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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Meteorite58

NOAA

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919751919576469504

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/919719079107268609

Meteorite58

Gusts

yop

Gust hit castlebar. Woke me there. Not massive strong

Sephiroth_dude

stevenup7002 wrote: »

Wind has picked up in Clonmel over the past 30 minutes. About the same as your average windy night at the moment, with some sudden strong gusts.

EDIT: This is getting noticeably worse by the minute. 10 minutes later and we're into "bad windy night" territory. Hard downpours that last for about 10 seconds and then suddenly stop.

Same down here, nó rain though yet from what I can hear.

ps200306

Just in case anyone is being misled by the sat24.com IR pictures into thinking this has gone much further west:

The perspective in that image is seriously skewed -- you need to rotate it around 45 degrees counterclockwise. For reference, look at the eastern edge of Iceland ... that's supposed to be 3 degrees *WEST* of the westernmost Dingle peninsula. Turn the screen the right way and Ophelia's northerly track has it barrelling straight at us. :eek:

Meteorite58

Netweather

XQPOXai.png?1

JCX BXC

Ah lads here go to sleep for an hour! Just woke up for a quick status check.
6am TAF's issued, mainly upgrades. Somewhat concerning.

Cork Max gust now 75kts

Dublin Max gust now 55kts

Knock Max gust now 60kts

And to add to this list

Kerry Expecting max gust of 70kts, temporarily active between 11am-1pm TEMPO 1610/1612 14045G70KT

Waterford Expecting max gust of 75kts, temporarily between 1pm-4pm TEMPO 1612/1615 20050G75KT

Looks very concerning for those on the South Coast, especially as TAF's have upgraded further, stay safe everyone today.

I'm back to sleep for a while, good luck!

DOCARCH

Nod Note: This thread is just for technical discussion. A lot of posts moved to http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057797471

Meteorite58

ICON 03Z ( probably overestimates speeds a bit more than the other models ? , we will see )

Hastentoadd

Meteorite, what you show would suggest that this storm will miss on the West?

Meteorite58

Fair few sferics showing up off the coasts

WclAcYK.png?1

George Sunsnow

Nhc Florida has just said worst will be Galway to Sligo
Storm is further west-RTÉ Morning Ireland

Esel

Hastentoadd wrote: »

Meteorite, what you show would suggest that this storm will miss on the West?

See the white, purple and red in the post above yours?

Rikand

Hastentoadd wrote: »

Meteorite, what you show would suggest that this storm will miss on the West?

The eye of the storm. Not the storm itself

Meteorite58

Hastentoadd wrote: »

Meteorite, what you show would suggest that this storm will miss on the West?

I think if you go back a few pages and look at the various models, there is slight variances. In general I would think it wont miss, maybe not as bad as the SW, S and SE but treat it as a Red warning. This as they have said is unprecedented.

Gaoth Laidir

This was the wind analysis at 4 am. I'm not sure if it's valid for extratropical systems as it works on the reduction of 700 hPa winds, which may not apply in this case. In any case it showing max winds 79 knots to the ENE.

Meteorite58

GFS 0Z

Mean

NPVyS32.gif?1

850hpa

Meteorite58

Barometer / Temp Readings Tralee

SPEKudp.png?1

flaneur

Bear in mind hurricane describes a very specific type of storm. This may no longer meet those technical criteria but it does not mean that it’s not a very powerful system.

flaneur

Are all the models beginning to ageee on the westerly shift or is it all a little speculative ?

DOCARCH

Highest gust for 0600 reports was 44kn at Valentia, and, for 0700 reports is 47kn at Sherkin.

Meteorite58

Mod Note

This thread is for technical analysis only please - there’s a general discussion thread available for everything else

Thanks

lucernarian

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/satellite.php

This one is easier to see the storm momentum from, but as I said earlier looking at the infrared imagery can be deceptive. Nonetheless it seems like a slightly westerly wobble happened last night and I'd expect a slightly bigger hit on the western side of the country than I had expected yesterday.

There's been some eejits thinking that the storm is meaningfully missing Ireland when the winds from this will be severe throughout the south even still. When it does make it to Ireland, the observations will paint a detailed picture of what exactly it will do. Hopefully not as bad as feared or predicted.

Edit: basically this event is going to happen and it will be bad, and it's the technical thread so can we cut out the "what about me and my random question" stuff?

Gaoth Laidir

Again, not sure if the windspeeds in this latest analysis at 7 am are accurate (77 knots). It doesn't even state a radius for the 34-knot winds but at least it shows where the centre is now (50.8N 11.5W, about 200 km southwest of Kerry).

Akrasia

The winds are strongest to the east and south of the eye, and the rain is worse on the west, so if it has shifted west, this should reduce rainfall but increase the storm surge on the west coast.

REBELSAFC

How accurate/reliable is ventusky? This chart looks very worrying with gusts over 170kmph for this afternoon.

Gaoth Laidir

Joanna Donnelly on radio now just mentioned gusts >150 kph and a possible sting jet later