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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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PauloMN

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I still have my snow shovel and salt that I purchased after 2010 ,

Same here, I got mine when they got them back in stock after the rush, just as the snow melted away! Still has the sticker on, hopefully it will get some use soon!

snowstorm445

GFS snow depth chart for just after midnight on Monday.

54-780UK.GIF?08-18

West and Midlands doing well out of this it seems!

Donegal Storm

irish1967 wrote: »

Graphics on ME RTE forecasts show no precipitation hitting Donegal Sat night / Sunday. Am I reading that correctly ??? Since Donegal is under Status Orange Snow /Ice warning is it only ice for here. Donegal Town based.

See my post above, lots of uncertainty as to how far north the front get before getting pushed back south. Some models showing Donegal as the best place to be for snow, others showing it totally dry, take your pick!

irish1967

I remember making and posting this ... can't believe it was 7 years ago. Let's hope I get to post another one soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sA4EnDjWSs

JCX BXC

Every release is bringing the snow a little bit further out the Clare peninsula, will be skeptically watching.

MJohnston

snowstorm445 wrote: »

GFS snow accumulation chart.

West and Midlands doing well out of this it seems!

I'm going to be pedantic (sorry!) because I think that GFS chart actually shows "snow depths", which would be something different from what people understand when they hear "accumulation" for precipitation. Accumulation seems generally to be more about the total depth of precip that fell over a particular timeframe, whereas the snow depth chart is just showing how deep the snow will be at that particular point in time.

I know, I did say I was being pedantic, but there could be a fair difference between those two values!

BLIZZARD7

United road wrote: »

Do you have any opinion on snow line Blizzard, when you mention dublin/wicklow high ground, just how high? say a line from sandyford , rathfarnham up? Taking in stepaside and ticknock!
(Apologies if i have this wrong, but seem to recall this as being your neck of the woods)

It's really too early to call right now, although I'm thinking anywhere above 100m will end up with something of note, above 200m I think will have snow all the way through.
- I'm closer to Dundrum/Goatstown. Stepaside and ticknock up should end up doing very well but as I said, too early to know. Those areas could end up with cold rain or huge snowfall, we should know more by tomorrow evening- very much knife edge though. Where I am I'm expecting a mixed bag with some light accumulation at times, based on the current charts anyway.

pauldry

Have meteociel temp map open as a full time tab from now till Monday

-1c is lowest in Ireland

-7c in Scotland

Maybe pt rosee (dew point) is map i should be looking at or the DAM

My God weather is complicated if you delve deep into it and snow forecasting for Ireland is as complicated as it possibly gets especially as Saturday night it could be snowing in one location but 1km away nothing and 1km further South raining.

How do you even pretend to be able to know how to predict that

Snow forecasts are nowcasts ....like severe storms and very heavy rain events.

But Met Eireann have been spot on recently and theyr going for 4 to 8cm of snow so Id say its quite likely some location in Ireland will see this amount of snow.

The middle third and some of inland North look particularly favoured for me

arctictree

I wonder is there also a chance of freezing rain? I remember Xmas day a few years back. It was 0.5c all day and pissing rain from a warm front hitting cold air. The road was like an ice rink. Can't remember the exact year.

Kermit.de.frog

People should be taking this seriously and making preparations - particularly in the midlands and north Connaught. This will be disruptive.

Pop in to your elderly neighbors, see if they could use some help.

JCX BXC

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

MJohnston

arctictree wrote: »

I wonder is there also a chance of freezing rain? I remember Xmas day a few years back. It was 0.5c all day and pissing rain from a warm front hitting cold air. The road was like an ice rink. Can't remember the exact year.

It's showing up in some of the charts actually - it's usually shown as red hatched lines on the precip charts.

Kermit.de.frog

JCX BXC wrote: »

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

PukkaStukka

JCX BXC wrote: »

Knock Airport 11pm TAF already in with the snow,

BECMG 0920/0923 10012KT 3000 -SN SCT003 BKN008
TEMPO 0923/0924 1200 SN OVC002

Basically forecasting snow from the get-go at 8pm tomorrow night.

Could be some festive scenes on Sunday in Knock! Wasn't expecting snow in this forecast!

Any idea what the TAF for Dublin says?

MJohnston

I have a feeling this 18z WRM chart might be very close to what we see:

Will have to wait until the 0z for further timeframes from that model though.

JCX BXC

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Any idea what the TAF for Dublin says?

No mention of Precipitation.

TAF is only valid for 24hrs, wouldn't have expected anything in it.

Iancar29

WRF / HIRLAM comparison by 7am Sunday.

I think the WRF has a better resolution on it.

PukkaStukka

All of what I've seen thus far suggests I'm in for a wet day on Sunday.

Danno

Hooks Golf Handicap wrote: »

I'm hoping for a white gold around Carlow but doubting it more and more.

We had a few rain showers this evening after dark and if it wasn't cold enough then it's hard to see it cold enough on Sunday.
Also the dreaded word thaw rears its head even if we get a big fall.
The sadness of the drip drips, the roads clearing, green grass reappearing and finally the snowman goes dark grey and withers.

Interesting you say that - I left Tullamore close to 5.30pm and at (dashboard thermometer) it was 2.0c. Onto Portlaoise and it was 3.0c and sleet. Then in Abbeyleix it snowed at 2.5c.

In summary, it's all about the air up there!

Jobs OXO

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People should be taking this seriously and making preparations - particularly in the midlands and north Connaught. This will be disruptive.

Pop in to your elderly neighbors, see if they could use some help.

I'm in Dublin. Could the electric and pipes be impacted ?

HankSchrader

Long time lurker here. I'm in Westmeath, North of Athlone. We had rain here this evening meanwhile there was still snow in Mullingar.
Weather station was reading 2c. Anyway I'm hoping it's not the same come Sunday as a few miles up the road can be all the difference....have put new batteries in my weather station...just incase...

Danno

Ninthlife wrote: »

Ok..serious question. Wife is due this weekend and will be attending Portlaoise should baby wish to arrive on time. Driving from Kildare so how much snow within the general area may fall?

I need to plan just incase!!!!

If there's a hint of a hurler or even a daycent footballer - you need not worry. Laois will look after mother and baby!

We'll send the rescue chopper up!

200motels

Looking at the forecast for here on Saturday into Sunday I think all we’ll have is rain I’m afraid.

Danno

MJohnston wrote: »

Does GFS not have a snow accumulation chart at all?

Knock your socks off: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&time=0&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Donegal Storm

MJohnston wrote: »

I have a feeling this 18z WRM chart might be very close to what we see:

Will have to wait until the 0z for further timeframes from that model though.

I'd expect mainly sleet across much of that area at that time, freezing level is 100-250m across the midlands for most of the day going by GFS soundings. My best guess would be sleet/snow to start with, changing to rain then back to sleet and snow later on. The northern flank will likely be snow throughout but we're still not even close to pegging down where that will be!

Right on a knife-edge as always in this country, a degree or two either way could make all the difference

Kermit.de.frog

Even if Dubs are thwarted in the first attack by the breeze off the sea chances are it turns to snow anyway in to Sunday evening. Win, win.

@JOBS OXO, Not in Dublin, for now...but keep an eye on here for updates.

Someone mention freezing rain as a hazard...yes!

Going to get hit by all sorts.

Bring on the full fury of mother nature I say!

MJohnston

Danno wrote: »

Knock your socks off: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&time=0&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3

Heh, that's snow-depth, I was being pedantic about that a bit up-thread

Dank Janniels

Sorry if this was already answered but whts the situation in yer opinion for Galway city +county? Busy schedule tomoro in city but thinking of bus home if its gona be shoyt out tomoro night. Could stay night in city but wont be home til moday if sunday is bad too!!

highdef

Jobs OXO wrote: »

I'm in Dublin. Could the electric and pipes be impacted ?

HIGHLY unlikely

pauldry

Met Eireann has also mentioned -8c in their latest forecasr

2.1c in Sligo now and getting calmer

Calm will bring snowpfully