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Milk Price III

blue5000

Welcome to milk price III a place to talk about milk prices, compare co-ops/plcs and price trends globally.

Due to difficulties in the past this thread will be heavily moderated. If you are upset by someone else's comments here, we recommend you put them on ignore and report the post as well. Borderline trolling, baiting or any personal comments will be carded. You have been warned, there will be no on thread moderation 'Back on topic etc.'

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Farmer Ed

blue5000 wrote: »

mahoney_j wrote: »

11500 Ltrs ifixed in that pulling my price back a bit too ,not complaining tho .getting a tad worried now re next year .full effects of high butter prices now hitting ,other products are freind less ,smp stocks high and full for this year .butter will drop further will be interesting to see at what mark will it settle and will demand keep up.bills here all well under control and attempting to create this rainy day fund ,very easy on paper reality tho .......
As an Arrabawn supplier very happy with how we’ve performed in last 2 years in particular after years of been junior hurlers

As an ex Arrabawn supplier I wonder how all the lads that jumped ship to Glanbia 2 yrs ago are feeling. I've said it before, but if they hadn't jumped would you still be feeling so happy today?

That said Arrabawn haven't tried to tie suppliers down with five year contracts and still managed to get more new suppliers to jump on ship than jumped off. But I get your point. Competition is the life of any trade and without it most likely the price of milk would be less in every co op and not just Arrabawn. Also a good reason why farmers should not sign long contracts and give all their bargaining power away.

mahoney_j

blue5000 wrote: »

As an ex Arrabawn supplier I wonder how all the lads that jumped ship to Glanbia 2 yrs ago are feeling. I've said it before, but if they hadn't jumped would you still be feeling so happy today?

Can’t comment on lads that left ,nothing only speculation if I did .all I can say is I’m delighted I staid where I am .i had forms filled out to leave but had some niggeling doubts so I remained on the fence and said I’d give it and the coop a year .it was a wise move and one I don’t regret
That whole process was the best thing to ever happen Nenagh coop and thus Arrabawn ,we underperformed and didn’t deliever for years .some great board men and suppliers were unfourtnately lost as they just had enough of the way things were ran ,only they can comment now as to wether decision was right or wrong

alps

blue5000 wrote: »

As an ex Arrabawn supplier I wonder how all the lads that jumped ship to Glanbia 2 yrs ago are feeling. I've said it before, but if they hadn't jumped would you still be feeling so happy today?

Did you move to another processor Blue or change from dairy cows?

blue5000

alps wrote: »

Did you move to another processor Blue or change from dairy cows?

Stopped milking, sucklers now.

Farmer Ed

blue5000 wrote: »

alps wrote: »

Did you move to another processor Blue or change from dairy cows?

Stopped milking, sucklers now.

If you can use the time you save wisely possibly a wise decision. Unfortunately a lot of farm investments in the last couple of years have the potential of turning some at least in to very busy fools.

whelan2

Any word on the strathroy price?

Keepgrowing

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11934183

yewtree

Milk statement came today, fat and protein are nearly the same value. Protein is only worth 10% more, its some change in pricing in a year.
Received 48 cent for 4.85 fat and 3.9% protein.

wats the craic

whelan2 wrote: »

Any word on the strathroy price?

never got a price this month putting it down to the phone system crashing in wexford after the storm , have been paid waiting on the statment to come which hopefully will be tommorrow. i den will post my price and solids .

whelan2

yewtree wrote: »

Milk statement came today, fat and protein are nearly the same value. Protein is only worth 10% more, its some change in pricing in a year.
Received 48 cent for 4.85 fat and 3.9% protein.

Glanbia? Any fixed?

Gawddawggonnit

Keepgrowing wrote: »

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11934183

I'm first and only one to thank this contribution! Keep posting informative articles like this Keepgrowing...lest we get carried away with posters getting near on 50cpl!!

Off now to dig my head into a large heap of sand. Let me know when the 50cpl barrier is broken...

yewtree

whelan2 wrote: »

Glanbia? Any fixed?

No aurivo, less than 5% fixed at 31cent so no big effect on price

yewtree

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I'm first and only one to thank this contribution! Keep posting informative articles like this Keepgrowing...lest we get carried away with posters getting near on 50cpl!!

Off now to dig my head into a large heap of sand. Let me know when the 50cpl barrier is broken...

I think anyone with any clue knows milk price is very unstable. Nobody has a clue what milk price will be in the spring. It seems sentiment has turned a bit in the last two weeks, so it seems milk price might be trending down again. All anyone can do is build a buisness that can survive the dips.

mahoney_j

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I'm first and only one to thank this contribution! Keep posting informative articles like this Keepgrowing...lest we get carried away with posters getting near on 50cpl!!

Off now to dig my head into a large heap of sand. Let me know when the 50cpl barrier is broken...

Lots of lads particularly pure je herds gone well past 50 cent ,don’t think many are burying there head in sand,markets are strong this year due to volume reduction ,demand increase particularly for butter .at or near peak now and only one way for it to go ,buckle up ...

alps

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

Let me know when the 50cpl barrier is broken...

Do you want us to let you know on the way up or the way down?😀

Must say I like the following passage from the article

"Despite the dip in prices overnight, we expect prices to push higher over coming months," Penny said. "Milk is going to be scarcer than we thought, so prices should be going higher, and I think this latest auction result is a bit of a red herring."

boggerman1

alps wrote: »

Do you want us to let you know on the way up or the way down?ðŸ˜€

Must say I like the following passage from the article

"Despite the dip in prices overnight, we expect prices to push higher over coming months," Penny said. "Milk is going to be scarcer than we thought, so prices should be going higher, and I think this latest auction result is a bit of a red herring."

I think one thing that can be gleamed from the article is that bank economists the world over are to quote Eamonn dunphy "spoofers".enjoy the good prices for now and keep the chequebook locked up when price falls

Farmer Ed

When the markets start to drop. Don't worry or co op managers will be the first to share the sad news with us so in the meantime there is little to be gained by us giving them ideas. Meanwhile a lot of farmers haven't still seen the results of strong markets fully passed back to them.

On a related note. Has anyone noticed that there in a new government in NZ supported by the green party? Could this have any effect on NZ output? Just wondering?

briangriffin

fat 4.54 protein 3.94 price was €43.34
no fixed price.
As a matter of interest did many people sign up to the Glanbia fixed price scheme?
Didn't ourselves.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Farmer Ed wrote: »

When the markets start to drop. Don't worry or co op managers will be the first to share the sad news with us so in the meantime there is little to be gained by us giving them ideas. Meanwhile a lot of farmers haven't still seen the results of strong markets fully passed back to them.

On a related note. Has anyone noticed that there in a new government in NZ supported by the green party? Could this have any effect on NZ output? Just wondering?

Current weather will have a bigger effect.

One of their proposals was some charge on dairy farmers like those on the Canterybury plains that use water for irrigation, something like $90/cow would be the cost iirc.

And I would imagine N&P regulations would go hand in hand with any Green party as we have previously found out.

jaymla627

briangriffin wrote: »

fat 4.54 protein 3.94 price was €43.34
no fixed price.
As a matter of interest did many people sign up to the Glanbia fixed price scheme?
Didn't ourselves.

Applied for 300k didn't take up feed option, fixing another bit with Grennans at 31.5, all going well should have nearly 70% of supply fixed next year at a average of 31 cent, butter futures are looking pretty shakey, smp can't be given away and wmp is barely scraping over 3000 dollars a ton on the gdt auctions combined with production ramping up worldwide the signs are pretty ominous

mahoney_j

jaymla627 wrote: »

Applied for 300k didn't take up feed option, fixing another bit with Grennans at 31.5, all going well should have nearly 70% of supply fixed next year at a average of 31 cent, butter futures are looking pretty shakey, smp can't be given away and wmp is barely scraping over 3000 dollars a ton on the gdt auctions combined with production ramping up worldwide the signs are pretty ominous

Sure are and insuring/fixing a portion of supply starting to look an even better option

Gawddawggonnit

jaymla627 wrote: »

Applied for 300k didn't take up feed option, fixing another bit with Grennans at 31.5, all going well should have nearly 70% of supply fixed next year at a average of 31 cent, butter futures are looking pretty shakey, smp can't be given away and wmp is barely scraping over 3000 dollars a ton on the gdt auctions combined with production ramping up worldwide the signs are pretty ominous

+1. Good post.

70% fixed/forward sold would be considered bearish (or prudent!).
I wouldn't be as bearish as you about milk price, but everyone must cover their own ass.
Time will tell if you're on the ball. If I had the option to fix I'd go 50% (max) at 31.5c.

'Locking up the cheque book' is a little over simplistic for dealing with volatility...Keynes "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", comes to mind...or just depend on big Phil and the cavalry.

The best hedge/cover was always to diversify but that's not an option on here...white gold, or nothing!!

I simply can't get my head around how people here can be so confident (or foolhardy!) about cover when having only one income stream...

yewtree

Agree on fixing milk its looking like a good option. The amount you can fix depends on your coop. Some coops havent done much with it yet so the max you could have fixed is 20-30%.
I am not sure how wellgoing into other agri enterprises works. Beef, sheep &tillage are low margin enterprises. And if you included land and labour charge they are probably loss making in most cases. Other enterprises also add complicatation particularly when labour is short on many farms.

George Sunsnow

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

I simply can't get my head around how people here can be so confident (or foolhardy!) about cover when having only one income stream...

It’s actually very simple,you either make money or you don’t
Farming income is about averaging
There aren’t any millionaires from farming income
Never were and never will be

Going fixed would be more popular in Glanbia anyway if the system they have wasn’t so feudal ,devisive or processor weighted eg using drops in base price to subsidize the feudally fixed grants...
The biggest symptom of that last element being their poor base price relative to other co ops

Buford T. Justice XIX

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

+1. Good post.

70% fixed/forward sold would be considered bearish (or prudent!).
I wouldn't be as bearish as you about milk price, but everyone must cover their own ass.
Time will tell if you're on the ball. If I had the option to fix I'd go 50% (max) at 31.5c.

'Locking up the cheque book' is a little over simplistic for dealing with volatility...Keynes "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent", comes to mind...or just depend on big Phil and the cavalry.

The best hedge/cover was always to diversify but that's not an option on here...white gold, or nothing!!

I simply can't get my head around how people here can be so confident (or foolhardy!) about cover when having only one income stream...

Looks like your government is going to feather your nests next year, Dawg.:p

France to base food prices on farmers' production costs

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/france-to-base-food-prices-on-farmers-production-costs-318218

Gawddawggonnit

I read this forum for two threads, the dairy chat and the milk price.

Before quotas went I warned of milk price volatility...remember?
What measures are ye taking (Other than bitching about Coops!)??
Fixed price schemes are a hedge, that's all....I would've thought that a few months of 22cpl would focus minds, but obviously not...and that's all it was, a few months! What if price ( like cereals) was on the floor for a few years??
Big Phil cannot, and should not, go interfering with markets because of unforeseen consequences, equality and fairness etc...

Sadly this thread has degenerated to its former themes of bitching/moaning and boasting/bragging.
NOW, imho, might be a good time to do something about the inevitable.

Example. I'm currently trying to hammer out a deal for 75t of beef at a fixed price for 2018/19. Am I mad? Maybe.

Some things are outside of my control and other things I can actually do something about. So I do the best for my business and live with my decisions.

That's all.

blue5000

Tell us a bit more about the 75t deal?

Gawddawggonnit

blue5000 wrote: »

Tell us a bit more about the 75t deal?

€3550/t being offered and I'm looking for €100/t more.
No max age on heifers and 24mts max age on bulls.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Every market sector is 'interfered' with by government, not just Agriculture, Dawg.

It ranges from minimum wage policy, holiday entitlements, sick pay etc etc to needing work permits to be eligible for work in some sectors to protect native workers from competition from foreign workers. It's nothing new and isn't going to change in the future.

As a sector, we utilise the tools at our disposal to help frame any legislation or policy to maximise the return to our sector, again the same as any other sector in any economy, similar to the beef sector highlighting the threat posed to animal health security by Brazilian beef imports or the health care sector highlighting the need for adequate language skills to minimise problems in that sector by workers misunderstanding instructions re care and medicines. Or French farmers spraying slurry at government offices when protesting about whatever is the current French fixation:pac:

Many are struggling to accept the fluctuations in milk prices paid and have a bigger difficulty in accepting the possible need for fixing a proportion of milk price. A lot of this is would be caused by a lack of trust by suppliers in their processors for multiple reasons, some quite understandable, others not so much.

Every farmer would agree that there is a need to manage price fluctuations but, as yet, seeing as the sector is only about 5 years old, they are undecided as to what shape this management should take. Again, Government policy has a huge part to play in this story by allowing a portion of profits from high milk price years to be partially taxed and kept in escrow in effect, until needed.

This debate is only just starting, Dawg.

Panch18

Gawddawggonnit wrote: »

€3550/t being offered and I'm looking for €100/t more.
No max age on heifers and 24mts max age on bulls.

That's a poor price, I thought beef in France was making more than that