nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

gabeeg

Well it is a silly place to live if you like snow.

You should know better.

MJohnston

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

All the west coasters

gabeeg

I'm not sure where all the melancholy is coming from.

There's broad model support for a decent cold period coming up with plenty of snowy potential coming in from both sides.

And maybe the GFS has gone mad, but if it's got this right then we're possibly in for one of the greats

Meteorite58

This will no doubt change but looks good

Cold week next week, Tues looking very cold at this stage.

I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!

Snow is just so rare on this side of the country at low levels, maybe a few snow showers on Tues next if we are lucky!

MJohnston

squarecircles wrote: »

Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.

More interested in this coming in range of tomorrow's ARPEGE, to get a 3rd perspective!

gabeeg

Balls to that, I'd be up til six

squarecircles

Anyone waiting up till 4am to peek at the gfs 00z.

snowstorm445

gabeeg wrote: »

Are the islands themselves responsible for the high?

Like, should I hate them and their peoples?

They’re actually beautiful islands, would recommend a visit.

But yes the Azores High is unfortunately the scourge of the Irish winter. As the above charts grimly highlight.

gabeeg

Look at this instead.

JCX BXC

I'm a bit depressed looking at Meteorites chart!

pad199207

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Now there’s an under statement...

I know wouldn’t be like me

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

That 18z is NOT without interest

Now there’s an under statement...

pad199207

That 18z is NOT without interest

gabeeg

It's getting well into the unreliable timeframe now, but it's impossible to stop watching.

Nearing five days of freezing temps and snow possibilities from pretty much every direction.

Snowbiee21

I’ll leave this one here❄️

BLIZZARD7

The 18z GFS sends Ireland and the UK into the freezer, -10c 850hpa temps pouring in from BOTH the East and North West, a snowy Nirvana if this were to come to pass.

Now let's get this inside +96hrs...

typhoony

bit of an upgrade on this run and something for everyone. the jet is in an unusual position and with a quiet Atlantic we also get an unusually cold source from the north west as well being on the edge of an easterly. interesting times ahead

gabeeg

Bit more bite in the Easterly on the pub run

It's an amazing run. Not so far into FI at all.

Oh god, please happen

Meteorite58

Been following the ECM on next Mondays potential and certainly a great study perhaps ( for me anyway :pac: ) for a front running into cold air and producing snow. The ECM can be shy enough at predicting snow but promising at this early stage, but still 5 days away. Looks like the Eastern side of the country with the most chance but if this comes off it will probably have a rain/ sleet start and maybe a sleet / rain ending?.

Tues looks very cold also but at that stage looking like a NW'ly feed of wintry precipitation. In general looking quite cold. Four days ago it was looking like HP's and a big change since so anything can happen .

MidMan25

gabeeg wrote: »

Are the islands themselves responsible for the high?

Like, should I hate them and their peoples?

Yes a few tiny dots in the middle of the Atlantic responsible for a huge high pressure :pac:

gabeeg

Are the islands themselves responsible for the high?

Like, should I hate them and their peoples?

squarecircles

Ahhhh The auwl elongated triangular finger of green slime.

There it is,stretching from deep in the Azores,curving and arching beautifully with precision,so as to envelope Ireland and only Ireland in its moist intimate Bossom.Its a deep,deep love affair,oh saucy! ...

...Deep cold to our north east,and unusual cold splurging southwards in the north Atlantic,but there it is,the ever present elongated triangular finger of green slime that somehow manages to position itself perfectly to prevent the cold reaching ireland,the same finger of slime that prevents hot Spanish plumes encroaching over Ireland in summer.

It prevents and shunts the deep cold pool away to the east before it strides slowly eastwards, then as the deep cold from the north Atlantic staggers foward,it falls apart moments before reaching our shores,by about 50 miles,modifies and dilutes into watery mi-wadi,like an unfit athlete that's run out of breath.Its hilarious,if you ever watch the -10 hpa isotherm approach Ireland it just dies a death as it approaches,no matter which angle it's coming from,it will side step us and hop up to Scotland,it's will dance around us and easily pour itself over southern england,
Before the final kick in the teeth - watching it ouzze down towards Spain and the med with such grace and ease and swagger.

Rinse & Repeat.

kod87

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Solid ECM. The "beast from the east" vs the, eh, "beast from the west":pac: You'll be able to see the beast from your house;)

Progress is progress.

Yes, and we would be stuck in the sleety ****e in the middle, typical

George Sunsnow

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You'll be able to see the beast from your house;)

Progress is progress.

Hopefully I won’t need a really powerful telescope!

JCX BXC

Went from nothing to this, quite interesting.

Extremely skeptical for my location as always, what's frontal snow 10km inland could be rain here.

ninebeanrows

Yea - they aren't your picture postcard Synoptics but they are cold and very interesting with numerous sliding snow events possible. An interesting 10 days aheadðŸ‘

Kermit.de.frog

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Aye snow just needs the air below freezing and not above 1c or so at the surface from cloud base to ground

So if fast moving air at 5000 ft is -2c and advected surface air from sea level to 1000ft from a freezing UK is around 0c or 1c, your precip will probably be snow
It happened in 2010
It often happened in the 80’s

Solid ECM. The "beast from the east" vs the, eh, "beast from the west":pac: You'll be able to see the beast from your house;)

Progress is progress.

George Sunsnow

Aye snow just needs the air below freezing and not above 1c or so at the surface from cloud base to ground

So if fast moving air at 5000 ft is -2c and advected surface air from sea level to 1000ft from a freezing UK is around 0c or 1c, your precip will probably be snow
It happened in 2010
It often happened in the 80’s

nacho libre

With an easterly, given the continent is in the freezer, we don't need upper air to be as cold as say from a north westerly for snow to fall, also dew points from an easterly should be lower due to dryer air. As well as that snow can fall with -2 uppers from a frontal event, if the wet bulb temperature is low enough(0.6)
Although, as you say, what will likely happen is the front decays over Ireland. I just hope you are wrong and this is one of these rare occurrences where everything goes right and we see Met Eireann talking about significant accumulations even to lower levels.

MJohnston

bnt wrote: »

I know, and you know, but I'm thinking of casual visitors who might not be familiar with such specific jargon.

Well this is the Technical Discussion thread, so there's going to be lots of terminology they aren't familiar with.