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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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grenouille1966

http://m.met.ie/forecast-national.aspx

Updated Met forecast. Still forecasting snow for Cannacht and Leinster except South Leinster.

Slashermcguirk

Met eireann just updated their website a few minutes ago. Still going for good snow accumulations in Connaught and northern half of leinster (also on low levels). Looks promising, was expecting a downgrade reading what is on here

Snowbiee21

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met eireann just updated their website a few minutes ago. Still going for good snow accumulations in Connaught and northern half of leinster (also on low levels). Looks promising, was expecting a downgrade reading what is on here

Promising for the midlands and Connacht nothing really Dublinwise apart from cold rain I still see a fair few cm in the likes of Kildare etc

Nettle Soup

In Galway. It just doesn't feel cold enough for snow. It felt right on Thursday afternoon for a short spell but it seemed to get too mild after that. You know that feeling you get when snow is imminent, I just don't have it today and it makes me sad. I hope I am wrong.

jonny_b

No snow for Carlow then just rain

Slashermcguirk

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Promising for the midlands and Connacht nothing really Dublinwise apart from cold rain I still see a fair few cm in the likes of Kildare etc

They still have dublin on their orange warning. Dublin is one of the coldest places today so hard to imagine it is less likely for snow and it’s to be -3 in dublin tonight according to met eireann site.

Granted it might not happen but why would net eireann keep including dublin if they are not expecting it.

That being said met eireann do quite regularly get it wrong

gavkm27

The Bens, Maamturks and Sheefrys will get an absolute pasting tonight:)

gavkm27

Nettle Soup wrote: »

In Galway. It just doesn't feel cold enough for snow. It felt right on Thursday afternoon for a short spell but it seemed to get too mild after that. You know that feeling you get when snow is imminent, I just don't have it today and it makes me sad. I hope I am wrong.

I doubt we will have snow, but Connemara will!

Slashermcguirk

Temps as low as -8 forecast for tomorrow night on met eireann site. Don’t see that too often

grenouille1966

Inland Galway like Tuam, Ballinasloe will get snow but not Galway city. Temperature is currently 4.5 degrees there. The best scenario will be sleet.

Could be the same for Dublin city as well although currently the East is very cold.

I expect some snow in the Western suburbs like Blanchardstown, Ongar, Lucan and Maynooth in Kildare.

Donegal Storm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

They still have dublin on their orange warning. Dublin is one of the coldest places today so hard to imagine it is less likely for snow and it’s to be -3 in dublin tonight according to met eireann site.

Granted it might not happen but why would net eireann keep including dublin if they are not expecting it.

That being said met eireann do quite regularly get it wrong

Higher parts of Dublin towards the mountains will be better placed, there'll be an easterly breeze though which will mix milder air into coastal areas and it'll probably just fall as rain or sleet for much of the city.

Personally I'm still not convinced low ground will see much settling snow, looks very marginal and from my experience these events rarely go as expected or as we hope. Inland Connacht probably the best chance but even there it's looking very marginal. I'll gladly be proven wrong this time tomorrow though

MJohnston

The Orange Warning for Dublin, and indeed most of the country, is a "Snow-Ice" warning, so it easily could remain in place in areas where no snow is expected due to solely to ice.

Hooter23

grenouille1966 wrote: »

Inland Galway like Tuam, Ballinasloe will get snow but not Galway city. Temperature is currently 4.5 degrees there. The best scenario will be sleet.

Could be the same for Dublin city as well although currently the East is very cold.

I expect some snow in the Western suburbs like Blanchardstown, Ongar, Lucan and Maynooth in Kildare.

I think Galway city has just as good a chance of snow as inland areas with wind coming from the east

Clonmel1000

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

They still have dublin on their orange warning. Dublin is one of the coldest places today so hard to imagine it is less likely for snow and it’s to be -3 in dublin tonight according to met eireann site.

Granted it might not happen but why would net eireann keep including dublin if they are not expecting it.

That being said met eireann do quite regularly get it wrong

Met eireann do not regularly get it wrong.

kod87

MJohnston wrote: »

The Orange Warning for Dublin, and indeed most of the country, is a "Snow-Ice" warning, so it easily could remain in place in areas where no snow is expected due to solely to ice.

Yes, a snow/ice warning also does not mean it WILL snow, it just means there is a chance of it so be aware of the possibility

George Sunsnow

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

They still have dublin on their orange warning. Dublin is one of the coldest places today so hard to imagine it is less likely for snow and it’s to be -3 in dublin tonight according to met eireann site.

Granted it might not happen but why would net eireann keep including dublin if they are not expecting it.

That being said met eireann do quite regularly get it wrong

With a wind in off the Irish Sea even high parts of Dublin will struggle to see snow I think
Kildare maybe

Here in Arklow,no chance
All rain
Currently 4.4c dew point -1
Those will rise once the sea wind gets going
Once wind direction changes and if it’s snowing in the part of the precip being pulled down as the low pulls away then there’s a chance
It’s small though

Tonight’s hirlam and ecm will be helpful

Met É are working off the 0z ecm which has egged the pudding

grenouille1966

Hooter23 wrote: »

I think Galway city has just as good a chance of snow as inland areas with wind coming from the east

Don't think so. Sleet with wet snow. Probably the same for Dublin city centre and coast but snow in Western suburbs.

Temperatures in Galway (coastal) regions are too high.

JCX BXC

Anyone living south of current snow forecasts will be glad to see the latest addition to the ME forecast

"Brighter, mainly dry conditions in Ulster will extend gradually southwards during the afternoon and evening, but it will turn even colder and rain may turn to sleet or snow for a time in the south and southwest later, before finally clearing later in the evening"

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

Anyone living south of current snow forecasts will be glad to see the latest addition to the ME forecast

"Brighter, mainly dry conditions in Ulster will extend gradually southwards during the afternoon and evening, but it will turn even colder and rain may turn to sleet or snow for a time in the south and southwest later, before finally clearing later in the evening"

That’s cold air advection for you
Hopefully so

Slashermcguirk

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Met eireann do not regularly get it wrong.

Eh they do in fairness, I have numerous times canceled trips down the country due to bad forecasts only to find it was sunny! I appreciate though that forecasting is tough.

Let’s see how much snow there is tomorrow across Leinster and Connaught and we can judge. Their job is to forecast as best they can and clearly as of now they are forecasting snow for most of northern Leinster and Connaught (4-8cm)

Will reserve judgement until tomorrow on this one. They should be getting it right now though when it’s only 12-24 hours away.

Discodog

grenouille1966 wrote: »

Don't think so. Sleet with wet snow. Probably the same for Dublin city centre and coast but snow in Western suburbs.

Temperatures in Galway (coastal) regions are too high.

5.1 by the sea

mhiggy09

Anyone tell me the outlook for Cavan?

Clonmel1000

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Eh they do in fairness, I have numerous times canceled trips down the country due to bad forecasts only to find it was sunny! I appreciate though that forecasting is tough.

Let’s see how much snow there is tomorrow across Leinster and Connaught and we can judge. Their job is to forecast as best they can and clearly as of now they are forecasting snow for most of northern Leinster and Connaught (4-8cm)

Will reserve judgement until tomorrow on this one. They should be getting it right now though when it’s only 12-24 hours away.

Well I’ll have to agree to disagree with you here. I find met eireann in the main excellent not prone thankfully to ramping or over exaggerating as is proper for professionals. I’m surprised they are being so bullish about snow tomorrow I hope they are wrong but I’m kinda expecting it now.

Snowbiee21

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Eh they do in fairness, I have numerous times canceled trips down the country due to bad forecasts only to find it was sunny! I appreciate though that forecasting is tough.

Let’s see how much snow there is tomorrow across Leinster and Connaught and we can judge. Their job is to forecast as best they can and clearly as of now they are forecasting snow for most of northern Leinster and Connaught (4-8cm)

Will reserve judgement until tomorrow on this one. They should be getting it right now though when it’s only 12-24 hours away.

It’s easy said but hard done , things change all the time you must understand it’s not a case of giving a warning and then the warning pulling off . Either way I think met eirrean are doing a great job giving out the warning even just as a caution because as other posters said , it will be a nowcast situation .

DominoDub

mhiggy09 wrote: »

Anyone tell me the outlook for Cavan?

Tight !:D

JanuarySnowstor

grenouille1966 wrote: »

Don't think so. Sleet with wet snow. Probably the same for Dublin city centre and coast but snow in Western suburbs.

Temperatures in Galway (coastal) regions are too high.

The temperature now in Galway isn't relevant to what happens later.
Example it's meant to get up to 8 or 9 in South and still snow here tomorrow evening

mafc

mhiggy09 wrote: »

Anyone tell me the outlook for Cavan?

Grim ðŸ˜‚

JCX BXC

West Clare, currently 3.8c with a low of 2.2c last night (second ground frost), is bitter and overcast out!

Danno

I've a feeling that this event will start off as rain/sleet away from high ground but will quickly turn to snow after an hour or two.

Just my 2c.

snowstorm445

Seems like the AROME model has the deepest snow across the South Midlands, Galway down to Carlow/Kilkenny. Parts of high ground in Munster look like they might do well, even Wexford looks like it might get a bit.

Amazing how the models haven’t nailed this down yet. Expect further changes for the 12z