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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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dsmythy

thecretinhop wrote: »

So at the moment where if it comes of will get biggest hit and can it change at this stage?

It can change dramatically. The warning issued for Sunday by Met Eireann tells you where it would be worse in a snow scenario.

MJohnston

We'll get new HIRLAM, ARPEGE, and WRM runs at 4pm. GFS 12Z is currently in progress too.

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I think Tipp and north Cork will see a fair bit at times
The air over Munster has too much Atlantic maratime influence but as this system backs away Southeast there could be surprises
It’s exceptionally hard to pin this down
I mean all options are on the table including an entire rain event if the low goes too far north
The further north,the less are invited to the party

I suppose the met have excluded us Munster folk totally from the party but things can change as you said.

MJohnston

GFS 12Z is looking marginally more south than the previous run to my eyes.

Reckless Abandonment

Looks a tiny bit further north on the 12z gfs.
The knife is getting sharper

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

GFS 12Z is looking marginally more south than the previous run to my eyes.

Strike that, reverse it. Marginally north, I was getting them the wrong way round in comparison.

Villain

Yep GFS slightly further north but this is really going to be a now-cast event for areas south of Dublin to Galway with dew point watching.

MJohnston

Only seeing each frame of the GFS as it rolls out, but it's looking like a little bit of a downgrade for the Dublin area and the south-east coast, in that it's not turning from rain to snow until much later in the day (around 10pm compared to 1pm in the previous run)

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

Only seeing each frame of the GFS as it rolls out, but it's looking like a little bit of a downgrade for the Dublin area and the south-east coast, in that it's not turning from rain to snow until much later in the day (around 10pm compared to 1pm in the previous run)

And on the GFS anyway, this seems to be crucial, because by 10pm, a good amount of the precipitation will have passed Dublin already.

Reckless Abandonment

MJohnston wrote: »

Only seeing each frame of the GFS as it rolls out, but it's looking like a little bit of a downgrade for the Dublin area and the south-east coast, in that it's not turning from rain to snow until much later in the day (around 10pm compared to 1pm in the previous run)

I would be to worried just yet. As villian said it will be a now cast type of deal.
GFS would not be my go to model for precipitation charts.

sryanbruen

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I would be to worried just yet. As villian said it will be a now cast type of deal.
GFS would not be my go to model for precipitation charts.

GFS would not be my go to model in general :P.

MJohnston

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I would be to worried just yet. As villian said it will be a now cast type of deal.
GFS would not be my go to model for precipitation charts.

Definitely not, I can't remember which I looked at before last night, but one of the HIRLAM or ARPEGE runs got it fairly accurate. GFS is just for the sake of something to update the thread with

Rock Lesnar

Right so, im in north meath as some of you know, probably north east even, how is it looking for us on sunday?

Gonzo

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Right so, im in north meath as some of you know, probably north east even, how is it looking for us on sunday?

you stand a much greater chance than I would in south-east Meath which is really part of the Greater Dublin area. I've a feeling the snowline will be Mullingar to Kells and northwards, this will probably end up in us looking to see what falls out of the sky.

PauloMN

My drive from Carlow to Meath on Sunday morning promises to be interesting I take it!

MJohnston

12z HIRLAM:

hirlamuk-1-43-0.png?08-17

Didn't know which frame to pick, there are too many good ones!

munsterlegend

MJohnston wrote: »

12z HIRLAM:

Didn't know which frame to pick, there are too many good ones!

Does it show any back edge snow as it drifts South later in the day?

pad199207

Hirlam is pure weather porn

Rock Lesnar

Gonzo wrote: »

you stand a much greater chance than I would in south-east Meath which is really part of the Greater Dublin area. I've a feeling the snowline will be Mullingar to Kells and northwards, this will probably end up in us looking to see what falls out of the sky.

Cheers Gonzo but 1st off Dunshauglin is always Meath, none of that Greater Dublin Area around here

.

lets hope we get lucky, the kids here heard about it at school today, so they're already, ready to build a snowman.

MJohnston

Maybe this will give a sense of what the HIRLAM is predicting for Sunday. Here's accumulated snowfall from now until midnight Saturday/Sunday:

And here's how much is accumulated after an additional 13 hours:

MJohnston

munsterlegend wrote: »

Does it show any back edge snow as it drifts South later in the day?

HIRLAM only goes up to 48 hours, so it'll not show up until one of tomorrow's runs.

Edit to add: the ARPEGE has a longer range and its 12Z is currently rolling out, so it might show up on that.

irishfeen

We are fcuked in Cork

Sofiztikated

I have to head from Cavan to Derry on Sunday morning.

Tell me straight, Doc, what are my chances?

munsterlegend

irishfeen wrote: »

We are fcuked in Cork

Yep rain and more rain to start with.

irishfeen

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yep rain and more rain to start with.

Not one snow shower today here in North Cork either..

thecretinhop

that dark bit in the middle looks like a jumbo bone for the dog!

cherryghost

thecretinhop wrote: »

that dark bit in the middle looks like a jumbo bone for the dog!

Mother nature is throwing us a bone

MJohnston

ARPEGE far more conservative compared to the HIRLAM, more in line with the GFS actually:

pad199207

MJohnston wrote: »

ARPEGE far more conservative compared to the HIRLAM, more in line with the GFS actually:

Bin that because there’s no snow over Kildare

irish1967

irishfeen wrote: »

Not one snow shower today here in North Cork either..

None here in Donegal Town either.