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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Gaoth Laidir

A nice Day/Night satellite image of Ophelia at 0247Z this morning (just visible in the top left). Look a the wildfires raging in Portugal and Galicia.

Lissavane

kadman wrote: »

Thanks for sharing your expertise folks

Yes. It was most useful. Thank you all. Will be interesting to compare this event with Debbie.

kadman

Thanks for sharing your expertise folks

Wanderer78

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Is there a major storm coming on October 21st?

its on some of the models alright, earlier days yet, but may not be as bad as today

Nettle Soup

511 wrote: »

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

Is there a major storm coming on October 21st?

piplip87

Thanks a million guys. All your graphs, charts and MT's excellent forecasts all week have helped me out big time. We did not get as strong I thought here in Cavan. Still the early warning was invaluable regarding getting the yard all tied down.

Still fairly windy in Virginia. Wind not as strong but still quite gusty.

sdanseo

511 wrote: »

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

It was an extratropical storm with at least Category One Hurricane force max winds. Every Met/RTÉ forecast for the last 24hrs has made this distinction, that it was not the tail end of a hurricane, it WAS a hurricane.

All but the very last NHC advisory this morning classified it as a Hurricane.

Technical nomenclature made small difference to those on the ground.

511

Malayalam wrote: »

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

JCX BXC

Mean speed of 17kts now at Dublin airport, it's windier here in West Clare!

Villain

Amazing Sat image

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/919966143623974912

sdanseo

Malayalam wrote: »

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

The same forecast model that accurately predicted this one is predicting similar next week.

The chances of it being right twice in a row are surely hundreds to one. But worth watching.

TomOnBoard

I wonder does Ventusky adjust its reporting based on actual data feeds or is it based on a particular set of model projections that are loaded in advance?

Malayalam

sdanseo wrote: »

And this is the same model for Saturday:

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Just coming back to this one that I mentioned was on the island (in fact, 6.5km offshore).

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919878538664300545

Allowing for the fact that we measure in a 10-minute average and the NHC use 1-minute, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that Ophelia hit us as a Category 2 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone. Joanna was spot on.

Well the lighthous is 54 metres above water so, like Kinsale Energy, it is prone to much higher winds than at the standard 10 metres. But reducing it to standard height, it still would have been Beaufort 12.

sdanseo

Donegal Storm wrote: »

This is the ECMWF chart from last Wednesday when it first picked up on the storm, track and intensity are nearly perfect which for such a complex and unusual system is incredible

And this is the same model for Saturday:

Donegal Storm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

This is the ECMWF chart from last Wednesday when it first picked up on the storm, track and intensity are nearly perfect which for such a complex and unusual system is incredible

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

That was Tim Vasquez, and he meant it in the sense that some meteorologists have become pure pattern readers and the art of applying meteorological knowledge and experience is becoming a thing of the past.

MJohnston

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

Yes, indeed, the models from 3 days out were fantastically accurate, despite a brief flirtation with a more easterly track on Saturday. It's really disappointing to read the attitudes of some in the general Discussion thread who simply won't accept that in hindsight, a countrywide red alert was almost certainly warranted based on both the slight uncertainty in the tracks and the damage done along the actual track.

sdanseo

Just coming back to this one that I mentioned was on the island (in fact, 6.5km offshore).

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919878538664300545

Allowing for the fact that we measure in a 10-minute average and the NHC use 1-minute, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that Ophelia hit us as a Category 2 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone. Joanna was spot on.

Xenji

Its an amazing sight to see how quickly the clouds are swirling about in Castlebar, it has gotten far worse in the last couple of minutes.

Oneiric 3

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

gooner99

Chong wrote: »

I hate to ask but is it done in Dublin or is there a round 2 due?

Must be done, RTE1 have stopped broadcasting it. lol

Gaoth Laidir

A nice water vapour animation of the upper shortwave interacting with Ophelia yesterday and the following track towards Ireland. Note how the timing of the upper shortwave was just bang on. Right place, right time!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=16kmgwvp&storm_identifier=AL172017&starting_image=2017AL17_16KMGWVP_201710150015.GIF&ending_image=2017AL17_16KMGWVP_201710161515.GIF

Xenji

rustynutz wrote: »

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Nothing yet that we are not used to, rain has been more of an issue, but the gusts have been increasing in the last half an hour, this is inline with what Met Eireann forecast.

Gaoth Laidir

Wombatman wrote: »

17.8 meters at 15:00 UTC :eek:

Last I saw Kinsale Energy had reported a 26-metre wave earlier this afteroon.

Oneiric 3

Nothing to be concerned about yet but this is what the GFS is showing for this coming Friday..

happyoutscan

rustynutz wrote: »

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Picking up in Westport but not too extreme yet.

Chong

I hate to ask but is it done in Dublin or is there a round 2 due?

rustynutz

I'm in north west mayo and I haven't witnessed winds higher than the usual storms we have at this time of year, am I alone in this or has the worst yet to hit here?

Doltanian

Huge winds here in Kerry again, worst since before 12 noon.