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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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Elmer Blooker

I'm surprised I'm the first to comment on the very disturbed charts on show this morning. It looks likes Iberia, France and the Channel could take a real battering at what is a very busy time for travel. There are no high tides at this time which should prevent serious coastal flooding in our parts.
Lets hope those deep lows don't track further north if it even happens.

gfs-0-204.png?6

Villain

ECM is painting a different story but has been flipping and flopping in last few runs

Captain Snow

Cold Wintery Christmas day...

A potential storm the day after...

Scandi High building pushing the Atlantic back temporarily.

Anything can happen next...

I just don't know anymore...my minds melted.

Meteorite58

Some tight isobars still showing up in the ECM at times. Looking unsettled. Probably windy and wet for a few days at least.

Cool and wintry showers perhaps Christmas day before winds swing around more S'ly

Captain Snow

We have seen the last 2 GFS runs show a bit of cold wintery weather in FI so I think tonights 18z could be off the wall.:D

Captain Snow

Different but transient

Meteorite58

Well the GFS has upped the ante on it's latest run showing a very windy event late 25th into the 26th over Ireland and showing a fast moving depression/ storm around the 28th, presently with strongest winds tracking to the S of Ireland. Of course this is evolving and will look different over the next few days and may upgrade or downgrade but it has been showing windy/ possibly stormy weather now over the last few days for the days following Christmas day.

As the US moves into the freezer over the coming days a powerful jet kicks off from W to E which seems to be the driving force behind the potential storms.

Meteorite58

A long way off but worth keeping an eye on it to see how it evolves one way or the other.

Meteorite58

Interesting to see if this potential cold event in the US will have a bearing on our weather.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/942884801173913602

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/942885179948982273

sumtings

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Interesting to see if this potential cold event in the US will have a bearing on our weather.

Thanks, what would the likely effect be, with that setup, on our weather?

Villain

Hmm that kind of setup in US usually results in mild muck here

George Sunsnow

Villain wrote: »

Hmm that kind of setup in US usually results in mild muck here

Certainly that amount of cold air pouring out of North America into the Atlantic gave us all the storms and flooding rains 2 or 3 years ago

pad199207

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Certainly that amount of cold air pouring out of North America into the Atlantic gave us all the storms and flooding rains 2 or 3 years ago

Yeah 2013/2014. Last time serious cold like that coming out of the US resulted in Darwin and Christine to name but a few. Each were fairly brutal.

PukkaStukka

sumtings wrote: »

Thanks, what would the likely effect be, with that setup, on our weather?

Ideally what we want is that cold toppling down on us, not into the states. Otherwise it's a waste of good cold as far as we're concerned

Donegal Storm

Yeah once cold air is entrenched in the eastern half of the US it's usually zonality all the way for us, looking at the charts at the moment I think watching things unfold in North America will be the only interesting thing about the weather for the coming week, potentially getting down to -30C in some major cities for Christmas over there

The PV is still a bit of a mess but as has been the recurring theme so far this winter, the real cold is staying far away from Europe

Captain Snow

Not so cold Christmas day on todays 12zz.

Meteorite58

sumtings wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Interesting to see if this potential cold event in the US will have a bearing on our weather.

Thanks, what would the likely effect be, with that setup, on our weather?

Yea as others have said you would expect some stormy/ and possibly wet weather on this side of the Atlantic.

ECM/ GFS showing frontal passage on Christmas day with wet and windy weather .

The latest runs by the GFS and ECM have toned down the stormy look for the 26th ( has some strong winds off the S and SW coasts ). After that no end of LP systems giving wet and windy weather at times it would seem. The track, timing and strength all over the place atm, but looks like plenty of fronts passing over the country.

Showing NW'lys the 27th and 28th on the GFS and showing cold uppers moving over us so possibly wintry precip next week at times also.

Colder from late Mon 25th showing at the moment. Looking like cold daytime temperatures and frosty nights in places.

Meteorite58

You would never know ! :pac:

SeaBreezes

You already know if your from cork, only a minor miracle gets snow to us...

Meteorite58 wrote: »

You would never know ! :pac:

Captain Snow

Possible snowy period for some on higher ground 25th to the 27th with possible high winds.

sryanbruen

Captain Snow wrote: »

Possible snowy period for some on higher ground 25th to the 27th with possible high winds.

Captain Snow

Stronger Arctic High pressure. Jet slightly further south. Colder side of the jet on our side more often. Too many complex lows forming off the tip of Greenland. It takes one to punch into Europe become a slider and bingo, the north cold flood gates could open up.

High Pressure split in the south. Rest of the run is interesting. Tonights 18zz might throw out a few cold scenarios.

PukkaStukka

Joan Blackburn on RTE Radio 1 teatime forecast mentioned possibility of disturbed weather between Christmas and New Year. She didn't elaborate though...

squarecircles

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Joan Blackburn on RTE Radio 1 teatime forecast mentioned possibility of disturbed weather between Christmas and New Year. She didn't elaborate though...

Yes and they deliberately seem to not forecast beyond Christmas eve for the last number of days,as this is the start of a highly volatile period.

DOCARCH

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Joan Blackburn on RTE Radio 1 teatime forecast mentioned possibility of disturbed weather between Christmas and New Year. She didn't elaborate though...

I hope she did not mean more disturbingly mild weather!

Captain Snow

Polar Votex split.....lol

Looking like a cool to cold end of December and New Year.

Captain Snow

The worst 18z I have ever seen. Jumbled up in something. No rhyme or rhythm to it. Not even a mad crazy pub run end to it. :rolleyes:

NickNickleby

Hi everyone, can I ask a question?

I've seen the words "pub run" on a few occasions and don't know what that means. Would someone kindly enlighten me. I've a feeling its a non-technical , banter type of phrase, (or is it?? :eek:)

Thanks in advance, and thanks to all the really interesting contributors on here. Weather is so much more interesting when you see the technicalities involved in forecasting. It goes without saying (based on my question above) that quite a bit of it just flies over me head. But I still enjoy reading it all.

Cheers
Nick

Villain

NickNickleby wrote: »

Hi everyone, can I ask a question?

I've seen the words "pub run" on a few occasions and don't know what that means. Would someone kindly enlighten me. I've a feeling its a non-technical , banter type of phrase, (or is it?? :eek:)

Thanks in advance, and thanks to all the really interesting contributors on here. Weather is so much more interesting when you see the technicalities involved in forecasting. It goes without saying (based on my question above) that quite a bit of it just flies over me head. But I still enjoy reading it all.

Cheers
Nick

It's the 18z run that comes out around the time people go to the pub and is often known to produce charts that look like the weather models have been on the beer!

NickNickleby

Villain wrote: »

It's the 18z run that comes out around the time people go to the pub and is often known to produce charts that look like the weather models have been on the beer!

Thanks Villain, appreciate that.

a bit more enlightened,
Nick