Akrasia wrote: » The precise amount of acceptable risk is debatable, but there is a principle in risk management that low probability high impact events should be planned for as much as high probability low impact events. When an apartment building is discovered to have been built without regard to the fire dampening regulations, the people in that apartment building are told they have to leave and can not live there until remedial action takes place. This is because even though a fire in that apartment building is something that might never happen, the consequences of a fire in a large building that hasn't been built to code can be catastrophic. This is the 'alarmist' message. Not that climate change is definitely going to be catastrophic, but that there is enough uncertainty and the fact that if we reach certain tipping points, the consequences are irreversible, that we should concentrate on mitigating the risk and take it seriously.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » SyranBruen dismisses it as rubbish just as Gaoth Laidir did. Oh and Gaoth Laidir, good lad selecting the bits from papers that back up his arguments neglecting other passages that put a very different spin on things.
nacho libre wrote: » Did you miss this post:https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105995996&postcount=268 Surely if you have information you feel can sway the argument in your favour, you would be keen to share it.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Zero evidence or are you not looking properly. Poor research I would’ve thought.
1. What assessments of global glacier volume and of its changes in recent decades are available? How uncertain are they? Are monitored glaciers representative of the total glacier mass balance? What is the level of the associated uncertainty (for the past and future)? A complete inventory of the Earth’s glaciers does not yet exist. Estimates of the overall ice volume of glaciers and ice caps therefore contain large uncertainties. Yet, improved extrapolation and scaling efforts have constrained the total mass in glaciers and ice caps to be slightly above 0.5 m sea level equivalent. Our current understanding of the recent past and the actual rates of changes have improved since the AR4, and are within acceptable ranges of uncertainty. However, uncertainties are still quite large for the future. The spatial distribution of existing glacier mass balance monitoring is not representative of the global glacier coverage contributing to sea level rise. There is an urgent need for improved data from the largest glaciers and ice caps. Further monitoring of mass balance is also required in poorly sampled climatic regions, as is homogenization and quality control of existing mass balance series.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » I already stated I wouldn’t share thanks to Gaoth Laidirs bad attitude.
sryanbruen wrote: » Not at all, what a load of rubbish.
Meteorite58 wrote: » Mod Note: Please show courtesy when posting and refrain from making harsh statements.
sryanbruen wrote: » I have edited my post with some evidence.
Akrasia wrote: » This year hasn't been especially bad for storms, apart from a few fairly bad flooding events, and ex tropical storm Ophelia which was far from a normal meteorological event given where it formed and how far it travelled north while maintaining major hurricane force winds, but according to John Sweeney from NUI Maynooth, the winter of 2013/2014 was the stormiest in 140 years in both Ireland and the UK, and the winter of 2015/2016 was the wettest on record for much of the country. Its a very legitimate concern that the storms hitting Ireland every winter appear to be getting stronger and wetter and are changing from the typical atlantic depressions that we have been exposed to in the past.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » When it comes to climate, Prof. Sweeney likes to paint the most pessimistic picture whenever he can.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Here's Prof. Sweeny's excellent article in full.https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/ireland-is-already-encountering-climate-change-and-its-going-to-get-worse-expert-warns-36548645.html
“Everywhere in the country today is half a degree warmer than it was 30 years ago,” he said during a discussion on Ireland’s progress in meeting carbon emission reduction targets.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Just a note too. Typically we have 2-3 storms from the start of the year until now. This year we've had seven in quick succession Georgina, Fionn, Brian, Eleanor, Hector, Larry and Geoffrey. Coincidence or climate change right before our eyes?
“But the real climate change impacts in Ireland will come from rainfall changes,” he said. “There will be increased winter rainfall for the west of Ireland in particular and decreased summer rainfall in the east where (the majority of) our people are located and where public water supply will become a growing concern,” he told the committee. He warned that the extreme weather episodes we have recently witnessed – including flooding in Galway city and Mountmellick, Co Laois – will “change much more quickly and the extremes will change much more radically than the mean.” For example, the winter of 2013-14 was “the stormiest winter in both Ireland the UK for at least the last 143 years – that’s an extreme event,” he said. The winter of 2015-16 was also the wettest on record in much of the country.
Gaoth Laidir wrote: » Yep, not much to worry about in there really. The actual extent of rainfall changes are very small. Any sign of that research you promised us this morning? Dying to read it.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » I’m reviewing a portion of it.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Let’s stick to the topic guys. I still think although Professor Sweeney’s article contradicts what he said to Pat Kenny slightly he’s been fairly consistent and convincing.
Gaoth Lag wrote: » Insults? Show me where I insulted anyone?
