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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Sting jets usually occur on the S/SW side of storm lows if there is a significant injection of dry air being drawn in. Don' have access to satellite imagry but going by forecast track of low, western/NW counties would be most at risk if a SJ was to occur, but low chance of it happening to be honest.

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

Donegal Storm

71kts max at 11am, still nothing more than a typical storm. Should peak in the next couple of hours on the south coast.

No reports from Sherkin..

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

I'm no expert Nacho, but I think you would the need the storm centre to interact with some deep dry, polar air, which I don't think is happening with this one at the moment (yet at least). I am open to being corrected on this.

nacho libre

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm no expert Nacho, but I think you would the need the storm centre to interact with some deep dry, polar air, which I don't think is happening with this one at the moment (yet at least). I am open to being corrected on this.

Ah ok. Thanks for the explanation Oneiric 3:)

Comhrá

nacho libre wrote: »

Why is that? Is it because it's an ex hurricane and the track of the system, that it can't interact with the jet in that way.

Gaoth Laidir

I think there is some type of sting jet occuring now.

This satellite image shows cloud top heights in colours. The bright blue spiral to the south is around 8 km height, but we can see the colour change to orange as it spirals around the east and north of the storm. By the time it reaches the southern centre of it it's down to orange (1000 m), so in effect the high cloud has spiralled downwards into the centre, dissipating the cloud as it does so.

It is best seen in this animation (live animation, so will change with time).

Click the image for the hi res version.

Oscar Bravo

star gazer

Robxxx7

Mid Kerry
from my weather station

wxStationGraphAll?day=16&year=2017&month=10&ID=ICOKERRY3&width=700&showsolarradiation=0&showuv=0&showtemp=1&showpressure=1&showwind=1&showwinddir=1&showrain=1&type=type=3

wxStationGraphAll?day=16&year=2017&month=10&ID=ICOKERRY3&width=700&showsolarradiation=0&showuv=0&showtemp=1&showpressure=1&showwind=1&showwinddir=1&showrain=1&type=type=3

[Deleted User]

star gazer wrote: »

Great image. I know its extratropical now, but it seems to resemble those radar images from Miami etc you see when a hurricane eye and the surrounding bands move through.

crushproof

Fastnet Lighthouse‏ [ltr]@FastnetLHouse[/ltr] 5m5 minutes ago
More

Avg Wind:82kts, Gust:101kts, Wind Dir:220 °(SW), Gust Dir:222 °(SW) at 16/10/2017 11:50:00

Cantona's Collars

That sting jet that Gaoth Laidir spoke of looks to be going to impact the SE of the country.
Literally in the last 5 minutes,winds have increased enormously in the SE.

Oneiric 3

WV at 9z

M.T. Cranium

K1 buoy had maximum 3h pressure rise of 25 mb after passage of low, an extreme value indeed.

May indicate potential for stronger gusts after low passes on west coast, Tralee to Galway Bay, next 3-4 hours.

Clare generally at risk of damaging gusts from WSW during this phase (1400h).

JCX BXC

Cork airport, no gust but mean speed for 43kts in the 12pm METAR

Oneiric 3

Wider perspective as of 10z. Looks almost Darwinian:

patneve2

Storm has a well-defined eye now as per latest sat

https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

gozunda

Barometer reading 967 hpa and dropping

Sustained winds averaging 55 km/ h

East Limerick / cork border

JCX BXC

Bad gusts in West Clare now.

12pm TAF issued, Dublin now expecting a max gust of 57kts (Was 55), Cork now expecting 74kts (Was 70), Knock expecting 58kts (was 60).

highdef

Looks like a clear has developed in the eye???

Oneiric 3

JCX BXC wrote: »

Knock expecting 58kts (was 60).

Divil a difference tbh.

Gaoth Laidir

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919883222921678848

DOCARCH

Highest gust on 1200 report is 84kn at Roches Point....that's 156kmh!

Sherkin Island is not reporting!

Donegal Storm

Is Sherkin Island offline for this? Looks like the strongest winds are right into the island but no reports from the station

MJohnston

M3 buoy seems to be dropping in pressure again:

As an aside - ESB's Powercheck map service has failed because they have exceeded their Google Maps API rate limit.

DOCARCH

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Is Sherkin Island offline for this? Looks like the strongest winds are right into the island but no reports from the station

Was reporting earlier....probably broke!

M.T. Cranium

M3 buoy reports = bad data since 10:00 (09z)

disregard until fixed

Donegal Storm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Was reporting earlier....probably broke!

Hopefully its still recording, if the map in GL's post is accurate then its probably above 90kts

150,000 without power now according to RTE and two people seriously injured in Waterford by a tree falling on their car

DOCARCH

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Hopefully its still recording, if the map in GL's post is accurate then its probably above 90kts

Hopefully. Possibly just communications down.

Xenji

Sherkin with a max gust of 137 km/hr as per the current live forecast, so she is still alive.