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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Supercell

Does anyone know if wind return periods are available online, would like to get some context in Ophelia's wind reports? I can see that rainfall returns are publically available on http://www.met.ie/climate/products03.asp but no mention of wind returns.

Oneiric 3

Does anybody have a link to the Met Eireann marine analysis page (which shows hi res map) as can't seem to find it here on search. Cheers.

Meteorite58

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Does anybody have a link to the Met Eireann marine analysis page (which shows hi res map) as can't seem to find it here on search. Cheers.

http://www.met.ie/marine/marine_map.asp

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Does anybody have a link to the Met Eireann marine analysis page (which shows hi res map) as can't seem to find it here on search. Cheers.

https://www.met.ie/latest/marine-analysis.asp

Donegal Storm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think the anemometer is at about 100 metres as this is where helicopters land but they do have wave sensors too.

From Kinsale-energy.ie...

Doesn't that suggest that its significantly less than 100m? The base is on the sea bed surely with the blue shading indicating water level?

Oneiric 3

Ta muchly boys.

Oscar Bravo

The Nutty M

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think the anemometer is at about 100 metres as this is where helicopters land but they do have wave sensors too.

From Kinsale-energy.ie...

What you are looking at in that picture of 158metres height is the height of both the jacket and topside. It sits in 100 metres of water. That's a small platform by comparison to modern platforms.
For reference, the main components of the WMS on Clair Ridge (West of Shetland) sits on the cellar deck at 43metres ASL There are anemometers on each of the 3 cranes up to 79metres but these are not fed into the WMS.

Gaoth Laidir

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Doesn't that suggest that its significantly less than 100m? The base is on the sea bed surely with the blue shading indicating water level?

The top of that mast is 158 m, so I reckon the helipad is at least 100 metres.

Hammer Archer

Fastnet lighthouse now reporting winds of 72kts with gusts of 91kts.

Gaoth Laidir

The Nutty M wrote: »

What you are looking at in that picture of 158metres height is the height of both the jacket and topside. It sits in 100 metres of water. That's a small platform by comparison to modern platforms.
For reference, the main components of the WMS on Clair Ridge (West of Shetland) sits on the cellar deck at 43metres ASL There are anemometers on each of the 3 cranes up to 79metres but these are not fed into the WMS.

Ah, I see it now. That light blue surface is the water surface. So the anemometer is probably 30 metres above the surface.

TomOnBoard

Met Eireann Wind Map for today seems to be showing lower wind speeds than they were showing yesterday, when there were two arrows in the South and South West showing 100.

Am I wrong to think that things will be a bit easier (albeit dangerous) than thought yesterday?

Gaoth Laidir

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Doesn't that suggest that its significantly less than 100m? The base is on the sea bed surely with the blue shading indicating water level?

Sorry, you're right.

MJohnston

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The top of that mast is 158 m, so I reckon the helipad is at least 100 metres.

If Cork County Hall is supposed to be a scale comparison, then there’s no chance the helipad is at 100m, as the buidling is 67m yet indicated as still being below the sea level. The math doesn’t work out!

DOCARCH

65kn (gust) at Roches Point at 1000.

Larbre34

10.00am station reports are in. 65 at Roche's P and 63 and Sherkin. S/SE Pressure btwn 980 and 990 hPa

um7y1h83ge06nx

Winds of 148kph recorded at Fastnet.

star gazer

Roches point wind 42 knots gusting 65 knots
Cork Airport 31 knots gusting 53
Latest weather reports from met eireann here

Buoy reports
Roughly: M3 south west coast, M5 South East, M1 West

Met E rainfall radar

MJohnston

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Met Eireann Wind Map for today seems to be showing lower wind speeds than they were showing yesterday, when there were two arrows in the South and South West showing 100.

Am I wrong to think that things will be a bit easier (albeit dangerous) than thought yesterday?

I would say that map is deeply imprecise - when is “today”? Are they displaying a daily average, or peak winds?

Gaoth Laidir

Another view of Kinsale platform, which shows the helipad about 40 metres above the surface.

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

M3 latest hourly observations down to 976.4mb (from 980), wind speed largely the same at 40G53 (up from 39G49), significant wave heights up quite a bit to 5.47m (from 4.06m)

Centre would appear to have passed M3 now, it’s reporting 992.2mb, 41G56kts, 6.7m wave heights.

mayo.mick

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919854559132037120

Donegal Storm

MJohnston wrote: »

I would say that map is deeply imprecise - when is “today”? Are they displaying a daily average, or peak winds?

I've never understood how those maps work, same with the summary ones at the end of the forecast on RTE, they never seem to match up with anything

Not sure if it was posted earlier but there's a live stream from Cork here, doesn't seem very stable and its got some awful music going on but should give a good idea of what its like down there! Just looks like a stiff breeze there so far..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UuI1b4h3ds

[Deleted User]

Visible image at 10 am.

Gaoth Laidir

Live map of conditions on Kinsale Platform.

https://www.fugroweather.com/WeatherMonitor.Net/Displays/KinsaleEnergy/C20236/WIND_TS.aspx

So the station pressure (QFE) is currently 987.9 hPa and the surface pressure (QNH) is 992.2. Given a conversion of around 8 metres per hPa that gives a station height of about 34 metres.

JCX BXC

Cork airport reporting 67kts (124km/h) earlier than forecast.

Getting very windy here in West Clare.

TomOnBoard

MJohnston wrote: »

I would say that map is deeply imprecise - when is “today”? Are they displaying a daily average, or peak winds?

The point is that the same map in respect of Monday 16th October that was published yesterday, showed much higher values on the wind arrows. I assume that its level of precision hasn't changed. Some of us do rely on ME products to help us organise our outdoor activities, and a chart that showed 100 yesterday in Cork and shows 70 today surely tells us that a lessening of wind strength is now forecast compared to yesterday.

magicbastarder

mayo.mick wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FastnetLHouse/status/919854559132037120

not too far off the national record, set in 61.

Gaoth Laidir

Kinsale platform live data

yannakis

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Live map of conditions on Kinsale Platform.

https://www.fugroweather.com/WeatherMonitor.Net/Displays/KinsaleEnergy/C20236/WIND_TS.aspx

..wind is off the chart with max set at (default) 50 Knots!!