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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Oneiric 3

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There’s a huge cold pool over the snowfields of Scandinavia ,not to mention northeast of there
None over Europe yet but at the darkest time of winter,cold air advection from Russia/siberia is looming in Synoptics like these if they continue as the UK met office reckon they will
All win win really,a bite at the pie for everyone and possibly belly fulls at times

Any cold air that will follow on from that low will be sub-Maritime Arctic stuff. Doesn't make it any less interesting for your patch though.

George Sunsnow

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Any cold air that will follow on from that low will be sub-Maritime Arctic stuff. Doesn't make it any less interesting for your patch though.

I don’t fully disagree on the ‘initially’ but air coming down from that direction will have lower dew points ,more surface cold and a better longer game if sustained than anything else we’ve had by several country miles this winter so far

Kermit.de.frog

Nudge in the right direction. Still ample time to go.

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

First interesting run in quite a while in terms of real cold weather. Still doesn't deliver much with no cold pool anywhere to tap into but its been a good three weeks since we've seen anything but westerlies forecast. An interesting few days ahead before then as well with plenty of active weather

It is a flip from the ecm, but confidence in it lasting is not high. However, If it does sustain itself, not having a cool pool to draw from won't be a problem. At this times of year it won't take long for CAA to make its presence felt across Europe, and eventually here.

Kermit.de.frog

Good and less good so far this morning (but not bad)

UKMO is the best with increasingly snow showers in to the east and very cold air around.

UW120-21.GIF?01-05

In the freezer...

George Sunsnow

Eye candy on the 12Z GFS from next Sunday
A direct NE snow shower train creating feed into the east coast of Ireland from the mainline source for proper cold Scandinavia northeastwards
Looks like at least a few days of that maybe more

George Sunsnow

Oh My

The mighty ECM for Saturday lunchtime,these are not doing what they’ve done before,they’re actually moving steadily closer by the day ,brace yourselves ?

BLIZZARD7

Some beautiful cold and snowy charts starting to appear now in the 5 day timeframe... East Coast in the firing line this time. Tis a delicate situation though but it's getting closer.

Billcarson

Looking good for the snow starved east of the country Fri/sat.

JCX BXC

Billcarson wrote: »

Looking good for the snow starved east of the country Fri/sat.

However not for snow starved West Clare

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

However not for snow starved West Clare

I wouldn’t quite say that now when you see what’s flirting with you from the SW bumping up against this cold by day 9

Very very nice for the Dubs by then too
-8’s and -9’s 850’s
Pressure not that high
Negative dew points
Lots of surface cold,thicknesses around the low 520’s
High sst
Yeah very interesting

Snowbiee21

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I wouldn’t quite say that now when you see what’s flirting with you from the SW bumping up against this cold by day 9

Very very nice for the Dubs by then too
-8’s and -9’s 850’s
Pressure not that high
Negative dew points
Lots of surface cold,thicknesses around the low 520’s
High sst
Yeah very interesting

From the latest guidance, could we be looking at an over night/day event or a more prolonged spell

George Sunsnow

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

From the latest guidance, could we be looking at an over night/day event or a more prolonged spell

Simply put,I don’t know,tonight’s output would have the east wintry for a few days with spikes in shower activity
But as we seem not able to pin down storms inside 48 hours,I’d leave it at there might be something to look forward to ahead
Something’s brewing anyway
A similar set up in February 79 delivered a fair amount of snow to the east I remember schools closing
It eventually fed in some very cold uppers,thus far not modeled on this one
See attached

Snowbiee21

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Simply put,I don’t know,tonight’s output would have the east wintry for a few days with spikes in shower activity
But as we seem not able to pin down storms inside 48 hours,I’d leave it at there might be something to look forward to ahead
Something’s brewing anyway
A similar set up in February 79 delivered a fair amount of snow to the east I remember schools closing
It eventually fed in some very cold uppers,thus far not modeled on this one
See attached

Appreciate it thank you

nacho libre

The ECM looks to possibly lengthen the cold spell. Whereas the GFS has the Atlantic winning by day 8. Still a lot of you might not care if the gfs is correct, if you get a couple of days with an active snowy shower train.

q85dw7osi4lebg

IOM shadow incoming

BLIZZARD7

Euro models keeping the momentum going this morning with the GEM and ECM showing a prolonged cold spell setting in, not something we have seen for a few years now. UKMO also quite good. GFS has the Atlantic winning out by next week.

ECM Day 9 and GEM Day 8 - Bitter easterlies entrenched

ECM Day 10 - Big Greeny High about to appear with height rises over the pole, continued East/North easterlies for Ireland, This run would keep us in the freezer for quite some time-

George Sunsnow

Too much going on today to Thursday for weather forecasters to focus on the weekend yet
However Matt Taylor on news 24 did say at the start of his 955 am ‘more snow in the forecast for the weekend’

derekon

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Too much going on today to Thursday for weather forecasters to focus on the weekend yet
However Matt Taylor on news 24 did say at the start of his 955 am ‘more snow in the forecast for the weekend’

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

George Sunsnow

I should have posted elsewhere as this will go OT
Pay little heed to Southeast and Kent centric netweather and it’s littered with high post count ignorance
Thus far modeled,the Synoptics are plenty cold enough for snow in Ireland from that direction
No one in an FI thread like this is saying anything other than 2 things
What said map would do if verified and the likelihood is getting higher or lower

On the latter point I see all charts on averagemoving a day closer as we get closer so far thus far which is a good sign

Billcarson

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

Snowbiee21

Billcarson wrote: »

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

Agreed know more tonight / wed

Captain Snow

Billcarson wrote: »

A cold / v cold weekend looks pretty nailed to me. Only question is how much snow can the east get Fri into sat and how long will the cold last. Just a snap or a longer spell???

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/ireland/

With Irish sea Temperatures about 12c. We will see big beefy Snow Showers pounding the Irish sea coast line.

onmebike

Captain Snow wrote: »

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/ireland/

With Irish sea Temperatures about 12c. We will see big beefy Snow Showers pounding the Irish sea coast line.

Is that air temperatures at sea or the water temperature? Dublin Bay is showing 7.9 at the moment.

https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy/status/948160292281901056

Captain Snow

onmebike wrote: »

Is that air temperatures at sea or the water temperature? Dublin Bay is showing 7.9 at the moment.

https://twitter.com/DublinBayBuoy/status/948160292281901056

Sea Temperatures.

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

If netweather had been around in 1962/63, some of those guys would have been looking to the breakdown in March. They would also complain if a 2 foot snowstorm was about to hit, they'd give you the impression it was was going to be nothing because it might miss their backyard.
That said as we all know things can go pear shaped at the last minute. I recall the infamous eastleries that never was back in December 2012. With two or three days to go the models flipped to a zonal outlook. However it does look like we will have a north easterly of some sort over the weekend.
After that i would not like to bet on what happens.

Gaoth Laidir

Coastal waters are below 10 degrees, but up around 11 in mid Irish Sea.

pistolpetes11

derekon wrote: »

I fully expect the whole thing to go belly up , already the cold is being watered down with a wee tweak here and there, ref comments on Netweather

Been here too many times with respect to possible snow in Ireland - whatever can go wrong will go wrong due to the VERY marginal nature of snow in Ireland

Expect downgrades later today

D

Please keep this thread for actual model discussion, or posting of charts whichever way the weather turns

sryanbruen

Another amazing run from the ECM with the 12z today! That's 3 consecutive fantastic runs.

nagdefy

If only the GFS would get it's act together! A bit underwhelming 12Z. I was really fearing an ECM climb down..