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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

Mod Note
This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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arctictree

I think Rebelbrowser is looking at the 06z...

highdef

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Em...confused now. Meteociel has entirely different charts? See below. Anyone?

That's more in line with what I am seeing

Rebelbrowser

Em...confused now. Meteociel has entirely different charts? See below. Anyone?

gfs-0-372.png?12

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

The Only saviour of hope I get from this absolute football of Model runs lately is that it’s a recurring cold signal that keeps getting picked up.

If we don’t get some sort of cold event in December well then father dougal maguire might aswell be running the charts.

Is it a signal at all though if it never gets out of FI
This is the same as last year
If anything the tilt of the high may rise temps a bit over the weekend!

Rebelbrowser

The GFS is out further on weatheronline and at t372 we have an easterly folks!

can't see what can possibly go wrong from here.....

pad199207

The Only saviour of hope I get from this absolute football of Model runs lately is that it’s a recurring cold signal that keeps getting picked up.

If we don’t get some sort of cold event in December well then father dougal maguire might aswell be running the charts.

arctictree

That LP is back again on the GFS 12Z. Still 8 days out though!

BLIZZARD7

I'm thinking this may end up a halfway house between GFS and ECM, with the high not sinking fully but letting some colder air into the north before ridging over Ireland - not unlike this week.
We would need some fairly big changes from the ECM soon for the colder and possibly snowy option to work out. Likewise I can't see the high sinking fully and warm south westerlies coming in, not yet anyway.

Gaoth Laidir

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Not sure that's fair tbh, the GFS is posted more in FI threads because it goes much further out into FI than the ECM.

What I mean is that even within less than the FI period, say 2 or 3 days out, the GFS still has a 1 or 2-degree cold bias in 850 temps.

But even at 10 days out we rarely see the ECM showing scenarios as cold as the GFS, and let's be honest, this is pretty much how it pans out in reality.

BLIZZARD7

Outer reaches of FI again finishes with a cold blocked chart - this time a huge siberian/Scandinavia high driving -8c uppers back in from the East.

gfsnh-0-384.png?0

Hopefully ECM starts coming on board with next week's northerly this morning.

BLIZZARD7

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Not sure that's fair tbh, the GFS is posted more in FI threads because it goes much further out into FI than the ECM.

Whilst I agree the ECM is generally a better all round model, The GFS gets referenced more because A. It runs 4 times a day. B. It shows every 3 hour movement. And.C as you say, it goes out a lot further into FI.

I seem to remember it calling the December 2010 spell ahead of all the other models, dropping it completely and then picking it back up again about 7 days out. I may remember that incorrectly though.

BLIZZARD7

UKMO pretty decent this morning.

00z GFS - BOOM

gfsnh-0-180.png?0

Last night's 18z for reference -

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

00z has -10c 850's over a lot of the country by +192hrs

192-7UK.GIF?29-0

hatrickpatrick

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Until the ECM shows something then I'm not biting. The GFS is a joke of a model in comparison and is invariably the one that gets posted in this thread because of its outlandish swings and cold bias in northerly outbreaks.

Not sure that's fair tbh, the GFS is posted more in FI threads because it goes much further out into FI than the ECM.

Gaoth Laidir

Until the ECM shows something then I'm not biting. The GFS is a joke of a model in comparison and is invariably the one that gets posted in this thread because of its outlandish swings and cold bias in northerly outbreaks.

pistolpetes11

arctictree wrote: »

Those quickly developing LPs are very hard to predict a few days out, never mind a week. It'll probably be gone in the next run.

Its been the trend , dropping it , but they keep on coming back up , I think there is something brewing here , usually the idea is dropped and off we go in search again , but this time around the next run reels us back in .

The charts tonight are unreal , but I will expect a downgrade on them tomorrow as what on offer tonight , there wouldn't be much chat of 2010 any more , 2017 would be all the rage

Some thing not working on my image server for me to post charts :mad:

arctictree

Those quickly developing LPs are very hard to predict a few days out, never mind a week. It'll probably be gone in the next run.

JCX BXC

Lovely charts, nice to imagine it!

Wouldn't take it at face value though, know better at this stage!

BLIZZARD7

18z is incredible, the sweet spot of that snow event would get 1 foot plus. Please let this be a new trend...

In the more reliable time-frames, this is a great run and is definitely on the track we want for a decent cold spell to develop.

Meteorite58

If this came off it would bound to be a snow event. Totally different to the ECM, the intrigue goes on. Maybe that is what we need, a few LP's moving into Europe to displace and drag down the cold.

Danno

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

A good few days of lying snow from that -

*** IF *** it happens as the model says!

esposito

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

Of course it won't, it's the pub run and it's drunk :pac:

patneve2

GFS 18z is one of the best runs I have seen in a while...doubt it will end up like that

sean555

If only.......

Kermit.de.frog

18z GFS has a snow event for Ireland this time next week.

Meteorite58

The jet staying more Northerly up until around the 5th, thereafter it would look to me like it could take a more Southerly track and it would seem to become a bit more organised and stronger and perhaps start churning out the LP systems again ?

The end of the present GFS run showing depressions queuing up crossing the Atlantic well out in FI.

The end of the ECM run at + 240 showing a possible LP making inroads on the ridge over Ireland.

The tight isobars over Ireland would indicate the influence of the Jet I would think. Looks like a mild Sw'ly flow .

BLIZZARD7

Much improved 12z ECM up to +168hrs - hopefully by this time tomorrow we're looking at an unstable freezing northerly at this timeframe -

- Gets messy again blowing up an Atlantic low and sinking our high. Im not buying this, the models haven't a clue what to do with the jetstream coming off the eastern seaboard US after +120hrs. More ups and downs coming - I do expect the colder northerly reload to succeed in the end though.

squarecircles

The pink gold...

Rebelbrowser

Which suggests too many of you are reading the NW Model Output Discussion Forum! Not good for anyone's health or sanity as ye probably know already.....

sryanbruen

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Was just about to post the same

Same here :P.

pistolpetes11

George Sunsnow wrote: »

According to Nick on net weather who’s obviously looked at The US met services tech discussion ,the overnight ECM is for the bin

“
NOAA have just called the ECM 00hrs run outlandish ! They have serious doubts over this mornings op run which is good news because it was dreadful from a cold perspective! “

Was just about to post the same