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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

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Meteorite58

The ECM was showing some very stormy weather towards the end of next week but has dropped it on the latest run , an outlier perhaps or just a change in its outlook which looks to turn back to a SW'ly air flow again.

The GFS continues to show some windy weather at the end of the week and the following week ( well into FI ) showing a continuation of unsettled weather and maybe that storm that MT keeps mentioning.

f8gj1Yr.gif?1

Note: Very far out in FI, could all change in a couple of runs !

eeDawlD.gif?1

Meteorite58

Latest runs suggest 3 big storms that are currently showing up in early Jan take a more Northerly route keeping the strongest winds off the NW coast.

The nearest one on the 1st 2nd of Jan. Must be noted that in general the models have been showing a lot of downgrades recently.

TtbDWtU.gif?1

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/945022588228599810

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/945001482298052609

That is some cold forecast in the US. Looks like a fired up Jet on this side of the Atlantic,

sryanbruen

My friend, who is about the same age as me, and is from Britain, started work on this little project of his which he calls Monday Ahead and it's a slideshow of what the models/ensembles have been showing. Here's his first one he did today and I've got to say, I'm very impressed and feel that it is better than anything I've ever produced.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1JuQKJifWU-bdFvQ3BRLk9YPOshNzSwJuUsuXBNCuvdA/edit#slide=id.g2cb6408380_0_8

downwiththatsor

sryanbruen wrote: »

My friend, who is about the same age as me, and is from Britain, started work on this little project of his which he calls Monday Ahead and it's a slideshow of what the models/ensembles have been showing. Here's his first one he did today and I've got to say, I'm very impressed and feel that it is better than anything I've ever produced.

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1JuQKJifWU-bdFvQ3BRLk9YPOshNzSwJuUsuXBNCuvdA/edit#slide=id.g2cb6408380_0_8

Only 192hrs to go

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017122812/gfs-2-186.png?12

ninebeanrows

Certainly looks like it will be a turbulent few days

Going to turn windy from tonight in the west and then we watch two features...

One crosses early Saturday-- currently likely to be off north coast but a variety of solutions offered.

And now i notice a trend to pick up a feature into Sunday morning, 8/20 GEFS members show a vigorous storm depression over Ireland..

Example below---certainly a bit of interest over the coming days....

nacho libre

If only these features would track further south we might be in line for an epic snowfall. Still some chances of transient snow here in the next 10 days.
Longer term, I notice the uk met office have mentioned a possible pattern change in mid January, although confidence in that is low.

Kermit.de.frog

Models hinting that an easterly or northeasterly may be on the cards sooner rather than later this morning.

I'm liking those height rises to the north.

nacho libre

What would be great to see is the azores high, which is slightly displaced, eventually linking up with an arctic high, unfortunately the upstream pattern doesn't favour that or a hlb at present , so it looks like that ridge on the gfs chart would be quickly shunted away by the lobe of vortex nearby- essentially a rinse and repeat of what we've had so far this winter. Hopefully, the UK Met Office firm up on the idea of a real pattern change later in January

George Sunsnow

This is the UKMO 12Z 144 and looking at it you can’t blame them for thinking most likely a proper cold pattern change can you? with lows on a trajectory from W Greenland to the med,pressure slack or rising behind and to the east nothing to trip this up

If the energy from the super cold North America takes that route,Spain’s wet and windy days ahead are a small price to pay for some sort of bitter northeasterly on our shores are they?

Just saying

kneemos

George Sunsnow wrote: »

This is the UKMO 12Z 144 and looking at it you can’t blame them for thinking most likely a proper cold pattern change can you? with lows on a trajectory from W Greenland to the med,pressure slack or rising behind and to the east nothing to trip this up

If the energy from the super cold North America takes that route,Spain’s wet and windy days ahead are a small price to pay for some sort of bitter northeasterly on our shores are they?

Just saying

Portugal were praying for a wet winter apparently due to a prolonged drought.

George Sunsnow

kneemos wrote: »

Portugal were praying for a wet winter apparently due to a prolonged drought.

Tonight’s Ecm is in balance enough with that UKMO such that Portugal mightn’t be worrying about rain for a while

It continues the theme of sending that North America energy SE allowing very interesting surges SW towards us from the NE , all In ,what’s not to be positive about if you’re a coldie

Kermit.de.frog

There is good agreement on the initiation of a change among the main models in the next 7 - 9 days. A rise in pressure to our north and more southerly tracking jet stream - question really is longevity and potency of the change.

Anyhow encouraging for now if you like proper winter weather

JCX BXC

Around the 6th is looking nice, let's get that into the reliable range now

Kermit.de.frog

Models a little topsy turvey this morning. Overall trend toward a pattern change is still there.

GEM best of the lot, ECM not out yet

gem-0-186.png?00

nacho libre

A 1045 mb scandi high looks impressive, but i doubt we will hang on to it long enough to advect colder air our way. It could be we will see colder 850 hpa temps from a northwesterly than through this. Who knows for sure, though.

Kermit.de.frog

Solid enough output again. UKMO lining up well. GFS op run never quite gets going for us but the ensembles are awesome

It's on but going to test our patience.

Cantona's Collars

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Solid enough output again. UKMO lining up well. GFS op run never quite gets going for us but the ensembles are awesome

It's on but going to test our patience.

UKMO were bullish about this last night.

nacho libre

The ECM has the high quickly collapsing, with our old friend back in charge soon after:(
The form horse still looks to be transient snow events over the next couple of weeks.

Rebelbrowser

This is corresponding with one of Buchans cold spells which I have always had a little bit of faith in however mad that might seem.

ZX7R

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

This is corresponding with one of Buchans cold spells which I have always had a little bit of faith in however mad that might seem.

First time of hearing of him had to Google him, some very interesting stuff about him, it would be interesting to see how many of our warm and colder spells matched his times over the years

Rebelbrowser

ZX7R wrote: »

First time of hearing of him had to Google him, some very interesting stuff about him, it would be interesting to see how many of our warm and colder spells matched his times over the years

Brendan McWilliams in the Irish Times would often talk of him. The 1987 and 1991 easterlies both corresponded with his cold spells.

gerrybhoy

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

This is corresponding with one of Buchans cold spells which I have always had a little bit of faith in however mad that might seem.

Who's the fella Buchan?

Rebelbrowser

gerrybhoy wrote: »

Who's the fella Buchan?

Guy Ive been misquoting now I look again! According to the BBC "...Alexander Buchan was a meteorologist born in Scotland in the 19th century.

He was the first person to use a weather map as the basis of weather forecasting and using statistical methods he developed the so-called 'Buchan spells' - either cold or warm spells that he claimed happened at roughly the same time each year.

The first cold spell is in the week leading up to Valentine's day - the next one is around the second week of April. The first Buchan warm spell is in the second week of July.

The Buchan cold spells are:

7 to 14 February

11 - 14 April

9 - 14 May

29 June - 4 July

6 - 11 August

6 - 13 November

The Buchan warm spells are:

12 - 15 July

12 - 15 August

3 - 14 December".

I always thought he had a cold spell around 7 to 12 Jan too but apparently I was wrong - all of which renders my initial observation completely incorrect!

MJohnston

Possible Eleanor on Thursday:

tak8PEl_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

sword1

MJohnston wrote: »

Possible Eleanor on Thursday:

A Ford mustang
😉😉

George Sunsnow

The 144 chart from this evenings ECM 12Z
Enjoy

nagdefy

This winter reminds me a little of 2008/2009. That January we had a lot of cold Atlantic weather with some snowfalls. Then regime change from the east at the start of February and more widespread wintry weather for a weak. Sryan has stated on a few fora that the SSW of late January shortened that wintry spell.

The Christmas period from Christmas Day to New Years Day this year is the coldest since 2009. Remember the thaw came Stephen's Day 2010 and it was relatively mild to New Years.

Another cold Christmas to New Years was 1996. This day 21 years ago it snowed heavily at home and across a lot of the country. Some of the local die hard party animals travelled the 8 miles to Carlow town by tractor rather than miss their big night out!! Yours truly said feck that, i wasn't going to pull smelling of cow sh*t. The interior of the tractor would have been messy enough and you'd destroy your clothes.

Donegal Storm

First interesting run in quite a while in terms of real cold weather. Still doesn't deliver much with no cold pool anywhere to tap into but its been a good three weeks since we've seen anything but westerlies forecast. An interesting few days ahead before then as well with plenty of active weather

George Sunsnow

Donegal Storm wrote: »

First interesting run in quite a while in terms of real cold weather. Still doesn't deliver much with no cold pool anywhere to tap into but its been a good three weeks since we've seen anything but westerlies forecast. An interesting few days ahead before then as well with plenty of active weather

There’s a huge cold pool over the snowfields of Scandinavia ,not to mention northeast of there
None over Europe yet but at the darkest time of winter,cold air advection from Russia/siberia is looming in Synoptics like these if they continue as the UK met office reckon they will
All win win really,a bite at the pie for everyone and possibly belly fulls at times