M.T. Cranium wrote: » The good synoptics for snow don't begin until that first low dives southeast, it will be the second low forecast to track into Clare then southeast to Cork that does most of the business in terms of providing moisture and lift, but as the first low moves past Cork areas to the north of the frontal boundary should see a rapid changeover from sleet or freezing drizzle to snow. This slow rise in temps around the south and southeast coasts is not surprising and won't be much of a determining factor. The M6 buoy was briefly in the warm sector of this first low and hit 11 C, I would not be surprised if Valentia and Sherkin Island get almost that warm for an hour or two as it slides past (maybe this next hour or two). The heavier snow will begin after midnight and more likely around 0300h to noon in central counties, then as the system loses access to Atlantic warmth the second low will start to get surrounded by sleet or wet snow so even the south coast could end the event with a coating. My Dublin forecasts have been quoted here but let's be realistic, this is a very tricky scenario and getting the right elevation for rain-snow boundary is difficult, I had to choose a number so I chose 150m, but it could very well be 100m to 200m. One variable to watch in later model runs would be the exact track and intensity of the second low (there are even hints of a third low although it's more of a hangback trough). Every millibar we can get this second low to drop will be worth a cm of snow in the snowfall zones.
Lucreto wrote: » Nothing in Naas yet. It's not even raining.
fits wrote: » Not a smidgen of it in South carlow. West of the blackstairs
DOCARCH wrote: » The icy/bloby rain has now turned to sleet in Dublin 16. G'wan! 1.4c DP 0.7c atm.
barney 20v wrote: » We're on the east side and its snowing heavily
fits wrote: » Whereabouts? I’m in Ballymurphy.
M.T. Cranium wrote: » For Dublin I would expect oscillations in the rain-snow divide elevation, depends on how hard the precip is falling to some extent (to get the snow globules down low enough before they melt). The same will be true in Meath and northeast Kildare. South and west of a pseudo-warm front that will push in from the Irish Sea, all snow and heavy at times. Most likely orientation for that is north Kildare down western slopes or spine of higher ground in Wicklow then curving around to join up with the frontal zone now pushed fairly close to the south coast east of Waterford. In the southwest, it's a case of the second low drifting into the mess and failing to push back hard enough to move the fronts, which will slowly encircle that low with colder air, changing over the precip from rain to sleet then snow by early afternoon. Would appreciate any ground reports from south central Galway, Athenry has had over 10 mm of liquid equivalent overnight, wondering if that is partly or all snow.
