FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Well that's pretty emphatic

pauldry

I wont be at all surprised to see snow next Tuesday for Sligo

1/ Tuesday morning is the most often day Ive seen snow in my life
2/ Early February snowfall has occurred quite a few times since I moved to this house 13 years ago
3/All this Winter has been relatively cool so the peak time for coldness is usually the last week of January and first week February
4/ Sea Temps are now near the lowest they will be so less moderation likely
5/ The most predictable thing to happen would for it not to snow and someday it has to be unpredictable
6/ itl prob only last until everyone gets really excited by it n then melt

Couple of other models that are now in range of the 6th too:

WRM's lower resolution 12Z:

ICON-EU 18Z:

typhoony

it's a hair breath away from being a classic setup on the 18z, we've almost got perfect warm air advection up the west side of Greenland and a fledgling scandi high. the difference between cold and very cold is just a tweak away on the GFS.

12z GFS ensembles for roughly Dublin - Mean 850 temps barely get above -5c. Towards the end of the run there are even a few rogue runs that push towards the -15c mark...

Donegal Storm wrote: »

GFS is showing rain for Monday night with light back edge snow giving a patchy dusting, followed by light north westerlies with wintry showers in the north and west on Tuesday and Wednesday, dry elsewhere with daytime temps of 2-4C.

People going a bit over the top here

One GFS run, lots of runs showing -7c to -11c 850 temps with slack winds, temperatures would struggle to get much above 0c, during the day, especially with any snow cover, with very severe frosts at night. Also pressure looks low enough during the week for features to pop up at short notice. - No point in trying to forecast where gets snow with any real accuracy beyond 24 hours max in this setup.

Of course this could all go pear shaped still but we're looking good so far.

Donegal Storm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

but ECM a lot colder and you'd always prefer the ECM on your side. Still no guarantees obviously

I tend to trust the model showing the most boring solution, far more often than not it'll be right. Naturally I hope it's wrong but no point getting excited yet for what might be just a few hours of slush

Rebelbrowser

Donegal Storm wrote: »

GFS is showing rain for Monday night with light back edge snow giving a patchy dusting, followed by light north westerlies with wintry showers in the north and west on Tuesday and Wednesday, dry elsewhere with daytime temps of 2-4C.

People going a bit over the top here

but ECM a lot colder and you'd always prefer the ECM on your side. Still no guarantees obviously

Donegal Storm

GFS is showing rain for Monday night with light back edge snow giving a patchy dusting, followed by light north westerlies with wintry showers in the north and west on Tuesday and Wednesday, dry elsewhere with daytime temps of 2-4C.

People going a bit over the top here

snowstorm445

squarecircles wrote: »

No mention of the potential cold next week after the 6.1 news.

Seem to deliberately stop with detail after Monday.

Only natural given that this spell of weather isn’t completely guaranteed. There are still many factors that could spoil the party. If it’s still there by Sunday then its probably game on.

km79

cherryghost wrote: »

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

Any sign of anything resembling dry weather ??????this "dry " week has been anything but! Another half inch of rain last night

squarecircles

No mention of the potential cold next week after the 6.1 news.

Seem to deliberately stop with detail after Monday.

cherryghost wrote: »

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

Get the cold in first, yada yada yada

cherryghost

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

12z ecm just rolling out is an upgrade up to wednesday. Looking very good... .

Indeed, -12c 850 temps over southern England by +144hrs, any correction West of this could see them over Ireland come the day itself... We are on the cusp of a very wintry spell of weather.

Models today have backed everything west, I doubt Tuesday's front will make it to the UK at all.

Rebelbrowser

12z ecm just rolling out is an upgrade up to wednesday. Looking very good... .

pad199207

Ofcourse the ideal scenario would be the front to dump a lot of snow over Ireland and gradually fizzle out over the Irish Sea and miss Britain.

Oh how Wicked of me.....

MJohnston wrote: »

More interested in this coming in range of tomorrow's ARPEGE, to get a 3rd perspective!

How are you feeling about it all now?

Also ARPEGE:

Soccarboy11

that looks like it actually shows lines just over cork city, if this comes true there will be plenty of happy people!

JCX BXC wrote: »

Think I'll give this one a miss here in West Clare

These things tend to correct West over time so we are probably far from any final placement of where the front actually stalls.

JCX BXC

Think I'll give this one a miss here in West Clare

ARPEGE:

typhoony

sure possibly a sleety/snow mix for the West and NorthWest on Teusday morning and a bit of snow for the midlands. dying out before it reaches the east.

If I had to make a prediction for the best chance of lying snow it would be Wednesday morning onwards for the east coast when light NE winds should bring in enough precipitation and cold to produce snow

This is the run where the ARPEGE will come in range too. It's a slow rollout though.

12z's are super again across the board - Tuesday looking interesting for frontal snow potential.

114-574UK.GIF?01-12

pistolpetes11

MOD NOTE :

Please try and keep this thread to Technical Model Discussion , general chit chat or IMBY posts can go in the winter thread , Im not going to move them or delete them as they will get lost in other topics

Rebelbrowser

gabeeg wrote: »

Do the models ever handle Irish Sea streamers?

True. I suppose my analysis was a bit IMBY influenced!