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NBP: National Broadband Plan Announced

ED E

They've published!

The government has published a new map outlining in detail 700,000 rural homes and businesses which will be connected to state-subsidised broadband of at least 30 megabits per second (Mbs) from 2016.

http://www.independent.ie/business/technology/news/revealed-700000-homes-and-businesses-to-get-subsidised-fast-broadband-in-new-plan-30769126.html

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tsue921i8wljb3

KOR101 wrote: »

If that's their intention then they must go through the process and sign a commitment agreement. They cannot meet the technological requirements in the process, so this is nothing like what Eir did.

They have obviously chosen the 30Mb at install for a reason (it being the minimum speed mandated by the NBP) so they may argue that they would meet the technological requirements.

Their plan may be just to delay the process as much as possible allowing them to build out, capturing customers and hope inertia keeps them subscribing.

In any case it seems that Imagine and their investors are unafraid of a process that many, including myself, thought would destroy them.

KOR101

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

They have obviously chosen the 30Mb at install for a reason (it being the minimum speed mandated by the NBP) so they may argue that they would meet the technological requirements.

Took a while to find it. One of the criteria is even "Does the solution rely on optical (or equivalent) technology. Can't find it now, but there were others about future proofing, and I thought the spectrum simply isn't large enough even with lots more masts.

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

In any case it seems that Imagine and their investors are unafraid of a process that many, including myself, thought would destroy them.

The article reads like his pitch to investors. It says that they couldn't confirm that anyone had actually agreed to the funding yet. When I read that passage I did think that this was a potential legal/EU case, but I don't think they can come close to winning this.

tsue921i8wljb3

KOR101 wrote: »

Took a while to find it. One of the criteria is even "Does the solution rely on optical (or equivalent) technology. Can't find it now, but there were others about future proofing, and I thought the spectrum simply isn't large enough even with lots more masts.

The article reads like his pitch to investors. It says that they couldn't confirm that anyone had actually agreed to the funding yet. When I read that passage I did think that this was a potential legal/EU case, but I don't think they can come close to winning this.

Good memory! I don't think they would win either. Hopefully it is as you say merely a sales pitch. It will be interesting to see if investors who one would assume are smart and clued in take the gamble with Imagine.

rodge123

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

Good memory! I don't think they would win either. Hopefully it is as you say merely a sales pitch. It will be interesting to see if investors who one would assume are smart and clued in take the gamble with Imagine.

The article makes my blood boil, I love the part
"Imagine advertises the LTE service as enabling download speeds of about 70MB for customers. However, customers often secure speeds above that. Mr Bolger said that as the network expanded, high"

It reads like something mr Bolger wrote himself and the independent just put it In word for word!

There are also plenty of people that don't get close to the 30mb speeds at peak hours and that's with a daily data cap!

I'm very concerned that they will convince whatever gombeen minister for communications to exclude them if we have an early election.

Gonzo

Mr Bolger deserves a massive gold star for determination. Imagine obviously have plans to expand and dominate the rural landscape and see their product as a commercial 'fibre' product similar to Eir, Siro and Virgin Media. Suggestions here that Imagine will try to get their footprint areas taken out of the NBP could be real, at this stage Bolger is capable of anything to keep Imagine growing and expanding.

I really hope this isn't true, because if it does happen, that's rural Ireland back to square one.

ED E

CISCO wrote:

Global IP traffic will increase nearly threefold over the next 5 years. Overall, IP traffic will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 24 percent from 2016 to 2021. Monthly IP traffic will reach 35 GB per capita by 2021, up from 13 GB per capita in 2016.

Ciscos previous predictions have been +/- 10% correct.

Imagine will have no new hardware of bandwidth in the next 5yrs in all foreseeable circumstances. There are only a certain number of new high sites they can occupy.

24% more traffic each year, 0% extra capacity. You can "Imagine" how the service will feel in 2019.

Johnboy1951

As I read it, there is a huge dependency on how this is interpreted ...

Minimum download speed of 30Mbps to all users when they demand it.

From a non-technical non-service provider's point of view that 'should' mean All users should be able to get 30Mbps at the same time.

Presumably service providers will not necessarily have this 'full' capacity.

What would that quote mean to the department? .... they wrote it

Would/could they demand that the 'full' capacity should be available at all times?

AidenL

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

They have obviously chosen the 30Mb at install for a reason (it being the minimum speed mandated by the NBP) so they may argue that they would meet the technological requirements.

Their plan may be just to delay the process as much as possible allowing them to build out, capturing customers and hope inertia keeps them subscribing.

In any case it seems that Imagine and their investors are unafraid of a process that many, including myself, thought would destroy them.

I guess, in all fairness, there are a lot of people in homes like me who probably won’t see anything from the NBP until 2020 at the very earliest.

I’m looking at wireless right now out of desperation. I was in the blue zone, and fell back in to the Amber NBP, I think we all accept there will be nothing from it till around 2020 at the speed things are moving.

Imagine would be better than nothing?

KOR101

And, let's not forget that the 30mbit target is for 2020. It's looking like a good proportion of houses under the NBP won't be completed until after 2020 and these would come under any new EU target for 2025, which may well be close to 100mbit.

tsue921i8wljb3

AidenL wrote: »

I guess, in all fairness, there are a lot of people in homes like me who probably won’t see anything from the NBP until 2020 at the very earliest.

I’m looking at wireless right now out of desperation. I was in the blue zone, and fell back in to the Amber NBP, I think we all accept there will be nothing from it till around 2020 at the speed things are moving.

Imagine would be better than nothing?

Oh yes it is certainly better than nothing. It just doesn't compare to the full fibre solution proposed by the bidders in the NBP.

tsue921i8wljb3

KOR101 wrote: »

And, let's not forget that the 30mbit target is for 2020. It's looking like a good proportion of houses under the NBP won't be completed until after 2020 and these would come under any new EU target for 2025, which may well be close to 100mbit.

Lucky then to quote the article

LTE speeds of as fast as one gigabit have already been demonstrated by US telecoms operator Sprint.

AidenL

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

Oh yes it is certainly better than nothing. It just doesn't compare to the full fibre solution proposed by the bidders in the NBP.

I suppose the advantage is, it’s here right now as an offering, the NBP on the ground is literally years away.

Gonzo

If Imagne really are going to try and take their areas out of the NBP, lets hope the government see's sense and not fall for Imagine's plans.

If this does become a reality, there could be large portions of rural Ireland with nothing other than Imagine available.

What happens if a customer can't get a line of sight/ proper connection?
What happens if a mast is then full and Imagine won't supply a customer in one of their areas?
What happens if Imagine pile everyone onto the masts with massive contention with no more bandwidth available?
How long will it take Imagine to retire each wireless product before introducing a new wireless product when product becomes obsolete?

Ultimanemo

Gonzo wrote: »

What happens if a mast is then full and Imagine won't supply a customer in one of their areas?

For me, that is not if, that is now

opinionated3

Gonzo wrote: »

If Imagne really are going to try and take their areas out of the NBP, lets hope the government see's sense and not fall for Imagine's plans.

If this does become a reality, there could be large portions of rural Ireland with nothing other than Imagine available.

What happens if a customer can't get a line of sight/ proper connection?
What happens if a mast is then full and Imagine won't supply a customer in one of their areas?
What happens if Imagine pile everyone onto the masts with massive contention with no more bandwidth available?
How long will it take Imagine to retire each wireless product before introducing a new wireless product when product becomes obsolete?

I'm here right now struggling with 2.3mb with imagine LTE. I'm connected to the Ben dash mast in co Clare. Clearly there is a major issue with contention because every evening my speed drops to around the 3mb mark. Can't even watch Netflix. Mr bolger might talk a good game but his product in reality is not reliable and is bloody expensive too. I sincerely hope a more reliable supplier with better technology wins the nbp contract. I'm in the area that won't be dealt with till at least 2020 so I'm stuck with imagine till then

rodge123

ED E wrote: »

Ciscos previous predictions have been +/- 10% correct.

Imagine will have no new hardware of bandwidth in the next 5yrs in all foreseeable circumstances. There are only a certain number of new high sites they can occupy.

24% more traffic each year, 0% extra capacity. You can "Imagine" how the service will feel in 2019.

Yes but does whatever Minister that happens to be in place early next know or really care about this? Or understand for that matter!

I just have no confidence in any of our elected representatives to implement this correctly for everyone for the future....

Take this scenario:
New minsiter in charge in new year.
NBP has been dragging on for years and nothing started yet (Chances are they were ones criticising the slow process as they normally do when in opposition whether right or wrong).
Imagine lodge a complaint that NBP is encroaching on their areas and that they will sue if government doesn't remove them.
Mr New Minister decides feck this....I can cut them out and get tender out the door so this thing can get going OR wait years of legal wrangling and I'll be gone with nothing achieved to my name/legacy!

You sound like you have all the facts and data to back up why their solution wont work.

I dont suppose you could do us all a favour ED and put a detailed email together as to why Imagines solution will not work long term, and forward this email to all government departments and newspapers?

Gonzo

opinionated3 wrote: »

I'm here right now struggling with 2.3mb with imagine LTE. I'm connected to the Ben dash mast in co Clare. Clearly there is a major issue with contention because every evening my speed drops to around the 3mb mark. Can't even watch Netflix. Mr bolger might talk a good game but his product in reality is not reliable and is bloody expensive too. I sincerely hope a more reliable supplier with better technology wins the nbp contract. I'm in the area that won't be dealt with till at least 2020 so I'm stuck with imagine till then

With Imagine it seems a bit of a lottery with masts, some of them are really badly contended and others are fine.

If Imagine do get away with taking all of their existing coverage areas out of the NBP then those masts are all going to be full at some stage and heavily contended.

This would be a real dirty move by Imagine, they have been bad mouthing FTTH and the NBP ever since they lost their bid and seem to be doing whatever they can to keep their large slice of rural broadband.

rodge123

Ultimanemo wrote: »

For me, that is not if, that is now

Me too..averaging 7Mb down / 2Up most evenings.

Gonzo's point is very valid.

If excluded from NBP:
- All their customers most likely will only have them as an option, they could potentially fleece us then....zero competition
- Would they have to allow other operators access to their network like eir do?

I've a mini forrest a few fields down to the left of my house, not in line of site of mast but if they decided to forrest field directly behind my house in line of mast then what happens!

tsue921i8wljb3

It's unlikely that Imagine would actually be successful in having premises removed from the NBP. The question might be whether they see litigation as beneficial to their business model. By suing they may hold up the process giving them a chance to expand and add more customers but obviously litigation is not cheap especially if you are destined to lose.

BandMember

Imagine can try to take areas out of the NBP, but they haven't a hope in hell and they know it. It's just posturing to see if they can (a) wrangle some concessions out of the Department and (b) reassure shareholders. It may hold things up for a bit but, in the long term, it's nothing to worry about as the Department's submission papers (which were helpfully posted on this thread) shows that Imagine cannot meet the requirements of the NBP - no matter how much BS they spout.....

On a sidenote, very disappointed with the likes of Weckler in the Independent (although I don't think he wrote today's article). For a fella who likes to portray himself as a tecchie, he does nothing but copy and paste Imagine's press releases with no objectivity or questioning, yet he's fairly quick to comment on the NBP process. I'll say no more....

wexfordman2

BandMember wrote: »

Imagine can try to take areas out of the NBP, but they haven't a hope in hell and they know it. It's just posturing to see if they can (a) wrangle some concessions out of the Department and (b) reassure shareholders. It may hold things up for a bit but, in the long term, it's nothing to worry about as the Department's submission papers (which were helpfully posted on this thread) shows that Imagine cannot meet the requirements of the NBP - no matter how much BS they spout.....

On a sidenote, very disappointed with the likes of Weckler in the Independent (although I don't think he wrote today's article). For a fella who likes to portray himself as a tecchie, he does nothing but copy and paste Imagine's press releases with no objectivity or questioning, yet he's fairly quick to comment on the NBP process. I'll say no more....

You would wonder if many of the "articles" the independent carry are actual articles or "advertising" ?

Persiancowboy

One of the most basic requirements of the Department's spec is for future proofing. This is also linked to the State Aid requirement of any publicly-funded intervention constituting a "step-change" in terms of the service being provided.

Can't see how this latest product meets these basic criteria (isn't the 30mbps floor also an "always on" stipulation also?)

Imagine and its CEO are very very good at self-promotion but little else. I wouldn't buy a litre of milk of this outfit.

tsue921i8wljb3

Build unlikely to start until mid 2018:

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/national-broadband-plan-facing-further-possible-delays-as-shovels-in-the-ground-unlikely-to-happen-until-mid2018-36361948.html

dashoonage

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

Build unlikely to start until mid 2018:

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/national-broadband-plan-facing-further-possible-delays-as-shovels-in-the-ground-unlikely-to-happen-until-mid2018-36361948.html

old news. There is a delay in the tender for the supply of the shovels.

Johnboy1951

Siena Gigantic Backyard wrote: »

Build unlikely to start until mid 2018:

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/national-broadband-plan-facing-further-possible-delays-as-shovels-in-the-ground-unlikely-to-happen-until-mid2018-36361948.html

I doubt it will start (shovels in the ground) before Jan 2019.

That has been seen by many as the expected commencement since the eir 300k agreement.

Gonzo

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

I doubt it will start (shovels in the ground) before Jan 2019.

That has been seen by many as the expected commencement since the eir 300k agreement.

I reckon January 2019 would be the absolute earliest date to start, there are bound to be more delays during 2018 with possibly Imagine trying their best to derail the project and a possible general election at some point over next 12 months.

KOR101

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

I doubt it will start (shovels in the ground) before Jan 2019.

That has been seen by many as the expected commencement since the eir 300k agreement.

EIR can complete it in 3 years at a rate of 44k a quarter, so natural to wait until 2019 but it's not looking like Jan 2019.

Ultimanemo

I think people should behave as if NBP will never happen and look for other solutions, That is what I am doing anyway.

ED E

Ultimanemo wrote: »

I think people should behave as if NBP will never happen and look for other solutions, That is what I am doing anyway.

For any telco related service (and many others) thats the only way to operate. 2nd guessing leads you down an impossible prediction rabbit hole.

AidenL

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

I doubt it will start (shovels in the ground) before Jan 2019.

That has been seen by many as the expected commencement since the eir 300k agreement.

I’ll bet June 2019.

Us Amber folk are in for a longgggggggg wait.......:o