Fancies For Today III

I do not know if Wol will go ahead,if it does I would be interested in Zenovia in the 4 20.

Simcock had Zenovia on a good mark before the horse went to Archie Watson after 4 runs ,two over 8 furlongs and two over 10 furongs.

Two more runs over 7 furlongs got the horse down to 55 and he duly won over 6 furlongs.Has been kept to that trip and following a nice quiet run at Southwell Zenovia is ready to win again.

hots

zimmermania wrote: »

I do not know if Wol will go ahead,if it does I would be interested in Zenovia in the 4 20.

Simcock had Zenovia on a good mark before the horse went to Archie Watson after 4 runs ,two over 8 furlongs and two over 10 furongs.

Two more runs over 7 furlongs got the horse down to 55 and he duly won over 6 furlongs.Has been kept to that trip and following a nice quiet run at Southwell Zenovia is ready to win again.

I've just had all of my wol bets refunded with PP, doesn't look good I would guess.

zimmermania wrote: »

I do not know if Wol will go ahead,if it does I would be interested in Zenovia in the 4 20.

Simcock had Zenovia on a good mark before the horse went to Archie Watson after 4 runs ,two over 8 furlongs and two over 10 furongs.

Two more runs over 7 furlongs got the horse down to 55 and he duly won over 6 furlongs.Has been kept to that trip and following a nice quiet run at Southwell Zenovia is ready to win again.

Goes at 2 15 Wol and should win.

x PyRo

It's still inconclusive as to whether Kadrizzi actually gets 7f and his career wins have come in sprints, but he was rated between 95 & 101 on each of his four handicap outings at this trip and I think it's worth taking a punt on him staying off 87 today. He's definitely well-treated on the best of his form last term, which included a win at Ascot off 97, and probably needed that latest run at Newcastle when running without any form of headgear. Cheekpieces go back on (finished second in them when worn for the first time last April following a C&D 5th off 100; beaten 2-lengths), he's down a further 3lbs in the weights and Jack Duern hops up to remove the same again. They're well drawn, too, and any double-figured price is worth a shot at in my book.

Argus is a huge price in the finale at Kempton and could cause a surprise on his All-Weather debut. The 5-year-old won 3 of his first 5 starts for Ralph Beckett as a 3-year-old but didn't go on from that and subsequently joined Alexandra Dunn to go hurdling a year ago. Bar winning a mediocre four-runner novices' race, he hasn't cut much ice in that code but showed some flat ability remained in place at Chepstow in September, finishing fifth and only beaten a few lengths. That adds cause for optimism with regard to today's race and I'm interested to see taking the hood off will liven him up even further. The likelihood is that this will be a prep to have him spot on for something over timber but you never know. And he's 33/1!

Lingfield:
2:00 - Kadrizzi - 1.50pts @ 11/1 (General)

Kempton:
7:10 - Argus - 1pt @ 33/1 (General)

Gorgeous should win the 1 45 at Wolverhampton 11 to 4

I was told Molineaux is well fancied for the 2 10 Taunton.I backed it with him PP ew as they areven paying 4 places.

After his run on the 5th of march 2016 I wrote here that Abe Lincln who finished 10th was a most unlucky loser and should be backed next time,he was hampered again next time finishing 5th in a class2 handicap at YORK,he was beaten a short head at a huge price in Royal Ascot in june in a field of 28.

Off for a full year he started fav for the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot,finishing 15th beaten 6 lengths and started 2nd fav for a good handicap in York where he disappointed again finishing 13th of 14 in july.The horse has not run since and goes in the 7 15 at Chelmsford,i backed it at 9/2 ew as I think Noseda would not hang on to the horse unless he was sure it would win races.

zimmermania wrote: »

After his run on the 5th of march 2016 I wrote here that Abe Lincln who finished 10th was a most unlucky loser and should be backed next time,he was hampered again next time finishing 5th in a class2 handicap at YORK,he was beaten a short head at a huge price in Royal Ascot in june in a field of 28.

Off for a full year he started fav for the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot,finishing 15th beaten 6 lengths and started 2nd fav for a good handicap in York where he disappointed again finishing 13th of 14 in july.The horse has not run since and goes in the 7 15 at Chelmsford,i backed it at 9/2 ew as I think Noseda would not hang on to the horse unless he was sure it would win races.

Hung out to the centre of the track but managed to get 3rd to save the stake,showed enough for me to think he can win races and might show up at Ling on good Friday.

Having a double on two that I've been following in recent times, Tawaeef (2:20) and Ben Rumson (8:00). Double is around 13/1 currently

Long time lurker here, thanks for the tips Zimmer and co.

One I really fancy in Cheltenham today is Robinsfirth in the 2:30 for Colin Tizzard. Priced at 9/4 currently. Robbie Power goes over to ride this horse again like he did in Haydock 3 weeks ago. Got badly hampered at the first and was 10 lengths out the back for the majority of the race. Came upsides the winner 4 out tanking, but made a bad mistake at the next. That was on heavy ground and I don't think he really got home on it. Hopefully with the ground soft and soft-good in places he will stay out the trip. A lot of money came for him the last day from 6/1 in 5/2 so they will be looking to get it back today.

onepaced158 wrote: »

Long time lurker here, thanks for the tips Zimmer and co.

One I really fancy in Cheltenham today is Robinsfirth in the 2:30 for Colin Tizzard. Priced at 9/4 currently. Robbie Power goes over to ride this horse again like he did in Haydock 3 weeks ago. Got badly hampered at the first and was 10 lengths out the back for the majority of the race. Came upsides the winner 4 out tanking, but made a bad mistake at the next. That was on heavy ground and I don't think he really got home on it. Hopefully with the ground soft and soft-good in places he will stay out the trip. A lot of money came for him the last day from 6/1 in 5/2 so they will be looking to get it back today.

nicely done many thanks. Anyone know if you backed it at 9/4 before mysteree came out do you still get the 9/4?

akelly02 wrote: »

nicely done many thanks. Anyone know if you backed it at 9/4 before mysteree came out do you still get the 9/4?

No problem lads, nice to start here with a winner.

No there will be a rule 4 on the 9/4 which will be 15p in the pound. You shouldn't lose too much though.

onepaced158 wrote: »

No problem lads, nice to start here with a winner.

No there will be a rule 4 on the 9/4. You shouldn't lose too much though.

Thanks a million

Seems to be a lot of support for JPs in the 8:00 unfortunately

redzerdrog

I like the look of Foxtail Hill in the 13:55 at Cheltenham tomorrow I think 14/1 is a decent e/w bet. Betfair also paying 4 places in the race

King Kevin steps up two furlongs to a mile and a half,when he won last time I suggested he could win again and while I did not envisage the step up to a mile and a half.

However his style of running (held up) and his good turn of foot should enable him to win again up 4 lbs in an ordinary enough race,having Havlin on board is a bonus as he knows the horse well.Goes in the 3 oc Newcastle.

One at a much bigger price (14/1 generally) that keeps running on strongly over 6 furlongs and not quite getting there in recent times is Eccleston,has won a few strongly run races over 6 but seems to want further and I was hoping they would try the horse over 7 furlongs.

Rated 83 now and was rated 104 one time and has won a class 2 off 88 and two class 3s off 90 and 91.Has run two solid races for new trainer Julie Camacho and if I am correct that Eccleston needs 7 furlongs nowdays he is something to bet on in the 8 45 at Wolverhampton.

I am having a good ew bet at 14s and hoping to get the xmas dosh.

Bundoran 1:20 in Cheltenham 3/1. Unexposed over fences and upped in trip tomorrow. Backed it this time last year in Newcastle in handicap chase and travelled and jumped like a dream. I don't think this race is particularly strong and Ciaran Gethings claiming 3 is a big plus. Has run in graded company previously so if anything near that level will be very hard to beat.

Just one more,Watersmeet in the 1 15 Newcastle has a very good opportunity,Mountain Bell is fav with some bookies but is not certain to stay and even if he does stay he will find Watersmeet a tough one to beat.

Reckless Endeavour e/w in the 4:05. Decent run first time for new yard a couple of weeks ago after being slowly away. Won a few times for Ger Lyons in the past, most recently in Dundalk in September. Currently drifting, out to 15/2, appealing e/w bet.

x PyRo

Pastime proved very disappointing at Chelmsford a few weeks ago but had a far from ideal trip from a poor draw and was ridden handier than he would care for (I want to see him held up with cover here). Coming back to Newcastle's tapeta surface over the C&D of his impressive victory in June could spark him back to life and I think we'll see a much better performance this time around. At Wolverhampton, Dolphin Village is given another chance. He moved quite well over C&D last time out when we backed him and although he failed to finish the race off properly after trading as low as 5/2, today's contest represents another drop in grade. It's the first time he tackles Class 6 company and with Ben Curtis replacing an apprentice, it's worth playing the 11/1. Swift Emperor never got involved here a couple of weeks back but faced an uphill battle after missing the kick and didn't run horribly in the circumstances. Previous to that, he had run to a decent level on turf when second at York and fifth at Redcar, and a replication of either run would see him involved here. He has won on tapeta before and, indeed, won cosily off this mark (86) when last taking in a Class 4 race in March. Whether he's currently tuned to that level, I'm not sure, but if he is then he's seriously overpriced.

Newcastle:
4:05 - Pastime - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)

Wolverhampton:
7:45 - Dolphin Village - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)
8:15 - Swift Emperor - 1.50pts @ 12/1 (General)

zimmermania wrote: »

King Kevin steps up two furlongs to a mile and a half,when he won last time I suggested he could win again and while I did not envisage the step up to a mile and a half.

However his style of running (held up) and his good turn of foot should enable him to win again up 4 lbs in an ordinary enough race,having Havlin on board is a bonus as he knows the horse well.Goes in the 3 oc Newcastle.

One at a much bigger price (14/1 generally) that keeps running on strongly over 6 furlongs and not quite getting there in recent times is Eccleston,has won a few strongly run races over 6 but seems to want further and I was hoping they would try the horse over 7 furlongs.

Rated 83 now and was rated 104 one time and has won a class 2 off 88 and two class 3s off 90 and 91.Has run two solid races for new trainer Julie Camacho and if I am correct that Eccleston needs 7 furlongs nowdays he is something to bet on in the 8 45 at Wolverhampton.

I am having a good ew bet at 14s and hoping to get the xmas dosh.

The 2 I backed ran ok but both beaten and at least I have the value with Eccleston at 14s and I am hoping to see him come late and take the 8 45.

Coronation Day has been running well and with Luke Morris on board is an ew bet at 7 15 Wol.

Bundoran finished second by about a length, thought he was a winner 3 out but tired up the hill.

I will make the trip to Thurles tomorrow, and there is one horse that really interests me. The horse is Mallowney for local trainer Tim Doyle in the 2:40 and is currently priced at 16/1 with PP. This horse hacked up in graded company over fences previously and is 20 lb lower over hurdles. He has been off the track since a poor run in Clonmel 2 years and the ground won't be an issue either as he has won on heavy and 2m is the perfect trip. I wouldn't go too mad as it could be his final run but if this horse has any of his old spark he will be very hard to beat. Definitely worth a bet each way at 16/1 with PP currently. Is 12s and 14s with majority of other firms.

MyStubbleItches

x PyRo wrote: »

Pastime proved very disappointing at Chelmsford a few weeks ago but had a far from ideal trip from a poor draw and was ridden handier than he would care for (I want to see him held up with cover here). Coming back to Newcastle's tapeta surface over the C&D of his impressive victory in June could spark him back to life and I think we'll see a much better performance this time around. At Wolverhampton, Dolphin Village is given another chance. He moved quite well over C&D last time out when we backed him and although he failed to finish the race off properly after trading as low as 5/2, today's contest represents another drop in grade. It's the first time he tackles Class 6 company and with Ben Curtis replacing an apprentice, it's worth playing the 11/1. Swift Emperor never got involved here a couple of weeks back but faced an uphill battle after missing the kick and didn't run horribly in the circumstances. Previous to that, he had run to a decent level on turf when second at York and fifth at Redcar, and a replication of either run would see him involved here. He has won on tapeta before and, indeed, won cosily off this mark (86) when last taking in a Class 4 race in March. Whether he's currently tuned to that level, I'm not sure, but if he is then he's seriously overpriced.

Newcastle:
4:05 - Pastime - 1.50pts @ 6/1 (General)

Wolverhampton:
7:45 - Dolphin Village - 1pt @ 11/1 (General)
8:15 - Swift Emperor - 1.50pts @ 12/1 (General)

Many thanks pyro.

x PyRo

Plucky Dip used to run to a mark between 80 & 82 frequently but hasn't shown that level of form in quite a while and that's worrying. He has, however, now dropped to 70 and that's a very attractive rating, particularly with Jack Osborn taking off another 7lbs with his claim. The question is whether the horse is in the form required to take advantage but he didn't run too badly (despite being beaten a fair margin; winner scored comfortably) when third over 7f at Chelmsford last month and that form took a boost with the runner-up, Samphire Coast, winning since. Over the came C&D, Plucky Dip flopped next time when upped in grade but had a poor draw in stall 13 and was dropped right out towards the rear. The pace help up as is often the case at that track and whilst he did pass a few rivals in the straight, he simply had no chance of getting anywhere near the leaders. This is a major drop in grade (0-85 to a 0-70) and trip (last win over 6f), and I have a feeling he'll be primed to strike in the not too distant future, hopefully today. Handier tactics than those at play lately might be needed but he has been granted a perfect drawn in stall 2 and is more than good enough to be a major threat to all. I've missed the fancier prices that were around this morning but can't let him go unbacked.

Wolverhampton:
3:10 - Plucky Dip - 1.50pts @ 7/1 (General)

O mearas in the last zimmer, surely??

superfurry1

Gone for middlecreek.

akelly02 wrote: »

O mearas in the last zimmer, surely??

piling into this now. i got 15/8 into evens .

please god it does the business !

akelly02 wrote: »

piling into this now. i got 15/8 into evens .

please god it does the business !

no good

Sgt Pepper 64

akelly02 wrote: »

piling into this now. i got 15/8 into evens .

please god it does the business !

word of advice...never pile into anything, especially something at a low price, you have bet silly money to anything like a decent return
plus very often punters go like sheep, like they did on the short price fave on sunday beaten by a 200-1 shot

another example is the unfortunate starchitect..i was one of many counting my winnings when it took a tumble when in the clear

decide on a set stake and stick to that.
for example a tenner on anything 5-1 and under or a tenner e/w on 6-1 and over

i think that faves on AW have the lowest win rate of any surface
https://www.racingpost.com/profile/course/513/wolverhampton-aw/favourites

pure shores, the winner, was also the RP postdata pick on form, ability and RPR
always worth a check

i know its no good to you now, but perhaps in the future.
Also look in the timeform hack i posted previously, they had a 10-1 winner, and a 6-1 winner