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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Kermit.de.frog

MOD NOTE

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed - report & let the Mod team deal with it

**It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred) **

Thanks

As requested.

Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

To summarise:

Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

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giveitholly

Will there be much precipitation from this weather front,could there be spot flooding in Munster?

Gaoth Laidir

I'm more optimistic about this event than I was about today's. A few days of cold frosts to cool down the ground and get a nice cold layer established. Can't access forecast soundings now but I'd imagine they'll show a heavy snow or freezing rain setup. 850 hPa temperatures may not mean much in this case as we're not talking about convection, but obviously it'll have to be sub-zero.

The first time I've gotten properly interested in a snow event since 2010.

Danno

The Met.ie 5-day graphics charts showing -8c over the midlands-east on Monday evening!

Villain

Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

Danno

GFS Snow depths for Monday morning at 9am!

Bejubby

Villain wrote: »

Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

Hi villain.
Do you think the south east might get snow at this time??

PukkaStukka

Villain wrote: »

Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

GFS viewed through NetWeather shows the same.

jonny_b

Villain wrote: »

Harmonie matches the weather warning but Kildare, Laois, Wicklow and Dublin start off as rain on it and slowly turn to snow.

Rain for Carlow then too?

cherryghost

ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:

Snow-ice Warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath and Meath
Significant falls of snow are expected Saturday night and into Sunday. Accumulations of 4 to 8 cm could occur quite widely with greater totals possible. Drifting snow locally at times too with brisk winds. Slippery paths and treacherous roads also due to snow accumulation and ice.

kod87

cherryghost wrote: »

ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:

I have a bad feeling I might be just a tad too far south, in which case tomorrow night is likely to be very depressing

The only thing worse than getting no snow at all is people only a 50 km away getting tons of it

Villain

Bejubby wrote: »

Hi villain.
Do you think the south east might get snow at this time??

Not looking likely based on current details anyway, higher ground alright.

George Sunsnow

What’s interesting here is the sliding nature of the low
Normally lows shunt away cold
This one bumps into it and party’s with it
It’s in my opinion with the current northern hemisphere profile an early taste of what’s in store as winter goes on if things don’t change

I’m expecting rain in Arklow which may turn to snow
But Alpine conditions in many inland warning areas from the get go

Last nights snow here is still covering the shady garden,a temp of 2.9c and do of -1c

It all depends how far north the low goes

munsterlegend

kod87 wrote: »

I have a bad feeling I might be just a tad too far south, in which case tomorrow night is likely to be very depressing

The only thing worse than getting no snow at all is people only a 50 km away getting tons of it

It will be hard for Munster people as well watching all the fun as we have rain again! Oh joy

kod87

munsterlegend wrote: »

It will be hard for Munster people as well watching all the fun as we have rain again! Oh joy

well at least we are well used to it

MJohnston

So we have an Orange level of snow/ice, but individually the potential wind and wind gusts aren't enough to get more than a yellow level each.

By those criteria we wouldn't see a storm naming triggered. But ME do say "Consideration will also be given to rain and snow events", so I wonder whether Yellow Level wind + Orange level snow/ice warning = Storm Dylan.

Rebelbrowser

George Sunsnow wrote: »

What’s interesting here is the sliding nature of the low
Normally lows shunt away cold
This one bumps into it and party’s with it
It’s in my opinion with the current northern hemisphere profile an early taste of what’s in store as winter goes on if things don’t change

I’m expecting rain in Arklow which may turn to snow
But Alpine conditions in many inland warning areas from the get go

Last nights snow here is still covering the shady garden,a temp of 2.9c and do of -1c

It all depends how far north the low goes

stupid question but do we want it going north or south? not familiar with this kind of set up.

Meteorite58

WRF performing quite well atm

Could be seeing rainfall warnings too ( for Kerry no doubt ! :pac: )

RobertKK

I think the high ground of north Kilkenny will get a lot more snow.
The snow from last night has remained, and we got a high today of 2.8C at 220m asl.
My mother would say when snow was slow to go, that it was waiting for more, not scientific, but it did say it was cold enough...
I see in Kilkenny city about 6 miles away the high reached has been 4.7C.
The effect of altitude, and I think the Castlecomer plateau has a decent chance of getting a lot of snow.

Akrasia

cherryghost wrote: »

ME has now given this Orange alert for most of the country:

Cromwell Thought Clare was part of Connacht.

If it's good enough for Cromwell, it's good enough for me.

(grasping at straws)

George Sunsnow

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

stupid question but do we want it going north or south? not familiar with this kind of set up.

A bit further South would be good
Not much though

Even though it’s not as cold,I’ve a jan 82 feeling in me shivers now about this one

munsterlegend

George Sunsnow wrote: »

A bit further South would be good
Not much though

Even though it’s not as cold,I’ve a jan 82 feeling in me shivers now about this one

Why is Munster not getting anything? Is it due to the cold not having filtered South enough?

patneve2

Sorry if I am posting this from an in my back yard point of view, but I'm purposely not getting too excited about this possible event - am very cautious with these types of setups. Reckon there will be zero to 1-2cm accumulations (at best) on Dublin coast and city centre, possibly a bit more in inland/higher ground areas - the wind being the problem. Above 200m in coastal districts & ground level 20 km in land should be a different ball game all together, definitely most promising charts for heavy snow with potential for 10+ cm accumulations since Jan/March 2013 and maybe 2010. Expecting heavy rain here turning to wet, non accumulating rain/snow later. With a bit of luck locations a bit further inland and with a bit of height as close as Casement could see rain turning to full on snow. Will be important to monitor the next few model runs, hopefully we will see a slight S shift to increase our chances of seeing something white.

davidsr20

So I take it mid west is looking best for this event?

patneve2

In addition, I would keep an eye out on possible preciptation shadows on the West side of the Wicklow Mountains, sometimes this occurs in an E flow.

JCX BXC

Not even going to let myself get excited for this one, as it WILL be rain for West Clare!

Oneiric 3

Danish Hirlam going for a right old sleety mix for me, but initially starting off as snow tomorrow night, so maybe some quality lamp post watching for a short time:

world_image?city=2961099&mode=dag1_2

Oneiric 3

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not even going to let myself get excited for this one, as it WILL be rain for West Clare!

And potentially a good deal of it (meteogram for Ennis from same model)

world_image?city=2964405&mode=dag1_2

George Sunsnow

munsterlegend wrote: »

Why is Munster not getting anything? Is it due to the cold not having filtered South enough?

I think Tipp and north Cork will see a fair bit at times
The air over Munster has too much Atlantic maratime influence but as this system backs away Southeast there could be surprises
It’s exceptionally hard to pin this down
I mean all options are on the table including an entire rain event if the low goes too far north
The further north,the less are invited to the party

thecretinhop

So at the moment where if it comes of will get biggest hit and can it change at this stage?

pad199207

Looks like this is going to go down to the last tee in detail. Theres going to be some very happy people and theres going to be some extremely pissed off people.