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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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George Sunsnow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

lol - oh how wrong...:D

Yeah but I’ve had a read of the equivalent of this thread from mid January 2007 and it ain’t pretty
Cold as this a lot nearer and over the course of 2 days whoooosh it never came (even to GB)
Models aren’t any better,if anything they are worse

So No I’d dilate the pupils but no lobbing the gob into anyone yet

Larbre34

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

lol - oh how wrong...:D

Impressive to be able to correct someone on a pattern of weather happening next Monday/Tuesday. As ever, we shall see.

Rebelbrowser

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Yeah but I’ve had a read of the equivalent of this thread from mid January 2007 and it ain’t pretty
Cold as this a lot nearer and over the course of 2 days whoooosh it never came (even to GB)
Models aren’t any better,if anything they are worse

So No I’d dilate the pupils but no lobbing the gob into anyone yet

I remember in around 2011 there were about two occasions when charts showed -12 uppers over Ireland 5 days away but nowt ever reached Kent, let alone us. I think Evelyn Cusack even jumped the gun on one 6pm bulletin and said an easterly was on its way (only to drop the idea quicksmart on the 9pm news!).

john why

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Very rare sight to see the ICON model for any snow anywhere in Ireland...

Defend the east

Give us a tread Kermit. Please

BLIZZARD7

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I remember in around 2011 there were about two occasions when charts showed -12 uppers over Ireland 5 days away but nowt ever reached Kent, let alone us. I think Evelyn Cusack even jumped the gun on one 6pm bulletin and said an easterly was on its way (only to drop the idea quicksmart on the 9pm news!).

December 2012- one ECM in particular had us in a brutal easterly at +96-120hrs.

Just had a look back through some of the 2007 thread, not pretty. Although anyone who has experienced these letdowns knows you need cross model support at +48-72hrs and also some room for movement.

We are overdue a decent cold snowy shot anyway.

pad199207

john why wrote: »

Give us a tread Kermit. Please

No we need to be VERY careful here. Some of us are already losing the run of ourselves.

Way too early for a thread for this. If it was a cold showery NWly ya could start one now yeah because it’s practically guaranteed.

With an easterly don’t start it until the first flakes fall on the east coast

patneve2

Very interesting and rare set ups being offered for next week. I particularly like the ECM. Nice to see offshore winds for the potential Tuesday event.

Also it is very good to see how cautious people are in here, +120 hrs is an abyss when it comes to forecasting and it seems we have all learned our lesson from previous let downs. Best thing to do is to look at the models once a day, you tend to get a clearer picture of whats going on that way.

gabeeg

pad199207 wrote: »

No we need to be VERY careful here. Some of us are already losing the run of ourselves.

Way too early for a thread for this. If it was a cold showery NWly ya could start one now yeah because it’s practically guaranteed.

With an easterly don’t start it until the first flakes fall on the east coast

My take - if it's not an easterly it's a cold North Westerly

pauldry

Im scared to say anything

Is this thread a dream?

Am i awake?

Rebelbrowser

I just ran the precipitation charts for the 06z GFS and the 0z GEM all the way through and they show not a flake of snow down here at any stage and not much better in Dublin so no guarantees that the present guidance will lead to snowmaggedon for many of us. I appreciate there are better models for precipitation that will come on stream nearer the time.

mahoney_j

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I just ran the precipitation charts for the 06z GFS and the 0z GEM all the way through and they show not a flake of snow down here at any stage and not much better in Dublin so no guarantees that the present guidance will lead to snowmaggedon for many of us. I appreciate there are better models for precipitation that will come on stream nearer the time.

A dry cold easterly/north easterly fook it I don’t where our weather comes from as long as it’s dry

gabeeg

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I just ran the precipitation charts for the 06z GFS and the 0z GEM all the way through and they show not a flake of snow down here at any stage and not much better in Dublin so no guarantees that the present guidance will lead to snowmaggedon for many of us. I appreciate there are better models for precipitation that will come on stream nearer the time.

Do the models ever handle Irish Sea streamers?

Rebelbrowser

gabeeg wrote: »

Do the models ever handle Irish Sea streamers?

True. I suppose my analysis was a bit IMBY influenced!

pistolpetes11

MOD NOTE :

Please try and keep this thread to Technical Model Discussion , general chit chat or IMBY posts can go in the winter thread , Im not going to move them or delete them as they will get lost in other topics

BLIZZARD7

12z's are super again across the board - Tuesday looking interesting for frontal snow potential.

114-574UK.GIF?01-12

MJohnston

This is the run where the ARPEGE will come in range too. It's a slow rollout though.

typhoony

sure possibly a sleety/snow mix for the West and NorthWest on Teusday morning and a bit of snow for the midlands. dying out before it reaches the east.

If I had to make a prediction for the best chance of lying snow it would be Wednesday morning onwards for the east coast when light NE winds should bring in enough precipitation and cold to produce snow

MJohnston

ARPEGE:

JCX BXC

Think I'll give this one a miss here in West Clare

BLIZZARD7

JCX BXC wrote: »

Think I'll give this one a miss here in West Clare

These things tend to correct West over time so we are probably far from any final placement of where the front actually stalls.

Soccarboy11

that looks like it actually shows lines just over cork city, if this comes true there will be plenty of happy people!

MJohnston

Also ARPEGE:

gabeeg

MJohnston wrote: »

More interested in this coming in range of tomorrow's ARPEGE, to get a 3rd perspective!

How are you feeling about it all now?

pad199207

Ofcourse the ideal scenario would be the front to dump a lot of snow over Ireland and gradually fizzle out over the Irish Sea and miss Britain.

Oh how Wicked of me.....

Rebelbrowser

12z ecm just rolling out is an upgrade up to wednesday. Looking very good... .

BLIZZARD7

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

12z ecm just rolling out is an upgrade up to wednesday. Looking very good... .

Indeed, -12c 850 temps over southern England by +144hrs, any correction West of this could see them over Ireland come the day itself... We are on the cusp of a very wintry spell of weather.

Models today have backed everything west, I doubt Tuesday's front will make it to the UK at all.

cherryghost

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

gabeeg

cherryghost wrote: »

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

Get the cold in first, yada yada yada

squarecircles

No mention of the potential cold next week after the 6.1 news.

Seem to deliberately stop with detail after Monday.

km79

cherryghost wrote: »

Looks great but would like some more moisture please!

Any sign of anything resembling dry weather ??????this "dry " week has been anything but! Another half inch of rain last night