopter with a mixed porftolio he should still be way up on his original investment though.

I've only been in crypto since last Septemter, the middle of Jan, I was probably about 4.5 x original fiat put in. Now I'm a little over double the original investment.

Should probably really take half out at this stage so I'm not in a net loss if it all (as it seems to be) goes to zero.

At the very least, I feel the market will pull back to where it was a year ago.

Right now it looks like the safe thing to do it take profit, you can always buy back in when it settles if you want to, maybe look at a few companies reporting earnings over the next 2 weeks and take a punt on them with some proper due dillegnece. Open a Degiro account if you don't have a trading account yet.
You've had a great return over the space of a few months. To make 4 times or even twice your investment is a good trade.

Dades

So is it just Monday or why has everything gone to hell in a handbasket?

Will is get worse when the Americans wake up?

Bob24

ZeroThreat wrote: »

But I can't imagine how those who put themselves in debt to invest heavily in crypto at an all time high feel.

I know I will sound a bit harsh and I do realise there might be broken of very damaged lives involved, but someone who put their house or all their savings / credit line in bitcoin should rightly feel like an idiot (especially if they did so in the past few months). It was a stupid move from the start to go all in or to contract large debts in order to take part in something that risky (not saying everyone buying crypto was stupid of course, how those specific people inversted in it is the issue).

grindle

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Why are all of them following the bitcoin it seems to be the US dollar of the crypto wold, Etherum should be doing its own thing but it's not.

Most bots and traders are using BTC benchmarks for swing trades unfortunately. BTC is the default currency for pairs on exchanges.
If ETH ever takes over from BTC's dominance the same thing will happen as people want to build the largest stack of whatever they consider to be the most valuable asset in the future.

What worries me most in this market is the preoccupation with swing-trading total shítcoins. It's great for the traders making a buck out of it but there are tons of excessively overvalued projects - some can barely be called projects, let's be honest - which are retaining their dumb valuations just so traders can eke out 5% here or there.

seannash

Dades wrote: »

So is it just Monday or why has everything gone to hell in a handbasket?

Will is get worse when the Americans wake up?

Never easy to call it. From what I was seeing the money was leaving the Alts and not really returning. All my "riskier" coins got hammered(PRL,VEN,ICX,DBC,XRB)
I moved everything to Ethereum thinking that if any money is going to come back in its gonna be Bitcoin or Ethereum.

That being said, how much money is out there to absorb these drops and was it simply people converting to bitcoin to get back to fiat that was causing it to rise and fall the past few days?

Hard to know

lifeandtimes

If you don't see that fiat is the walking dead, then you've missed the power of crypto. No matter where crypto settles, it's value will increase. We all know this. Don't let fear make this worse.
Who cares what bottom Bitcoin hits? It will be back in less than a month. Fiat currencies are the water. Cryptocurrencies are the floating objects. Push one down as deep as you want. It will, with certainty, rush back to the top.
One million seconds is about 12 days.
One billion seconds is about 31 years.
That means one trillion seconds is about 31,000 years.
The US government is 20 TRILLION dollars in debt.
The best thing that could happen to the government is a shutdown permanently.
WallStreet is utilising the CME and CBOE to bring an end to this #Bitcoin since it is directly affecting the FederalReserve and threatens the economy.
They might be paid by the banks to short and bring an end to the #decentralised economy.
Let's stand against them.
The decentralised economy doesn't mean we should be controlled by wall street, or government or banks.
We should not be affected by FUD
We should be believing in the true use case of cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 101:
- don't believe FUD, research.
- don't chase FOMO, wait.
- don't be cheap, tip.
- don't get greedy, hold.
- don't sell, ... just don't sell.
- don't be an idiot, buy.
Just like viruses find it easier to infect/spread in people with low immunity, brainwashing is much easier in people with poor emotional control.
Easy to offend = Easy to manipulate
A society that will celebrate being emotional, will always be manipulated by viruses of society. We are in the transition period of ICO garbage money scams into "hopefully" real-world use cases that add value that everyone can be proud of.
If you ask taxi drivers why they hate Uber, its because it hurts their business.
If you ask bankers why they hate bitcoin and cryptocurrency, its also because they threaten their business.
The hatred towards crypto was never about technology/innovation. It's really about fear.
We are in a revolution against the waning power of governments and bankers. Their only weapon is sowing fear. If you give into that fear, then it impedes and delays our inevitable victory. Cryptocurrencies are not crashing. They are bending against the impotent wind of the past.
Banks are scared sh!tless. If they had self-awareness they would rush to hire the best of us to help transform them into something useful in the new order, but their strategic thinking has frozen. They cannot see that fighting crypto is futile. Only cooperation will save them.

dubrov

I think you may have had a little too much sugar on your cornflakes this morning

Wanderer78

lifeandtimes wrote: »

If you don't see that fiat is the walking dead, then you've missed the power of crypto. No matter where crypto settles, it's value will increase. We all know this. Don't let fear make this worse.
Who cares what bottom Bitcoin hits? It will be back in less than a month. Fiat currencies are the water. Cryptocurrencies are the floating objects. Push one down as deep as you want. It will, with certainty, rush back to the top.
One million seconds is about 12 days.
One billion seconds is about 31 years.
That means one trillion seconds is about 31,000 years.
The US government is 20 TRILLION dollars in debt.
The best thing that could happen to the government is a shutdown permanently.
WallStreet is utilising the CME and CBOE to bring an end to this #Bitcoin since it is directly affecting the FederalReserve and threatens the economy.
They might be paid by the banks to short and bring an end to the #decentralised economy.
Let's stand against them.
The decentralised economy doesn't mean we should be controlled by wall street, or government or banks.
We should not be affected by FUD
We should be believing in the true use case of cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 101:
- don't believe FUD, research.
- don't chase FOMO, wait.
- don't be cheap, tip.
- don't get greedy, hold.
- don't sell, ... just don't sell.
- don't be an idiot, buy.
Just like viruses find it easier to infect/spread in people with low immunity, brainwashing is much easier in people with poor emotional control.
Easy to offend = Easy to manipulate
A society that will celebrate being emotional, will always be manipulated by viruses of society. We are in the transition period of ICO garbage money scams into "hopefully" real-world use cases that add value that everyone can be proud of.
If you ask taxi drivers why they hate Uber, its because it hurts their business.
If you ask bankers why they hate bitcoin and cryptocurrency, its also because they threaten their business.
The hatred towards crypto was never about technology/innovation. It's really about fear.
We are in a revolution against the waning power of governments and bankers. Their only weapon is sowing fear. If you give into that fear, then it impedes and delays our inevitable victory. Cryptocurrencies are not crashing. They are bending against the impotent wind of the past.
Banks are scared sh!tless. If they had self-awareness they would rush to hire the best of us to help transform them into something useful in the new order, but their strategic thinking has frozen. They cannot see that fighting crypto is futile. Only cooperation will save them.

thats pretty scary stuff!:rolleyes:

drunkmonkey

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thats pretty scary stuff!:rolleyes:

Not half as scary as my chart is telling me buy don't buy into bitcoin until it hits 1k and then hold.
February is going to be carnage looking at the charts. There was nothing to back up the rise last year the price was only increasing because the price kept increasing.
A major correction is a good thing as it's gone way out control and it's use as a currency is completely lost. If it becomes cheap again and confidence grows it'll be great for crypto in the long term, Bitcoin has done it's job it's woken people up to a new technology. Now everyone wants one. A major correction will make that possible.

Bitcoin at 1k will have everyone interested and if thursday in Lidl is anything to go by we'll all be buying the bitcoin sale.

JohnnyFlash

lifeandtimes wrote: »

If you don't see that fiat is the walking dead, then you've missed the power of crypto. No matter where crypto settles, it's value will increase. We all know this. Don't let fear make this worse.
Who cares what bottom Bitcoin hits? It will be back in less than a month. Fiat currencies are the water. Cryptocurrencies are the floating objects. Push one down as deep as you want. It will, with certainty, rush back to the top.
One million seconds is about 12 days.
One billion seconds is about 31 years.
That means one trillion seconds is about 31,000 years.
The US government is 20 TRILLION dollars in debt.
The best thing that could happen to the government is a shutdown permanently.
WallStreet is utilising the CME and CBOE to bring an end to this #Bitcoin since it is directly affecting the FederalReserve and threatens the economy.
They might be paid by the banks to short and bring an end to the #decentralised economy.
Let's stand against them.
The decentralised economy doesn't mean we should be controlled by wall street, or government or banks.
We should not be affected by FUD
We should be believing in the true use case of cryptocurrency
Bitcoin 101:
- don't believe FUD, research.
- don't chase FOMO, wait.
- don't be cheap, tip.
- don't get greedy, hold.
- don't sell, ... just don't sell.
- don't be an idiot, buy.
Just like viruses find it easier to infect/spread in people with low immunity, brainwashing is much easier in people with poor emotional control.
Easy to offend = Easy to manipulate
A society that will celebrate being emotional, will always be manipulated by viruses of society. We are in the transition period of ICO garbage money scams into "hopefully" real-world use cases that add value that everyone can be proud of.
If you ask taxi drivers why they hate Uber, its because it hurts their business.
If you ask bankers why they hate bitcoin and cryptocurrency, its also because they threaten their business.
The hatred towards crypto was never about technology/innovation. It's really about fear.
We are in a revolution against the waning power of governments and bankers. Their only weapon is sowing fear. If you give into that fear, then it impedes and delays our inevitable victory. Cryptocurrencies are not crashing. They are bending against the impotent wind of the past.
Banks are scared sh!tless. If they had self-awareness they would rush to hire the best of us to help transform them into something useful in the new order, but their strategic thinking has frozen. They cannot see that fighting crypto is futile. Only cooperation will save them.

Doo ya mind me asking how much money in or around you have invested in cryptocurrency? And are ya really buying in now?

nuac

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Not half as scary as my chart is telling me buy don't buy into bitcoin until it hits 1k and then hold.
February is going to be carnage looking at the charts. There was nothing to back up the rise last year the price was only increasing because the price kept increasing.
A major correction is a good thing as it's gone way out control and it's use as a currency is completely lost. If it becomes cheap again and confidence grows it'll be great for crypto in the long term, Bitcoin has done it's job it's woken people up to a new technology. Now everyone wants one. A major correction will make that possible.

Bitcoin at 1k will have everyone interested and if thursday in Lidl is anything to go by we'll all be buying the bitcoin sale.

Hasn't momentum investing always been popular in many merkets?