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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Donegal Storm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think when all is said and done, the weather models, despite run on run variation, have done a sterling job in handling today's situation well in advance. Without them, there could have been greater loss of life (which is little comfort to those who lost loved ones today). I read once a prominent meteorologist claimed that computer models were the 'cancer of meteorology', but no, they really are not. Anyone who would hold such a view is someone who really doesn't get what they achieve.

This is the ECMWF chart from last Wednesday when it first picked up on the storm, track and intensity are nearly perfect which for such a complex and unusual system is incredible

sdanseo

Donegal Storm wrote: »

This is the ECMWF chart from last Wednesday when it first picked up on the storm, track and intensity are nearly perfect which for such a complex and unusual system is incredible

And this is the same model for Saturday:

Gaoth Laidir

sdanseo wrote: »

Just coming back to this one that I mentioned was on the island (in fact, 6.5km offshore).

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919878538664300545

Allowing for the fact that we measure in a 10-minute average and the NHC use 1-minute, I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say that Ophelia hit us as a Category 2 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone. Joanna was spot on.

Well the lighthous is 54 metres above water so, like Kinsale Energy, it is prone to much higher winds than at the standard 10 metres. But reducing it to standard height, it still would have been Beaufort 12.

Malayalam

sdanseo wrote: »

And this is the same model for Saturday:

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

TomOnBoard

I wonder does Ventusky adjust its reporting based on actual data feeds or is it based on a particular set of model projections that are loaded in advance?

sdanseo

Malayalam wrote: »

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

The same forecast model that accurately predicted this one is predicting similar next week.

The chances of it being right twice in a row are surely hundreds to one. But worth watching.

Villain

Amazing Sat image

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/919966143623974912

JCX BXC

Mean speed of 17kts now at Dublin airport, it's windier here in West Clare!

511

Malayalam wrote: »

Are you saying another Hurricane is coming next weekend?

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

sdanseo

511 wrote: »

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

It was an extratropical storm with at least Category One Hurricane force max winds. Every Met/RTÉ forecast for the last 24hrs has made this distinction, that it was not the tail end of a hurricane, it WAS a hurricane.

All but the very last NHC advisory this morning classified it as a Hurricane.

Technical nomenclature made small difference to those on the ground.

piplip87

Thanks a million guys. All your graphs, charts and MT's excellent forecasts all week have helped me out big time. We did not get as strong I thought here in Cavan. Still the early warning was invaluable regarding getting the yard all tied down.

Still fairly windy in Virginia. Wind not as strong but still quite gusty.

Nettle Soup

511 wrote: »

There won't be another hurricane next weekend. Even this storm wasn't a hurricane by the time it hit Ireland.

Is there a major storm coming on October 21st?

Wanderer78

Nettle Soup wrote: »

Is there a major storm coming on October 21st?

its on some of the models alright, earlier days yet, but may not be as bad as today

kadman

Thanks for sharing your expertise folks

Lissavane

kadman wrote: »

Thanks for sharing your expertise folks

Yes. It was most useful. Thank you all. Will be interesting to compare this event with Debbie.

Gaoth Laidir

A nice Day/Night satellite image of Ophelia at 0247Z this morning (just visible in the top left). Look a the wildfires raging in Portugal and Galicia.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

La.de.da wrote: »

That was an interesting and scary day. Winds I've never experienced before here in Tipperary.

Lots of damage and debris around. Power just back on now.

Thanks a lot to all the contributors, ye have been a great help.

Yes it has been quiet interesting and informal not just today but over the past couple of days. I have been a lurker but I must say I have learned a lot about weather charts and how mother nature can throw up once in a lifetime weather events like the the one we witnessed today. I too would like to thank all the contributors who gave up their time and expertise to inform us all of how big this event has turned out to be.

Gaoth Laidir

A nice warm image of the circulation now.

20171016.1715.msg3.x.wv1km.17LOPHELIA.70kts-969mb-498N-127W.100pc.jpg

Malayalam

Just leaving a note of sincere gratitude (even if it will be deleted as not being technical). Thank you all ... signing out from cyber storm chasing!

Mrsweasley

emmetkenny wrote: »

I'm in Enniscorthy in Wexford and in the last 40 minutes the wind seems to have really stepped it up a notch.

Is this caused by the shift in the wind direction?

It seems to be getting even stronger now than it was at 12.30

Oneiric 3

Lissavane wrote: »

Yes. It was most useful. Will be interesting to compare this event with Debbie.

I don't think it compares at all, though I haven't seen much wind data for today, but at guess, I think Debbie's legacy remains well and truly unchallenged at this point.

Gaoth Laidir

Have to hand it to Joanna, she's played a blinder. Very informative broadcasts over the past few days, and went to the trouble of putting up this extra technical information broadcast on the website earlier today, explaining the process of extratropical transition and lots else.

https://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/weather-special-30003671/10790153/

Oneiric 3

One for the weather forum archives.

Tefral

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One for the weather forum archives.

There was 3092 on it this morning

sdanseo

Very odd. UKMO have released a video of tomorrow's weather forecast. (As in, broadcast tomorrow, dated tomorrow)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC-Xg_q05iM

DOCARCH

Tefral wrote: »

There was 3092 on it this morning

Over 5,000 at one stage this afternoon!

Donegal Storm

Tefral wrote: »

There was 3092 on it this morning

I saw over 5000 on after the 9.30 forecast last night, probably the most since December 2010

Also a big thanks to meteorite, lumi and Docarch as well for keeping things running smoothly, must have been a crazy couple of days trying to keep on top of things with people constantly posting in the wrong threads and the forum playing up!

Oneiric 3

So 'only' 1743 on now. Small fry I guess compared the usual 2 or 3 most times I pay a visit to see who might be getting a bit of drizzle.

DOCARCH

Donegal Storm wrote: »

....trying....

Key word, in a number of ways!

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Have to hand it to Joanna, she's played a blinder. Very informative broadcasts over the past few days, and went to the trouble of putting up this extra technical information broadcast on the website earlier today, explaining the process of extratropical transition and lots else.

https://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/weather-special-30003671/10790153/

I agree i really like the way Joanna handled her broadcasts over the past few days. She always goes into great detail and simplifies the charts in a way the ordinary Joe soap can understand. Well done Joanna.