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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Y

I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

.

I remember they had to get grief counsellors over on Netweather for some forum regulars at the time. A lot of toys were thrown out of the prams...

Regarding the GFS it does show some potent cold from the north west in its later stages. Also if we bear in mind what M.T Cranium has said in his winter forecast, even if this cold spell does go awry, we might have another go at it later in January.

sryanbruen

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

Yes it was though not to the extent that it was in December showing the mid-December cold snap as well as New Year's easterly blast. It went overboard with the February easterly.

I am quite aware of the November 2012/December 2012 one courtesy of pad199207, I can feel the pain of model watching that must have been.

I'm hoping this one is different as January has been looking like the best month for any chance of severe cold or heavy snow out of Winter 2017/18.

The GFS is seriously doing my nuts in, same with the long range models such as the CFSv2 which are going for an exceptionally wet January and very zonal dominated.

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

Great, well then it's had plenty of mistakes to learn from

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

Very true. I had forgotten that till you mentioned it. How many times did it tease us with fantastic day nine and 10 charts last year. Although if we are being optimistic we could also say that the GFS handles easterly poorly and has a tendency to be too progressive in breaking them down.

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

I do recall it showing a few late November /december - was it doing it all through winter though? There's also that infamous december 2012 one that disappeared at +72 hours...

pad199207

sryanbruen wrote: »

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

And 2012

Jesus when I think of it

nacho libre

nagdefy wrote: »

If only the GFS would get it's act together! A bit underwhelming 12Z. I was really fearing an ECM climb down..

What could happen is a blend of all three- the cold does sustain a bit longer than shown on the GFS but we eventually get the GFS breakdown. I am no expert on teleconnection signals, but they all apparently point to this being a brief cold spell. If it is a brief affair, i think most would be happy with a snowy breakdown, that way it's not just the east of Ireland that gets to have all fun:)

sryanbruen

Just a precaution to anybody reading these charts, the ECM was infamous for phantom easterlies last Winter.

Billcarson

Vintage easterly , I feel an 80s style cold spell coming on,or certainly the potential for one.

George Sunsnow

Here’s the +192 ECM tonight
Enjoy

nagdefy

If only the GFS would get it's act together! A bit underwhelming 12Z. I was really fearing an ECM climb down..

sryanbruen

Another amazing run from the ECM with the 12z today! That's 3 consecutive fantastic runs.

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

Please keep this thread for actual model discussion, or posting of charts whichever way the weather turns

Gaoth Laidir

Coastal waters are below 10 degrees, but up around 11 in mid Irish Sea.

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

If netweather had been around in 1962/63, some of those guys would have been looking to the breakdown in March. They would also complain if a 2 foot snowstorm was about to hit, they'd give you the impression it was was going to be nothing because it might miss their backyard.
That said as we all know things can go pear shaped at the last minute. I recall the infamous eastleries that never was back in December 2012. With two or three days to go the models flipped to a zonal outlook. However it does look like we will have a north easterly of some sort over the weekend.
After that i would not like to bet on what happens.

Captain Snow

onmebike wrote: »

Is that air temperatures at sea or the water temperature? Dublin Bay is showing 7.9 at the moment.

https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy/status/948160292281901056

Sea Temperatures.

onmebike

Captain Snow wrote: »

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/ireland/

With Irish sea Temperatures about 12c. We will see big beefy Snow Showers pounding the Irish sea coast line.

Is that air temperatures at sea or the water temperature? Dublin Bay is showing 7.9 at the moment.

https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy/status/948160292281901056

Captain Snow

Billcarson wrote: »

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/ireland/

With Irish sea Temperatures about 12c. We will see big beefy Snow Showers pounding the Irish sea coast line.

Snowbiee21

Billcarson wrote: »

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

Agreed know more tonight / wed

Billcarson

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

George Sunsnow

I should have posted elsewhere as this will go OT
Pay little heed to Southeast and Kent centric netweather and it’s littered with high post count ignorance
Thus far modeled,the Synoptics are plenty cold enough for snow in Ireland from that direction
No one in an FI thread like this is saying anything other than 2 things
What said map would do if verified and the likelihood is getting higher or lower

On the latter point I see all charts on averagemoving a day closer as we get closer so far thus far which is a good sign

derekon

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Too much going on today to Thursday for weather forecasters to focus on the weekend yet
However Matt Taylor on news 24 did say at the start of his 955 am ‘more snow in the forecast for the weekend’

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

George Sunsnow

Too much going on today to Thursday for weather forecasters to focus on the weekend yet
However Matt Taylor on news 24 did say at the start of his 955 am ‘more snow in the forecast for the weekend’

BLIZZARD7

Euro models keeping the momentum going this morning with the GEM and ECM showing a prolonged cold spell setting in, not something we have seen for a few years now. UKMO also quite good. GFS has the Atlantic winning out by next week.

ECM Day 9 and GEM Day 8 - Bitter easterlies entrenched

ECM Day 10 - Big Greeny High about to appear with height rises over the pole, continued East/North easterlies for Ireland, This run would keep us in the freezer for quite some time-

q85dw7osi4lebg

IOM shadow incoming

nacho libre

The ECM looks to possibly lengthen the cold spell. Whereas the GFS has the Atlantic winning by day 8. Still a lot of you might not care if the gfs is correct, if you get a couple of days with an active snowy shower train.

Snowbiee21

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Simply put,I don’t know,tonight’s output would have the east wintry for a few days with spikes in shower activity
But as we seem not able to pin down storms inside 48 hours,I’d leave it at there might be something to look forward to ahead
Something’s brewing anyway
A similar set up in February 79 delivered a fair amount of snow to the east I remember schools closing
It eventually fed in some very cold uppers,thus far not modeled on this one
See attached

Appreciate it thank you

George Sunsnow

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

From the latest guidance, could we be looking at an over night/day event or a more prolonged spell

Simply put,I don’t know,tonight’s output would have the east wintry for a few days with spikes in shower activity
But as we seem not able to pin down storms inside 48 hours,I’d leave it at there might be something to look forward to ahead
Something’s brewing anyway
A similar set up in February 79 delivered a fair amount of snow to the east I remember schools closing
It eventually fed in some very cold uppers,thus far not modeled on this one
See attached

Snowbiee21

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I wouldn’t quite say that now when you see what’s flirting with you from the SW bumping up against this cold by day 9

Very very nice for the Dubs by then too
-8’s and -9’s 850’s
Pressure not that high
Negative dew points
Lots of surface cold,thicknesses around the low 520’s
High sst
Yeah very interesting

From the latest guidance, could we be looking at an over night/day event or a more prolonged spell

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

However not for snow starved West Clare

I wouldn’t quite say that now when you see what’s flirting with you from the SW bumping up against this cold by day 9

Very very nice for the Dubs by then too
-8’s and -9’s 850’s
Pressure not that high
Negative dew points
Lots of surface cold,thicknesses around the low 520’s
High sst
Yeah very interesting