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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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nagdefy

Looking at the charts this evening and it's one of those ocassions where it's best take a 5 day break and have a look then

Only we never follow through on those intentions!

giveitholly

nagdefy wrote: »

Looking at the charts this evening and it's one of those ocassions where it's best take a 5 day break and have a look then

Only we never follow through on those intentions!

What are they showing

nagdefy

giveitholly wrote: »

What are they showing

A lot of Atlantic dominated weather, no real cold and no snow

But they can flip in a few days. Hard to see anything but mild weather for the next week though. I sometimes take a break and after 4 or 5 days there might be something to look at.

giveitholly

nagdefy wrote: »

A lot of Atlantic dominated weather, no real cold and no snow But they can flip in a few days. Hard to see anything but mild weather for the next week though. I sometimes take a break and after 4 or 5 days there might be something to look at.

Thanks,are they showing a lot of rain

nagdefy

giveitholly wrote: »

Thanks,are they showing a lot of rain

No problem. The Jet would be over us a fair bit of the time so it would be above average rain. On a quick glance it doesn't show anything really severe stormwise.

Again things can change but it looks like a week of this sort of weather. As Sryan points out different atmospheric changes can disrupt an Atlantic pattern reasonably quickly. The SSW or Sudden Stratospheric Warming is one of them but can take a few weeks to filter down to the lower levels of the atmosphere.

nagdefy

giveitholly wrote: »

What are they showing

The forecasters to look out for are MT Cranium on the boards website, link below. Daily forecasts and updates during weather events. Voluntary forecasts.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=315

Met Eireann's own website. On here my favourite posters who have a lot of info are: Sryan, Oneric, Gaoth Laidir (who is very realistic in snowfall predictions and often doesn't get the credit he deserves!!), Nacho Libre, Kermit, January Snowstor, JXC from Clare, Meteorite 58, Gonzo and Clonmel (who call things as they see it!), George Sunsnow, Donegal Storm, MJohnston and Oscar Bravo, Rebel Browser and Munster Legend. I'm sure i'm forgetting a few but you'll learn a lot from those posters. As i've learnt a lot from them.

Maidhci

Watching the Met Eireann weather forecast at 21.30 with Joanna Donnelly, it appears that Wednesday next is going to be very stormy? The average wind speed shown on the weekly chart for Wednesday was 55km, which is unusual this far ahead. After all, this week they were showing averages of 35km and 40km, one day ahead of the forecast storm(s). Am I reading this correctly - sincerely hope so?

Meteorite58

Watching the Met Eireann weather forecast at 21.30 with Joanna Donnelly, it appears that Wednesday next is going to be very stormy? The average wind speed shown on the weekly chart for Wednesday was 55km, which is unusual this far ahead. After all, this week they were showing averages of 35km and 40km, one day ahead of the forecast storm(s). Am I reading this correctly - sincerely hope so?

I think the ECM at this stage is showing a blustery Tues and quite windy on Weds in the early hours followed by a breezy day and staying quite windy probably on the coasts ( more so the Atlantic side ). This is just into FI, in that 13.00 weds on the ECM is +120 hrs and is a bit far out to be anyway for sure so this could change in timing and intensity one way or the other.

The GFS is showing a possible cold sourced area of Lp on Thurs close to us .

Looking very mild on Tues and turning colder on Weds.

Looking quite wet during Weds and Thurs possibly.

Showing a lively jet over us for a couple of days around Tues - Weds.

The week after showing Hp over or near us for some days.

KRxUPrV.gif?1

850hPa winds

yAPNxEE.gif?1

Well into FI, we will see.

7UEk7TN.gif?1

Elmer Blooker

The differences at Day 10 are a joke! The ECM shows the usual mobile westerly in the North Atlantic and the GFS shows a gigantic mid latitude block.

It will interesting to see what the Jan 30th charts actually look like.

gfs-0-240.png?6

Meteorite58

ECM having none of this Hp business !

WqDe2id.png?1

esposito

Ecmwf 12z looks interesting for coldies from 192 onwards. Pattern change? Far out in FI I know but encouraging anyway.

Captain Snow

Very Nice . Cold into Europe.

typhoony

GFS certainly keen on the idea of the Atlantic train slowing down, charts at +180 show a high sending a tongue out to Scandinavia, ripe for an early Feb easterly,very likely scenario with low developing over southern Europe

sryanbruen

I'll just leave this here from the GFS 12z for early February

sryanbruen

Plenty of cold model runs to look at for early February, see the latest ones below for example.

Even the GEM (which was in its own world yesterday with what it was showing) is showing the prospects of cold tonight.

esposito

Looks interesting with the cross model agreement. Let’s hope the ECM and UKMO come on board for a more sustained cold outbreak. Getting tired of these 1 to 2 day a cold weather “events”.

sryanbruen

Ireland is just abouts on the knife edge of a beasterly on the ECM 12z:

However, then cold air starts to try and flood in from the west:

The GFS OP has backtracked today with milder solutions for early February but there is a lot of scatter in its ensembles and I mean A LOT of scatter, take Dublin's GEFS 12z for example:

There are some quite cold ensembles mixed in there!

I'd like to post this brilliant comment regarding model runs by my friend James over at GWV:

I seem to think the only certainty we have at present is that the models, have really been struggling since the start of winter, possibly before, with Fantasy Island being closer than you think normally. Just because a model or models show a solution in one run or multiple runs doesn't necessarily ,"Make it so," to quote Captain Picard unfortunately. Hence what the models giveth the models can take away, given that the further predicted events are from the initial conditions the greater the error will possibly be. Try not to get too excited or upset about what you see.

Meteorite58

The models , for the moment anyway, trending towards Hp the week after next. The Jet forecast to take a Northerly route.

sryanbruen

Every op run on every model today has handled the low in question this weekend differently by quite a substantial margin. The changes between each GFS run today have been evident; but the difference between the UKMO and the GFS 12z runs at +144 is stark. Therefore, to rule anything in or out at this stage is still a pretty risky move in all honesty and I wouldn’t personally be ruling out another significant change between now and next week. The JMA is still going for a bit of an easterly early next week for what it's worth - the UKMO is in agreement.

It's all a very messy picture! Ah god, the headaches from this.

George Sunsnow

I wouldn’t rule anything out but still side with our climactic norm
Before modeling or in the era of basic modeling forecasters didn’t have the ‘luxury’ of computers going off on one to this extreme or that
Outcomes were simply unknown 8 days ahead and to be honest we’re seeing evidence on this thread time and time again that we’re no better off today
I’m siding again with Joanna Donnelly who tweeted recently that 240 charts are about as useful as kindergarten crayon classes

pad199207

I’ve only stayed in the +96hrs club since middle of December and believe me it is a much happier life. I wouldn’t look back to those days of getting excited beyond that.

Donegal Storm

There's been little to get excited about even if you were looking to the far reaches, the past few weeks runs have been about as bland and uninspiring as you could ever hope for at this time of year. The lack of posts recently speak volumes and it doesn't look like changing any time soon

gabeeg

UKMO has the beginnings of an easterly at 120

GFS disagrees, but is moving towards it

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I’m siding again with Joanna Donnelly who tweeted recently that 240 charts are about as useful as kindergarten crayon classes

They are useful if they are showing our default pattern. In other words if a 240 hour chart from the ECM is showing mild southwesterlies it is more than likely correct. What she should have said is a 240 hour charts depicting easterlies for Ireland, or anything against the climactic norm, is about as useful as kindergarden crayon classes.
Anyway, I think we may well have a cold start to March based on what is happening in the stratosphere.

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

UKMO has the beginnings of an easterly at 120

GFS disagrees, but is moving towards it

UW144-7.gif.835d761406dccfe25c610d9a1583dc04.gif

An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.

Indeed the outlook on all the main models is a bit unusual looking, not sure it will translate into unusual weather for us but we definitely aren't looking at the usual stuck in a rut atlantic charts (albeit the bitter Canadian air flowing into the atlantic may have something to say about that). Given the depth of cold to our northwest and building cold to our east/North east, it wouldn't take a huge amount of luck to see a colder version of the early December snowfall in the coming weeks.

MJO now almost certain to move into high amplitude phase 7, we could see some very nice charts soon if the models see a continuing progression into phase 8.

nacho libre

[QUOTE=BLIZZARD7;106000413

MJO now almost certain to move into high amplitude phase 7, we could see some very nice charts soon if the models see a continuing progression into phase 8.[/QUOTE]

Yeah i think this attempt will fail because of the cold Canadian air( if it were to plunge down into the sea off Portugal, we would be laughing), but a bit later on in February things will hopefully fall into place with the effects of the mjo starting to show on the models. Another good indicator is if Kermit the frog and Gaoth Laidir agree that the parameters are perfect for snow! Then we will really be in business.

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah i think this attempt will fail because of the cold Canadian air( if it were to plunge down into the sea off Portugal, we would be laughing), but a bit later on in February things will hopefully fall into place with the effects of the mjo starting to show on the models. Another good indicator is if Kermit the frog and Gaoth Laidir agree that the parameters are perfect for snow! Then we will really be in business.

Aha one can dream

Later into Feb we have potential strat effects coming into play too, Mean zonal winds expected to see a big drop/potential reversal-

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.

We really are the piglet in the middle, aren't we?

-8 to the left of me, -10 to the right,

Here we are stuck in the middle of you.

nacho libre

IMG_20180130_183655.png.b94d733c84cd6c846aa316e1f9c2390b.png

Impressive cold air well into the Atlantic from a northwesterly!
It would be quite something if that -12 air made it all the way here from a north westerly. Has it ever happened before? I know in 2010 we had but that was from a proper northerly feed with less modification en route to contend with.