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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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ninebeanrows

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Is that the same one as yesterday that had large swathes of the midland well covered in Snow , the colouring seems a bit different but it was definitely an ECM chart ?

I just lifted it off their facebook group - https://www.facebook.com/MeteoGroupUK/

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

This is the latest 12z ECMWF snow accum chart using their algorithm - don't shoot the messenger :pac:

Yeah but seriously 2cm’s on the Wicklow mountains,ermmmm how credible do you think that is?

(Not very)

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

This is the latest 12z ECMWF snow accum chart using their algorithm - don't shoot the messenger :pac:

Is that the same one as yesterday that had large swathes of the midland well covered in Snow , the colouring seems a bit different but it was definitely an ECM chart ?

ninebeanrows

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Let’s play a agame of letters on that one

Give me an L
Give me an O
Give me another L

They provide the information for the BBC forecasts
Note the BBC forecasters eg Schaffenacker are Met office or former met office staff
Their human input maps do not look anything like the above

This is the latest 12z ECMWF snow accum chart using their algorithm - don't shoot the messenger :pac:

Meteorite58

Mod Note:

Keep it civil. This is a busy thread and attempts to derail it will not be tolerated.

pad199207

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Anyone know what Kildare is expected to be like tomorrow thank you !

Should be interesting!

Mr.Crinklewood

matc66 wrote: »

Where are the highest elevations within Dublin city and therefore the likeliest to have snow cover?

The spire.

matc66

Where are the highest elevations within Dublin city and therefore the likeliest to have snow cover?

fraxinus1

CeilingFly wrote: »

Can you state your expertise in metrology that gives you such a standing that you can question experts?

I've very little knowledge, but I do know that Ireland has some of the most changeable weather in the world. Atmosphere is constantly moving, the Atlantic and the coastal mountains can mean last minute changes especially in volatile systems such as this.

Its also why its called a "forecast" not a "certainty"

It’s this type of response that annoys me. They are experts, they are paid to get things correct. By your reckoning no one can question them unless they themselves are meteorologists?

George Sunsnow

Weathercheck wrote: »

Interesting to see where MeteoGroups product places the snowfall accumulations by tomorrow

Let’s play a agame of letters on that one

Give me an L
Give me an O
Give me another L

They provide the information for the BBC forecasts
Note the BBC forecasters eg Schaffenacker are Met office or former met office staff
Their human input maps do not look anything like the above

prosaic

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

How many times have met eireann changed their forecast today!!?? You would really think within 12-24 hours they could have nailed it down better. I mean changing forecast about 5 hours before the so called event is pretty bad. I know there are variables at play but they surely have access to a lot of weather models, you would expect a met service to be able to predict better within 24 hours. We will see what happens from here but it’s been like musical chairs today moving warning from one county to another. You would most certainly expect it 2 or more days out but not within 12-24 hours

Think of a game of roulette: one ball, a wheel with sharp edged slots that cause the ball to bounce in near random directions. Take a high speed, high resolution camera, super processing power, will you get the right answer while the ball is commencing it's journey?
Now, the weather is billions of times more complex than that (I'm guessing).

Speak Now

The only place is see consistently forecast to get a massive snow event is Wales. Some serious disruption for them.

Snowbiee21

Anyone know what Kildare is expected to be like tomorrow thank you !

sryanbruen

PukkaStukka wrote: »

A mixture of 1982 nostalgia and what might have been tomorrow....

http://www.rte.ie/archives/2017/0109/843625-freezing-weather-continues/

I'm loving these historic news/vids posts. Keep 'em coming!

kilkenny31

DellyBelly wrote: »

kilkenny31 wrote: »

How's it looking for South Kilkenny?

Epic. Could be a whiteout

Serious or taking the p**s.

Reati

Temps rising here in wicklow over last hour.

time temp dew point humidity
6:51 PM 0.3 °C -2.2 °C 83 %
6:56 PM 0.3 °C -2.2 °C 83 %
7:02 PM 0.3 °C -2.4 °C 82 %
7:07 PM 0.3 °C -2.4 °C 82 %
7:28 PM 0.5 °C -3.1 °C 77 %
7:34 PM 0.6 °C -2.3 °C 81 %
7:39 PM 0.7 °C -2.9 °C 77 %
7:44 PM 0.8 °C -3.3 °C 74 %
7:49 PM 1.0 °C -2.6 °C 77 %

Sorry about formatting. On phone.

ninebeanrows

Interesting to see where MeteoGroups product places the snowfall accumulations by tomorrow

24991337_10155963012111306_5287618676600967829_n.png?oh=940d29b88265764078af14738e1292bf&oe=5A8E2CE4

24991337_10155963012111306_5287618676600967829_n.png?oh=940d29b88265764078af14738e1292bf&oe=5A8E2CE4

PukkaStukka

A mixture of 1982 nostalgia and what might have been tomorrow....

http://www.rte.ie/archives/2017/0109/843625-freezing-weather-continues/

DellyBelly

kilkenny31 wrote: »

How's it looking for South Kilkenny?

Epic. Could be a whiteout

kilkenny31

How's it looking for South Kilkenny?

George Sunsnow

The UK met office are changing their forecast frequently in this
The U.S met service live change snow forecasts DURING events

So no giving out about the Irish met service in one of the western worlds arguably hardest territories this far north to have a widespread snow event please

noah45

Hope Athlone gets a fair covering

CeilingFly

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

How many times have met eireann changed their forecast today!!?? You would really think within 12-24 hours they could have nailed it down better. I mean changing forecast about 5 hours before the so called event is pretty bad. I know there are variables at play but they surely have access to a lot of weather models, you would expect a met service to be able to predict better within 24 hours. We will see what happens from here but it’s been like musical chairs today moving warning from one county to another. You would most certainly expect it 2 or more days out but not within 12-24 hours

Can you state your expertise in metrology that gives you such a standing that you can question experts?

I've very little knowledge, but I do know that Ireland has some of the most changeable weather in the world. Atmosphere is constantly moving, the Atlantic and the coastal mountains can mean last minute changes especially in volatile systems such as this.

Its also why its called a "forecast" not a "certainty"

George Sunsnow

Currently 0.9c in Arklow co Wicklow
Dew point is -2c
100% cloud cover
Flat calm

Danno

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Wet-bulb temperature is more important. It's just above half way between dew point and temperature (closer to temperature). A wbt of less than zero is needed, though snow can survive up to around +0.5 °C.

If temperature is 4 and then dewpoint needs to be around -5 for the wbt to be around 0.

And here is a good calculator for getting the wetbulb from your humidity, temperature and air pressure: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_rh

Slashermcguirk

sryanbruen wrote: »

You seriously don't understand the difficulty of things like this - or weather in general, do you?

This is hardly the first time we have encountered a snow event. I do understand there are variables at play but they have decades of experience doing this. I am not saying met eireann are poor in general, they are often very reliable but today has been all over the shop.

Danno

Here is a good map to the highly regarded Davis Weather Stations - quite a few across Ireland when you zoom in: http://www.weatherlink.com/map.php

Gaoth Laidir

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Can someone tell me what the ideal dew point is for snow?

Wet-bulb temperature is more important. It's just above half way between dew point and temperature (closer to temperature). A wbt of less than zero is needed, though snow can survive up to around +0.5 °C.

If temperature is 4 and then dewpoint needs to be around -5 for the wbt to be around 0.

rahmalec

Need to get from Cork to Dublin Monday morning. Should I book a train or a bus?

sryanbruen

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

How many times have met eireann changed their forecast today!!?? You would really think within 12-24 hours they could have nailed it down better. I mean changing forecast about 5 hours before the so called event is pretty bad. I know there are variables at play but they surely have access to a lot of weather models, you would expect a met service to be able to predict better within 24 hours. We will see what happens from here but it’s been like musical chairs today moving warning from one county to another. You would most certainly expect it 2 or more days out but not within 12-24 hours

You seriously don't understand the difficulty of things like this - or weather in general, do you?